Tag: North Korea
The end is nigh 2019
Except for my 401k, the teens have not been a great decade. We’ve watched the Arab spring turn into the Arab civil wars, Russia reassert itself annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine, China increase its overt and covert challenges to the US, and North Korea defy American efforts to limit or eliminate its nuclear and missile programs. The US has initiated trade wars, withdrawn from international commitments (including the Paris climate change accord as well as the Iran nuclear deal and the intermediate nuclear forces agreement), and abandoned its support for democracy and rule of law, not only but importantly in Israel and Palestine.
Several of these developments could worsen in 2020. The Iran/US tit-for-tat is more likely to escalate than de-escalate. Some Arab civil wars like Yemen and Syria are burning out, but others are spreading beyond the Arab world, with Turkey intervening in Syria and Libya, Russia and Egypt in Libya, and Iran in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Russia is not advancing in Ukraine, but it seems disinclined to withdraw via the Minsk II agreement that would re-establish Ukraine’s control over its southeastern border with Russia and allow a significant degree of autonomy for Luhansk and Donetsk. China and the US have reached a limited and partial agreement on trade, but no more comprehensive accord is in sight. North Korea is bound to test more missiles, if not nuclear weapons.
US mistakes are especially concerning. The withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has freed Iran to begin to violate its provisions, accelerating the date at which Tehran will have all the technology it needs to make nuclear weapons. Global warming is accelerating and the arms race with Russia is quickening. NATO is not brain dead, but US leadership of the alliance is more in doubt than ever before due to the President’s inability to recognize the real advantages a multilateral partnership gives to American power projection. American abandonment of even the pretense of evenhandedness in Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians has opened the door to extremist Jewish ambitions to annex the West Bank.
Only 11 months remain before the next US presidential election. It will focus mainly on domestic issues like the economy, health care, religion, and race. But there can be no doubt the United States is less well positioned internationally than it was in January 2017, when President Trump took office. The rest of the world increasingly regards the U.S. as a menace to peace and security, not its guarantor. Excessive reliance on military force and erratic decisionmaking have reduced American influence. Even the relatively strong economy, which has continued to grow at the pace established in the Obama administration and thereby reduced unemployment to historic lows, has not propped up American prestige, because of Trump’s trade wars. Enthusiasm for America is at a nadir in most of the world.
We can hope for better and toast the prospects this evening. But there is little reason to believe the United States is going to recover until it gets new leadership, not only in the White House but also in the Senate, where the new year will see some semblance of a “trial” of President Trump on self-evident impeachment charges. He tried to extort Ukraine into investigating a political rival for his personal benefit using US government resources and has withheld cooperation with the resulting investigation. But few if any Republican Senators seem ready to acknowledge the facts. I might hope Chief Justice Roberts will refuse to preside over a sham procedure and insist on testimony, but he has given no hint of that yet.
America is a great country. It has survived many mistakes. But whether it can get through the next year without doing itself irreversible harm is in doubt. It could “acquit” and re-elect a president most of the world regards as more of a threat to peace and security than Vladimir Putin. Or it could, against the odds, redeem itself and its role in the world with a conviction, a good election free of international interference, and inauguration of someone the world and most its citizens can respect. Take your choice, America.
And happy New Year!
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 21 and 22
December 22
– Washington awaits North Korean missile test with policy in disarray, NYT says.
– WSJ says Navarro endures on trade issues.
-Former CIA official reflects on Post’s Afghanistan articles. I agree.
-Newly released emails show OMB blocking Ukraine aid 90 minutes after Zelensky phone call.
– NYT compares political situations of Nixon and Trump.
December 21
– The administration forced Congress to back down on a provision in the omnibus spending bill that would have forced early release of military aid to Ukraine.
– NYT can track you by your phone, and they did it on the president.
-WaPo lists the contenders fighting in Libya.
– NYT says there’s vote rigging in Venezuela..
– The fight over control of the world’s financial system.
– FP explains why US and Israel don’t have a formal alliance.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Impeachment day
The US House of Representatives will impeach President Trump today, or if the debate goes too long maybe tomorrow. The charges are clear: abuse of power and obstructing Congress. The evidence is overwhelming and uncontested: using his personal lawyer, Trump used US government assets to further his personal electoral interests by trying to get Ukraine to investigate a political rival and ordered Administration officials not to cooperate with the impeachment process.
The outcome of the trial in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required, is just as clear. Virtually all of the 53 Republicans are so far determined to vote against removing the President from office. It is not even clear that the Senate will permit a serious trial with witnesses. Senate Majority Leader McConnell has announced that he is not impartial, despite Senate rules that require he swear an oath or affirm that
in all things appertaining to the trial of Donald J. Trump, now pending, I will do impartial justice according to the Constitution and laws, so help me God.
