Tag: Philippines
Stevenson’s army, April 28
– House defeats Gaetz measure to pullout from Somalia
-Face-off in the South China Sea
– Jake Sullivan explains administration foreign economic policy
– But Politico sees turf war over China policy.
-WaPo notes presidential news conferences are often managed.
– Vox summarizes lessons from 2011 debt ceiling fight.
– Court filing against Teixiera.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
– US agreement with Philippines is a big deal.
– Meanwhile, NYT says China is gaining in Indonesia.
– US intelligence doubts Ukraine gain in Crimea.
– Russia may expand attacks.
– India boosts defense spending 13%.
– Senators want to block F16s to Turkey.
– In FP, Rand analysts discuss lessons from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 31
– WaPo says US likely to get new Philippine bases.
– NYT describes WH procedures for classified materials.
– In FT, Gideon Rachman says culture wars are now part of foreign policy
– FP notes Biden donors who have become ambassadors.
SAIS grad John Gans has a review of Chris Whipple’s book on the Biden administration in NYT Book review. I’m a little less enthusiastic because it’s mostly interview quotes with officials with little new information. Whipple did succeed in getting many attributed quotes compared to a Bob Woodward book. So, yes, read Whipple.
Avoid, however, the new Mike Pompeo memoir, an angry, nasty book, full of venom even for most of his Trump administration colleagues, but not the former president. He brags about firing CIA analysts who said good things about JCPOA; he calls State the “worst platoon,” meaning it needed substantial reforms; he calls FSO’s “overwhelmingly hard left;” he savages Nikki Haley and John Bolton; he says Jim Mattis “was not a sound fit” for the administration and criticizes his views on Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and China; he expresses gratitude that Hillary Clinton was willing to talk to him about the SecState job, but then blasts her for being “the center of the Russia Hoax.” Turn these pages only with protective gloves. Burn after reading.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 21
– US wants expanded military presence in Philippines
– Germans consider subsidies to avoid trade war with US
– Iran helps Russia build drones, WaPo says.
– Russia has growing debt problem
– And the tech sanctions are hurting, too, says FP
– House GOP targets the Pentagon
– US pressures Netanyahu over defense appointment
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A lot to fear this Halloween, but…
The tragic and deadly stampede in Seoul during a Halloween celebration reminds us that there are real things to fear this year. Here is my list:
- Russian President Putin’s desperate efforts to prevent defeat in Ukraine.
- Chinese President Xi’s equally desperate efforts to exert hegemony in East Asia before his country’s inevitable demographic and likely economic decline.
- A delegitimized American election November 8, leading to more political violence.
- A deep recession that renews identity-based populism.
Putin’s last stand
Russian forces in Ukraine are retreating. The Ukrainian Army routed them in the northeast. In the south, the Russians are holding, but just barely. Ukraine’s air and sea drone attack on Russian naval ships in the Black Sea was a success. But it prompted Moscow to suspend the agreement that allowed export of Ukrainian grain. That will reduce revenue to Kyiv and jack up food prices in many of the most food insecure parts of the world.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning a “dirty bomb” attack using radioactive material. This is not a credible accusation, but it likely reflects what the Russians themselves are thinking of doing. The ultimate Russian threat is use of nuclear weapons. Putin has implied as much. That would bring a US conventional response of massive proportions. It can’t be ruled out, because the decisions of a single person are always subject to uncertainty. But it would spell the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want that.
Xi’s danger zone
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in their new book that the threat from China to US regional and global hegemony will peak in the 2020s. After that Beijing will be preoccupied with internal demographic, social, and economic problems. Impending decline, after a long period of advance, will motivate Xi to challenge the US sooner rather than later. Xi consolidated autocratic power at the recent 20th Communist Party Congress. There will be few checks and balances to offset his inclinations.
We’ve seen in Ukraine how catastrophic the decisions of one man can be. We saw it also in George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, which went virtually uncontested within the US. China has already swallowed Macau and Hong Kong. Xi wants to do likewise with Taiwan. But Taiwan is vital to the US capability of protecting its allies in East Asia, in particular South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The US would need to do its best to support Taiwan. A China/Taiwan war will make the stakes in Ukraine, and the violence, seem relatively small.
The American election at risk
On November 8 the US will go to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, in addition to many state and local officials. Right-wing election deniers are threatening the integrity of the election in many ways. These include disinformation about the process, threats against voters and election officials, and election officials and candidates who themselves are deniers and prepared to tip the balance. There is a real risk of violence if the election returns Democratic majorities to either the House or Senate, or both. There is also a real risk that Democrats will view Republican wins as illegitimate, though electoral violence from the left is less likely.
This election has significance beyond November 8. It is a dress rehearsal for 2024, when the election-denier-in-chief, Donald Trump, hopes to return as the Republican candidate for President. If he does, it is hard to picture a peaceful election. It is likely he will be indicted for national security violations and possibly also for tax fraud before 2024. Justified though those indictments may be, they will not improve the prospects for stability in the next two years.
An impending recession
The Federal Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates sharply to curb inflation, which has peaked around 8% on a yearly basis. While the US labor market is still tight and modest growth continues, the rest of the world is heading into a recession. The strong dollar, the war in Ukraine, and tension in East Asia are major factors. It is hard to believe that a global downturn won’t come home to roost in the US as well.
Inflation has already become a major issue in the November 8 election campaign. But if a recession hits in 2023, as many predict, the 2024 election could also be affected. Republican prospects will be better if Trump is not the candidate, but in any event American elections are often a referendum on the economy. An aging President Biden will find it hard to get re-elected if the downturn persists into 2024.
Scary Halloween
It’s a scary Halloween, even without the masks. But the defeat of President Bolsonaro in Brazil is a contrary indicator. Let’s hope it is an early indication that prospects are better than they appear!
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Stevenson’s army, August 6
– WOTR has a piece on military innovation, mainly about the army, but with excellent links to a wide range of writing on the subject.-
– Prof. Brands has a new book on “the coming conflict with China,” and WSJ has an excerpt.
– US strengthened defense ties with Philippines.
– NYT has background on Xi’s thinking about security.
– Politico sees multiple factors explaining Stevens/Levin contest, not just Israel.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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