Tag: North Korea
Friday stock taking
It’s Friday, so let’s take a look at how effectively the Trump Administration has dealt with world and domestic events this week while it obsesses over impeachment:
- The North Koreans continue to launch increasingly capable ballistic missiles.
- While suffering from reimposed sanctions, Iran is defying the US and increasing uranium enrichment beyond the limits specified the nuclear deal the US withdrew from.
- The Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities has elicited no visible response from the US or Saudi Arabia, which is joining the United Arab Emirates in playing footsie with Iran.
- While failing to remove from Syria all the troops Trump said would be withdrawn, the US has allowed Turkey to take over a buffer zone along its border with Syria, leading to large-scale displacement of people there. Russia has also gained a foothold in northeastern Syria, as has the Assad regime.
- The trade war with China drags on, with the US trade deficit ballooning and Asian partners and allies doubting US commitments in the region.
- Venezuelan autocrat Maduro has survived despite American pressure, as has the Communist regime in Cuba and Evo Morales’ rule in Bolivia.
- In Europe, French President Macron is describing NATO as “brain dead” because of Trump’s lack of commitment to it and Trump’s pal UK Prime Minister Johnson is being forced into an election to try to confirm his Brexit plan, which Trump has supported.
- In the Balkans, the Administration has confused everyone with the appointment of two special envoys whose relationship to each other and to US policy is opaque.
- That’s all without even mentioning Ukraine, where State Department officials have confirmed that President Trump tried to extort an investigation of his political rivals from newly elected President Zelensky in exchange for Congressionally approved military aid.
The home front is even worse:
- A New York State Court has forced Trump into a $2 million settlement in which he has admitted improper and fraudulent use of his family foundation.
- Republicans lost the governorship in Kentucky and control of both houses of the Virginia assembly in off-year elections earlier this week. Congressional Republicans are nervous.
- President Trump’s personal lawyer affirmed that everything he did in Ukraine was to serve his client’s personal interests, a statement that confirms public assets were used for private purposes.
- The Attorney General, a stalwart defender of his boss, has declined to make a public statement supporting Trump’s claim that he did nothing wrong in his infamous phone call with President Zelensky.
- The House Democrats are piling up subpoenas that the White House is ignoring, heightening the likelihood that obstruction of Congressional oversight will be added to the impeachment charges and limiting the news to the sharp critiques of non-White House officials.
- The economy is slowing, especially in some “swing” districts vital to Trump’s hopes for a win in the electoral college in 2020, when he is sure to lose the popular vote once again, likely by a wider margin than in 2016.
I suppose it could get worse, and likely will. But it has been a long time since we’ve seen an American Administration in worse shape than this.
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The nuclear race has begun
As Iran steps up its enrichment of uranium, the harbingers are clear:
- Turkish President Erdogan is asking questions out loud about why his country doesn’t have nuclear weapons,
- Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is making it clear the Kingdom won’t be left far behind,
- Israel is lying low with its 100 or more warheads somewhere between ready and almost ready to launch, and
- North Korea is successfully resisting American pressure to give up its dozen or so nukes, making it clear to the whole world that Washington is a toothless tiger when it comes to nuclear nonproliferation.
The nightmare many of us feared in the 1970s and 1980s of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East has begun.
The trigger was President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) and reimposition of sanctions have released Tehran from its obligations, which it is gradually and deliberately breaching. Turkey, which has long relied on the American nuclear umbrella and NATO, has cozied up to Russia–even purchasing its advanced air defense system–as relations with Washington worsened over how to deal with the Syrian Kurds. Erdogan has no doubt heard the talk about removing American nuclear weapons from Turkey and has drawn the obvious conclusion: if the American umbrella won’t protect you, get your own.
The Saudis increasingly view President Trump as unreliable, especially vis-a-vis Iran. They would be fools not to try to keep pace with the Turks in the race with Iran for nuclear weapons capability. What they can’t develop themselves, they’ll buy. The once prevalent and now quaint notion that no nuclear-savvy country would sell its crown jewels disappeared with Pakistani nuclear merchant A.Q. Khan. The Saudis can pay any price if need be.
