Tag: North Korea
Peace Picks, January 20-24
It’s a shortened week in DC, as Monday is Martin Luther King Day. But still lots of good events from Tuesday on:
1. What Will 2014 bring for North Korea’s Nuclear Program?
Tuesday, January 21 | 9am – 12pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW
2013 witnessed new levels of threatening behavior from North Korea: a satellite launch that could portend an improved long-range ballistic missile capability; a third nuclear test; and declarations that the Korean peninsula would witness “an all-out war, a nuclear war.” Recent perturbations among the North Korean leadership also raise the possibility of greater instability and unpredictability. What will 2014 bring in terms of North Korean nuclear behavior?
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies invite you to a discussion on what to expect from North Korea on nuclear matters in 2014. Five experts will discuss the status of North Korea’s nuclear activities, what negotiating tactics North Korea might attempt, and whether there are lessons to be drawn in managing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions from the Iranian and South Asian experiences.
SPEAKERS
Toby Dalton is the deputy director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on cooperative nuclear security initiatives and nuclear challenges in South Asia and East Asia.
Choi Kang is a senior research fellow and the vice president for research at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. He was previously the dean of Planning and Assessment at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
Joel Wit is a visiting scholar at the US-Korea Institute at SAIS and a senior research fellow at Columbia University Weatherhead Institute for East Asian Studies.
Park Jiyoung is a research fellow and director of the Science and Technology Policy Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Park was previously managing director of the Research and Development Feasibility Analysis Center at the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning.
Shin Chang-Hoon is a research fellow and the director of the International Law and Conflict Resolution Department at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. He is also the director of the Asan Nuclear Policy and Technology Center.
James L. Schoff is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on U.S.-Japanese relations and regional engagement, Japanese politics and security, and the private sector’s role in Japanese policymaking.
Go Myong-Hyun is a research fellow and the director of the Center for Risk, Information, and Social Policy at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Go’s research focuses on social networks, complex social interactions over space, and geospatial modeling of disease.
2. Peace for Israel and Palestine? Public Opinion 20 Years after Oslo
Wednesday, January 22 | 9:30 – 11am
New America Foundation, 1899 L St NW, Suite 400
As Secretary of State John Kerry’s April deadline for a peace agreement approaches, a key concern is whether the Israeli and Palestinian publics are ready to support an agreement. Where do Israelis and Palestinians stand on key issues, and what kind of peace agreement do they want?
Twenty years after the signing of the Oslo Accords, Zogby Research Services examined these questions in its latest public opinion poll on Israeli and Palestinian attitudes toward the peace process. Please join the Arab American Institute and the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force for the survey’s public release and a discussion of its findings. The poll, conducted for the Sir Bani Yas Forum in the UAE, provides critical insights for today’s peace negotiators as they seek a viable agreement that both the Israeli and Palestinian publics can support.
In collaboration with the Arab American Institute.
PARTICIPANTS
Presenter:
James Zogby, President, Arab American Institute and Zogby Research Services
Panelists:
Khaled Elgindy, Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution
Lara Friedman, Director, Policy and Government Relations, Americans for Peace Now
Moderator:
Leila Hilal, Director, Middle East Task Force, New America Foundation
If you are unable to join us in person, please tune in to our live webcast of the event.
3. The Role of Entrepreneurship in Building a Better Egypt
Wednesday, January 22 | 12 – 1:45pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW
In Egypt, innovative enterprise development has taken off in the wake of the 2011 protests with thousands of youth turning to entrepreneurship as a means of creating economic opportunity as well as addressing social challenges.
The Middle East Institute is proud to host a discussion about Egypt’s burgeoning start-up sector with entrepreneurs Yumna Madi (KarmSolar), Mona Mowafi (Rise Egypt), and Dina Sherif (Ahead of the Curve, Silatech), who will discuss their companies’ innovative ideas, the opportunities and challenges they face as entrepreneurs, and their hopes to see greater development and job creation in Egypt through the support of more innovators and start-ups. James A. Harmon,chairman of the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund, will discuss U.S. and international support for emerging business initiatives in the country. Christopher M. Schroeder, author of Startup Rising: The Entrepreneurial Revolution Remaking the Middle East, will lead the discussion.
* A light lunch will be served at this event
4. Pakistan Media: Democratic Inclusion, Accountability and Peaceful Contestation
Thursday, January 23 | 2:15 – 4pm
US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW
The challenges and opportunities facing Pakistan’s media in many ways reflect the challenges and opportunities facing the country’s democracy. After a decade of transformation, Pakistan’s media have become an increasingly coherent platform for raising popular concerns and needs. Yet, considerable constraints remain. Decades of state manipulation undermined the development of robust media organizations. Legal protections are weak, security threats are many and the industry is not financially sound. Consequently the media remains vulnerable to exploitation by state and non-state actors as they compete for power.
This event will also feature a new policy briefing from BBC Media Action, a case study from USIP’s research into political violence reporting, and analysis from Pamela Constable, author and longtime reporter on Pakistan.
5. Perspectives on Colombia’s Peace Process and Opportunities for U.S. Engagement
Thursday, January 23 | 9am – 5pm
The Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University City View Room, 1957 E Street NW, 7th Floor
Colombia appears to be nearing an end to its bitter internal armed conflict. After 50 years, a death toll approaching a quarter million and the forced displacement of over five million, Colombia has its best chance in decades of securing peace. Peace talks between the government and the country’s largest guerilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, FARC), are in their second year. The parties have reached tentative agreements on the first two agenda points – land and political participation – and are now discussing a solution to the issue of illicit drugs. As the talks continue in Havana, Cuba, the potential for a positive US role in designing both policies and aid packages that support peace is becoming increasingly evident. In this three-panel event, Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) will convene leading human rights defenders, security analysts, and policymakers from the United States and Colombia to discuss the status of the talks and opportunities for US engagement.
