Tag: Nuclear weapons
An eloquent day
The day has overflowed with high-minded eloquence: Obama at the General Assembly and the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) and Romney at the CGI All solid, well-thought-through presentations. Obama focused on universal values and aspirations at the UNGA, then on human trafficking at the CGI. Romney focused on improving the way in which we provide assistance internationally.
I can’t really fault much of what either said. I agree with Obama that the violence we’ve seen in the past two weeks is inexcusable, that the video precipitating the demonstrations that killed American diplomats as well as dozens of Muslims is reprehensible, that our values nevertheless prevent it from being suppressed and also require an end to human trafficking. I also agree with his support for the Arab awakening and in particular for an end to Bashar al Assad’s reign of terror in Syria. I agree with Romney that we need to reshape foreign assistance so that it creates conditions for private initiative and growth, which too often it does not.
The real significance is, as usual, in what they did not say. Obama offered no new ideas or action on Syria. He did not mention North Korea and touched only once on Pakistan. I imagine Pyongyang got off easy because there are growing signs of economic reform there, and less bellicosity. It is hard to say anything nice about the People’s Republic, so better not to say anything. That’s more or less the case with reprobate Pakistan as well: the billions poured into its coffers seem to have bought neither economic development nor friendship. I’d like to see Romney’s approach to foreign aid applied in Pakistan. It is unlikely to be less fruitful than what we’ve done in the past, under both Democratic and Republican administrations.
There was no easing of the President’s rhetoric or substantive position on the Iranian nuclear program. He rules out containment and makes it clear the United States will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Romney may doubt his credibility, but I don’t. I think the United States is sliding inexorably towards being locked into military action against Iran if diplomacy fails, which it well might. Both political parties have staked out strong positions that will push any president in the direction of war if Iran moves definitively to build a nuclear weapon. That is a very good reason to make the diplomatic push as strong as possible, since war with Iran is not going to be a simple matter.
As for Romney, he may have a grand new vision of American foreign assistance, but little or no financing for it if Paul Ryan’s budget plans come to fruition. Unlike his grand critique of Obama, Romney’s aid ideas are well-crafted. Too bad none of it would be likely to happen if he were to become president. If Obama is smart–and there is every indication he is that–he’ll poach a bit from the Romney ideas in his second term. It won’t be plagiarism–these are ideas floating around already and in part adopted over the past four years. But Obama could and should be a lot bolder in demanding from aid recipients the kinds of serious reform that Romney alludes to.
So there is little new ground broken in today’s eloquence, but a good deal to suggest that a bipartisan foreign policy is not so far out of reach, even in our highly polarized times. That would be refreshing.
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This week’s peace picks
It’s a busy week, with lots of variety:
1. Pulling Pakistan out of Economic Crisis, Monday September 24, 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, Sixth Floor
Speakers: Shahid Javed Burki, Parvez Hasan, Eric Manes, Aisha Pasha
This event marks the release of a new study on Pakistan’s economy. It is produced by Beaconhouse National University’s Institute of Public Policy, based in Lahore, Pakistan.
2. Russian-Iranian Relations: Implications for U.S. Policy, Monday September 24, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, Sixth Floor
Speaker: Mark N. Katz
Moscow does not want to see Tehran acquire nuclear weapons. Despite this, Russia has been reluctant to cooperate much with the U.S. in preventing this. In his talk, Mark N. Katz, Professor of Government and Politics, George Mason University, and former Title VIII-Supported Research and Short-Term Scholar, Kennan Institute, will discuss why this is.
