Tag: Nuclear weapons
This isn’t easy, but it’s worth the try
President Biden has decided to ignore the attack on US forces deployed in Erbil, Iraq earlier this week and proceed with talking to Iran about returning to the nuclear deal, at the invitation of European allies. This move entails political risk, as surely Republicans and others will criticize talking with people who are rocketing American troops. But the alternative is worse: making a strategic priority subject to tactical moves of uncertain origin. Tehran may have ordered the attack in Erbil, or it may have originated with an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) proxy anxious to prevent US return to the nuclear deal. Or maybe someone else did it.
The US has little other option at this point. Iran is moving rapidly now to enrich more uranium, transform it to metallic form, and block some International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. Tehran could be a good deal less than a year from being capable of making an atomic weapon. I doubt it will do so, as that would give others in the region unequivocal incentive to follow suit, and a nuclear Iran would be on a hair trigger alert with Israel every day of the week. But betting on the rationality of the IRGC and the Supreme Leader would be a serious mistake.
Four years of Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran have yielded nothing but evidence that economic sanctions won’t cause Tehran to re-enter nuclear negotiations in order to deepen and extend their nuclear commitments. Trump also failed to get Iran to expand the talks to discuss the missile and regional issues, as America’s Israeli and Gulf allies would like. It remains to be seen whether Biden’s approach will work better, but the main thing for the moment is to restore as much as possible of the status quo ante, that is the situation from before the Trump Administration’s ill-advised and poorly executed withdrawal from the Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action (JCPOA, aka Iran nuclear deal).
This will not be trivial. The know-how Iran has gained can’t be reversed without killing scientists, which the Israelis have been willing to do. But if they continue, Iran will itself withdraw from the JCPOA. The current Israeli government might be pleased with that, as it appears to want a good excuse to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. But their Gulf allies would quickly part company with that move. Their capitals all lie within striking distance of Tehran’s missiles, as do their oil tankers. The Abrahamic accords could quickly see the Gulf part ways with Israel as quickly as Ishmael and Isaac did.
The Biden Administration is entering a complex diplomatic maneuver. The Trump sanctions have unquestionably provided leverage, but history suggests you get what you want from sanctions not when you impose them but when you negotiate relief from them. That can be done gradually and in phases corresponding to Iranian moves. But some in Congress will be sniping at you from behind and some in Tehran will be trying to torpedo the effort with attacks on Americans throughout the Middle East. This isn’t easy, but it’s worth the try.
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Stevenson’s army, February 19
– Fred Kaplan has more on Able Archer.
– Strat Prof Paula Thornhill says troops should be taught the Constitution,
-Fletcher prof says US has 3 conditions necessary for civil war.
–US seeks to restart talks with Iran.
-We’re still flying B-52s, but B1s are being retired.
– Army faces a common but painful trade-off: people [end strength] vs modernization.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 12 and 13
I didn’t get to it yesterday, so here is two days worth:
February 13
– Major shakeup in Senate Appropriations — Sen. Leahy becomes chairman, but loses his chairmanship of State/Foreign Ops after many decades. Full roster here.
– State de-lists Houthis as terrorists.
– Biden keeps tariffs on European wine & cheese [Darn]
February 12
This is the year of the ox.
Technology issues are a major part of the Biden administration’s China policy. Note these:
Export restrictions expected.
Supply chain issues important.
Press reports say Jennifer Harris, co-author of War by other means [assigned for week 6] will be NSC director for foreign economic policy.
Fred Kaplan says Pence’s “nuclear football” was evacuated with him.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 10
– NYT says Israeli intelligence reports it would take 2 years for Iran to build nuclear weapons, given recent problems.
– Army Times sees great danger from drones. Defense One suggests ways to counter them.
– Politico says SecDef Austin is hiring talented civilians.
– Defense One urges rethinking our various national stockpiles.
-AEI analyst has good summary of US ideas about China.
– EU diplomat humiliated by Russians.
– NYT says many in France say American “woke leftism” threatens French culture & society.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 6
– Bloomberg says Biden administration wants to give economic incentives to Iran without lifting sanctions.
-SecDef Austin announces global review.
– FP deconstructs Biden foreign policy speech.
-Lawfare reviews Biden’s history on war powers.
– NYT reports “muddled intelligence” hindered police response to Capitol attack. See also their reporting on organized groups involved.
Ya gotta love the Senate [as I do]. It takes unanimous consent in order for Senators and staff to use electronic devices in the chamber. Hence this UC, which was adopted: Congressional Budget Resolution–Agreement: A unanimous-consent agreement was reached providing that for the duration of the Senate’s consideration of S. Con. Res. 5, setting forth the congressional budget for the United States Government for fiscal year 2021 and setting forth the appropriate budgetary levels for fiscal years 2022 through 2030, the Majority and Republican managers of the concurrent resolution, while seated or standing at the managers’ desks, be permitted to deliver floor remarks, retrieve, review, and edit documents, and send email and other data communications from text displayed on wireless personal digital assistant devices and tablet devices; provided further that the use of calculators be permitted on the floor during consideration of the resolution; and that the staff be permitted to make technical and conforming changes to the resolution, if necessary, consistent with the amendments adopted during Senate consideration, including calculating the associated change in the net interest function, and incorporating the effect of such adopted amendments on the budgetary aggregates for Federal revenues, the amount by which the Federal revenues should be changed, new budget authority, budget outlays, deficits, public debt, and debt held by the public
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Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?
Speakers:
Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders
Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University
Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania
2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Watch Here
Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program.
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples
Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI
3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group | Watch Here
The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.
Speakers:
Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service
Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group
Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission
Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group
Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group
Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group
Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group
Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service
4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.
This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.
Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.
Speakers:
Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles
Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel
Chaired by:
Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel
5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie
6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Moderated By:
Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc
7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here
Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control.
Speakers:
Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense
George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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