Tag: Pakistan
The Pakistan rollercoaster
Pakistan is in a period of neither high promise nor crisis. An expert group of independent academics, policy analysts, and retired government has taken the opportunity to lay out a range of concrete proposals for US policymakers to shape the bilateral relations. On March 3, the Middle East Institute hosted a panel discussion with some of the participants on “Pathways to a Stable and Sustainable Relationship between Pakistan and the United States.” The discussion featured eight speakers:
Syed Mohammed Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan studies, MEI
William Milam: Former US Ambassador to Pakistan
Touqir Hussain: Visiting professor at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities
Dana Marshall: President, Transnational Strategy Group
Polly Nayak: Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Institute
Pakistan-US relations
Feierstein described US-Pakistan relations as a mistrust-driven roller coaster while Siddiqui emphasized economic cooperation, culture exchange, and regional development, following a period of security focus in the 2000s. Weinbaum thinks relations have been unstable, waxing and waning, climbing to heights of interdependence and sinking to mutual recrimination. Hussain attributed the unsustainability to contradictions in strategic interests, which led to the 1998-2001 US sanctions on Pakistan.
Why now?
Weinbaum noted that today is a period of calm without major crises in the region. It’s an opportune moment to improve cooperation and put the relationship on a solid footing. We should seek better understanding as well as awareness of differences. Pakistan is critical to US regional interests in terms of eradicating ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates, achieving a stable Afghanistan, and alleviating the threat of nuclear proliferation. Hussain added that while the US is withdrawing from Afghanistan, it should continue its proactive engagement with South Asia, maintaining good relations with both India and Pakistan in the long run. Both Nayak and Milam believe the period before the upcoming election is an opportunity to address key issues in specific areas.
What the proposals are about?
Ali said the proposals focusing on Pakistan-US strategic interests, including recommendations on intelligence sharing between US and Pakistan, counterterrorism cooperation, peace between Pakistan and India, the US role in crisis management, China’s investments in Pakistan, clean energy, US investments, etc. The proposals aim to balance security with civil society and human rights, which can increase US diplomatic status in the region.
Nayak believes nuclear weapons should not be the heart of rebuilding relations. Normalization should rely on strategic economic cooperation because Pakistan faces deficits and underemployment. The proposals attempt to expand business and navigate differences in corporate and social culture.
Marshall stated that Pakistan needs more commercial and economic opportunities. Establishing a reconstruction zone could incentivize investment on border zone between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US can leverage its strategic relations with Pakistan by tying trade to security.
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Peace Picks|February 2-8
- Syria’s Tragedy, Our Lessons| March 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Middle East Program and Humanitarian Agenda are pleased to host David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss the current crisis in Idlib, the dangerous lessons of war, and how Syria could serve as a model for future conflicts.
Jacob Kurtzer, Interim Director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda, will provide welcome remarks to open the discussion. Mr. Miliband’s keynote address will be followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
David Miliband: President and CEO, International Rescue Committee
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security; Director of the Middle East Program
Jacob Kurtzer: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
- Leveraging a Moment of Change: Pathways to a Sustainable U.S.-Pakistan Relationship | March 3, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has never been easy or stable, and in recent years has come under increasing strain. Yet both countries have a vital stake in the maintenance of a working relationship. Several factors have complicated prospects for bilateral cooperation in the past, leading to a growing strategic divergence in how both countries view one another, and their interests vis-a-vis other regional players. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming in the Pakistan-US relationship has been that both sides have tried to address the issues between them without common frames of reference, resulting in differences of perceptions and policies.
An expert group of academics, policy analysts, and retired government officials have recently convened at the Middle East institute to study the Pakistan-US relationship. The product of their discussions is a paper that explores a range of ideas and concrete proposals designed to move the relationship in a positive and stable direction.
