Tag: North Korea
Nuclear irresponsibility
Former IAEA nuclear inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes, on a date between the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and the bombing of Nagasaki (in an excerpt from his Global Nuclear Developments, which Springer published in May 2020):
Nuclear powers regard their weapons as the most effective lever to achieve strategic goals and the status of a world power or a regional leader. The geopolitical backdrop from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombing simply could not be ignored. There are already a number of “nuclear suitors” or would-be proliferators who are ready to play the same card in the on-going geopolitical game. This fact cannot and should not be ignored….
In 50 years of implementation the NPT has had significant successes to show as far as consolidating the non-proliferation regime is concerned. But when it comes to the goal of nuclear disarmament, it has so far been a great failure. The five superpowers, the NPT Nuclear Weapons States, keep evading, in essence ignoring their relevant obligation to nuclear disarmament under Article VI of the NPT. Their behavior creates global frustration, awkwardness and anger, and consequently great distrust of the vast majority of “nuclear have nots” to the few “nuclear haves.” This reality could be a powerful catalyst for negative developments leading to the collapse of the NPT regime.….
Having served for over 32 years the world’s nuclear watchdog IAEA, consciously espousing its declared goals, I would like to address a few rhetorical questions to the two major nuclear powers: the US and Russia, depositaries and steady supporters of the NPT regime and the IAEA:
• Why do they revive, in full consciousness, a nuclear race 30 years after the end of the Cold War?
• Are they not aware of their actions being contrary to their undertaking under Article VI of the NPT? That is “…to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”.
• Do they not realize that they severely endanger the non-proliferation regime?
• Do they not see the imminent risk of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation by aspiring suitors, “would-be proliferators,” in the Middle East and in north-east Asia?
• Isn’t North Korea enough?
• Why do they risk their displacement from, or initially the decreased relevance of, their global geostrategic primacy?
• Is it possible that they underestimate the growing nuclear threat to mankind?
• Is the behavior of the two UNSC superpowers responsible as patrons of world peace and security? Why do they disrespect the international community’s expectations and disregard its exasperation, anger, and fear?
The risks of the nuclear threat span around the globe and affect every country’s sovereignty and security. The universal nature of the existing nuclear threat is indisputable. It is within the powers and abilities of the leaders of Russia and the US to fulfill their utmost obligation towards their citizens and the peoples of our really small, yet so beautiful and still very young planet Earth. This is to initiate and achieve a political climate of understanding and moderation,a global nuclear “calm down” atmosphere. …
What are these leaders waiting for? What are their intentions? Nuclear crises are becoming more complex and unpredictable, more dynamic and erratic in nature. The tipping point for uncontrollable and irreversible derailment may be nearer than we think. The probability of nuclear weapons be used at any time, intentionally or by accident, is on the rise again, after decades of receding following the end of the Cold War era.
Have we not yet learned the lesson from Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
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Biden will have his hands full
Time for a summer update on President Trump’s diplomatic initiatives, more or less in his priority order:
- Trade with China: importing less than half of what is called for in the “first phase” agreement.
- Re-initiating nuclear talks with Iran: Trump said more than a year ago he would talk with no pre-conditions. Tehran won’t, despite “maximum pressure.” Iran wants sanctions eased first.
- Getting rid of North Korea’s nuclear weapons: Kim Jong-un has in effect said “no.”
- Ending the war in Afghanistan: The withdrawal is proceeding, but progress in intra-Afghan talks is minimal.
- Removal of Venezuelan President Maduro: He has weathered the challenge and remains firmly in power.
- South China Sea: The US has rejected China’s sovereignty claim but is doing nothing about its military outposts.
- Helping Ukraine force the Russians out of Donbas: The Administration has provided lethal weapons to no avail.
- Reducing Saudi oil production to jack up world prices: Saudi production is down, but world prices are still in a trough.
- Initiating a democratic transition in Syria: Congress has beefed up sanctions, but Trump can’t even begin to get Assad out.
- “Deal of the century”: Not going anywhere but into the shredder. Even Israeli annexation of part of the West Bank is blocked.