3. The Myanmar Conference @ CSIS, Tuesday September 15, 8:00 AM – 4:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 conference facility
Speakers: Jim Webb, Kurt Campbell, Christopher Johnson, David Steinberg, Salai Ngun Cung Lian, Tin Maung Maung Than, Ernie Bower, Serge Pun, David Dapice, Shigehiro Tanaska, Elizabeth Hernandez, Mathew Goodman, Stephen Groff, Christopher Herink, Thomas Dillon, Gregory Beck, Murray Hiebert, Michael Green
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will host a select and high-level group of experts and senior policy makers for The Myanmar Conference @ CSIS, to be held September 25, 2012, at the CSIS B1 conference facility. We have recruited a world-class group of experts to kick off the on-the-record dialogue around four key themes:
i. Political and Security Developments in Myanmar
ii. Trade, Investment, and Infrastructure
iii. Humanitarian Situation and Foreign Assistance
iv. Conclusions: Recommendations for U.S. Policy toward Myanmar
The conference is being organized around the time of the visits of Myanmar President Thein Sein and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to the United States in late September. There is great interest to explore the implications for U.S. policy in the wake of the political and economic reforms in Myanmar and the recent easing of U.S. sanctions ahead of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections in November.
Register for this event here.
4. Ambassador Cameron Munter on Pakistan, Tuesday September 25, 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Cameron Munter
In one of his first public event since returning from Islamabad, Ambassador Cameron Munter will deliver an address on the challenges and opportunities ahead in Pakistan. Frederic Grare will moderate.
Register for this event here.
5. Campaign 2012: Arab Awakening, Tuesday September 25, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Benjamin Wittes, Stephanie Gaskell, Raj M. Desai, Shadi Hamid, Tamara Cofman Wittes
Following the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and the death of U.S. Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens, the United States is weighing its position and policies in the post-Arab Spring Middle East. More than a year after the initial Arab uprisings, the United States is questioning the state of its relations with the nascent Arab democracies and the emerging Islamist regimes. As the second anniversary of the Arab revolutions approaches, political and economic instability persists alongside growing anti-American sentiment, forcing the United States to adapt its policies to the evolving landscape in the Middle East. With the U.S. election just over six weeks away, many American voters are questioning the presidential candidates’ foreign policy strategies toward the region and wondering how the volatility in the Middle East and North Africa will affect the United States in the months and years ahead.
On September 25, the Campaign 2012 project at Brookings will hold a discussion on the Arab Awakening, the tenth in a series of forums that will identify and address the 12 most critical issues facing the next president. POLITICO Pro defense reporter Stephanie Gaskell will moderate a panel discussion where Brookings experts Tamara Cofman Wittes, Shadi Hamid and Raj Desai will present recommendations to the next president.
Register for this event here.
6. Georgia on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections, Tuesday September 25, 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Carnegie Conference Center
Speakers: Thomas de Waal, Mamuka Tsereteli, Cory Welt
On October 1, Georgia votes in a parliamentary election which is set to be its most important and closely-watched contest since the Rose Revolution of 2003. The election is also a shadow leadership election, and its outcome will determine who becomes the leader of the country when a new constitution takes effect next year, as the second term of current president Mikheil Saakashvili ends.
The governing party, the United National Movement, is facing a strong challenge from the recently formed opposition Georgian Dream coalition, led by Bidzina Ivanishvili. The political temperature is high as both sides are predicting victory and exchanging claims and counter-claims about the conduct of the election.
Register for this event here.
7. 2012 African Economic Outlook Report, Wednesday September 26, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, Atlantic Council
Venue: Atlantic Council, 1101 15th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, 11th Floor
Speakers: Todd Moss, Mthuli Ncube, Mwangi Kimenyi, John Simon, J. Peter Pham
The Atlantic Council’s Michael S. Ansari Africa Center and the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution are pleased to invite you to a panel discussion on the findings of the 2012 African Economic Outlook (AEO) report. The AEO is a collaborative effort of the African Development Bank, the Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United Nations Development Program, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The annual report surveys and analyzes the economic performance of fifty-three African countries, including, for the first time, Eritrea and newly independent South Sudan.
This year’s report focuses on a critical area of the continent’s socio-economic development: youth unemployment and education. Youth unemployment has been a persistent problem for a majority of African countries and a formidable obstacle to economic growth and stability. Youth dissatisfaction played a major role in the escalation of political unrest in North Africa in the past year, which resulted in a significant decrease in economic growth in the region. Given Africa’s rapidly growing population, the demographic pressure on labor markets in African countries will continue to increase. If African countries commit to education and skills training, however, Africa’s youth bulge could become a significant competitive advantage in a rapidly aging world.