Speakers:
Syed Mohammad Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers| March 4, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for an event with two former North Korean soldiers as they discuss their escapes from the hermit kingdom. U.S. Representative Ted Yoho will present keynote remarks on the need for greater freedom across Asia.
Weeks before critical diplomatic talks between the Trump administration and North Korea commenced, OH Cheong Seong successfully attempted a daring escape within the heavily guarded demilitarized zone. Under gunfire, Seong, a driver in a North Korean military police unit, drove a truck to the border and crossed by foot into South Korea. For the first time in public in the United States, he will discuss his escape and the factors that compelled him to flee.
LEE Unggil, a former solider in North Korea’s 11th Corps Special Forces who escaped while completing university studies, will explain the plight of North Korean soldiers and the motivations for those seeking freedom.
Panelists will give insight into what life is like inside the country and describe why so many North Koreans, if given the choice, would choose freedom.
Speakers:
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Colonel Steve Lee, U.S. Army (Ret.): Senior Vice President, Korea Defense Veterans Associations
OH Cheong Song: Former Driver in the North Korean Panmunjom Military Police Unit of the Operations Bureau
LEE Unggil: Former Member of the North Korean People’s Army 11th Corps Special Forces and Member of the North Korean People’s Liberation Front
Congressman Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative, Florida’s 3rd District, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation
- The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security| March 4, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
On January 8, President Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on U.S. positions in Iraq. Buried in his speech was a fascinating aside. The president argued that:
“…America has achieved energy independence … these historic accomplishments changed our strategic priorities … we are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil.”
Yet the Trump administration’s own policies in the region contradict his statement. Since 2016, the United States has doubled down on its military presence in the Middle East, adding more than 14,000 troops to a region already full of U.S. bases. And the Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran that uses oil-focused sanctions in an attempt to weaken Iran’s regional influence and perhaps even topple the regime.
The Iran crisis thus highlights the changing relationship between U.S. foreign policy and global oil markets. If — as the president suggests — the United States is indeed energy independent, why have our strategic priorities not changed? Why do we remain overcommitted to the Middle East? And what can sanctions on Iran tell us about the increasing weaponization of global markets by U.S. policymakers?
Speakers:
Rosemary Kelanic: Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Ellan Wald: President, Transversal Consulting
Joshua Rovner: Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University
Emma Ashford: Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- Why Should the US Care about Ukraine | March 4, 2020 | 2:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Throughout the recent impeachment hearings, witness after witness claimed that support for Ukraine is obviously in US national interests, without clearly explaining why. In response, on December 22, 2019, The National Interest published an article by George Beebe in which he compared current US policy toward Ukraine to the “groupthink” that led to disastrous US policies in Vietnam. Ambassador John Herbst responded to Beebe, arguing that the United States has vital strategic interests in maintaining a strong partnership with Ukraine.
For the first time, Ambassador John Herbst and Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, face off against George Beebe, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for National Interest, and Dr. Will Ruger, Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute and Vice President for Research, Charles Koch Foundation, in a debate. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest, will co-moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Ambassador John E. Herbst: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine; Director of Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Alina Polyakova: President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
George Beebe: Vice President ad Director of Studies, Center for National Interest
Dr. Will Ruger: Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute
- The Outlook on US-China Relations| March 4, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University SAIS | Register Here
This panel discussion will examine American policy, trade, Taiwan, and other key factors affecting the US-China relations.
Speakers:
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: Former U.S. Ambassador to China (1991-1995), USCPF Board Member
Ambassador Craig Allen: President, US-China Business Council, Former U.S. Ambassador to Brunei (2014-2018)
Robert Sutter: Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliott School, GWU
David J. Keegan: Former Deputy Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Former Director, Office of Taiwan Policy, Bureau of Eastern Asian and Pacific Affairs
- US-Brazil Economic Relations: The Path to A Trade Agreement | March 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM -12:00 PM| Atlantic Council | Register Here
The United States and Brazil have long been critical commercial partners. Now, as the United States and Brazil double down on delivering on a stronger bilateral agenda, the moment is ripe to help guide discussions on practical next steps.