This skips a lot. For example:
- the President telling Chinese President Xi that it was fine to put (Muslim) Uighurs into concentration camps,
- withdrawing from the Paris Climate accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and several favorable arms control agreements with Russia,
- moving US troops out of Germany to the delight of Moscow,
- failing to counter Russian bounties for Taliban who kill US soldiers in Afghanistan,
- saying the right things about Hong Kong and withdrawing its trade preferences, but with not discernible impact,
- not responding to foreign initiatives to undermine the US elections, and
- withdrawing from the World Health Organization in the midst of a pandemic.
American foreign policy has rarely been so ineffectual, never mind whether the priorities are right. The Administration doesn’t think past its own next move. The President is incapable of it and won’t let others do it for him. He behaves as if the adversary has no options. Much of what the Administration does is for show, without considering however how most of the rest of the world sees the situation. The only customers for this foreign policy are the domestic audience of China hawks, Russia doves, oil and coal producers, and evangelical Christians, along with President Putin, Prime Minister Netanyahu and a few other would-be autocrats around the world.
Getting out of the foreign policy hole Trump has dug will be a big challenge. President Biden, if there ever is one, will have his hands full even if he pays attention only to the first three of the items above. Let’s hope he can somehow save us from the consequences of four dreadful years.
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Stevenson’s army, July 14
– WSJ first reported US rejection of Chinese claims in South China Sea. Here’s Pompeo statement
–North Korea rejects more talks with US.
– Britain bans Huawei from 5G.
-Gun lobbyist delivers.
Here’s summary of biggest House-Senate differences in NDAA.
– US has closed 5 more bases in Afghanistan.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 6
– “Middle East intelligence” sources tell the NYT that Israel was responsible for the explosion at Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility.
-Both US and China have major naval operations now in South China Sea.
– FP says WH personnel will conduct loyalty interviews with DOD political appointees.
– AP says Trump-connected lobbyists captured billions in pandemic funds,
– Defector details weakness and corruption in North Korean military.
-LA Times says WH has agreed to keep 4000 US troops in Afghanistan after US elections.
-And for this week of 90+ degree weather, New Yorker has a 1998 article on life before air conditioners. [I remember]
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Nuclear reminders
Former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Pantelis Ikonomou writes occasionally for peacefare.net. We have never met in person, or even spoken on the phone, but his unequivocal commitment to containing and reducing nuclear risks, combined with his technical expertise, has been more than enough reason for me to open the blog to his always welcome contributions.
He has now written and published with Springer a wonderful comprehensive volume modestly titled Global Nuclear Developments: Insights from a Former IAEA Inspector. It is a first-rate primer on:
- the technology required to make a nuclear weapon,
- how the current international regime to control nuclear weapons evolved and how it functions,
- how major nonproliferation crises have been handled in North Korea, Iran, Syria, Libya, Romania, and the former Soviet Union,
- possible future proliferators, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Japan, and South Korea,
- nuclear incidents/accidents, and
- the nuclear weapons states, both within the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty–US, Russia, China, UK, and France–and outside it–India, Pakistan, Israel, and South Africa.
Throughout, Pantelis demonstrates his excellent and dispassionate command of the details while also offering practical and well-founded guidance for the future. North Korea, he thinks, will not be giving up nuclear weapons but its program might be frozen, given the right incentives. The US, he thinks, made a colossal error in withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal (the JCPOA) and thereby shortening the time required for Tehran to obtain the material needed to build a nuclear weapon. He understands that the deal in which Libya gave up its military nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief was a good one, but Qadaffi’s ultimate end will have strengthened North Korean resolve not to do likewise. I found his discussion of the South African and Israeli pursuit of nuclear weapons particularly interesting.
Pantelis is proud of the work of the IAEA, but blunt about the shortcomings of the regime it administers. He regards its Additional Protocol as adequate to limiting the possibility of hiding a military nuclear program within a civilian one, but he also notes that it is not universally and unconditionally accepted, most notably by Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran (which accepts it only within the context of JCPOA) as well as Israel, which remains outside the NPT. He also underlines the tensions between nuclear weapons and non-nuclear weapons states over the reluctance of the former to deliver on nuclear disarmament, which contributed to the failure of the 2015 review conference and what he feared would be the likely failure of the 2020 edition before it was postponed this spring.
