Tag: North Korea
Stevenson’s army, June 16
[You’re reading, aren’t you? Actually 2 separate topics. Clickbait 101.]
– FT says US is increasingly viewed as unreliable by its Asian allies.
– Japan drops Aegis Ashore missile defense — too expensive, too delayed.
– North Korea blows up liaison office. Some analysis from Daily Beast writer.
-Unintended consequences: Atlantic article tells how “sex” discrimination was added to civil rights act as a poison pill, a joke, that enabled textualist Justice Gorsuch to support gay rights.
– Trump said US troops would leave Germany. Are they going to Poland?
– Dems have good reasons to oppose DOD policy nominee.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks| May 4- May 9
- CSIS Debate Series: Do Human Rights Protections Advance Counter-terrorism Objectives | May 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
Does democracy foster economic growth? Do human rights protections advance counterterrorism objectives? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there generally has been consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
Speakers:
Rashid Abdi: Former Project Director, Horn of Africa, International Crisis Group
Dr. Naunihal Singh: Assistant Professor of National Security, US Naval War College
Colonel (ret.) Chris Wyatt: Director of African Studies, US Army War College
Karen Allen: Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Security Studies (ISS); Former Foreign Correspondent, BBC News
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
- Webinar-Disinformation pandemic: Russian and Chinese information operations in the COVID-19 era| May 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI | Register Here
Was the COVID-19 virus produced in the US? Was it created by the US Army? So Moscow and Beijing would have you believe.
Russia and China aggressively manipulate perceptions to achieve their own aims. Their increasingly aggressive information campaigns are converging in method and narrative. What can the US and its allies — and the average citizen — do to inoculate against these disinformation viruses?
Speakers:
Frederick W. Kagan: Resident Scholar; Director, Critical Threats Project
Dan Blumenthal: Director, Asian Studies; Resident Fellow
Zack Cooper: Research Fellow
- COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Prospects for Iran-GCC Relations | May 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The concurrent crises of COVID-19 and tumbling oil prices are deeply felt across the Gulf region. The U.S.-led sanctions, already a huge burden on Iran’s economy, massively limit Tehran’s foreign trade options and export revenue as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the country’s economic troubles. On the other hand, the energy-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are facing a steep decline in oil and gas export revenues for the foreseeable future. These economic shocks coincide with a sharp and a financially expensive competition for influence across the Middle East.
How might the present deteriorating economic realities impact the geopolitical calculations of Iran, the GCC states, and U.S. interests in the Gulf region? Will the economic downturn shape the willingness of the GCC states to stand with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran leading up to the US elections in November? Is there any opportunity for Iran and the GCC states to consider a reset in relations that have been contentious since 1979. MEI is pleased to host a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Mohammed Baharoon: Director general, B’huth
Dina Esfandiary: Fellow, The Century Foundation
Bilal Saab: Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security program, MEI
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
- Analyzing the Impact of the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign on Iran | May 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the midst of a severe political and economic crisis brought on by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. The regime has called for Washington to lift U.S. sanctions on humanitarian grounds, and significant voices, including from previous administrations, have called for the easing of sanctions on the basis of compassion.
However, the crisis presents the United States with opportunities to increase the pressure not only on the regime, but also on its proxies—Hezbollah first among them. What is the range of policy options toward Iran and Hezbollah that Washington faces? What is the goal of maximum pressure as currently implemented? Should the Trump administration stay the course or consider refining the policy?
Speakers:
David Asher: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Scott Modell: Managing Director, Rapidan Energy Group and former Senior Iran Operations Officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Mohsen Sazegara: President, Research Institute on Contemporary Iran
- Safeguarding Asia’s Most Vulnerable During COVID-19 | May 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
COVID-19 has taken the world by a storm, but none are more deeply affected than the world’s most vulnerable. Refugees and the internally displaced, individuals living under authoritarian regimes, and others living in countries with limited healthcare resources are facing, in some cases, life or death situations. While many countries battling their own domestic fight with COVID-19 are tempted to turn inwards, the U.S. as a global leader in the promotion of freedom has a responsibility to galvanize attention and partnership to ensure that the world’s most needy are receiving the assistance they need during the pandemic. Join us to learn about the unique challenges faced by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the impoverished in North Korea, and the marginalized in China.