The event will be held in English and Spanish, and simultaneous interpretation will be provided. A light lunch will also be provided. For more information, please contact Adam Schaffer at (202) 797 2171.
The event will be available via live stream at www.wola.org. To RSVP for the live stream, please click here. A video of the event will be available shortly after.
6. Rethinking Islamist Politics: A Panel Discussion
Thursday, January 23 | 12 – 2pm
Elliott School of International Affairs, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602; 1957 E Street NW
Join the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS) to analyze the state of Islamist politics in the Middle East. The panel will examine the current directions of the Muslim Brotherhood and electoral politics, Salafism, and jihadist movements, as well as trends in the broader Islamic context.
SPEAKERS
Panelists:
François Burgat, Researcher, Institut de Recherches et d’Etudes sur le Monde Arabe et Musulman
Thomas Hegghammer, Research Fellow and Director of Terrorism Research, Norwegian Defense Research Establishment
Bruce Lawrence, Professor of Religion, Duke University
Tarek Masoud, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School of Government
Moderated by:
Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Middle East Studies, GW
A light lunch will be provided.
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How to stay out of trouble
It would be easy to be pessimistic about 2014. But as Adam Gopnik cleverly illustrates it is really impossible to know whether we are on the Titanic, destined for disaster, or its twin the Olympic, which plied the seas for two more decades without faltering.
The question is what will keep America out of trouble? How do we avoid the icebergs of contemporary international relations? Gopnik suggests avoiding challenges to honor and face and worrying little about credibility or position. This seems to me wise. The question of reputation in international affairs is fraught, but anyone of the Vietnam generation will want to be skeptical about claims the United States needs to intervene in the world to prevent its reputation from being sullied or to prove its primacy.
Hubris is the bigger danger. I, along with many others, don’t like the Obama Administration’s aloof stance towards Syria. But the least good reason for intervention there is to meet the Russian challenge, reassert primacy in the Arab world or prevent others from thinking America weak. We are not weak. We are strong, arguably far stronger than we would have been had we intervened in Syria a year ago and gotten stuck with enhanced responsibilities there. The reasons for intervention in Syria are more substantial: the threat of a terror-exporting Sunni extremist regime either in Damascus or in some portion of a partitioned Syria as well as the risk to neighboring states (Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Israel) from Syrian collapse. Read more
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The 2013 vintage in the peace vineyard
2013 has been a so-so vintage in the peace vineyard.
The Balkans saw improved relations between Serbia and Kosovo, progress by both towards the European Union and Croatian membership. Albania managed a peaceful alternation in power. But Bosnia and Macedonia remain enmired in long-running constitutional and nominal difficulties, respectively. Slovenia, already a NATO and EU member, ran into financial problems, as did Cyprus. Turkey‘s long-serving and still politically dominant prime minister managed to get himself into trouble over a shopping center and corruption.
The former Soviet space has likewise seen contradictory developments: Moldova‘s courageous push towards the EU, Ukraine‘s ongoing, nonviolent rebellion against tighter ties to Russia, and terrorist challenges to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Read more
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The end is nigh, once again
2013 is ending with a lot of doom and gloom:
- South Sudan, the world’s newest state, is suffering bloodletting between political rivals, who coincide with its two largest tribes (Dinka and Nuer).
- The Central African Republic is imploding in an orgy of Christian/Muslim violence.
- North Korea is risking internal strife as its latest Kim exerts his authority by purging and executing his formally powerful uncle.
- China is challenging Japan and South Korea in the the East China Sea.
- Syria is in chaos, spelling catastrophe for most of its population and serious strains for all its neighbors.
- Nuclear negotiations with Iran seem slow, if not stalled.
- Egypt‘s military is repressing not only the Muslim Brotherhood but also secular human rights advocates.
- Israel and Palestine still seem far from agreement on the two-state solution most agree is their best bet.
- Afghanistan‘s President Karzai is refusing to sign the long-sought security agreement with the United States, putting at risk continued presence of US troops even as the Taliban seem to be strengthening in the countryside, and capital and people are fleeing Kabul.
- Al Qaeda is recovering as a franchised operation (especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and North Africa), even as its headquarters in Pakistan has been devastated.
- Ukraine is turning eastward, despite the thousands of brave protesters in Kiev’s streets.
The Economist topped off the gloom this week by suggesting that the current international situation resembles the one that preceded World War I: a declining world power (then Great Britain, now the US) unable to ensure global security and a rising challenger (then Germany now China). Read more
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The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
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We are Kim’s kin too
I can’t even pretend to know something about North Korea, but it seems to me The Daily Beast has it right: rather than being a sign of strength, Kim Jong Un’s purge and execution of his uncle reflects weakness and foreshadows instability. The military is coming out on top, regime cadres will be running scared and Pyongyang will become more isolated. Uncle Jang Song Thaek was a key liaison with the Chinese, which had been encouraging economic opening and discouraging nuclear adventurism.
This is a difficult situation for the rest of the world. North Korea is a threat to regional stability either way: Kim may gain full command and brandish nuclear weapons against his neighbors (and Washington, though no one thinks he has the capability to target the continental United States), hoping to be paid off in fuel and food. The US has done that several times, but President Obama has sworn off the practice. Or North Korea might collapse, sending refugees into China and the South and leaving behind nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction in the hands of who knows who. Read more
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