Tag: Palestine
America is back, but where and how is not yet clear
President Biden today in two appearances at the State Department–one for the staff and one to address foreign policy–was anxious to say that America is back to diplomacy, to the defense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and to cooperating with allies. His foreign policy will, he said, benefit Americans, whose security and welfare will be primary goals.
He is clear enough about Russia and China. He’ll be much tougher on the former than Trump, calling out its repression and even murder of dissidents and countering cyberhacking and election interference, while seeking areas of common interest like the already extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. On China, the policy will be similar to Trump’s in aiming to compete as well as cooperate, but with more attention to human rights and less inclination to trade wars, though the tariffs don’t appear to be coming down yet.
In the Middle East, Biden was clear about one thing: he wants a negotiated end to the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and will cut off American support to the Saudis and Emiratis. So much materiel has already been transferred that this make take some time to have a logistical impact, but the psychological impact will be immediate. The Hadi government the Saudis and Emiratis have backed is going to have to cut a deal or step aside so someone else can. It is unclear what the Houthis will be willing to yield, as they currently have the upper hand in much of the fighting, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Biden has also made it clear he is prepared to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) if Tehran does likewise. But the sequencing of the respective returns, and precisely what they amount to in terms of sanctions relief and nuclear reversal, are still unclear. So is any future nuclear agenda: the Iranians have so far refused widening, deepening, or prolonging the JCPOA.
On the rest of the Middle East, Biden has left things unclear. He has said little or nothing about:
- Syria, where the US still has forces pursuing ISIS, protecting oil wells, and cooperating with Kurdish-led insurgents regarded as terrorists by NATO ally Turkey,
- Palestine, though he has renewed diplomatic contacts with the Palestinian Authority and will presumably return to the two-state goal Trump tried to obliterate,
- Iraq, where US forces were drawn down to 2500 by his predecessor,
- Libya, where the UN has been making some apparent progress on ending the civil war.
- Egypt, where President Sisi has imposed a renewed autocracy at least as ferocious as either of his two immediate predecessors.
Each of these countries is at least as important to the United States as Yemen, but it is unclear what “America is back” means to them. Americans are tired of these longstanding messes, whose resolution is hard to tie directly to American security and welfare, even if we know that withdrawal from them could be costly.
America is really good at getting in, especially if can be done with warplanes and troops. It is much harder to get out, which requires diplomacy. But at least we now have a president who believes in diplomacy and is prepared to back America’s diplomats.
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Stevenson’s army, January 27
– Relations with Palestinians restored.
– New SecState Blinken plans reviews.-SecDef Austin reviews Afghan withdrawals.
– US looks for new Saudi bases.
-Axios reports on a tech working group report on countering China’s technology.
– Atlantic sees problems ahead for Space Force.
– AU Prof has good ideas for how the cyber czar should operate.
– FP lists its recent articles by new Biden officials, potential guide to how they’ll act in office.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | November 16 – November 20, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Corruption in Kyrgyzstan: The Path Forward | November 16, 2020 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
It has been over a month since political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan resulted in the collapse of the government of now-former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov and the rise of Sadyr Japarov, a former convict, to the position of acting president. With new presidential elections now planned for January, the country’s political landscape is changing fast, with Japarov implausibly promising an anti-corruption campaign—a key concern of those who protested on the streets in October.
This dramatic shift is driven by growing anger over corruption and poor governance—laid particularly bare by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite the public’s demands for stronger government accountability, corrupt organized crime is still flourishing and poised to have increased influence in a plausible Japarov presidency.
Please join us for a discussion on Kyrgyzstan’s legacies of corruption, prospects for better governance, and popular responses to the recent social and political upheaval the country has witnessed, all based on a new, groundbreaking report released by RFE/RL, Kloop, and OCCRP.
Speakers:
Shirin Aitmatova: former member of Kyrgyz Parliament and a leader of Umut 2020 – a people’s movement that focuses on anti-corruption investigations.
Asel Doolotkeldieva: associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek. Her research examines social mobilization, religiosity and gender, democratization and institution-building, rent-seeking from natural resources, and migration in Kyrgyzstan. She holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.
Bruce Pannier: senior Central Asian affairs correspondent, who writes the Qishloq Ovozi blog and appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.