In the end, Pantelis speculates on the emergence of a new “tetra”-polar equilibrium among nuclear weapons states:
- US and UK;
- Russia and India;
- China, Pakistan, and North Korea;
- Israel and France.
I am not sure how he comes to this conclusion. Even if 1. and 3. are historically well-rooted, I’m not convinced that India will ally with Russia or that today’s France is interested in allying with Israel, even if Pantelis is correct that France helped Israel develop its nuclear weapons in the past. Nor do I see why this configuration should be stable. It seems to me that two-party nuclear standoffs (US/USSR, India/Pakistan, US/China) are far more likely to be stable than anything with four corners to it.
Pantelis reserves his final enthusiasm for an epilogue in which he pleads with the world’s scientific community to convince the nuclear weapons states, especially the US and Russia, to engage seriously in nuclear disarmament rather than their current race to modernize and proliferate nuclear weapons, which is intensifying. I wouldn’t fault him there at all. The craziness of pursuing weapons that can never be used without sealing your own country’s destruction has not been lost on most of the world’s states. Lowering the level of mutual assured destruction could free up a lot of resources for more useful things. It is fortunate we have well-informed observer/participants like Pantelis to remind us of what we should be doing.
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Fizzle
Donald Trump last night in Tulsa tried to excite his extremist base with a lot of red meat about Democratic radicals, denunciations of burning of the American flag and toppling of statues, suggestions that less testing for Covid-19 would reduce attention to it, and blatant racism. I suppose the crowd liked it, but the arena was half empty and not even his enthusiasts were enthused.
Trump can no longer hide his failures. Covid-19 is growing exponentially in states that he owns. The economy is still moribund, despite a dip in unemployment claims. Most Americans support Black Lives Matter and other “radicals” whom Trump deplores. Trump’s base, which is the only part of the population he cares about, is clearly in the minority, making voter suppression a vital part of his re-election strategy. States run the presidential election, so Republican-led states are aggressively purging voter rolls, reducing the number of polling places, and limiting mail-in ballots.
Trump is however still trying to hide his personal malfeasance and the misdeeds of his pals. That is the short version of why he fired the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) this week. But he did it so sloppily that he is ending up with the career deputy acting in the position, instead of the toady he wanted. That is a great good fortune. SDNY is notoriously independent and likely has the goods on Rudy Giuliani if not on Trump himself, who is reputed to have pressured the prosecutors not to go after a Turkish bank at President Erdogan’s behest.
Trump’s situation is no better abroad. North Korea and Iran continue to defy Trump’s nuclear demands. Both have made significant progress on missiles and nuclear technology in the past 3.5 years. Venezuelan President Maduro remains in office. China is filling the vacuum wherever “make America great again” retreats. Russia has offered Trump nothing for his many efforts to court Putin. The “deal of the century” for the Palestinians has turned into a green light for Israeli annexation of a big chunk of the West Bank. Even that however might not come off, as the Israelis are getting a lot of pressure not to proceed in order to protect their relations with Sunni Arab countries.
The only thing working for Trump right now is Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader. He is proceeding apace with confirmation of unqualified Federal judges Trump dutifully nominates. But they don’t always behave the way McConnell and Trump might like. Despite the Administration’s opposition, the Supreme Court has extended equal protection of the law to LGBTQ people and prevented Trump from reversing the Obama program that protected people brought illegally to the US as children from deportation.
The Trump Administration is still capable of doing astoundingly bad things. But it is losing its grip on the popular imagination of most Americans. Joe Biden, who hasn’t yet been campaigning vigorously, is rising markedly in the polls, including in swing states crucial to Trump. The Electoral College could still save him from defeat, but the odds of that are declining. With four months to go before Americans start to cast their ballots, Trump is fizzling. May it last.
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