Tag: Protests
Peace Picks | April 19 – April 23, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. The crisis in Ukraine: How to solve the Minsk conundrum | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM CEST | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Iryna Solonenko: Senior Fellow, LibMod, Berlin
Maxim Samorukov: Policy Fellow, Carnegie Center, Moscow
Gustav Gressel: Senior Policy Fellow, Wider Europe programme, ECFR
Joanna Hosa (moderator): Deputy Director, Wider Europe programme, ECFR
Since the end of March, Russia has been building up military forces alongside its border with Ukraine. Disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv (and the West) about the end-state and a way to implement the Minsk-agreement have existed since the very signing of the treaty. Yet, tensions between the two sides have grown over the past three months. What are the perceptions of the situation in Moscow, Kyiv and in the EU? What are the intentions behind the military build-up? How likely are the chances of escalation beyond the Donbas? How should the EU respond? And finally, how to solve the Minsk-conundrum: an agreement that is both un-implementable (because of its vagueness) but also indispensable (because the post-hot war status quo rests on it)?
2. Defense Project Series: A Talk with HR McMaster on Global Security | April 19, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Lieutenant General (ret.) H. R. McMaster: Former National Security Advisor
Major General (ret.) Bill Rapp (moderator): Lecturer in Military Affairs, Harvard University
Please join MG(Ret) Bill Rapp in a lively talk with HR McMaster, former National Security Advisor and retired Lieutenant General, as McMaster discusses global security challenges for the United States and its allies in the coming decade. McMaster calls for cleared eyed recognition of major threats facing the U.S. and to avoid the hubris that has marked much of the last thirty years of foreign policy.
3. Online influence in Georgia: A geopolitical crossroads | April 19, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Peter Wiebler: Mission Director, Georgia, USAID
Diana Chachua: Program and Communications Manager, Georgia, National Democratic Institute
David Stulik: Head of Eastern European Program, European Values Center for Security Policy
Eto Buziashvili: Research Associate, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab
Givi Gigitashvili: Research Assistant, Caucases, Digital Forensic Research Lab
Ia Meurmishvili (moderator): Senior Editor, TV Anchor, Journalist, Voice of America
The pre-election period in Georgia was characterized by a high degree of societal polarization, which was largely reflected in the country’s information environment. Domestic political actors undertook multiple inauthentic activities on Facebook to advance their political goals and mislead people. Beyond the domestic operations, the strategic public release of stolen documents ahead of elections by external actors was a new phenomenon for Georgia, as was the release generated widespread controversy and confusion. Georgian elections were also the target of Kremlin-led disruptions online whose primary objective was to instill a sense of vulnerability and demoralize Georgian voters.
Foreign interference and influence efforts remain a driving issue in the country of Georgia. In the DFRLab’s latest report, Fighting for the Hearts and Minds of Sakartvelo: The Georgian information environment during the 2020 parliamentary election, our regional experts provided primary source and technical analysis of how various actors – foreign and domestic – attempted to manipulate public opinion and influence recent election results, especially online. This conversation will begin with an overview of Georgians’ the national information environment, and panelists will explore the perceptions about, evidence of, and interplay between foreign and domestic attempts at influence operations in the recent 2020 elections.
4. Sustainable US presence in the Middle East: Balancing short and long-term needs | April 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Daniel L. Magruder Jr. (moderator): Federal Executive Fellow, Brookings Institution
Emma Ashford: Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Robert Pape: Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago
Becca Wasser: Fellow, Center for a New American Security
The president’s Interim National Security Guidance states that in the Middle East, “we will right-size our military presence to the level required to disrupt international terrorist networks, deter Iranian aggression, and protect other vital U.S. interests.” Against this backdrop are many questions concerning how the U.S. can balance its military commitments in the Middle East while also prioritizing longer-term progress. Is the current force posture necessary to support a more limited view of U.S. interests in the region, and are these commitments sustainable? Do current commitments in the region create unnecessary risks and constrain strategic choices to prepare for the future? What are the long-term trade-offs of more, or less, U.S. presence in the Middle East? On April 19, Foreign Policy at Brookings will convene a panel of practitioners, academics, and policy experts to address these key questions and discuss what a sustainable military presence in the Middle East looks like.
