Tag: Nuclear weapons
Stevenson’s army, May 23
-SAIS grad and former SASC staff director Chris Brose, who was in a Strat webinar Friday, has a section from his new book in WSJ.
-Prof Brands and Jake Sullivan say China has 2 paths to global leadership, and we in America may be expecting the wrong one.
-Fred Kaplan defends the Open Skies treaty.
-Meanwhile, the Administration ponders conducting the first nuclear test since 1992.
– NYT lays out options in US response to Hong Kong crackdown.
– WSJ cites study saying jungle primaries lead to more moderate candidates [click on the “new research” link for the actual study].
TOP-TWO PRIMARIES in congressional elections, in which candidates of all parties run in the same primary and then the top two finishers face off in a second round, are associated with more moderate legislators, according to new research by University of Southern California political scientist Christian Grose. Open primaries, in which voters of any party registration can vote in a party primary, also reduce ideological extremity, though to a lesser degree than the top-two scheme. Just three states—California, Louisiana and Washington—used the top-two system in 2020, but Grose suggests “that those in the policy community looking for ways to reduce ideological extremity among legislators” should consider them.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 21
– AP reports on hypersonic missiles, presumably what the president meant when he spoke of a “super duper” missile. CRS has a new backgrounder on them.
– Though we still don’t know what legal authorities the vaccine “Operation Warp Speed” committee has, the COO is a dollar a year contractor with messy ties to the drug industry.
-For those with children, see this NYT article on recognizing symptoms of the inflammatory reaction perhaps linked to the coronarvirus.
– NYT says Trump is hard for the intelligence community to brief.
– Politico says senior officials from several agencies opposed the Saudi arms sale that Pompeo accelerated.
– Politico also says administration will seek short term extension of New START.
– A former IG in 2 departments explains how they do their job.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 16
– The other side gets a vote, too. China is withholding shipments of medical supplies to US.
– China may be violating nuclear test ban.
– Pres. Trump complains about stalled nominations. Here are the facts.
– He also wants to do recess appointments. Here’s a CRS backgrounder.
I warned about this. SBA lacks people and processes to handle small business loans.
And there’s disarray in the search for treatments and vaccines.
– Politico says Trump has “hobbled US AID.“
– BTW, DOD wants to let retirees become lobbyists sooner, contrary to McCain law.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
-NYT says Iran has enough fuel for a bomb.
– Trump talks with a Taliban leader, while the US strikes at Taliban.
– David Ignatius warns of trouble in Jordan.
– EU supports Greek efforts to seal border.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A non-election
Iran’s majles (parliament) elections are tomorrow. They are not free or fair, despite the extraordinary number of candidates, since the Guardian Council gets to determine who runs. It has nixed something like 60% of the candidates, most of them relative moderates or reformists. Even those prevented from running are people loyal to the Islamic Republic. None are revolutionaries, only reformers. Serious opponents of the regime are more likely to be found in the streets and in their own homes.
The outcome of the election is pre-determined: unlike 2016, conservatives will be in the majority. Supreme Leader Khamenei has been anxious to avoid another de facto vote against him, so he has stacked the deck. Any presence of reformers in the new majles will be a defeat for him. Turnout will be more interesting to watch than results. It can be hard to fake. It was around 60% the last time around. If it comes in under 50% or so, it should be interpreted as a vote of no-confidence.
It would be a mistake however to conclude even then that the regime is necessarily about to crumble, collapse, or crack. There is no sign of dissent in the security forces, who have been amply deployed to clamp down on any election-day disturbances. Protests have adopted anti-regime slogans, but they remain mostly focused on economic issues, made severe in part by US re-imposition of sanctions.
That and the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have hardened the regime significantly. The conservatives who argued that the US couldn’t be trusted to implement the nuclear deal have been proven correct. Khamenei has tried to rally Iranians around a flag of resistance. The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani has made that easier. There has been no serious difficulty restricting the candidates. The Supreme Leader will emerge from these elections with a far more compliant and conservative majles, and good prospects for conservatives in next year’s presidential election. For details on the personalities and geography involved, see this primer.
It is beyond me how this hardening of the Iranian regime serves US interests. It incentivizes Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, for which financing will always be available. Even a collapse of the regime would pose enormous difficulties for Washington, as Iran is a multiethnic state whose Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Balochis and others would likely seek at least the self-governance they have been denied in the Islamic Republic, if not outright independence or union with neighboring states. Iran is a country of more than 80 million people. The results could be catastrophic.
It’s a non-election, but there should be no joy in that.
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Stevenson’s army, February 6
– FP says political ambassadors are forcing out career DCMs.
-NY Fed report warns of cyber attack consequences.
-IAEA says no new Iranian violations of JCPOA.
-Navy has greatly increased FONOPS in South China Sea.
-Here’s a report on the House defense panel hearing on defense innovation.
-AP reports on the slow-motion divorce from Iraqi military.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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