Carl Schreck: RFE/RL’s enterprise editor. He has covered politics, crime, business, and sports in Russia and the former Soviet Union for nearly 20 years, including nearly a decade while based in Moscow.
Paul Stronski: senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, where his research focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
2. Trans-Atlantic Cooperation and the International Order After the US Election | November 16, 2020 | 9:45 – 11:45 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the past four years, the United States has often abdicated its traditional leadership role, leaving allies across the Atlantic to fend for themselves. Now, as Americans and Europeans alike process the results of the U.S. election, significant practical and political questions about the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship and the global order abound. With Joe Biden in the White House, will European leaders be willing to once again rely on the U.S. as an ally? While a Biden administration will certainly be more friendly to trans-Atlantic relations and multilateralism, will this shift be lasting or merely a lapse amid an increasingly isolationist era of American foreign policy? With Republicans likely to retain control of the Senate, what impact would a divided government have on the new administration’s foreign policy?
On Monday, November 16, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a conference to consider these questions and other implications of the next U.S. administration for the future of the international order and trans-Atlantic cooperation. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
Schedule and Speakers:
Welcoming Remarks: 9:45 AM – 10:00 AM
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director – Foreign Policy
Henry Alt-Haaker: Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships and Robert Bosch Academy – Robert Bosch Stiftung
Panel Discussion: 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM
James Goldgeier: Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Stormy-Annika Mildner: Head of Department, External Economic Policy – Federation of German Industries
Rachel Rizzo: Director of Programs – Truman National Security Project; Adjunct Fellow, Transatlantic Program – Center for a New American Security
Marietje Schaake: International Policy Director – Cyber Policy Center at Stanford University
Constanze Stelzenmüller, moderator: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Keynote: 11:00 AM – 11:45 AM
Nathalie Tocci: Director – Istituto Affari Internazionali; Honorary Professor – University of Tübingen
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and Europe; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Assessing Perceptions of Affected Communities in Northern Iraq on Peace, Justice and Governance | November 16, 2020 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative on Monday, November 16 from 11:30 am – 12:30 pm ET presenting a timely survey which offers a snapshot of the perceptions and attitudes in northern Iraq about peace and justice within communities affected by the conflict with the Islamic State (IS). The discussion will feature Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi, research manager, Iraq country expert and policy advisor at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, Phuong Pham, director of evaluation and implementation science at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Patrick Vinck, research director at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, and moderated by Kirsten Fontenrose, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
The report (available in Arabic) by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative’s Peace and Human Rights Data Program, details how northern Iraqi communities targeted by the Islamic State (IS) are denied justice. Based on 5,213 interviews conducted in 2019 among a representative sample of internally displaced persons in northern Iraq and residents of the city of Mosul and surrounding areas, the research documents a severe lack of trust in official institutions, particularly in the Government of Iraq itself, stemming in large part from the belief that these institutions do not act in the best interest of the population.
Speakers:
Abulrazzaq Al-Saiedi: Research Manager, Iraq Country Expert, and Policy Advisor, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Phuong Pham: Director of Evaluation and Implementation Science, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Patrick Vinck: Research Director, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Kirsten Fontenrose, moderator: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
4. Moldova’s Presidential Elections | November 16, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On November 15, incumbent Moldovan President Igor Dodon will face pro-European opposition candidate Maia Sandu in a national run-off election. Sandu has promised to fight corruption, poverty, and reform the criminal justice system. Dodon is considered the most pro-Russian candidate, advocating to make Russian compulsory in schools and to strengthen Moldova’s strategic partnership with Russia. Amb. William Hill, former Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nicu Popescu, and DGAP Research Fellow Cristina Gherasimov will consider the results of the runoff election, its implications, and how the next president in Chisinau will manage Moldova-Russian relations.
Speakers:
William H. Hill: Global Fellow; Former Professor of National Security Strategy, National War College, Washington D.C.
Nicu Popescu: Director, Wider Europe Programme, European Council on Foreign Relations
Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP
Matthew Rojansky, moderator: Director, Kennan Institute
5. US and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The looming arrival of the Joe Biden administration in January 2021 provides the leadership in Tehran with an opportunity to seek a qualitatively different relationship with the United States. President-elect Biden has already expressed a desire to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal, which the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. While Tehran awaits to see what, if any, conditions the Biden team has for the resumption of the diplomatic track and removal of US-led sanctions, a policy fight is already under way inside the Iranian state about the future of US-Iran relations.