The Middle East had gotten used to the Israeli nuclear capabilities, which have been regarded for decades as a deterrent for use only as a last resort. They play little roll in the balance of power beyond ensuring that Israel will continue to exist. The same cannot be assumed about Iranian, Turkish, and Saudi capabilities. Multi-sided games are much more complex than one- or two-sided ones. We can be thankful for the modus vivendi between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan, but it is no harbinger for a four-sided nuclear standoff in the eastern Mediterranean. And the subcontinent’s standoff may not last forever, since at least Pakistan regards nuclear weapons as useful in warfighting, not just the last resort.
We have at least a few years, perhaps even a decade, before this race reaches some sort of equilibrium. In the meanwhile, the push and shove will be made all the more dramatic by US withdrawal from the Middle East. Its interests there have declined markedly with the development of advanced oil and gas recovery technology and the continued reduction of the US economy’s dependence on energy, especially in the form of hydrocarbons.
The big challenges for American diplomacy today are to slow the Middle East nuclear arms race and build some sort of regional security structure in which the Turks, Iranians, Saudis, and ultimately Israelis can work out their differences without resort to either the proxy wars they are already engaged in or the nuclear exchanges that will all-too-soon become possible. US withdrawal from its over-exposure in the Middle East is inevitable and desirable. But the risks are colossal. Diplomacy can reduce but likely not eliminate those risks.
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No smear
Read Bill Taylor. His opening statement in the House yesterday illustrates vividly why it is so important to have a professional, disciplined, and honest Foreign Service.
Bill, who was my colleague at the US Institute of Peace 10 years ago, testifies to the existence of a communications channel from President Trump to Ukrainian President Zelensky that was demanding investigations of the 2016 election and of Joe Biden’s son in exchange for freeing up military assistance and allowing Zelensky a visit to the White House. The crux of the matter is this, in Bill’s words:
The irregular policy channel was running contrary to goals of longstanding U.S. policy.
Informal channels are common and often useful in diplomacy. Bill was lucky he even knew about this one. Often they bypass the official Chief of Mission entirely. Trump is entitled to use his friends to convey messages to a foreign head of state if he likes.
But in this case the informal channel really was irregular, because it was conveying messages inconsistent with US law and policy. The Congress had provided the military assistance and the various departments of government whose assent was required had given it. Stated US policy was support for Ukraine. If Trump wanted to add conditions, he needed to tell his own Administration as well as the Congress and inform the embassy.
He failed to do that, since he knew the backlash would be gigantic. He preferred instead to use his personal lawyer and a campaign contributor now ambassador to the European Union. Rudy Giuliani and Gordon Sondland could be relied on to do Trump’s personal bidding, no matter how wrong-headed. Under instructions from the President, they were trying to use US aid to extract results that would be personally and politically beneficial to himself. Bill memorably described this as “crazy,” but it is far worse that that. It is a corrupt abuse of power.
Now the President and his minions are claiming Bill’s testimony is a “smear” because there was no quid pro quo. This is classic Trump: accusing others of doing what he is doing to them and claiming that the facts are somehow different because he says they are. Bill should wear the accusations against him with pride: he did has done the right thing and demonstrated how an honest civil servant can penetrate the fog of lies and abuse of power that surround this president.
There is more to come. Defense official Laura Cooper is talking with the House today. No doubt many intelligence officials, civil servants, and Foreign Service officers will, following Bill’s example, find the courage to speak out. There will be plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors to sort through. The big question is when Speaker Pelosi will decide that the House has enough to impeach: before the end of the year, as many are speculating, or closer to the 2020 election?
Trump has now betrayed American interests in Ukraine, Syria (by yanking US troops without proper preparation), North Korea (by ignoring missile launches), and even Saudi Arabia, where he has failed to respond to the attack on its oil production facilities. In all four places he has created openings that Russian President Putin is exploiting. There were good reasons why Putin intervened in the 2016 election in favor of Trump, who is both strikingly incompetent and beholden to Russian financing.