What actions can Brazil and the US pursue in the short term to achieve deeper collaboration? How will those pave the way for greater growth and prosperity in both countries?
The event will also mark the launch of the report “US-Brazil Trade and FDI: Enhancing the Bilateral Economic Relationship,” authored by Ken Hyatt and Lisa Schineller on the US side and Abrão Neto and Daniel Godinho on the Brazil side.
Speakers:
The Hon. Darin Lahood: US Representative (R-IL), US Congress
Sergio Segovia: President, Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil
Nestor Forster: Appointed Ambassador of Brazil to the US
Joe Semsar: Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva: Secretary of Bilateral and Regional Negotiations in the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil
Maria Cameron: Deputy Director, Office of Latin America and the Caribbean, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Kevin O’Reilly: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State
Lisa Schroeter: Global Director of Trade & Investment Policy, Dow Chemical Company
Lisa Schineller: Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Abrão Neto: Executive Vice President, AmCham Brasil; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Kenneth Hyatt: Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former Acting Under Secretary and Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce
Jason Marczak: Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Roberta Braga: Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
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Peace Picks|January 13-19
Is an International Financial Commission Libya’s Last Hope? | January 13, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | The Middle East Institute 1763 N Street NW Washington DC | Register Here
As the battle for Tripoli rages into its ninth month and Libya’s struggle for post-Qadhafi succession enters its ninth year, international peace-making efforts remain stymied. The root causes of the country’s malaise, its flawed economic institutions and the lack of a social contract, remain unaddressed. Thus, Libya’s economic structures will continue to impede peace building or attempts to end foreign interference unless Libya’s semi-sovereign economic institutions are forced to become more transparent. This can be achieved via a Libyan-led International Financial Commission empowered with the tools to compel transparency and reform Libya’s institutions and dysfunctional incentive structure.
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a public panel featuring the UN’s Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in Libya Stephanie Williams, former Commercial Officer at the US Embassy in Tripoli Nate Mason, and former US Special Envoy to Libya Jonathan Winer. They will be participating in a discussion launching MEI Non-Resident Fellow Jason Pack’s paper, “An International Financial Commission is Libya’s Last Hope.” The event will present research on the roots of Libya’s unique forms of dysfunction and examine how the Berlin Conference process and pending Congressional legislation (the 2019 Libya Stabilization Act) can be used as correctives and incentives to move towards an economic-based approach to peacemaking in Libya.
Speakers:
Nate Mason is currently a consultant based in Washington DC, Chief of Operations and Executive Director of Strategic Advisory Solutions International, and Partner on EyeOnISISinLibya.com.
Jason Pack is a consultant, author, and commentator with over two decades of experience living in, and working on, the Middle East.
Stephanie Williams currently serves as Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in Libya, United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).
Jonathan Winer (moderator) has been the United States Special Envoy for Libya, the deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement, and counsel to United States Senator John Kerry.
What Do Tunisians Expect from Their New Government? | January 14, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
As Tunisia marks the ninth anniversary of its revolution, the country faces a new set of challenges. A new president and parliament, elected with the promise to fight corruption and improve the lives of the Tunisian people, must find a way to address the longstanding social and economic grievances that its predecessors have failed to remedy.
The Carnegie Middle East Program is pleased to host a discussion with three young Tunisian activists who will explain what Tunisians are expecting from their new leaders and what will happen if those expectations are not met. Fellow Sarah Yerkes will moderate the discussion. A light lunch will be served.
Speakers:
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in the Carnegie Middle East Program.
Amir Ben Ameur is a social activist who advocates for youth development and democracy
Aymen Abderrahmen is a program coordinator in the Leadership Division in IREX.
Oumayma Ben Abdallah is a human rights researcher and Tunisia analyst.
