Tag: Nuclear weapons
Stevenson’s army, January 27
– Relations with Palestinians restored.
– New SecState Blinken plans reviews.-SecDef Austin reviews Afghan withdrawals.
– US looks for new Saudi bases.
-Axios reports on a tech working group report on countering China’s technology.
– Atlantic sees problems ahead for Space Force.
– AU Prof has good ideas for how the cyber czar should operate.
– FP lists its recent articles by new Biden officials, potential guide to how they’ll act in office.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 22
Charlie Stevenson’s writes: “So what do you do when you see a picture of yourself — from 40 years ago — on the homepage of the New York Times?
Share it, of course.” If you don’t know who the person in the foreground is, you are young:
Both House & Senate voted overwhelmingly for the waiver for Austin to be SecDef; Senate vote to confirm will come Friday 1030. Fred Kaplan explains why.
NPR says many veterans were part of attack on the Capitol.
As expected, administration seeks extension of New START, which doesn’t require Senate approval.
Steve Coll warns of problems facing Biden in Afghanistan.
Last week I sent NYT article questioning the promise of hypersonic weapons. Here’s the study on which that was based.
Just Security has some good ideas for a new AUMF.
A bit of history: how a 1930s populist got de-platformed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bid farewell to the treasons of Trump
It’s been hard, but we’ve almost made it to the other side. Now comes a time for rebuilding, or in Biden terms building back better.
Domestic issues will take first priority: the epidemic, the economy, social cleavages. Biden will need to get a lot more needles into arms, a lot more jobs returned and created, a lot of injustices to black and brown people, immigrants, women, college students, and LGBTQ people rectified. Trump’s white supremacist and 2nd Amendment supporters need to know that LAW AND ORDER applies to them as well as to everyone else. Successful prosecution of the January 6 insurrectionists is critical, including an eventual conviction of Trump in the Senate.
Current Majority Leader McConnell is not only open to that possibility but has blamed Trump for provoking the January 6 insurrection:
The mob was fed lies.
This is important, as it opens the a possibility of purging Trumpism from the Republican Party and eventually also from the Senate and House. Remnants will persist, but American politics will return to a much better place if Republicans and Democrats once again come to share a common factual basis rather than being distracted constantly by Trump’s lies.
International issues will be in capable hands at the State Department, National Security Council, and the Defense Department. But they can’t do everything at once. The early moves have been telegraphed: re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (hard) and the Paris climate agreement (easy) as well as an effort to negotiate with Russia extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. But the enemy also gets a vote on priorities. Surprise challenges could come from North Korea, China, or Islamist extremists. Those should not distract the Bidenists from their chosen path: to restore American leadership on a multilateral basis and make the world order more rules-based than it has been for the last four years.
My own focus is on what this means for the Balkans and the Middle East.
In the Balkans it is clear: Washington needs to develop a common vision with the European Union and its member states, then implement it with vigor to stem the tide of Russian and Chinese influence and hasten the day when the countries of the region will all qualify for accession to the EU.
In the Middle East, the way forward is far less clear, because the region lacks a clear direction and American interest has declined. I might prefer that the US favor democracy and human rights, but the fact is there are few Middle East countries in which we’ll find much prospect of either. The trick will be cooperating with autocratic friends (read Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others) without encouraging their human rights abuses. Biden is already committed, as I understand it, to ending US support for the war in Yemen, which will displease Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Israel/Palestine equation will be particularly difficult to solve, as Trump has intentionally lessened the prospects for the two-state solution America has favored. Biden won’t want to reverse the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and the so-called Abrahamic accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain he welcomed. But he could tilt in favor of the Palestinians by renewing US contributions to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and re-establishing a consulate in East Jerusalem, making it clear it will become an embassy once a Palestinian state is formed and recognized.
The world will be watching. Expectations of Biden are high. Disappointments and failures are inevitable, but I do hope America can return to its proper role as a leader in the democratic world!
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Stevenson’s army, January 14
Loyalty test? Army loyalty test.
UCMJ can be used against rioters.
Algorithms have consequences.
CNN explains why the JCS spoke out.
Note the leadership gaps.
Administration touts new Taiwan policy — and declassifies its major policy paper.
WSJ says Iran is working on nuclear weapons materials.
CNAS has new report on countering China’s technology policy.
Thinking like a politician: Punchbowl News suggests motives of the ten GOP who voted for impeachment.
Ten Republicans voted for Trump’s impeachment. Here’s how to think of them:
Rep. John Katko of New York is an upstate Republican who always has a tough general election race. His defection is notable because he’s the top Republican on the Homeland Security Committee — a chair if Republicans win the House back — so a break like this with the president is something.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has been a harsh Trump critic for quite awhile. So, no surprise here, and no internal dynamics to note. He’s picked a lane — institutional hawk with an independent, anti-Trump streak — and he’s sticking to it.
Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, of course, is the most notable yes vote. Her decision to support impeachment likely gave political cover to the rest of the nine who joined her. Cheney’s internal image has been cemented: If you’re aligned with Trump, she’s a turncoat. If you’re part of the party that wants to move on from the 45th president, she did well by you. More about her in a minute.
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan is a veteran Republican who doesn’t get hurt by standing up for what he believes in. Upton has been in the House for 35 years — he probably has 100 percent name ID at home. His district went narrowly for Trump in 2020 — 51-47 — and Upton won by nearly 16 points.
Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington State also has a district that voted narrowly for Trump. She typically wins her seat handily. She has no leadership position at risk by taking this vote.
Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington State was on everyone’s watch list. Newhouse said before the vote he was undecided and then dropped a statement right as he got to the floor saying he’d vote to oust Trump. Newhouse’s district is solidly for Trump, so we’ll see how this plays out for him politically.
Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan continues a trend of really interesting Republicans from the Grand Rapids area — Meijer’s predecessor was Justin Amash. This district seems to reward people who don’t fall in line with the party. Also, Meijer’s family owns the massive Meijer supermarket chain in the Midwest, so he has the personal resources and name ID to withstand attacks.
Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina was a shocker that the Hill press corps and GOP leadership didn’t see coming. His district is conservative — Trump won by 20 points — and many people thought his yes vote was a mistake. It wasn’t. He said this in a statement Wednesday evening:
It has been a week since so many were injured, the United States Capitol was ransacked, and six people were killed, including two police officers. Yet, the President has not addressed the nation to ask for calm. He has not visited the injured and grieving. He has not offered condolences. Yesterday in a press briefing at the border, he said his comments were ‘perfectly appropriate.’ I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable.
Rep. Anthony Gonzales of Ohio was a bit of a surprise to some onlookers. The former NFL wide receiver and Ohio State grad cuts his own image in the House.
Rep. David Valadao of California is perpetually one of the most endangered lawmakers in Congress. The Central Valley Republican was first elected in 2012, lost in 2018 and just won the House seat back. His district voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in November, so politically, this is a good move.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Good grief: problems with friends and adversaries
Anyone who thinks there is no risk of US military action in the Middle East before January 20 hasn’t been paying attention to
- President Trump’s efforts to block reversal of his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and to reassert his declining political relevance at home;
- The refusal of the Defense Department to brief fully the incoming Biden transition team and the reversal of its decision to withdraw an aircraft carrier from the Gulf;
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s interest in continuing Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, Tehran’s decision to enrich uranium to 20%, and Iran’s desire to avenge the assassinations of Generals Qassem Soleimani and (nuclear physicist) Mohsen Fakhrizadeh;
- The Tonkin Gulf and Iraq war precedents, the former an intentionally manufactured excuse for escalation and the latter a fabulous miscalculation, at best.
Flying B52s around the Gulf is not in itself particularly dangerous. Nor is the passage of an Israeli submarine through the Suez Canal or patrolling by the USS Nimitz. But their maneuvers were deliberately publicized, supposedly as deterrence against Iranian attacks. That may be their intention–hard to tell. But even minor or incidental responses by Iran or its surrogates could drive an erratic president to take retaliatory action aimed at shoring up his own image and political relevance as well as hampering re-entry into the nuclear deal.
Fortunately, Tehran seems determined not to give Trump an excuse for military action. They seem anxious to deal with Biden. His National Security Adviser is signaling willingness to return to the status quo ante, but he wants Iran to be willing to engage on missile issues in a regional context. That means America and its allies in the region would also need to be willing to discuss missiles. That isn’t going to be an easy sell.
After January 20, Biden is going to face a cool reception in the Middle East from America’s friends. Trump’s strongest supporters–Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia–will not welcome Biden, as he will be critical of their human rights abuses. Turkey is also on the outs with the US, mainly right now over its purchase of the S400 air defenses from Russia. Iranian proxy forces imperil US troops in otherwise friendly Iraq. The war in Yemen has tilted heavily in the direction of Iran’s favorites, the Houthis, while the US Congress wants the US to stop supporting the Saudi and Emirati intervention there. The war in Libya has tilted towards the Turkish-supported government in Tripoli, leaving the Emiratis on the losing side and the Egyptians scurrying to reach a modus vivendi with the UN-supported government in Tripoli.
Just about the only unalloyed welcome for Biden will be from Jordan and the Palestinians, two of the weakest reeds in the Middle East, as well as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. There will be early decisions required on the Palestinians, in particular whether to re-initiate aid to them through the UN Refugees Works Agency. Biden will happily inherit the “Abrahamic accords,” which exchanged American goodies for Emirati and Bahraini normalization of relations with Israel. But the supposed normalization with Morocco entails American acceptance of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, which Biden may well want to reconsider and possibly reverse.
Biden will have as many problems with America’s friends as with its adversaries. He will want to be critical of Saudi imprisonment of women activists as well as the Kingdom-ordered murder of Jamal Khashoggi, Israeli settlements and annexation of the Golan Heights, Iraq’s failure to rein in paramilitary forces that threaten US troops, Turkish attacks on US-allied Kurdish forces in Syria, and Emirati as well as Turkish violations of the UN arms embargo on Libya. But each of those moves will risk undermining US influence in a region where it is already waning. As the US seeks to withdraw from Middle East commitments, Russia, China, autocrats, extremists, and other undesirables will move to fill the vacuum.
These challenges above all require skilled diplomacy. But the State Department is a shambles and the Defense Department is close behind. The Biden appointments so far in both places are superb people with deep experience. They’ll need it. They won’t want to spend time and energy on the Middle East, which is a region of declining US interest. But it is a region where a lot can be lost, even if little can be gained.
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Stevenson’s army, December 22
In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.
Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.
Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.
Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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