5. A New U.S. Approach to Israel-Palestine | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Salih Booker: President and CEO, the Center for International Policy
Khaled Elgindy: Senior Fellow, the Middle East Institute
Lara Friedman: President, the Foundation for Middle East Peace
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Zaha Hassan: Visiting Fellow, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Daniel Levy: President of the U.S. / Middle East Project
Ishaan Tharoor (moderator): Columnist, Washington Post
After three decades of an Israel-Palestine peace process that has entrenched occupation and seen settler numbers in the West Bank quadruple, it is time for a U.S. policy reset on conflict resolution. How can this U.S. administration help shift political calculations of Palestinians and Israelis, alter the negative trajectory of realities on the ground, and rebuild prospects for a durable peace? Please join co-authors Marwan Muasher, Zaha Hassan, and Daniel Levy for the launch of a paper calling for a new U.S. approach to the conflict that prioritizes the rights and human security of Palestinians and Israelis.
6. Civil Resistance Transitions: Dialogue, Trust and Democracy | April 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Zied Boussen: Tunisian Activist and Researcher
Veronique Dudouet: Senior Research Advisor, Berghof Foundation
Zahra Hayder: Sudanese Activist and Organizer
Roman-Gabriel Olar: Assistant Professor, Trinity College Dublin
Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lise Grande (moderator): President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Political transitions initiated through nonviolent action are more than three times as likely to end in peace and democracy than any other form of transition. Yet prominent cases such as the “Arab Spring” revolutions in Egypt and Syria — in which nonviolent action resulted in returns to authoritarianism or devastating civil war — show that this relationship is far from easy or direct. And even when some form of democracy is achieved, many young democracies struggle to gain the trust necessary for long-term peace and stability. How can movements navigate this uncertain road from a breakthrough against authoritarianism to long-term sustainable democracy? To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP and the Berghof Foundation for the third in a series of four events on people power, peace and democracy. The event series will highlight multiple groundbreaking research projects and feature insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.
7. Business As Usual or Time for Change? Revisiting U.S. Strategy in the Middle East | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Dalia Dassa Kaye: Fellow, RAND Corporation
Ilan Goldenberg: Director, Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Michele Dunn: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
James F. Jeffrey (moderator): Chair of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center
This roundtable will feature experts representing a variety of think tanks who have recently issued reports on U.S. Middle East strategy. With the start of a new Administration, this is an opportune moment for Washington to rethink some of the fundamental premises underlying American policymaking in the Middle East and to review how America engages the region. The experts will compare ideas and approaches, exploring whether new policy directions are possible for a region still mired in conflict.
8. Afghanistan’s Next Chapter: What Happens as U.S. Troops Leave? | April 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Haseeb Humayoon: Partner, Qara Consulting, LLC
Laurel Miller: Program Director, Asia, International Crisis Group
Dipali Mukhopadhyay: Senior Expert on Afghanistan Peace Processes, U.S Institute of Peace
Nader Nadery: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Chairman of the Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission
Muqaddesa Yourish: Country Director, Lapis Communications
Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
President Biden has announced that the United States will withdraw all remaining military forces from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021 — likely marking a definitive end to America’s longest war just months before its two-decade anniversary. The decision fundamentally changes the dynamics of the Afghan peace process, as the Taliban have defined their insurgency by opposition to perceived occupation by foreign troops. With those troops leaving, will the Taliban negotiate with fellow Afghans or seek an outright military victory? And will U.S. troop withdrawal push Afghans to unify around preserving the current democratic constitution, or to seek deals that give the Taliban more power in a political settlement to the conflict? Join USIP for a discussion with leading experts on the immediate implications of these developments, as well as a look at what the future of the Afghan conflict and peace process might look like as U.S. troops begin a final withdrawal from the country.
9. COVID-19 and Political Systems – Insights and Lessons One Year In | April 22, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:15 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Sandra Breka: Member, the Board of Management at the Robert Bosch Stiftung
Thomas Caruthers: Interim President, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Chan Heng Chee: Ambassador-at-Large, the Singapore Foreign Ministry
Ivan Krastev: Permanent Fellow, the Institute for Human Sciences, IWM Vienna
Ngaire Woods: Founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and professor of Global Economic Governance, Oxford University
COVID-19 has put pressure on political systems everywhere to deliver effective governance on an emergency basis. Within months of the pandemic’s arrival, it became clear the key determinant for meeting this challenge was not whether a political system was authoritarian or democratic, but whether a system had an adequate degree of state capacity, preparedness, and public trust.