The Future Army in Great-Power Competition | January 14, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM | Atlantic Council 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor Washington DC | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for a public conversation on “The Future Army in Great-Power Competition” with General James C. McConville, Chief of Staff of the United States Army, as part of the Atlantic Council’s Commanders Series. The event will take place on Tuesday, January 14, 2020 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:15 a.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. However, this reassessment of national security threats, while significant, is only the first step. The maintenance of robust deterrence and defense in the coming decades will demand strategic planning, critical investments, and intelligent innovations now. Moreover, the United States must continue to confront the long-term threat posed by near-peer adversaries while navigating a variety of difficult crises and scenarios, such as current tensions with Iran. Accordingly, the US Army and the other armed services have been modernizing their capabilities and adapting their operational concepts in order to define their roles in future warfare.
As the Army’s 40th chief of staff, General McConville will join us to discuss how the Army is preparing itself for the future of geostrategic competition and military conflict. This conversation will focus on the Army’s perception of the Russian and Chinese threats, its development of Multi-Domain Operations doctrine, and its modernization efforts to incorporate new technologies.
The Commanders Series is the Atlantic Council’s flagship speakers’ forum for senior military and defense leaders. The series provides a platform to discuss current strategic issues with an impressive audience drawn from across Washington’s policy community, including think tanks, media, industry, embassies, and the US government. In 2019, the Atlantic Council hosted then-Secretary of the Army Mark T. Esper, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph F. Dunford, and then-Chief of Naval Operations John M. Richardson.
Reflections on 25 Years of US Policy in the Middle East | January 15, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM | Atlantic Council 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor Washington DC | Register Here
Join us on Wednesday, January 15, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. for a conversation with Nabeel Khoury, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and twenty-five-year member of the US Foreign Service, and Thomas L. Friedman, foreign affairs columnist for The New York Times.
The past three decades have seen massive US military and diplomatic engagements in the Middle East and events that will continue to shape the world for years to come. Why has the security environment changed so drastically for the United States in the region, and what lessons should be drawn? What does US diplomacy look like on the ground in the region right now, and are we in a position to meet our foreign policy and national security goals?
Nabeel will draw on reflections from his recently published book, Bunker Diplomacy: An Arab-American in the U.S. Foreign Service: Personal Reflections on 25 Years of US Policy in the Middle East.
The Prospects for U.S.-Russia Arms Control | January 15, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Center for Strategic International Studies 2nd Floor Conference Room 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
With the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and an unclear future for New START, U.S.-Russian arms control is in dire condition. Some experts in both capitals question the feasibility or necessity of further bilateral arms control. However, any U.S. and Russian administration will face the task of managing its own arsenal and relations with a nuclear armed competitor, which requires some level of arms control—formal or informal. How do Moscow and Washington approach this task? What are most immediate concerns and what could be on the table in the future negotiations? How possible is trilateral arms control with China? What are the arms control mechanisms short of formal treaties? Andrey Baklitskiy, visiting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program, will present his analysis of the different options for U.S.-Russian arms control.
The event will be webcast live from this page.
Speakers:
Andrey Baklitskiy, Visiting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Jeffrey Mankoff, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Impacts and Implications of the 2020 Taiwanese Elections | January 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Brookings Institute Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington DC | Register Here
Taiwan held elections for the president and all the members of the Legislative Yuan on January 11. Although President Tsai Ing-wen had maintained a strong lead in the polls, there were questions about the reliability of some polls. Moreover, the outcome of the legislative elections was very uncertain. China, which has long made clear its dislike of the Tsai administration, had predictably intensified its pressure campaign against Tsai and Taiwan, hoping to impact these elections. In the end, Tsai Ing-wen was reelected, and the Democratic Progressive Party maintained its majority in the Legislative Yuan.
On January 16, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of policy experts for a discussion on the results of the elections and their implications for domestic governance in Taiwan, relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-Taiwan relations, and other policy implications.