Mthuli Ncube, chief economist and vice president of the African Development Bank, will provide brief remarks on the reports’ findings and broader implications for Africa’s future, followed by a panel discussion. Panelists will discuss the many unpredictable factors threatening the continent’s economic growth offer brief remarks and policy recommendations for African nations before opening the floor to a question and answer session.
RSVP for this event to achuck@acus.org.
8. Will the Monarchs Reform? Challenges to Democracy in the Gulf, Wednesday September 26, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Project on Middle East Democracy at SEIU
Venue: SEIU, 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036, First Floor Conference Room
Speakers: Maryam al-Khawaja, Les Campbell, Kristin Diwan, Stephen McInerney
While 2011 and 2012 have witnessed unprecedented changes across the Middle East and North Africa, the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates – have not been shaken to the same degree, with the notable exception of Bahrain. Nonetheless, the dramatic uprisings across the region have had a clear impact on both the populations and governments of the Gulf, and it is worth examining political developments and the state of human rights in these countries.
How have the uprisings and political changes in other Arab countries been perceived by both the governments and citizens of the GCC? What steps have been taken by these governments to prevent similar changes from happening in their own countries, and how have these steps been received both domestically and internationally? What, if any, steps toward democratic reform have been taken, and what future actions might we expect from Gulf governments with regard to reform? How have the GCC governments changed their approach toward their citizens, civil society organizations, media outlets, and labor unions? How have the dramatic political changes in the region affected relations between the U.S. and the governments and people of the Gulf? And how can the U.S. and other international actors engage with the Gulf in a manner that helps its citizens realize their democratic aspirations?
Register for this event here.
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This week’s peace picks
The dog days of summer are over as far as DC events are concerned
1. A Conversation with Rudwan Dawod on his Incarceration in The Sudan, Tuesday September 4, 2:00pm-3:30pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004, fifth floor conference room
Speakers: Rudwan Dawod, Tom Prichard, Michael Van Dusen
The Africa Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center would like to invite you to a presentation by Rudwan Dawod on Tuesday, September 4. Rudwan has been the facilitator for reconciliation and humanitarian projects with Sudan Sunrise since 2009, and is the project director for a reconciliation project in which Muslims from Sudan, South Sudan and the U.S. are rebuilding a Catholic Cathedral in Torit, South Sudan. In late May, Rudwan left his wife and home in Springfield, Oregon to travel to South Sudan to direct this inter-faith reconciliation project. During a lull in the project, Rudwan took a side trip to visit family in Sudan, and renew his Sudanese Passport. Concerned for the future of his country, and dedicated to peace and democracy, Rudwan attended a peaceful demonstration on July 3rd to protest the Sudanese government’s recent austerity policies, and ongoing violence in the Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile, and Darfur. Subsequently, Rudwan was arrested, beaten until unconscious, tortured, charged with terrorism, and retained in prison for 44 days. With the help of the advocacy community, the US government, and the media, Rudwan was eventually acquitted and released. Please join us to welcome Rudwan home and hear him tell his remarkable story.
Register for this event here.
2. Organizing the U.S. Government to Counter Islamist Extremism, Wednesday September 5, 12:00pm-2:00pm
Venue: Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: James Glassman, Will Marshall, Douglas J. Feith, William A. Galston, Abram N. Shulsky
Lunch will be served. For all the progress the United States has made in fighting terrorist networks, there has been a general failure to confront the terrorism problem’s ideological center of gravity. A new Hudson Institute study examines how the U.S. government could mount an effort to address this failure by working to change the ideological climate in the Muslim world. The study identifies which types of governmental and nongovernmental organizations should be created to conduct this effort. Produced by Douglas J. Feith and Abram N. Shulsky of Hudson Institute and William A. Galston of Brookings, the study argues that the various Islamist terrorist groups around the world are linked by ideology— common beliefs about their duties as Muslims that spawn and intensify hostility to the United States and to the West in general. You are invited to a panel discussion in which two distinguished commentators will discuss the report with its authors: Commentators: James Glassman, Executive Director of the George W. Bush Institute and former Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs in the George W. Bush Administration Will Marshall, Founder and President of the Progressive Policy Institute Authors: Douglas J. Feith, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the George W. Bush Administration William A. Galston, Brookings Institution Ezra K. Zilkha Chair in Governance Studies and former Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Policy Abram N. Shulsky, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow and former Defense Department official.