The American question in Tehran is not just a foreign policy file but ultimately linked to the question of whether the Islamic Republic opts to continue a revolutionary and militant foreign policy or settles for a path of de-escalation with Washington and other rivals. How much of this policy competition in Tehran will shape Washington’s next steps vis-à-vis Iran?
To discuss these matters and other key challenges in the path of US-Iran relations in the coming Biden administration, we are delighted to host a panel of experts.
Speakers:
Jon Alterman: Senior vice president, Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Hannah Kaviani:Staffer, RFE/RL’s Persian language service, Radio Farda
Behnam Ben Taleblu: Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Alex Vatanka (moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
6. The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration | November 17, 2020; November 19, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution.
Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
To shed light on these and other issues, the Middle East Institute (MEI) invites you to join a two-part webinar series on the Future of Palestinian Politics Under a Biden Administration, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy
Speakers:
Part 1 – Reviving Palestinian Political Life
Tareq Baconi: Senior analyst, International Crisis Group
Sam Bahour: Ramallah-based business consultant
Mustafa Barghouti:General secretary, Palestinian National Initiative
Noura Erakat: Human rights attorney; assistant professor, Rutgers University
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Part 2 – Toward a Palestinian National Strategy
Dana ElKurd: Researcher, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
Mariam Barghouti: Political commentator and writer
Yousef Munayyer: Non-resident fellow, MEI
Nasser AlKidwa: Former Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations and Palestinian Foreign Minister
Khaled Elgindy, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
7. Building a Climate Resilient and Just Future for All: Delivering Action and Ambition | November 17, 2020 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought resilience to the fore. It has laid bare the vulnerability of our societies and economies and exposed the lack of risk planning in countries. During this event, speakers will focus on the need to carry out ambitious actions on building resilience and identify what can be done to set up a decade of action.
This high level event will bring together the outcomes of the Regional Resilience Dialogues and Race to Zero resilience-focused dialogues and highlight how to advance the action of non-state actors and initiatives to deliver outcomes at COP26 and beyond. The High Level Champions, Gonzalo Muñoz and Nigel Topping, will also use this event to share their developing plans for a Race for Resilience campaign as a sister to the Race to Zero campaign to deliver a decade of action.
This dialogue will build upon previous Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action roundtables held at COP23, COP24 and COP25 events, the Global Commission on Adaptation, and from the UN Climate Action Summit and the Call to Action on Adaptation and Resilience.
Speakers:
Opening Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
Panel Discussions
Panel 1: The Challenge: Why action on Resilience is a must?
Johan Rockstrom: Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science, University of Potsdam; Chair of the Global Resilience Partnership Advisory Council
Saleemul Huq: Director, International Centre for Climate Change & Development (ICCCAD); Chair of Resilience track for UN Food Systems Summit 2021
Emma Howard-Boyd: UK Commissioner, Global Commission on Adaptation and Chair of the Environment Agency
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 2: Opportunities for Ambitious Action
Kathy Baughman McLeod: Senior Vice President and Director, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center; Atlantic Council, representing the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance (EHRA)
Zakia Naznin: Programme Manager, Concern Worldwide, representing the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance
Karen Sack: CEO, Ocean Unite, representing Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Panel 3: Delivering Ambition and a Decade of Action
Julio Cordano: Head, Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Chile and COP 25 Chilean Presidency Representative
Patrick Verkooijen: Chief Executive Officer, Global Center on Adaptation
Anne-Marie Trevelyan: UK International Champion on Adaptation and Resilience, COP26
Wanjira Mathai, moderator: Vice President and Regional Director for Africa, World Resources Institute
Closing Remarks
Nigel Topping: High Level Climate Action Champion, UK, COP26
Gonzalo Muñoz: High Level Climate Action Champion, Chile, COP26
8. Lebanon: Out with the Old, In with the What? | November 17, 2020 | 16:00 – 17:00 EET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While Lebanon’s ruling elite continues to delay the formation of a new cabinet under Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, French President Emmanuel Macron is growing impatient as he watches his initiative and timeline for reforms crumble. The Trump Administration, meanwhile, is still ramping up sanctions on Hezbollah’s allies in government. Where does the government formation stand today? What remains of the French initiative? How might U.S. foreign policy towards Lebanon shift under President-Elect Joe Biden?