Speakers
Jacques deLisle is the Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute
Alexander C. Huang is the Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and the Institute of American Studies
Thomas Wright is the Director of the Center on the United States and Europe and Senior Fellow in Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institute.
Yun Sun is a nonresident Fellow with the Africa Growth Initiative. She also serves as co-director of the East Asia Program, and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.
Richard C. Bush (moderator) is the Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute and holds the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies (CEAP).
Reconstruction in the Civil War Zones of the Middle East | January 16, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | The Middle East Institute 1763 N Street NW Washington DC | Register Here
The civil wars in the Middle East have taken a massive humanitarian toll on Syrian, Iraqi, Yemeni and Libyan societies, and have disrupted the regional political and economic order of this already tumultuous region.
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel discussion addressing ways for mitigating the effects of these violent and destructive conflicts. The panel will showcase the findings of the recently released book Fractured Stability: War Economies and Reconstruction in the MENA, edited by former diplomat Luigi Narbone, and contributed to by Professor Steven Heydemann. The panel discussion will answer questions such as, what does it mean to exit a civil war conflict economy? What is required to restore economic and political normalcy in countries in civil war? The panel will also address how the rebuilding of hard infrastructure is necessary, but that equally important for reaching and sustaining stability is the forging of new social contracts and establishment of new political and economic norms. Another area that will be explored is how changes at the regional and international levels have influenced possibilities for post-conflict economic reconstruction, and what regional and international preconditions are necessary for a successful reconstruction and transition to peace.
The Middle East Institute has established itself as a thought leader in providing a better understanding of the causes of these conflicts. It has just launched a book “Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil Wars in the Middle East“, and participated in the World Bank’s Building For Peace project. Stay tuned for announcements of future MEI sponsored events that offer important findings about both the underlying causes and possible remedies for these civil conflicts.
Speakers:
Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at The Middle East Institute and is on the faculty of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Steven Heydemann is a nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution.
Luigi Narbone is Director of the Middle East Directions Programme at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute.
Francesca Recanatini is a Senior Public Sector Specialist in Governance at the World Bank
Paul Salem (moderator) is President of the Middle East Institute
Deconstructing the Soleimani Killing: Implications for the Region and Beyond | January 16, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Arab Center Washington DC, National Press Club First Amendment Lounge 529 14th St., NW Washington DC | Register Here
Speakers
Daniel Brumberg is an Associate Professor of Government at Georgetown University and a nonresident Senior Fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC
Abbas Kadhim is the Director of Iraq Initiative and Resident Senior Fellow of Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council
Negar Mortazavi is an Iranian-American journalist and media analyst for BBC, Al Jazeera, and CGTN
Reframing the U.S.- Pakistan Strategic Relationship: A Conversation with Foreign Minister Qureshi | January 16, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM | Center for Strategic International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW Washington DC | Register Here
For the last 20 years, the relationship between Pakistan and the United States has been refracted through the prism of Afghanistan.
Pakistan and the U.S. have a shared interest in working toward peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan and the U.S. have an opportunity to reframe the bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House last July is seen as a turning point for the two countries after a difficult period.
There is a good case for a broader Pakistan-U.S. partnership: Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, located in a central geographic part of the world, has the largest percentage of young people globally, and is the native land of over one million affluent and politically engaged Pakistani Americans. There is tremendous investment opportunity for U.S. companies in Pakistan’s enormous energy, agriculture, and tourism sectors.
Please join us for a conversation with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi of Pakistan as he lays out his vision for the Pakistan-U.S. relationship.
The event will be webcast live from this page.
Speakers
John J. Hamre is President and CEO of CSIS
Daniel F. Runde is the Senior Vice President and Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development.
Seth G. Jones is the Director of the Transnational Threats Project and Senior Adviser to the International Security Program.