Register for this event here.
3. An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings, Wednesday September 5, 7:30pm-9:00pm
Venue: Al-Hewar Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA 22180
Speakers: Ashraf Al-Bayoumi
A conversation with Dr. Ashraf Al-Bayoumi. Egyptian professor and activist, about “An Egyptian Point of View about the Arab Uprisings.” (in Arabic)
Register for this event here
4. Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa, Thursday September 6, 8:30am-11:ooam
Venue: City Club of Washington, DC, 555 13th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Carl Kress, Randa Fahmy Hudome, Steven Mayo, Deborah McCarthy, Cenk Sidar, Curtis Silvers, John Duke Anthony
A discussion on “Infrastructure and Business Opportunities in North Africa” featuring Mr. Carl Kress, Regional Director for the Middle East, North Africa and Europe Region, U.S. Trade and Development Agency; Ms. Randa Fahmy Hudome, President, Fahmy Hudome International; Mr. Steven Mayo, Business Development Officer, Project and Structured Finance, Export-Import Bank of the United States; Ms. Deborah McCarthy, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Finance and Development, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, U.S. Department of State; Mr. Cenk Sidar, Founder and Managing Director, Sidar Global Advisors; and Mr. Curtis Silvers, Executive Vice President, National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce; moderated by Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; Member, U.S. Department of State Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy and its subcommittees on Sanctions and Trade and Investment.
Register for this event here.
5. CISSM Forum: ‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations,’ Thursday September 6, 12:15pm-1:3opm
Venue: University of Maryland, College Park, 7950 Baltimore Avenue, College Park, MD, 1203 Van Munching Hall
Speakers: Stephen P. Cohen
‘The Future of Indo-Pak Relations’, Stephen P. Cohen, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Register for this event here.
6. When ‘Ordinary People’ Join In: Understanding Moments of Mass Mobilization in Argentina (2001), Egypt (2011), and Ukraine (2004), Thursday September 6, 4:00pm-5:00pm
Venue: Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Voesar Conference Room
Speakers: Olga Onuch
Olga Onuch, Newton Prize Fellow in Comparative Politics, University of Oxford This presentation examines the differences between moments of mass-mobilization and the long term process of activist mobilization that precedes them. Ukraine in 2004, Egypt in 2011, and Argentina in 2001 represent cases where a history of activist coordination was the basis for, and key instrument in, the mobilization of ‘ordinary’ people. The presenter will argue against the predominant focus on exogenous and economic factors and instead emphasize local actors and political variables in explaining the presence or absence of mass-mobilization. Part of IERES Petrach Program on Ukraine. Sponsored by the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies.
Register for this event here.
7. The Arab Awakening and its Implications, Thursday September 6, 6:oopm-7:oopm
Venue: Georgetown School of Foreign Service, 37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC, ICC Auditorium
Speaker: Dennis Ross
Returning PJC faculty member, Ambassador Dennis Ross, will present a lecture on ‘The Arab Awakening and its Implications’.
RSVP requested. A light reception will follow.
Register for this event here.
8. Will the Ongoing Nuclear Talks with Iran Yield Better Results than Past Efforts? Friday September 7, 10:00am-12:00pm
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Trita Parsi, Mustafa Kibaroglu, Monica Herz, Michael Adler, Robert S. Litwak
The pursuit of an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program remains at the top of the nonproliferation agenda. The unsuccessful mediation effort led by Brazil and Turkey in May 2010 was followed by the adoption of more economic sanctions by the international community. Last April, the government of Iran resumed negotiations with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council, plus Turkey and Germany. Four meetings have taken place in Switzerland, Turkey, and Russia. Talks are expected to continue after the U.S. presidential elections. Five experts will take stock of the negotiations in comparison with earlier efforts. Experts who participated in a February 2011 seminar on the Brazilian-Turkish mediation will return to the Wilson Center to assess the ongoing negotiations and possible outcomes.