Speakers:
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence Monde Arabe at Paris Sciences et Lettres and is a professor at the École Normale Supérieure, Paris
Dorothée Schmid: senior research fellow and heads the Turkey and Middle East Program at the French Institute of International Relations.
Randa Slim: senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute.
Maha Yahya: Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, where her research focuses on citizenship, pluralism, and social justice in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings.
9. What Does the World Expect of President-elect Joe Biden? | November 17, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The next U.S. Administration faces a complicated, volatile world. Please join Wilson Center experts on Russia, China, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Latin America as they interview colleagues and experts on the ground in their regions to discuss what a Biden Administration means in terms of our relationships around the globe.
Our experts will host a spirited conversation on the foreign policy expectations and challenges confronting the next President of the United States.
Speakers:
Jane Harman: Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson: Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly: Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Duncan Wood: Director, Mexico Institute
John Milewski, moderator: Director of Digital Programming; Moderator, Wilson Center NOW
10. Exceptions to the Rules: Civilian Harm and Accountability in the Shadow Wars | November 19, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
Nearly two decades after 9/11, the CIA and Special Operations Forces have become increasingly involved in U.S. counterterrorism operations around the world –often operating in the shadows and under a growing set of broad exceptions to the rules that govern the lawful use of lethal force, civilian harm mitigation, transparency, and accountability. Join the Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflict for a discussion of these programs and the launch of a new report examining the tradeoffs involved with normalizing these exceptions, and offering concrete recommendations for increasing public awareness and strengthening oversight and accountability.
Speakers:
Daniel Mahanty: Director, US Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
Rita Siemion: Director, National Security Advocacy, Human Rights First
Rachel Stohl, Vice President, Stimson Center
Stephen Tankel: Associate Professor, American University; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security
11. Elections in the Black Sea Region | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Elections are taking place across the Black Sea, including in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The three countries have Association Agreements with the EU and have benefitted from significant Western support over the last years. All three countries also share the problems of separatist and frozen conflicts on their territories that affect their security and stability. Elections outcomes in all three countries will have important implications for the foreign policy orientation of the countries and their role in the Black Sea region. Elections in the region coincide with the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic crisis with potentially devastating effects for the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine to the United States on the election process, outcomes, and implications for the Black Sea region.
How did the election process and the results fair out for Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine? What are the main challenges around the elections in the context of the pandemic and economic crisis? How will the election results impact their foreign policies in the years to come?
Speakers:
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
Eugen Caras: Moldovan Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja, moderator: Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative
12. RESOLVE Network 2020 Global Forum: Violent Extremism in 2020 and Beyond | November 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | USIP | Register Here
The year 2020 has ushered in rapid and significant shifts in existing threats to global security. From the COVID-19 pandemic to climate change and longstanding violent conflict, the pressures facing our current global system are increasingly complex and all-encompassing. Among these, violent extremism remains a significant challenge—shifting as actors adapt and take advantage of ongoing and emerging global shocks and sources of instability.
How has the violent extremism landscape changed in the five years since the “fall” of ISIS? How has rising global instability, populism, and disinformation altered violent extremist operations and ideologies, and vice versa? What challenges do we face in addressing violent extremism in the new threat landscape? Can we apply any lessons from past experiences to address emerging threats and dynamics in 2020 and beyond?
Please join the RESOLVE Network and USIP for a discussion about these challenges and more during part one of RESOLVE’s fifth annual Global Forum series. Convened virtually, the forum will bring together leading experts and researchers for thought-provoking conversations on evolving trends and dynamics in the violent extremist landscape.
Speakers:
Dr. Alastair Reed, opening remarks: Senior Expert and Executive Director of the RESOLVE Network
Dr. Mary Beth Altier: Clinical Associate Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University
Dr. Amarnath Amarasingam: Assistant Professor, School of Religion, Queen’s University, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Colin P. Clarke: Senior Research Fellow, The Soufan Center, member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
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Serbia should not be at stake in US elections
Saša Janković, expert on human rights and security governance, former Serbian National Ombudsman, and runner up at the Serbian presidential election of 2017, writes in Belgrade daily Danas:
From circles close to the Democrats in the United States, two short program documents of their candidate for US President Joseph Biden were recently published – one on the vision of American-Albanian relations, essentially addressed to Albanians from Kosovo and Albania, and the other on the future of American-BiH relations. In both documents, Biden emphasizes on the one hand his help and vision for Kosovo, Albania and BiH and, on the other hand, his efforts to suppress the harmful influence of Serbia and certain Serbian politicians. After the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, joined Donald Trump’s pre-election campaign, Biden hereby took the position “Serbia has chosen its side, I am also choosing it.”