Clearly, McConnell should not be voting on impeachment when it is taken up in the Senate in January, nor should he be deciding what the procedure there will be.
Meanwhile, President Trump has sent what can only be termed a nutty letter to Speaker of the House Pelosi objecting to the impeachment proceedings in stentorian tones. The letter itself could be the basis for an article of impeachment, as it fails to acknowledge the House’s constitutional authority to conduct the impeachment process. It thus confirms that the President is attempting to obstruct Congress in fulfilling its responsibilities.
It is still unclear what the political consequences of this impeachment will be. Those who hoped impeachment would tame Trump have already been proved wrong. But despite the partisan divide, the House has been able to proceed with budget bills containing lots of controversial measures. Those are expected to be approved in the Senate by Friday, when otherwise the US Government will again have to go through the ridiculous process of shutting down.
Both Democrats and Republicans seem concerned that they demonstrate some tangible progress on issues that matter to Americans (family leave, health care, gun research) even while conducting a dialogue of the deaf on impeachment. That is good news on the domestic front, at least for now.
More important is how impeachment, followed by “acquittal” in the Senate, will affect turnout and voting in the November 2020 election, when all of the House, one-third of the Senate, and the White House will be on the ballot. It certainly didn’t help the Democrats when Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 but not removed from office. But those were different times. So far impeachment has done little to damage Trump’s support with those who approve of his performance as President.
How will impeachment affect the President, especially his foreign policy moves? My best guess is that he will become anxious to show some results even if he does not moderate his language or behavior. He has already reached a truce in the trade war with the Chinese, giving Beijing more than he got. He has also ordered a partial withdrawal from Afghanistan, despite the failure to reach an agreement with the Taliban. He will likely also cave to North Korea, which has turned belligerent towards its erstwhile lover. Trump has nothing to show for his erratic Russophilia and his hostility towards friends, allies, and democracies. Making America Grate Again is not, it turns out, a way to serve the national interest.
But the biggest factor affecting Trump’s electoral prospects is the economy. It is already slowing, and Boeing’s 737 Max problems will slow it further. Watch that space: an end to the longest US expansion ever would imperil Trump more than impeachment.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 9
– China has ordered no foreign computers or software after 2022.
– US strangles WTO.
– North Korea lambastes Trump.
-WaPo details how Democrats leveraged Space Force for parental leave.
– WaPo publishes formerly secret documents showing misleading statements about Afghan war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army December 5 and 6
December 6
– DIA has done a big unclassified report on Iran’s military power.
– A law firm has done a good summary of recent sanctions policy.
– FP says State is excluding officials from information on senior officials’ phone calls.
-David Ignatius says State blocked a contract to train Saudi intelligence.
December 5
Something’s going on. I don’t know whether there has been a genuine increase in the threat from Iran or whether the administration is creating a pretext for military action in the region. Here are the dots that seem to connect: US officials are now revealing that Iran has secretly moved short range ballistic missiles into Iraq. Despite public denials, Pentagon reporters hear that the military wants to send an additional 14,000 US troops to the Middle East [but no details on location or types]. SecState Pompeo had an urgently scheduled meeting with IsraeliPM Netanyahu, where the key topic was said to be Iran. Under Secretary Rood made an even more explicit warning of Iranian military action.
Meanwhile, a former senior intelligence official says Trump often disputes what IC briefers tell him.
Kim Jong-un also seems to be ratcheting up his threats to change policy at the New Year.
Reuters says Jared Kushner is now playing a big role in China trade talks.
NYT study says US cluster munitions have caused many US friendly fire deaths.
A Syracuse professor burns a straw man in a WSJ op-ed. He decries any value in the “interagency process” because the president is in charge of foreign policy. Of course the president is the ultimate authority. But wise and successful presidents over the years have used the process to vet and revise their policies, and to implement them. Many of Trump’s setbacks have come precisely because he acted impulsively or ignorance of contextual details. [See, I don’t only send things I agree with.]
As an example of this process internationally, look at the detailed official statement from the NATO summit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, November 30
– What will happen when North Korea’s end-of-year deadline for talks expires?
-Is the Taliban really ready for concessions and especially a cease-fire?
– Who will take over In Iraq, now that the prime minister has resigned under pressure from the Grand Ayatollah?
– How significant is China’s threat to Australia?
– Who cares if the House has passed over 400 bills if few have been taken up in the Senate?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