Register for this event here.
9. Road to a Free Syria: Should “Responsibility to Protect” Apply to the Syrian Conflict? Friday, September 7, 12:00-2:00
Venue: Hudson Institute, 15 15th Street, N.W. 6th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
Speakers: Marah Bukai, Naser Khader, Nasser Rabbat, Kert Werthmuller
‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P)—a widely acknowledged principle of international relations—holds that the State carries the primary responsibility for the protection of its population from mass atrocities and, moreover, that the international community has a responsibility to assist States in fulfilling this responsibility. A panel of distinguished experts will discuss the applicability of R2P to the Syrian conflict while shedding light on current events inside Syria, international reactions to those events, and projections for securing a stable and prosperous post-Assad Syria. Panelists: Marah Bukai, Syrian poet, Consultant, U.S. Department of State, and political activist involved in the Syrian revolution
Naser Khader, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute, and former Member of the Danish Parliament
Nasser Rabbat, Aga Khan Professor and the Director of the Aga Khan Program for Islamic Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Moderator: Kurt Werthmuller, Research Fellow, Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom
Register for this event here.
10. Stabilizing the Sinai, Churches for International Peace, Friday September 7, 12:00pm-1:30pm
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Art Hughes, Geoffrey Aronson
Rising lawlessness and violence and an increasing death toll in the Sinai Peninsula by terrorist and criminal elements since the fall of the Mubarak regime threaten the security of Egypt, Israel, and their 1979 peace treaty. The unresolved competition over governance in Egypt between the Muslim Brotherhood government led by President Mohammed Morsi on one hand and the Egyptian army on the other are complicating factors, as is the continued Israeli closure of Gaza, whose Hamas government has strong ties to the Egyptian Brotherhood.
Ambassador (ret.) Art Hughes and Geoffrey Aronson will discuss the stakes for all the parties, including the U.S., and suggest what is needed to restore peace in the Sinai.
Register for this event here.
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This week’s peace picks
1. Indonesia’s Performance and Prospects, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Tuesday August 28, 12:00pm-2:00pm
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Indonesia—the fourth most populous nation on earth and the world’s largest Muslim country—is a vibrant, decentralized democracy that has enjoyed rapid and resilient economic growth. What explains this success and will it continue? What impact, if any, will the 2014 presidential elections have on the country’s political and economic direction?
James Castle and William Wallace will join Carnegie’s Vikram Nehru to discuss Indonesia’s political and economic performance, as well as its prospects and challenges.
RSVP for this event here
2. Turkey’s Partnership for Security: The Next Phase, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Tuesday August 28, 12:00pm-2:00pm
Venue: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 901 N. Stuart Street, Suite 200, Arlington, VA 22203
The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies’ International Center for Terrorism Studies will host a panel discussion, “Turkey’s Partnership for Security: The Next Phase,” from 12 noon – 2 pm on Tuesday, August 28, at the Institute. Co-sponsors of this event include the Inter-University Center for Terrorism Studies and the Inter-University Center for Legal Studies of the International Law Institute. Attendance is by registration only; please see below for details.
Program:
Moderator:
Prof. Yonah Alexander
Director, International Center for Terrorism Studies, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Panelists:
Prof. Sinan Ciddi
Executive Director, Institute for Turkish Studies, Georgetown University
Dr. Harold Rhode
Former Specialist for Middle Eastern Affairs, Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon
Additional panelists TBA
Closing Remarks:
Prof. Don Wallace, Jr.
Chairman, International Law Institute
Registration is required for general audience and press attendance. Please provide name and affiliation to Evan Lundh, Research Coordinator, icts@potomacinstitute.org or 703-562-4522.
