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Peace Picks | June 14-20, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. Carnegie Connects: What Will the New Israeli Change Coalition Actually Change? | June 14, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

If the inauguration of a new Israeli government—the first in over a decade without Benjamin Netanyahu—takes place this Sunday, it raises a series of questions that bear consequentially on the politics of Israel, the conflict with Palestinians, relations with key Arab states, and the Iran nuclear accord. What will the new coalition government, comprised of eight parties across the political spectrum but led by a new, right-wing prime minister, mean for the future of Israel? How will this new government address heightened tension with Palestinians following the most recent Israeli-Palestinian confrontation in Jerusalem and Gaza? And what does the new coalition portend for relations with the Biden administration, U.S. Congress, and the American Jewish community? 

Speakers:

Anshel Pfeffer

Senior writer for Haaretz, Israel correspondent for the Economist, author of Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu

Natan Sachs

Director, Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy

Tal Schneider

Political Correspondent, the Times of Israel

Aaron David Miller

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

2. Iran’s 2021 Presidential Elections: The Final End of the Reform Movement? | June 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Register Here

Iran holds presidential elections on 18 June. The entire process is carefully organized. From seven carefully vetted men who were allowed in the race to presidential debates that are entirely devoid of any serious policy discussion, this is an election that has by all accounts failed to excite the Iranian voters. Key policy challenges, including the role of Iran’s foreign policy in resulting in sanctions and dire economic conditions, are largely left unaddressed.

To many observers, this election is also the final nail in the coffin of the reform movement and the idea that gradual political change in the Islamic Republic is possible. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is delighted to host three prominent Iranian observers to discuss this election process and its implications.

Speakers:

Ali Afshari

Iranian Political Analyst and Activist

Nazenin Ansari

Managing Editor, Kayhan London

Negar Mortazavi

Journalist and political analyst

Alex Vatanka

Director, Iran Program, MEI

3. Covid-19 in the Middle East: Regional Impact and Future Recovery | June 15, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to hold the second event in a four-part series in cooperation with Arab Barometer, on the occasion of the publication of Arab Barometer’s findings from the sixth wave of its surveys. This most recent poll was conducted in the wake of the outbreak of Covid-19, and assessed regional perspectives on the impact of the pandemic on public health, domestic conditions, vulnerable populations, and the way the region sees the outside world.

The second panel will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Salma Al-Shami, senior research specialist with the Arab Barometer, to discuss the findings as they relate to the impact of Covid-19 and the prospects for long term recovery. How has Covid-19 impacted the region and what vulnerabilities remain? What are the respondent’s perceptions of how their governments addressed the crisis? What does localized and regional recovery look like in conjunction with other ongoing crises?

Speakers:

Yasmina Abuzzuhour

Visiting fellow, Brookings-Doha

Salma Al-Shami

Senior research specialist, Arab Barometer

Shala Al-Kli

Non-resident scholar, MEI; Deputy regional director, Mercy Corps

Karen Young (moderator)

Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI

4.  The Art of War in an Age of Peace | June 15, 2021 | 11:15 AM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here

As President Joe Biden and his team settle into their new jobs, how should they view the national security challenges facing the United States? And what should U.S. national security policy seek to achieve? Four months into the new administration, it is no longer enough to be the antidote to former President Donald Trump’s unilateralism; a more forward-looking and visionary foreign policy framework is needed. In his new book, “The Art of War in an Age of Peace: U.S. Grand Strategy and Resolute Restraint,” Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon argues that the United States should be resolute in its commitment to defend its core territories, populations, polities, and the economies of its allies, as well as the free and open skies and oceans on which the global economy depends. However, America also needs to show restraint, avoiding costly mistakes that could lead to escalation with great power rivals — such as expanding NATO to include new members — while relying instead on asymmetric defense and deterrence, including economic and military tools to preserve the international order.

Speakers:

Michele Flournoy

Chair, Board of Directors, Center for a New American Security; Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors; Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

Michael E. O’Hanlon

Director of Research, Foreign Policy; Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Africa Security Initiative; Senior fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology

Helene Cooper (moderator)

Pentagon Correspondent, The New York Times

5. Viennese Waltz: How Can the U.S. Balance its Priorities with Gulf Arab Concerns as it Engages Iran? | June 16 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here

U.S.-Iranian relations seem poised on a knife’s edge, primarily in the indirect negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement.

Where do the talks stand? What are the prospects of an agreement, and what sticking points and pitfalls remain between the parties? If the agreement is revived, how much can be accomplished in 2022, particularly considering the rapidly expiring sunset provisions and Iran’s progress on centrifuges and other critical technology? If the agreement is restored on a compliance-for-compliance basis, is there any serious prospect of additional understandings, particularly that address non-nuclear concerns such as Iran’s missile development program and regional network of violent nonstate actors? Will U.S. regional partners in the Gulf influence the negotiations? Could progress between Washington and Tehran help to promote more robust dialogue between Iran and Gulf Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?

Speakers:

Thomas L. Friedman

Columnist, New York Times

Suzanne Maloney

Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution

Ambassador Frank G. Wisner

Chair of the Board, AGSIW

Hussein Ibish (moderator)

Senior Resident Scholar

6. Secularism & Islam in France | June 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here

Laïcité or secularism is a key part of the French political fabric but also causing friction and divisions – especially with Muslim communities. A new “Islamist separatism” bill, which would further expand on the separation of church and state, is currently being passed through the French parliament. It would prohibit any civil servant or contractor for the public sector from wearing religious symbols. Although the bill does not explicitly mention Islam as such, many fear that it could unfairly target and further alienate Muslims in France.