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Proliferation without borders
Dr. Pantelis Ikonomou, a former IAEA Safeguards inspector asks:
After 30 years of service as a senior officer in the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s watchdog for nuclear weapons non-proliferation and disarmament, an organisation that primarily you, US and Russia, created and continue to support, I dare to address to both of you a rhetorical question:
“How could an international nuclear safeguards inspector comprehend and explain to the stunned public your recent nuclear behavior, in particular your withdrawal from the bilateral Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty that you achieved in 1987 on prohibiting the development and deployment of a wide range of nuclear weapons?”
In March 2018 President Putin stated that nuclear weapons are essential for his county to maintain its position as a great world power. In order to convince the international community, he presented the terrifying capabilities of new Russian nuclear weapons that could target any place on the planet without been detected, thus, rendering nuclear deterrence a useless myth.
Six months later, in October 2018, President Trump replied that the US would unilaterally withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, claiming that Russia does not comply with its obligations.
Moscow rejected the accusations, blaming Washington for refraining from the negotiations on the extension beyond 2021 of the New START treaty, which controls strategic nuclear weapons.
In a continuous blame game the Russian president warned that any deployment of intermediate range missile by the US in Europe will force Russia to respond equally. Moreover, he made it terrifyingly clear that the increase nuclear threat could «result to the global destruction of human civilization and perhaps even of our planet».
Europe reacted immediately urging INF’s survival. The treaty’s elimination will turn Europe into a launcher and target of the ‘’new and modern’’ nuclear weapons of both the US and Russia, respectively. Furthermore, the European strategic objective of an autonomous defense policy will become difficult to achieve.
China, knowing that it will become the target of new US intermediate-rang nuclear missiles deployed in Japan and South Korea, immediately and firmly excluded its possible involvement in a new multilateral INF treaty, which eventually could embrace China’s nuclear adversary, India.
Several nervous countries, such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea, maintain active programs to develop intermediate ballistic missiles suitable for carrying nuclear weapons.
If the two super powers, the US and Russia, assisted by the rest of the NPT nuclear weapons states (China, UK and France) won’t proceed to the creation of a new international INF treaty, they will owe the world answers to vital geopolitical questions:
- Do the US and Russia not realize that their nuclear policy contradicts their basic NPT undertaking (Article VI) «…to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament…»?
- Do they not recognize the immediate risk of nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East and north-east Asia?
- Is North Korea not enough?
- Why do they risk their own loss of global geostrategic primacy?
- Is it possible that they ignore the increasing global nuclear threat?
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Peace Picks May 27-June 2
- The Role of Parliament in Today’s Britain|Tuesday, May 28th|9:45am-11:15am|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
On May 28, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow for a discussion of Parliament’s role in politics and policy at a pivotal time for one of the United States’ closest allies. The past year has seen a series of extraordinary developments in British politics, with the House of Commons at the center of it all. Following repeated parliamentary defeats for the government’s Brexit agreement with the European Union, the country’s scheduled departure from the EU has been delayed until October 31 and elections for the European Parliament will be held on May 23.
Brookings President John R. Allen will introduce Speaker Bercow. Following the speaker’s remarks, Thomas Wright, director of Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe, will moderate a conversation with Bercow and Amanda Sloat, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
This event is part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative, which aims to build up and expand resilient networks and trans-Atlantic activities to analyze and work on issues concerning trans-Atlantic relations and social cohesion in Europe and the United States.
2. The Arms Control Landscape|Wednesday, May 29th|8:45am-11:00am|Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr., for a discussion on Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons. Lt. Gen. Ashley will provide keynote remarks and engage in a discussion with Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs. This will be followed by a panel of senior government officials who will discuss the global landscape for arms control.