That is no smear. It is the sad and apparent truth.
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Sickening
Today’s announcement of a unilateral withdrawal of US forces from northeastern Syria in response to Turkey’s request is the worst of many possible worlds: Ankara will take over the border area, much of which is predominantly Kurdish, precipitating a fight with the PYD Syrian Kurds, ending the Kurdish effort against the remnants of the Islamic State, and enabling the Syrian government to reassert its control over the natural and agricultural resources of the northeast, most of which do not lie along the border.
President Erdogan sought the American withdrawal, though he may be surprised if it is complete. I will be too. The US should be maintaining some counterterrorism forces in northeastern Syria. They could be nominally covert rather than overt. Or they could be maintained over the border in Iraq. The ability to strike quickly and accurately is important. But President Trump needs to be able to brag that he has ended at least one Middle East war and withdrawn American troops, so what is desirable in terms of national security may give way to what is politically convenient.
Turkey will now take on the brunt of the fight against the Islamic State as well as against the Syrian Kurdish forces that support the PKK insurgency inside Turkey. Ankara also intends to move large numbers of Syrian refugees (millions is the stated number) back into a part of Syria where few of them lived before. Whole cities will need to be built. This is a big increase in Turkish burdens. It remains to be seen how well Ankara does. Economic pressures will make it doubly difficult.
The Syrian Kurdish forces will presumably flee south, into territory that is mostly Arab, and turn to Damascus for protection. President Assad used Syrian Kurds against Turkey for many years and will support their efforts to promote insurgency against the Turkish presence in northern Syria. This will put the Russians in an awkward spot, as Moscow wants to maintain good relations with both Ankara and Damascus, but President Putin has proven skilled at that game so far. Iran will be happy to see Turkey discomforted.
The US withdrawal will in principle create an opportunity to improve Washington’s relations with Ankara, but the Turkish purchase of Russian air defenses and the consequent American refusal to sell F35 airplanes to Turkey remain as serious obstacles. It is difficult to see how that knot will get untied, though Erdogan is skilled at backing up when he sees a real need to do so. President Trump would likely give in easily on the F35s, but there Congress plays a decisive role.
A negotiated US withdrawal might have avoided many of the difficulties that will now arise. But President Trump is proving inept at negotiations. The North Koreans have denounced their talks with the US over last weekend as “sickening.” So too is the decision to unilaterally withdraw from Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, October 7
President Trump, following a conversation with Turkish President
Erdogan, announced withdrawal of remaining US forces in Syria,
reportedly against the advice of many advisers. Here’s WaPo’s story, and NYT’s.
Talks with North Korea broke down quickly this weekend. DPRK made blistering comments.
FP says Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries have been sidelined, but others remain.
Head of SouthCom says hundreds are in Venezuela. BTW, Venezuela will be the topic of our simulated SFRC hearing on Oct 23/24.
Kentucky favored by Transportation. No surprise.
Timothy Garton Ash has a good summary of Eastern Europe 30 years after the fall of the wall.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 30 and October 1
I had trouble posting from home yesterday, so here are Charlie Stevenson’s news summaries for today and yesterday:
October 1
Happy New Year! [FY2020]
US News argues that the military have increasing dominance over DOD civilians. I share those concerns.
FP has a review of two new memoirs, by Samantha Power and Susan Rice.
Picking up on John Bolton’s sharp criticism of North Korea policy, John Gans notes the parallels with Al Haig, fired by Reagan.
September 30
Why did special envoy Volker resign? Politico has some background.
Will Trump actually block Chinese from Wall Street?
Double standard? Why does NYTimes seem to care more about hiding identity of a leaker than of a whistleblower who followed the law?
Is it that easy to hack US voting machines? The scary report.
How to mitigate the effects of tariffs? Sen. Cotton has another deviously clever idea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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