Tag: North Korea
Fizzle
Donald Trump last night in Tulsa tried to excite his extremist base with a lot of red meat about Democratic radicals, denunciations of burning of the American flag and toppling of statues, suggestions that less testing for Covid-19 would reduce attention to it, and blatant racism. I suppose the crowd liked it, but the arena was half empty and not even his enthusiasts were enthused.
Trump can no longer hide his failures. Covid-19 is growing exponentially in states that he owns. The economy is still moribund, despite a dip in unemployment claims. Most Americans support Black Lives Matter and other “radicals” whom Trump deplores. Trump’s base, which is the only part of the population he cares about, is clearly in the minority, making voter suppression a vital part of his re-election strategy. States run the presidential election, so Republican-led states are aggressively purging voter rolls, reducing the number of polling places, and limiting mail-in ballots.
Trump is however still trying to hide his personal malfeasance and the misdeeds of his pals. That is the short version of why he fired the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) this week. But he did it so sloppily that he is ending up with the career deputy acting in the position, instead of the toady he wanted. That is a great good fortune. SDNY is notoriously independent and likely has the goods on Rudy Giuliani if not on Trump himself, who is reputed to have pressured the prosecutors not to go after a Turkish bank at President Erdogan’s behest.
Trump’s situation is no better abroad. North Korea and Iran continue to defy Trump’s nuclear demands. Both have made significant progress on missiles and nuclear technology in the past 3.5 years. Venezuelan President Maduro remains in office. China is filling the vacuum wherever “make America great again” retreats. Russia has offered Trump nothing for his many efforts to court Putin. The “deal of the century” for the Palestinians has turned into a green light for Israeli annexation of a big chunk of the West Bank. Even that however might not come off, as the Israelis are getting a lot of pressure not to proceed in order to protect their relations with Sunni Arab countries.
The only thing working for Trump right now is Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader. He is proceeding apace with confirmation of unqualified Federal judges Trump dutifully nominates. But they don’t always behave the way McConnell and Trump might like. Despite the Administration’s opposition, the Supreme Court has extended equal protection of the law to LGBTQ people and prevented Trump from reversing the Obama program that protected people brought illegally to the US as children from deportation.
The Trump Administration is still capable of doing astoundingly bad things. But it is losing its grip on the popular imagination of most Americans. Joe Biden, who hasn’t yet been campaigning vigorously, is rising markedly in the polls, including in swing states crucial to Trump. The Electoral College could still save him from defeat, but the odds of that are declining. With four months to go before Americans start to cast their ballots, Trump is fizzling. May it last.
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Stevenson’s army, June 16
[You’re reading, aren’t you? Actually 2 separate topics. Clickbait 101.]
– FT says US is increasingly viewed as unreliable by its Asian allies.
– Japan drops Aegis Ashore missile defense — too expensive, too delayed.
– North Korea blows up liaison office. Some analysis from Daily Beast writer.
-Unintended consequences: Atlantic article tells how “sex” discrimination was added to civil rights act as a poison pill, a joke, that enabled textualist Justice Gorsuch to support gay rights.
– Trump said US troops would leave Germany. Are they going to Poland?
– Dems have good reasons to oppose DOD policy nominee.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks| May 4- May 9
- CSIS Debate Series: Do Human Rights Protections Advance Counter-terrorism Objectives | May 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
Does democracy foster economic growth? Do human rights protections advance counterterrorism objectives? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there generally has been consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
Speakers:
Rashid Abdi: Former Project Director, Horn of Africa, International Crisis Group
Dr. Naunihal Singh: Assistant Professor of National Security, US Naval War College
Colonel (ret.) Chris Wyatt: Director of African Studies, US Army War College
Karen Allen: Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Security Studies (ISS); Former Foreign Correspondent, BBC News
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
- Webinar-Disinformation pandemic: Russian and Chinese information operations in the COVID-19 era| May 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI | Register Here
Was the COVID-19 virus produced in the US? Was it created by the US Army? So Moscow and Beijing would have you believe.
Russia and China aggressively manipulate perceptions to achieve their own aims. Their increasingly aggressive information campaigns are converging in method and narrative. What can the US and its allies — and the average citizen — do to inoculate against these disinformation viruses?