Speakers:
Daniel Sullivan: Senior Advocate for Human Rights, Refugees International
Kristina Olney: Director of Government Relations, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Jeongmin Kim: Seoul Correspondent, NK News
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Stevenson’s army, April 21
– NSA O’Brien says US is monitoring reports that Kim jong-un may be gravely ill.
– His death could lead to unrest and fighting.
– Boris Johnson, while still healthy, missed 5 key meetings on the coronavirus.
– In WSJ, NSA O’Brien defends Trump’s actions on the pandemic. What troubles me, however, is that he goes beyond defense and explicitly criticizes the likely Democratic presidential candidate in the process.
– Defense One has a tick-tock on Modly’s dash to Guam.
– Defense News says Esper is studying cutting two aircraft carriers from the Navy.
– And just in time for next week’s discussion of the judicial branch, here’s an article on a big decision yesterday. While the explicit issue before the Supreme Court was whether federal criminal juries had to be unanimous for convictions, the article notes that on a slew of important side questions, the court splintered hopelessly: It split 3–1–1–1–3 on thorny disputes over precedent, constitutional interpretation, the Bill of Rights’ protections for noncitizens, and the contemporary relevance of a law’s racist roots. The justices used Ramos to shadowbox over long-running debates, including abortion.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 10
-CSIS ran a pandemic war game last fall and has lessons applicable to the coronavirus problem.
– Here’s a summary of the law Congress passed last week to respond medically to the coronavirus. The administration is now considering new legislation to respond to the economic effects and looming recession.
-NYT details many of the ways North Korea has evaded sanctions and made money.
– Daily Beast says Taliban leader whom Trump talked to is on targeted kill list.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 2
– The Afghan peace deal may break down over prisoner exchanges.
– The Russo-Turkish understanding over Syria is breaking down. And Greece is sending troops to its border.
– The effort to find a new Iraqi premier has broken down.
-North Korea’s missile test moratorium has ended.
– A federal judge has ruled that Ken Cuccinelli’s acting appoint is illegal under the Vacancy Act — and also that two of his decisions are nullified. That’s a consequence of using Actings improperly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks|February 2-8
- Syria’s Tragedy, Our Lessons| March 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Middle East Program and Humanitarian Agenda are pleased to host David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss the current crisis in Idlib, the dangerous lessons of war, and how Syria could serve as a model for future conflicts.
Jacob Kurtzer, Interim Director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda, will provide welcome remarks to open the discussion. Mr. Miliband’s keynote address will be followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
David Miliband: President and CEO, International Rescue Committee
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security; Director of the Middle East Program
Jacob Kurtzer: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
- Leveraging a Moment of Change: Pathways to a Sustainable U.S.-Pakistan Relationship | March 3, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has never been easy or stable, and in recent years has come under increasing strain. Yet both countries have a vital stake in the maintenance of a working relationship. Several factors have complicated prospects for bilateral cooperation in the past, leading to a growing strategic divergence in how both countries view one another, and their interests vis-a-vis other regional players. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming in the Pakistan-US relationship has been that both sides have tried to address the issues between them without common frames of reference, resulting in differences of perceptions and policies.
An expert group of academics, policy analysts, and retired government officials have recently convened at the Middle East institute to study the Pakistan-US relationship. The product of their discussions is a paper that explores a range of ideas and concrete proposals designed to move the relationship in a positive and stable direction.
Speakers:
Syed Mohammad Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers| March 4, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for an event with two former North Korean soldiers as they discuss their escapes from the hermit kingdom. U.S. Representative Ted Yoho will present keynote remarks on the need for greater freedom across Asia.
Weeks before critical diplomatic talks between the Trump administration and North Korea commenced, OH Cheong Seong successfully attempted a daring escape within the heavily guarded demilitarized zone. Under gunfire, Seong, a driver in a North Korean military police unit, drove a truck to the border and crossed by foot into South Korea. For the first time in public in the United States, he will discuss his escape and the factors that compelled him to flee.
LEE Unggil, a former solider in North Korea’s 11th Corps Special Forces who escaped while completing university studies, will explain the plight of North Korean soldiers and the motivations for those seeking freedom.
Panelists will give insight into what life is like inside the country and describe why so many North Koreans, if given the choice, would choose freedom.
