Tag: North Korea
Impeachment day
The US House of Representatives will impeach President Trump today, or if the debate goes too long maybe tomorrow. The charges are clear: abuse of power and obstructing Congress. The evidence is overwhelming and uncontested: using his personal lawyer, Trump used US government assets to further his personal electoral interests by trying to get Ukraine to investigate a political rival and ordered Administration officials not to cooperate with the impeachment process.
The outcome of the trial in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required, is just as clear. Virtually all of the 53 Republicans are so far determined to vote against removing the President from office. It is not even clear that the Senate will permit a serious trial with witnesses. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has announced that he is not impartial, despite Senate rules that require he swear an oath or affirm that
in all things appertaining to the trial of Donald J. Trump, now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws, so help me God.
Clearly, McConnell should not be voting on impeachment when it is taken up in the Senate in January, nor should he be deciding what the procedure there will be.
Meanwhile, President Trump has sent what can only be termed a nutty letter to Speaker of the House Pelosi objecting to the impeachment proceedings in stentorian tones. The letter itself could be the basis for an article of impeachment, as it fails to acknowledge the House’s constitutional authority to conduct the impeachment process. It thus confirms that the President is attempting to obstruct Congress in fulfilling its responsibilities.
It is still unclear what the political consequences of this impeachment will be. Those who hoped impeachment would tame Trump have already been proved wrong. But despite the partisan divide, the House has been able to proceed with budget bills containing lots of controversial measures. Those are expected to be approved in the Senate by Friday, when otherwise the US Government will again have to go through the ridiculous process of shutting down.
Both Democrats and Republicans seem concerned that they demonstrate some tangible progress on issues that matter to Americans (family leave, health care, gun research) even while conducting a dialogue of the deaf on impeachment. That is good news on the domestic front, at least for now.
More important is how impeachment, followed by “acquittal” in the Senate, will affect turnout and voting in the November 2020 election, when all of the House, one-third of the Senate, and the White House will be on the ballot. It certainly didn’t help the Democrats when Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 but not removed from office. But those were different times. So far impeachment has done little to damage Trump’s support with those who approve of his performance as President.
How will impeachment affect the President, especially his foreign policy moves? My best guess is that he will become anxious to show some results even if he does not moderate his language or behavior. He has already reached a truce in the trade war with the Chinese, giving Beijing more than he got. He has also ordered a partial withdrawal from Afghanistan, despite the failure to reach an agreement with the Taliban. He will likely also cave to North Korea, which has turned belligerent towards its erstwhile lover. Trump has nothing to show for his erratic Russophilia and his hostility towards friends, allies, and democracies. Making America Grate Again is not, it turns out, a way to serve the national interest.
But the biggest factor affecting Trump’s electoral prospects is the economy. It is already slowing, and Boeing’s 737 Max problems will slow it further. Watch that space: an end to the longest US expansion ever would imperil Trump more than impeachment.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 9
– China has ordered no foreign computers or software after 2022.
– US strangles WTO.
– North Korea lambastes Trump.
-WaPo details how Democrats leveraged Space Force for parental leave.
– WaPo publishes formerly secret documents showing misleading statements about Afghan war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army December 5 and 6
December 6
– DIA has done a big unclassified report on Iran’s military power.
– A law firm has done a good summary of recent sanctions policy.
– FP says State is excluding officials from information on senior officials’ phone calls.
-David Ignatius says State blocked a contract to train Saudi intelligence.
December 5
Something’s going on. I don’t know whether there has been a genuine increase in the threat from Iran or whether the administration is creating a pretext for military action in the region. Here are the dots that seem to connect: US officials are now revealing that Iran has secretly moved short range ballistic missiles into Iraq. Despite public denials, Pentagon reporters hear that the military wants to send an additional 14,000 US troops to the Middle East [but no details on location or types]. SecState Pompeo had an urgently scheduled meeting with IsraeliPM Netanyahu, where the key topic was said to be Iran. Under Secretary Rood made an even more explicit warning of Iranian military action.