Is secularism in its current form still working in France? What can be done to guarantee the separation of church and state, but also protect religious freedoms and religious minorities? How do legitimate security concerns, and the debate about political Islam and freedom of speech heighten tensions?

Speakers:

Amel Boubekeur

Sociologist, EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales)

Steven Philip Kramer

Global Fellow ; Professor of National Security Studies, Eisenhower School, National Defense University

Hakim El Karoui

Senior Fellow, Institut Montaigne; Senior Partner & Paris Office Head, Brunswick

William Drozdiak (moderator)

Global Fellow; Author “The Last President of Europe: Emmanuel Macron’s Race to Revive France and Save the World.”

7. Human Rights Violations in Black Sea Occupied Territories | June 16, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East institute | Register Here

Human rights violations in illegally-annexed Crimea and the occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have become a constant element of Russian aggression in the Black Sea region. In both cases, unlawful killings and detentions, enforced disappearances, abductions, and torture are some of the most flagrant human rights violations that Russian and de facto authorities are committing. Additionally, Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories have also developed targeted policies against the local population, such as borderization in Georgia and militarization and passportization in Ukraine. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, rights in the occupied territories have worsened, and authorities have further restricted freedom of movement, access to education and healthcare, freedom of religion, and workers’ ability to secure a livelihood.

What are the similarities between the human rights violations of Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories across the Black Sea region? How has the pandemic impacted the human rights situation in the occupied territories of Georgia and Ukraine? What are the next steps in improving the human rights situation in these territories and deterring Russian aggression?

Speakers:

Maria Tomak

Coordinator, Media Initiative for Human Rights, Ukraine

Ann Tsurtsumia-Zurabashvili

Project manager, East-West Management Institute (EWMI), Advancing CSO Capacities and Engaging Society for Sustainability (ACCESS), Georgia

Iulia Joja (moderator)

Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI

8. Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan | June 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

On April 14th, President Biden announced a complete U.S. troop withdrawal by September 11, 2021, with a peace conference between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban initially set for April 24th in Istanbul, Turkey. However, the peace conference has been postponed indefinitely due to the Taliban reneging. As of April 2021, civilian casualties in Afghanistan have increased by 29 percent as compared to April 2020, with significant increases in woman and child casualties.

As the U.S. withdrawal develops, the economic, political, and human rights future of Afghanistan remains uncertain. These issues in Afghanistan also play into United States interests in the surrounding region, including in human rights, development, and political and economic stability. One school of thought argues that ending U.S. military presence accelerates a real dialogue amongst the parties in Afghanistan. Another posits that a U.S. withdrawal will result in the collapse of development, human rights, and economic progress, specifically gains in social, political and women’s rights issues made in the last 20 years. A current and future challenge will be in determining what role the United States can and should play in Afghanistan following a military withdrawal and what pathways remain for a resolution of the regional conflict.

Speakers:

Earl Anthony Wayne

Senior Advisor, Project on Prosperity and Development

Annie Pforzheimer

Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development

Richard Olson

Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development

Daniel F. Runde

Senior Vice President; William A. Schreyer Chair and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development

9. Digital Occupation: The Implications of Media Moderation in Palestine | June 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here

As the international community has further opened its eyes to the dangerous patterns of censorship and discrimination against Palestinians and Palestinian narratives online, particularly on social media platforms, many have called for legislative reform, policy changes at the company level, and more attention to the needs and concerns of Palestinians on the part of stakeholders in the technology industry. While some limited partnerships and reforms have made progress on this issue, there is still an enormous gulf in the area of policy responses to the problem of online discrimination against Palestinians.

What are some of the implications of this phenomenon?  How might it impact movements for Palestinian rights, and broader international attention to the Israel-Palestine question? What are some potential policy steps – both for social media and technology companies, governments and states, and other civil society groups and stakeholders – that might start to address this challenge in a more systematic way? This panel will explore the policy responses to this complex issue and hope to draw attention to some concrete policy reforms for the future.

Speakers:

Radhika Sainath

Senior staff attorney, Palestine Legal

Mona Shtaya

Local advocacy manager, 7amleh

Ashraf Zeitoon

Advisor and investor; former director of public policy, Middle East, Turkey & Africa, Netflix; former head of policy, Middle East and North Africa, Facebook

Eliza Campell (moderator)

Associate director, Impact and Innovation, MEI

10. President Jimmy Carter and the Middle East: Reexamining his legacy forty years later | June 17, 11:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institute | Register Here

Beginning in 1977, Former president Jimmy Carter’s administration was one of the most consequential for American foreign policy in the Middle East. His determination to secure an Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty transformed the Arab-Israeli confrontation in many ways. During his presidency, the shah of Iran was replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini and the ensuing hostage crisis doomed Carter’s re-election. The Iran-Iraq war also began on his watch. In Afghanistan, Carter devised the strategy and alliances that defeated the Soviet Union and won the Cold War. However, Carter has been an outcast in American politics for four decades.

On June 17, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host award winning author Kai Bird for a discussion of the Carter administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East and Bird’s new book, “The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter,” which considers the triumphs and failures of the Carter presidency. Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, whose career in the CIA began during the Carter administration, will join Bird for a discussion of the legacy of the Carter administration forty years later.

Speakers:

Bruce Riedel

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; Director, The Intelligence Project

Kai Bird

Contributing Editor, The Nation; Executive Director and Distinguished lecturer, Leon Levy Center for Biography, City University of New York