Improving relations between Serbia and the United States is the utmost Serbian national interest. However, by the so-called economic agreement with Pristina under Trump’s patronage, in the middle of his presidential campaign, Aleksandar Vucic approached Trump, not America; he made a hazardous move, entered the gamble of extremely uncertain American presidential elections, and put Serbia as a stake.
It is clear why Vučić decided to gamble – he is slowly but surely losing his footing in the European Union, especially Germany, and without the previous open support from abroad, his government is on glass legs. But Serbia, which still avails of the remnants of once balanced and stable Yugoslav diplomacy, did not need such gambling.
In the previous presidential elections in the USA, Vučić supported the candidate who lost. That, a much less visible mistake, he paid with a three-and-a-half-year cold attitude of the winner. Now, at the very end of Trump’s (first) mandate, Vučić is paying for a ticket to fly to his bench by disrupting Serbia’s diplomatic relations with Russia, the EU, the Arab world and Palestine. In the event of Biden’s victory, Serbia will pay even more for Vučić’s new dice.
It would have been better for everyone if Biden had ignored Vučić’s classification with Trump. Especially since Aleksandar Vučić does not really control the will of the Serbian diaspora – in the last presidential elections he won only 10% of its votes in the USA, and the second-runner, who is in opposition to him, won 60%. If Biden found the strength to stand up and extend his hand towards Serbia, that would be a real sign of a winning mentality. That sign would be noticed and rewarded by Serbs in America. They are small electorate, but it seems that every vote will be precious.
On this side of the ocean, the government in Serbia should pursue state, not private and party interests. And the opposition should not rejoice to the chance that anyone from abroad, including Biden, will punish Vučić. As in 1998, Serbia and its citizens would pay the largest fine in such a scenario.
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Stevenson’s army, October 7
Prince Bandar criticizes the Palestinians.
Taiwan wants more arms. Even more on that from SCMP.
Pompeo tries to build anti-China alliance.
Politico analyzes huge trade deficit.
New DHS domestic threat assessment cites Russia and white supremacists.
Lawfare notes Wilson’s plan to resign if he lost 1916 election.
DOD says it need digital age personnel.
Rob Wilson found this lively interview with former members of Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 24 – August 28, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Gender Equality 100 Years After the 19th Amendment | August 24, 2020 | 2:00 – 4:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
On August 26, 1920, the 19th amendment was adopted to the U.S. Constitution, granting some – though not all – American women the right to vote. 100 years later, relative equality at the ballot box has not been matched by equity in business, politics, the military, family life, and even retirement.
On August 24, as part of 19A: The Brookings Gender Equality Series, Brookings will host a webinar to examine the state of gender equality today and what needs to be done to achieve full equality for women in our society.
Tina Tchen, CEO of TIME’S UP Foundation and former executive director of the White House Council on Women and Girls will offer keynote remarks, followed by a conversation with Madeleine Albright, the first woman to serve as U.S. secretary of state. Susan Ware, who serves as the honorary women’s suffrage centennial historian at the Radcliffe Institute’s Schlesinger Library at Harvard, will provide a brief historical overview of the women’s suffrage movement. Then, Brookings experts Camille Busette, Elaine Kamarck, Isabel Sawhill, and Makada Henry-Nickie will convene a panel discussion to examine how gender equality has evolved since the amendment’s passage and what public reforms could address gender-based inequalities that persist today.