Speakers:
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Colonel Steve Lee, U.S. Army (Ret.): Senior Vice President, Korea Defense Veterans Associations
OH Cheong Song: Former Driver in the North Korean Panmunjom Military Police Unit of the Operations Bureau
LEE Unggil: Former Member of the North Korean People’s Army 11th Corps Special Forces and Member of the North Korean People’s Liberation Front
Congressman Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative, Florida’s 3rd District, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation
- The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security| March 4, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
On January 8, President Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on U.S. positions in Iraq. Buried in his speech was a fascinating aside. The president argued that:
“…America has achieved energy independence … these historic accomplishments changed our strategic priorities … we are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil.”
Yet the Trump administration’s own policies in the region contradict his statement. Since 2016, the United States has doubled down on its military presence in the Middle East, adding more than 14,000 troops to a region already full of U.S. bases. And the Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran that uses oil-focused sanctions in an attempt to weaken Iran’s regional influence and perhaps even topple the regime.
The Iran crisis thus highlights the changing relationship between U.S. foreign policy and global oil markets. If — as the president suggests — the United States is indeed energy independent, why have our strategic priorities not changed? Why do we remain overcommitted to the Middle East? And what can sanctions on Iran tell us about the increasing weaponization of global markets by U.S. policymakers?
Speakers:
Rosemary Kelanic: Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Ellan Wald: President, Transversal Consulting
Joshua Rovner: Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University
Emma Ashford: Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- Why Should the US Care about Ukraine | March 4, 2020 | 2:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Throughout the recent impeachment hearings, witness after witness claimed that support for Ukraine is obviously in US national interests, without clearly explaining why. In response, on December 22, 2019, The National Interest published an article by George Beebe in which he compared current US policy toward Ukraine to the “groupthink” that led to disastrous US policies in Vietnam. Ambassador John Herbst responded to Beebe, arguing that the United States has vital strategic interests in maintaining a strong partnership with Ukraine.
For the first time, Ambassador John Herbst and Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, face off against George Beebe, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for National Interest, and Dr. Will Ruger, Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute and Vice President for Research, Charles Koch Foundation, in a debate. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest, will co-moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Ambassador John E. Herbst: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine; Director of Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Alina Polyakova: President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
George Beebe: Vice President ad Director of Studies, Center for National Interest
Dr. Will Ruger: Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute
- The Outlook on US-China Relations| March 4, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University SAIS | Register Here
This panel discussion will examine American policy, trade, Taiwan, and other key factors affecting the US-China relations.
Speakers:
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: Former U.S. Ambassador to China (1991-1995), USCPF Board Member
Ambassador Craig Allen: President, US-China Business Council, Former U.S. Ambassador to Brunei (2014-2018)
Robert Sutter: Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliott School, GWU
David J. Keegan: Former Deputy Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Former Director, Office of Taiwan Policy, Bureau of Eastern Asian and Pacific Affairs
- US-Brazil Economic Relations: The Path to A Trade Agreement | March 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM -12:00 PM| Atlantic Council | Register Here
The United States and Brazil have long been critical commercial partners. Now, as the United States and Brazil double down on delivering on a stronger bilateral agenda, the moment is ripe to help guide discussions on practical next steps.
What actions can Brazil and the US pursue in the short term to achieve deeper collaboration? How will those pave the way for greater growth and prosperity in both countries?
The event will also mark the launch of the report “US-Brazil Trade and FDI: Enhancing the Bilateral Economic Relationship,” authored by Ken Hyatt and Lisa Schineller on the US side and Abrão Neto and Daniel Godinho on the Brazil side.
Speakers:
The Hon. Darin Lahood: US Representative (R-IL), US Congress
Sergio Segovia: President, Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil
Nestor Forster: Appointed Ambassador of Brazil to the US
Joe Semsar: Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva: Secretary of Bilateral and Regional Negotiations in the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil
Maria Cameron: Deputy Director, Office of Latin America and the Caribbean, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Kevin O’Reilly: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State
Lisa Schroeter: Global Director of Trade & Investment Policy, Dow Chemical Company
Lisa Schineller: Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Abrão Neto: Executive Vice President, AmCham Brasil; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Kenneth Hyatt: Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former Acting Under Secretary and Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce
Jason Marczak: Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Roberta Braga: Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
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