Meanwhile, a former senior intelligence official says Trump often disputes what IC briefers tell him.
Kim Jong-un also seems to be ratcheting up his threats to change policy at the New Year.
Reuters says Jared Kushner is now playing a big role in China trade talks.
NYT study says US cluster munitions have caused many US friendly fire deaths.
A Syracuse professor burns a straw man in a WSJ op-ed. He decries any value in the “interagency process” because the president is in charge of foreign policy. Of course the president is the ultimate authority. But wise and successful presidents over the years have used the process to vet and revise their policies, and to implement them. Many of Trump’s setbacks have come precisely because he acted impulsively or ignorance of contextual details. [See, I don’t only send things I agree with.]
As an example of this process internationally, look at the detailed official statement from the NATO summit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 30
– What will happen when North Korea’s end-of-year deadline for talks expires?
-Is the Taliban really ready for concessions and especially a cease-fire?
– Who will take over In Iraq, now that the prime minister has resigned under pressure from the Grand Ayatollah?
– How significant is China’s threat to Australia?
– Who cares if the House has passed over 400 bills if few have been taken up in the Senate?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
QED quid pro quo
US Ambassador to the European Union confirmed to the House of Representatives under oath today that he was acting on instructions from President Trump with the knowledge of the National Security Council and the State Department in demanding that Ukraine initiate investigations of former Vice President Biden and his son in exchange for already appropriated military aid. This is corrupt abuse of power: using US government assets to extort and bribe a foreign sovereign into providing assistance to President Trump’s re-election efforts.
Or more simply: it proves that President Trump ordered Sondland to pursue a corrupt purpose.
That this behavior is impeachable is beyond doubt. It is precisely the kind of behavior the US Constitution envisages as justifying not only investigation but also impeachment, followed by trial in the Senate.
There’s the rub. The Senate would have to vote by a two-thirds majority to remove Trump from office. There is no sign yet that the 20 Republicans needed to vote against him are likely to be available.
Any normal president would be chastened by today’s testimony and the impeachment that will follow, even if he were confident of winning the vote in the Senate. That won’t be Trump’s reaction. He will unleash a torrent of attacks against witnesses (especially those who are women), Democrats, and the world for treating him worse than has ever been treated before. This hyperbole feeds Fox News commentary and mobilizes his base, which not only believes what he says but is deaf to factual refutation.
Only when the country starts turning against Trump will the Senate Republicans find their courage. If they conclude they are going down with him, they will shift towards approving his removal from office. There is no evidence yet of that. The White House is doing everything it can to ensure that the shift doesn’t begin, because once it does they fear an avalanche. Senators are being threatened with primary fights and cajoled with every means available.
Meanwhile the nation’s foreign policy is mostly on neglectful autopilot, which may be the best we can hope for. There are no signs of real movement toward US objectives in North Korea, Venezuela, or Iran, all Trump Administration priorities. Russian military operations contrary to US interests continue in Ukraine and in Syria. The trade war with China continues to slow world and US economic growth.
Only on Israel has the Administration moved the ball lately, in the wrong direction: Secretary Pompeo has reversed US policy on West Bank settlements, claiming they are not inconsistent with international law. That is patent nonsense intended to feed another bone to Trump’s evangelical supporters, who like Greater Israel. The Administration has in practice abandoned the two-state solution, setting up the Palestinians either to struggle to restore or to claim equal rights within Greater Israel, where they would constitute a majority. No one who supports Israel should want either of those things to happen.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 15
– The US wants South Korea to pay 500% more for US troop deployments.
– North Korea issued a warning to US. Here’s the detailed statement.
– NYT lists disagreements between Trump and US military.
– Here’s more from Senators in the meeting with Erdogan.
-LA Times notes a nuclear problem in the Pacific.
–Legal background on executive privilege.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