Speakers:
Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley, Jr., Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Dr. James H. Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense
Tim Morrison, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Biodefense, National Security Council (NSC)
Thomas DiNanno, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, Emerging Threats, And Outreach, Bureau Of Arms Control, Verification And Compliance, U.S. Department of State
3. A Conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dunford|Wednesday, May 29th| 10:30am-11:30am |Brookings Institution|Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC| Register Here
During his distinguished tenure as 19th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—the nation’s highest-ranking military officer—General Joseph Dunford has been a key force at the center of America’s defense policy. He has helped redirect U.S. strategic attention to the challenges posed by great power competition, while also remaining vigilant against threats from the Korean Peninsula to the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East, and addressing rapidly evolving military technologies as well as other challenges.
On May 29, Brookings will host General Dunford for a discussion with on the national security landscape facing America, the state of the nation’s armed forces, and key defense choices for the future, moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon.
Questions from the audience will follow their conversation.
4. EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project|Wednesday, May 29th |12:00pm-2:00pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Wednesday, May 29, 2019, from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. for a conversation on “EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project.”
In the wake of the 2019 EU elections, the Future Europe Initiative will host a number of experts to discuss their insights on the results. They will provide analysis on the election results, the outcome on individual nations and regions within the EU, and the impact on Europe and the European project as a whole.
Mr. Antoine Ripoll, the Representative of the EU Parliament in Washington, DC, will provide opening remarks with Dr. Frances G. Burwell, Distinguished Fellow with the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council, moderating the conversation.
Additional speakers will include Dr. Emiliano Alessandri of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Dr. Célia Belin of The Brookings Institution, Ms. Katerina Sokou of Kathimerini and SKAI TV, and Mr. Bart Oosterveld of the Atlantic Council.
To share the perspective on the ground, Mr. Jeremy Cliffe of the Economist and Ms. Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform will join us via webcast from Brussels and Berlin respectively.
5. A New Opening for Peace in Ukraine?|Wednesday, May 29th|2:00pm-4:00pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036| Register Here
After five years of war, the conflict in Ukraine is effectively stalemated. Join Carnegie for a timely conversation on whether the arrival of a new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, can help break the deadlock. How should the Trump administration and its European allies respond to this new political reality and continued provocative Russian actions in eastern Ukraine?
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Amb. Kurt Volker will deliver a keynote address, followed by a panel discussion with leading experts and former government officials.
Travel for participants in this event was made possible with the support of the Embassies of Lithuania and Poland.
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and Professor of international affairs at Georgetown University
Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russia Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, Poland.
Oxana Shevel, Associate Professor in Political Science, Tufts University
Amb. Petras Vaitienkūnasis, former Foreign Minister of Lithuania and Ambassador to Ukraine (2010 to 2014), Adviser to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council
Moderator:
Andrew S. Weiss, James Family chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
6. Russia’s Resurgence in the Middle East: How does US Policy Meet the Challenge?|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm|Atlantic Council||1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Russia is once again a major player in the Middle East. Moscow has notably backed the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while it has a growing footprint in Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf. Russia’s return to the region has posed significant challenges for transatlantic policymaking in this era of renewed great-power competition. The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security will bring together a panel of experts to discuss Russia’s growing role in the region and its economic, political, and security implications. This event is intended to qualify as a widely-attended gathering under the Executive Branch and Congressional gift rules.
Introduced by:
William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Keynote address by:
Kathryn Wheelbarger, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, US Department of Defense
Panelists:
Mark N. Katz, Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Becca Wasser, Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
7. How to Advance Inclusive Peace Processes: Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
Efforts to develop more inclusive peace processes are making progress. Yet, 20 years after the passage of U.N. Security Resolution 1325 on women, peace, and security, very few women are currently part of formal peace processes. This gap is exemplified by the recent struggles of Afghan women to be included in peace talks and U.N. reports that showed between 1990 and 2017, women constituted only 2 percent of mediators, 8 percent of negotiators, and 5 percent of witnesses and signatories in major peace processes. A new initiative from Our Secure Future, “Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security,” seeks to remedy this by calling on men in gatekeeping positions throughout the defense, diplomacy, development, civil society, faith-based, and business sectors to commit to ensuring women are an equal part of peace processes and decision making.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for an event exploring how men in leadership positions are organizing as partners to identify, encourage, and mobilize collective voices in the support of women’s engagement in the pursuit of peace. By bringing global citizens more fully into this campaign, these stakeholders can step away from the sidelines of the women, peace, and security movement and more fully stand alongside—and empower—the women leading the effort. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #MobilizingMen4WPS.