3. Reality vs. Myth: What it’s Like to Live and Work in Post-Conflict Settings, Young Professionals in Foreign Policy, Tuesday August 28, 6:30pm-8:30pm
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
Featuring:
Doug Brooks, Preisdent
The founder of the International Stability Operations Association, he is a specialist in African security issues and has written extensively on the regulation and constructive utilization of the private sector for international stabilization, peacekeeping, and humanitarian missions.
Jessica Mueller , Director, Programs & Operations
Editor-in-Chief, Stability Operations Magazine
As part of the leadership team at ISOA, Jessica is responsible for managing the Association’s programs and operations including communications, advocacy efforts, events, member committees and standards. As the Editor-in-Chief of the Stability Operations Magazine, she is responsible for content, design and distribution.
Jason Kennedy, Manager, Membership & Business Development
Jason works on the ISOA leadership team to oversee member services, develop membership, and coordinate opportunites for members, potential members and strategic partners to engage with the Association and the stability operations industry. His responsibilities span membership, business development, marketing/communications and partnership building.
Naveed Bandali, Business Development Manager for the Pax Mondial Group
Naveed Bandali is Business Development Manager for the Pax Mondial Group, an international operational support and capacity building firm that specializes in risk management, construction, medical services, and mine action & training services.
RSVP for this event here
4. Inside Iran’s Nuclear Program, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Wednesday, August 29, 12:00-2:00pm
Venue: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW Suite 1050, Washington, D.C. 20036Stern Library and Conference Room
At a time when the possibility of military action against Iran’s nuclear program is being hotly debated, a clear understanding of what Tehran can do and what it may be hiding is vital. To better inform this discussion, The Washington Institute and the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University are copublishing a detailed, comprehensive, and interactive online glossary of terms related to Iran’s nuclear program and possible weaponization work. The new study, to be released this week, comes out just when the International Atomic Energy Agency is distributing its latest report on Iran in advance of the September 10 IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna.
To discuss the new publication and the latest news on Iran’s nuclear activities, The Washington Institute will host a Policy Forum luncheon with the authors, Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson.
Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center, previously served as deputy director-general and head of the Department of Safeguards at the IAEA, inspecting nuclear facilities in Iran and other countries.
Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. He has lived in both Pakistan and Iran and has written extensively on nuclear proliferation.
The event will be broadcast via livestream starting at 12:30pm here
RSVP for this event here
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On course for war with Iran
Ilona Gerbakher reports from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies:
Yesterday’s Middle East Institute panel at SAIS presented a report on “Prospects for US-Iran Relations on the Nuclear Issue in the Year Ahead.” The predominant mood was tempered pessimism. War is a real possibility, so it behooves us to redouble diplomatic efforts.
Alan Keiswetter (a scholar at the Middle East Institute, senior consultant at C&O Resources and an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland) thought the nuclear negotiations stalemated and likely to remain that way until after the U.S. election. The parameters of a possible agreement are clear: enrichment allowed up to a low level (3.5-5%) combined with strict safeguards and shipment out of Iran of its more highly enriched uranium.
But it is unclear whether Iran wants a negotiated solution or is just stringing along the negotiations to gain more time. Sanctions alone are unlikely to force agreement, as Iran is ready to hunker down as necessary. Some kind of meatier inducement is going to be needed.
Calls in the Israeli government for military action are growing louder and more strident. Israel perceives an Iranian nuclear capability as an existential threat. The debate among Israelis is no longer “will we strike” but “will the strike be effective enough.” It would be a serious mistake to dismiss the possibility of a unilateral Israeli attack. Some Israel watchers say Prime Minister Netyanyahu thinks he can do what he wants without U.S. concurrence; others feel he is bluffing, to force the U.S. to take a hard line and scare Iran into concessions.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is more united in fear of Iranian pretensions in the Gulf than the Iranians imagine.
Next year will be a real turning point in US-Iran relations over the nuclear issue. Without significant diplomatic progress, the trajectory we are on will lead to military confrontation.