Speakers:
Frederick W. Kagan: Resident Scholar; Director, Critical Threats Project
Dan Blumenthal: Director, Asian Studies; Resident Fellow
Zack Cooper: Research Fellow
- COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Prospects for Iran-GCC Relations | May 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The concurrent crises of COVID-19 and tumbling oil prices are deeply felt across the Gulf region. The U.S.-led sanctions, already a huge burden on Iran’s economy, massively limit Tehran’s foreign trade options and export revenue as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the country’s economic troubles. On the other hand, the energy-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are facing a steep decline in oil and gas export revenues for the foreseeable future. These economic shocks coincide with a sharp and a financially expensive competition for influence across the Middle East.
How might the present deteriorating economic realities impact the geopolitical calculations of Iran, the GCC states, and U.S. interests in the Gulf region? Will the economic downturn shape the willingness of the GCC states to stand with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran leading up to the US elections in November? Is there any opportunity for Iran and the GCC states to consider a reset in relations that have been contentious since 1979. MEI is pleased to host a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Mohammed Baharoon: Director general, B’huth
Dina Esfandiary: Fellow, The Century Foundation
Bilal Saab: Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security program, MEI
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
- Analyzing the Impact of the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign on Iran | May 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the midst of a severe political and economic crisis brought on by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. The regime has called for Washington to lift U.S. sanctions on humanitarian grounds, and significant voices, including from previous administrations, have called for the easing of sanctions on the basis of compassion.
However, the crisis presents the United States with opportunities to increase the pressure not only on the regime, but also on its proxies—Hezbollah first among them. What is the range of policy options toward Iran and Hezbollah that Washington faces? What is the goal of maximum pressure as currently implemented? Should the Trump administration stay the course or consider refining the policy?
Speakers:
David Asher: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Scott Modell: Managing Director, Rapidan Energy Group and former Senior Iran Operations Officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Mohsen Sazegara: President, Research Institute on Contemporary Iran
- Safeguarding Asia’s Most Vulnerable During COVID-19 | May 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
COVID-19 has taken the world by a storm, but none are more deeply affected than the world’s most vulnerable. Refugees and the internally displaced, individuals living under authoritarian regimes, and others living in countries with limited healthcare resources are facing, in some cases, life or death situations. While many countries battling their own domestic fight with COVID-19 are tempted to turn inwards, the U.S. as a global leader in the promotion of freedom has a responsibility to galvanize attention and partnership to ensure that the world’s most needy are receiving the assistance they need during the pandemic. Join us to learn about the unique challenges faced by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the impoverished in North Korea, and the marginalized in China.
Speakers:
Daniel Sullivan: Senior Advocate for Human Rights, Refugees International
Kristina Olney: Director of Government Relations, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Jeongmin Kim: Seoul Correspondent, NK News
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Stevenson’s army, April 21
– NSA O’Brien says US is monitoring reports that Kim jong-un may be gravely ill.
– His death could lead to unrest and fighting.
– Boris Johnson, while still healthy, missed 5 key meetings on the coronavirus.
– In WSJ, NSA O’Brien defends Trump’s actions on the pandemic. What troubles me, however, is that he goes beyond defense and explicitly criticizes the likely Democratic presidential candidate in the process.
– Defense One has a tick-tock on Modly’s dash to Guam.
– Defense News says Esper is studying cutting two aircraft carriers from the Navy.
– And just in time for next week’s discussion of the judicial branch, here’s an article on a big decision yesterday. While the explicit issue before the Supreme Court was whether federal criminal juries had to be unanimous for convictions, the article notes that on a slew of important side questions, the court splintered hopelessly: It split 3–1–1–1–3 on thorny disputes over precedent, constitutional interpretation, the Bill of Rights’ protections for noncitizens, and the contemporary relevance of a law’s racist roots. The justices used Ramos to shadowbox over long-running debates, including abortion.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 10
-CSIS ran a pandemic war game last fall and has lessons applicable to the coronavirus problem.
– Here’s a summary of the law Congress passed last week to respond medically to the coronavirus. The administration is now considering new legislation to respond to the economic effects and looming recession.
-NYT details many of the ways North Korea has evaded sanctions and made money.
– Daily Beast says Taliban leader whom Trump talked to is on targeted kill list.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 2
– The Afghan peace deal may break down over prisoner exchanges.
– The Russo-Turkish understanding over Syria is breaking down. And Greece is sending troops to its border.
– The effort to find a new Iraqi premier has broken down.
-North Korea’s missile test moratorium has ended.
– A federal judge has ruled that Ken Cuccinelli’s acting appoint is illegal under the Vacancy Act — and also that two of his decisions are nullified. That’s a consequence of using Actings improperly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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