Reception to follow.
Speakers
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini, Founder and Executive Director, ICAN
Honorable Ed Royce, Former U.S. Representative from California
Ambassador Donald Steinberg, Fellow, Our Secure Future
Ambassador Steven McGann, Founder, The Stevenson Group
Ambassador Melanne Verveer, Executive Director, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security
Ambassador Rick Barton, Co-director, Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative, Princeton University
Rosarie Tucci, moderator, Director, Inclusive Peace Processes, U.S. Institute of Peace
Sahana Dharmapuri, Director, Our Secure Future
Dean Peacock, Senior Advisor for Global Policy, Promundo
8. Line on Fire: India-Pakistan Violence and Escalation Dynamics|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Over the last decade, firing by Indian and Pakistani troops across the Line of Control in Kashmir increased dramatically, but did not escalate to general conflict. Meanwhile, the February 2019 terrorist attack in Pulwama sparked a sharp, albeit short, military confrontation between India and Pakistan that saw the first aerial combat between the two since 1971. What explains the patterns of violence along the Line of Control and what are the chances that conflict could escalate and involve nuclear weapons?
Join Carnegie for a conversation with Happymon Jacob on this question and more. In his new book Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics, Jacob analyzes new empirical data to examine the causes of India-Pakistan violence along the Kashmir border and the relationship with potential crisis escalation.
Panel:
Happymon Jacob, Associate professor of Disarmament Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Tamanna Salikuddin, Senior Expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace
George Perkovich, Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Technology and International Affairs Program and Nuclear Policy Program.
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The last error
Pantelis Ikonomou, a former IAEA nuclear inspector, thinks out loud:
- Though nuclear proliferation is a paramount global threat, super powers fail to demonstrate sufficient competence in responding.
- World expectations based on the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that nuclear weapons states will preserve global peace in accordance with their responsibilities are plainly becoming wishful thinking.
- The authority and competence of the world’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has been downgraded by its founders and historical proponents, the nuclear weapons states.
- Denuclearization of North Korea is going nowhere. The pendulum-like rhetoric on both sides, Washington and Pyongyang, combined with the risk of miscalculation or a military error, enlarges the dangerous vicious cycle.
- Washington might seriously consider the mitigation of Pyongyang’s fears for its security, as Beijing suggests, rather than playing the military threat card. This was after all the prevailing approach in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
- US withdrawal from JCPOA (2018) and Iran’s recent announcement of partial withdrawal from it lead to new risky situations. Tomorrow, no one should be surprised.
- At the same time, US National Security Strategy (2017) and the Pentagon’s Nuclear Posture Review (2018) both stated that American nuclear capability will be strengthened and its nuclear arsenal modernized. Reason given: deterrence of Russia.
- On a precisely equivalent level are President Putin’s repeated statements (2018-2019): Russia needs to maintain its super power status through advanced nuclear capabilities.
- The rest of the “legal” nuclear club – China, the UK, and France – follow suit. Why not? – they might ask.
- In parallel, the de facto non-NPT nuclear weapons states, India, Pakistan, most probably Israel and now North Korea, keep developing their nuclear arsenals and ballistic capabilities.
- Moreover, more nuclear candidates, are getting ready for their geopolitical nuclear race.
- Unfortunately, nuclear issues are complex, making a sound solution of nuclear crises difficult even for strong, authoritarian, and ambitious world leaders.
- Nuclear armaments are not a financial or political game. They are the leading global threat to human civilization.
- It is time to getting serious. The speed of developments makes derailing of constraints on nuclear weapons control likely. That would be the last human error.
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