Geneive Abdo, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, contrasted the current tense diplomatic situation with Iran-US relations in 2003, when Tehran cooperated on Afghanistan and was more open to negotiation but Washington was not. Supreme Leader Khamenei sent a letter to then-President Bush proposing a diplomatic breakthrough. Today even a minimal goal of building trust with Iran seems hard to reach. Iranian leaders are convinced that the ultimate U.S. goal is regime change. Khamenei’s hardline conspiratorial beliefs about the U.S. are self-fulfilling prophecies.
The Revolutionary Guard, which has grown powerful under Khamenei, no longer bothers to hide its regional interventions in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere. Although arguably they stand the most to lose from sanctions, a military attack on Iran would serve their interests by reaffirming their ideological position.
Also troubling is the decline of Iran’s educated middle class. Those who once called for reform and might have questioned the nuclear program are marginalized. They were our best hope for breaking three decades of hostility but their voices have been silenced. An attack led by the U.S. or Israel would stifle prospects for democratic reform even further.
Israel is not helping matters with its increasingly hardline rhetoric. The way is being paved for it to appear that all options except an Israel-led attack have been eliminated. Don’t expect President Obama to take action until after the election. The best diplomatic option for the moment seems to be to buy more time.
Roby Barrett, the president of a consulting firm specializing in defense and security technology applications, was dismissive of the possibility of a diplomatic solution because “Iran is not really interested in negotiation.” For Iranian leaders and citizens the nuclear program has become a point of national pride. Iran sees nuclear capability as a part of its destiny as a regional power in the Gulf.
The GCC has resigned itself to the fact that Iran will not give up nuclear weapons capability and that the U.S. will need to do something about it. The alternatives are either a nuclear Iran or war. Despite the consequent global economic disturbance, the GCC wants the Iranian nuclear program stopped by hook or by crook. The idea of a nuclear Iran is a redline issue for most Arab states.
We should “never say never,” but diplomatic efforts will probably not stop the march towards war. Given the calcifying hardline between the Israeli and Iranian positions and the distance between America and Israel on this issue, there is a high probability an Israeli attack will go forward. It is unlikely that the U.S. will initiate a strike or engage cooperatively with Israel.
Israel knows they don’t have the military capacity to cripple Iran’s nuclear program. If they strike, it will be in desperation, with the objective of bringing the U.S. into the conflict. That is possible if Iranian retaliation makes the mistake of striking back at the U.S.
In closing, Genieve Abdo raised a vital point: what will happen the morning after? What will be the economic and military fallout of an attack? Will an attack have to be repeated to prevent an intensified Iranian effort to gain nuclear weapons? What are the implications of repeated attacks on Iran?
Daniel Serwer, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and a senior research professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, acted as moderator. He noted that some countries have stood back from nuclear programs, including Brazil and Argentina. Iran is a more difficult case, because Israel will not give up its nuclear weapons and there are several other potential nuclear powers in the region. But if Iran thinks hard about what nuclear weapons might mean for its own security as well as long-term regional and economic stability, it may conclude they are not a good idea.
PS: The video of the event can be downloaded from C-Span.
PPS: Bennett Ramberg comes to similar conclusions.
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This week’s peace picks
1. Prospects for U.S.-Iran Relations on the Nuclear Issue in the Years Ahead, Tuesday August 13, 3:30pm-5:00pm
Venue: 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036
The Middle East Institute is proud to present its new MEI Scholar Insight. Entitled ‘Prospects for U.S.-Iran Relations on the Nuclear Issue in the Year Ahead,’ this publication draws upon the broad expertise of 20 Middle East Institute scholars and outside guest experts to examine three scenarios for Iran: diplomacy, containment, and military action. Over two roundtable sessions, participants analyzed U.S. policy, Iranian policy, Israel’s role in regard to the scenarios, reactions to prospective scenarios by the GCC states, Russia, and the other members of the P5+1, and the energy markets. The resulting report is a composite of MEI Scholar analysis on the above issues and seeks to capture points of substantial agreement as well as of divergence. Please join us for the launch of this MEI featured publication and a discussion with principal authors Allen Keiswetter and Roby Barrett and contributors Geneive Abdo and Melissa Mahle.