Speakers:
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program
Tina Tchen: President & CEO, TIME’S UP Foundation
Madeleine Albright: Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group
Tamara Cofman Wittes: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Susan Ware: Honorary Women’s Suffrage Centennial Historian, Schlesinger Library, Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard University
Makada Henry-Nickel: Fellow, Governance Studies
Isabel V. Sawhill: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Center on Children/Families, Future of the Middle Class Initiative
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director, Center for Effective Public Management & Senior Fellow, Governance Studies - Prospects for Peace in Sudan: Insights From the Armed Movements & Analysts | August 25, 2020 | 11:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The transition to civilian rule in Sudan took place one year ago this month, and the success of that transition depends in part on the successful conclusion of an internal peace agreement between the new transitional government in Khartoum and the various armed movements across Sudan’s regions. Though progress has been made, several of the largest and most powerful groups remain outside the peace process, while many of the issues at the heart of Sudan’s difficult center-periphery dynamics have yet to be addressed. Issues of power-sharing, federalism, restitution, and the role of religion in the state all remain unresolved. Even as the talks approach a hoped-for conclusion, several of Sudan’s regions are at the same time experiencing an uptick in violence and instability, underscoring the urgency around achieving a durable peace.
Speakers:
General Abdelaziz al-Hilu: Chairman, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North
Dr. Gibril Ibrahim: Chairman, Justice & Equality Movement
Dr. Elshafie Khidiri: Sudanese Political Advisor & Commentator
Dr. Annette Weber: Senior Fellow, German Institute for International & Security Affairs
Mr. Cameron Hudson: Senior Fellow, Africa Center, Atlantic Council - A Conversation With Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Mohammed Haneef Atmar | August 27, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Afghanistan’s peace process has faced hurdles—some familiar, some new—in recent months. There is increased hope that long-awaited negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban will begin imminently. But despite recent momentum following the Eid cease-fire at the end of July and the Loya Jirga organized by President Ghani at the beginning of August, major barriers remain ahead of talks. The levels of violence against Afghan security forces and civilians remain at unsustainable levels, and continued disputes over prisoner releases may delay the process further.
The lead up to intra-Afghan talks has made it clear that a sustainable peace in Afghanistan will require intensive international and regional support, both during negotiations and following any political settlement. Afghanistan’s acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Haneef Atmar, has led Afghanistan’s efforts to consolidate international support for the peace process in Afghanistan—including diverse neighbors, regional powers, and supportive western nations.
Join USIP as we host Minister Atmar for a virtual discussion about the Afghanistan peace process as talks with the Taliban get set to begin. The foreign minister will speak about the Afghan government’s ongoing efforts for peace and stability, as well as the role of the regional and international community in supporting peace efforts.
Speakers:
Andrew Wilder (Moderator): Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
H.E. Mohammed Haneef Atmar: Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan - The Mental Health Costs of Displacement | August 27, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
In addition to economic and legal insecurity, many refugees and IDPs suffer from the immediate and long-term effects of PTSD and other mental health issues resulting from their experiences with conflict, displacement, and discrimination in their new environments. While government and NGO initiatives exist in Jordan, Iraq, and other host countries to promote mental health awareness and services in refugee communities, these resources are insufficient to address this dire need.
How can aid and development programs prioritize mental health as a key component of refugee support? What are the gaps in the regional mental health systems that must be bridged in order to serve refugee communities? What initiatives exist to empower refugee communities at the grassroots level to advocate for mental health services?
Speakers:
Amira Roess (Moderator): Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Institute
Essam Daoud: Co-Founder & Director, Humanity Crew
Mohammad Abo-Hilal: Founder, Syria Bright Future - Palestine & the Arab World: A Relationship in Crisis? | August 27, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM AST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
For more than sixty years, the centrality of the Palestinian cause to the Arab world was without dispute, capturing the hearts and minds of people throughout the region and commanding the support of their governments. Today, however, this position has eroded and more Arab countries are pursuing enhanced relations with Israel despite its continued occupation and settlement of Palestine. This month, the United Arab Emirates announced it would establish official ties with Israel, and other countries are reportedly considering following suit. These developments beg the question: What has happened to Palestine’s place in the region and its relationships to regional allies?
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar on Palestine and the Arab world, which will consider the current state of relations and what it means for the Palestinian liberation movement today and in the future. The discussion will address questions such as: How and why have relations arrived at this point? How has Palestine’s diplomacy evolved and how adeptly has its leadership navigated the changing geopolitics of the region? What roles have been played by other countries—such as Egypt, Jordan, and the United States—and by the Palestinian diaspora? And what will the end of Oslo and the possibility of Israeli annexation mean for the region’s future?
Speakers:
Omar H. Rahman (Moderator): Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Nour Odeh: Political Analyst & Public Diplomacy Consultant
Shibley Telhami: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, U.S. Relations With the Arab World
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