Register for the event here
2. Celebrating Future Sudanese Leaders, Wednesday August 15, 5:30pm-8:30pm
Venue: Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052602, Lindner Commons
Join Banaa.org for an evening ceremony: Celebrating Future Sudanese Leaders. The ceremony will honor Banaa Scholars, who will share their personal experiences, their motivations and their visions for peace and development in Sudan. The event will also feature interactive discussion about the Banaa Scholarship Program and its objective to leverage the energy at US universities to promote cross-cultural understanding and to foster leadership among talented young Sudanese. This will be the concluding event of the first annual Banaa Summer Summit held at the George Washington University in Washington DC.
Register for the event here
3. BBG Research Series: Nigeria Media Use 2012, Thursday, August 16, 9:00am-10:00am
Venue: Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street NW (Entrance on 9th Street), Washington, DC 20004
The Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) and Gallup invite you to attend the BBG Research Series briefing, Nigeria Media Use 2012. The BBG and Gallup will unveil new findings about media consumption habits in Nigeria, including strong growth of digital media and the continued popularity of radio.
The country’s longstanding digital media gap has largely disappeared as mobile phone use has exploded nationwide, and Nigerians in the northern regions are more likely than ever before to turn to TV (67%), the Internet (20%), and SMS messages (45%) for news and information. The new research also reveals that Nigerians remain avid radio listeners, with 88% listening to the radio for news and information weekly or more frequently. Additionally, a growing number of mobile phone users (39%) in the north have used phones to listen to radio in the last week. In terms of content, the vast majority (83%) of Nigerians indicate a strong interest in health and healthcare issues.
Speakers will include:
• Chris Stewart, Senior Managing Consultant, Gallup
• Bruce Sherman, Director of Strategy and Development, BBG
• Robert Tortora, Chief Methodologist and Regional Research Director for Africa, Gallup
• William Bell, Research Director, International Broadcasting Bureau
The event will include a presentation of the key findings from the study, as well as a methodological overview and a review of historical media trends in Nigeria.
Register for the event here
4. Iraq and the Politics of Oil, Middle East Institute, Thursday August 16, 3:00pm-4:45pm
Venue: 1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036
The Middle East Institute is proud to host a discussion about Iraq’s oil sector with Naufel Al-Hassan, Raad Al Kadiri, and Denise Natali. Iraq’s crude oil production is recovering, producing a significant jump in oil exports in 2012. And yet the growth in Iraq’s oil sector has exacerbated longstanding challenges, aggravating tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurds and fostering accusations of patronage and corruption on both sides. How has the Iraqi government benefited from the recovery of Iraq’s oil industry? What hope is there of Baghdad and Erbil reaching an agreement over how to divide or share resources? What are the opportunities and challenges faced by international oil companies seeking to do business in Iraq? These are among some of the issues to be addressed by this distinguished panel.
Speakers:
Naufel Al-Hassan
Raad Al Kadiri
Denise Natali
Moderator:
Allen Keiswetter
Register for the event here
5. Religious Extremism in Africa: The Case of Nigeria, Thursday August 16, 2:00pm-3:00pm
Venue: Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue Northeast, Washington, DC
Since his election to the position of Primate, the Most Reverend Okoh has seen a rising tide of violence throughout his home country of Nigeria. He has witnessed firsthand the damage and destruction caused by Boko Haram and has had to deal directly with their country-wide insurgency. Given the Archbishop’s leadership of the largest Anglican Province in the world – 22 million Anglicans in Nigeria (including President Goodluck Jonathan) – and his engagement with national and international governments and leaders concerning the religious conflict in Nigeria, Primate Okoh offers a unique viewpoint on the escalating violence that is occurring throughout Nigeria at the hands of Boko Haram. Primate Okoh will examine the major factors that are contributing to this violence, with a particular focus on the religious ideology that drives Boko Haram to target churches and civilians throughout Nigeria.
Register for the event here
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