Now a year into the pandemic, new political challenges have emerged. For democracies, what lessons and reforms will they address following the crisis? For authoritarians, will their many power-grabs from the start of the pandemic become permanent? Also in question is whether populist political forces will benefit or suffer from their leadership, given rising public discontent spurred by pandemic restrictions and mismanagement and yet the greater appreciation for scientific advancements. Finally, the relatively good performance of Asian nations—democratic and authoritarian—relative to Western nations and supranational bodies, suggests a shifting landscape of global power.
10. The Arctic as Emerging Geopolitical Flashpoint | April 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Robert Huebert (moderator): Associate Professor, University of Calgary
Michael Byers: Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law, University of British Columbia
Rear Admiral Martin La Cour-Andersen: Defense Attaché to the United States and Canada, Embassy of Denmark in the United States, Danish Department of Defense
Rebecca Pincus: Assistant Professor at the United States Naval War College
Jonathon Quinn: Director General of Continental Defence, Department of National Defence, Government of Canada
The Arctic feels the impact of climate change more intensely than the rest of the globe. Regardless of national and international efforts to mitigate the emissions that drive climate change, much of the ongoing change in the Arctic is already established and will continue to accelerate. These changes will dramatically affect not only the Arctic’s environment, but also its security, defense, and ability to be exploited for its resources and used for transportation. This year’s annual conference will delve into these emerging issues in the Arctic from the perspective of trans-border impact, initiatives and need for cooperation. Our expert panelists and distinguished lecturers will cover issues ranging from the concrete change taking place, to emerging national security issues, to economic growth and regulation, to the impact on and role of indigenous peoples. Our guests and presenters from government, academia, and industry will review these topics from their national and sector viewpoints and engage the audience in much-needed dialogue on the issues.
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Information and social media in the Arab Spring
At the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring, one question that remains unanswered is whether the use of social media presaged today’s world of rampant disinformation, coordinated online trolls, and weaponized information. While protestors’ use of the internet during the revolutions initially caught most governments flat-footed, manipulating information to maintain domestic control is increasingly commonplace. In this virtual event March 10, the Atlantic Council explored how social media evolved over the course of a single decade from a symbol of hope to a tool for manipulation. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Rasha A. Abdulla: Professor, Journalism and Mass Communication Department, The American University in Cairo (AUC)
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow and Managing Director, DFRLab, Atlantic Council
Borzou Daragahi: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Tuqa Nusairat (moderator): Deputy Director, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
The Age of Innocence
A common theme among all of the panelists was the innocent nature of social media in the early days of the Arab Spring. This innocence extended to both governments’ conceptions of the internet and activists’ uses of it. As Carvin noted, governments were initially naive about the revolutionary potential of the internet. As a result, early attempts to repress activists during the Arab Spring often took the form of traditional violence and coercion rather than the manipulation of digital spaces, reflecting a lack of concern that the internet and social media could be a significant mobilizing force. Abdulla echoed these sentiments. She relayed an anecdote frequently shared about the Mubarak regime in Egypt during the first demonstrations against the Egyptian government, when members of the regime stated that they would “let the kids play” with social media and the internet.
Innocence regarding the nature of the internet likewise extended to activists themselves. Daragahi pointed to the open nature of the internet in 2011, in which activists posted statements on social media using their real names. Carvin similarly recalled speaking with a Tunisian activist in 2011 who extolled the virtues of having her/his name associated with online comments. Both panelists contrasted this early use of the internet for activism with more recent years, in which activists have increasingly gravitated towards pseudonyms and encrypted telecommunications, where the risk of repression is substantially lower.
The Rise of Coordinated Disinformation
As governments became more aware of the power of the internet and social media to destabilize their hold on power, they began to develop increasingly sophisticated methods for maintaining control over the information environment. Carvin commented on the ability of regimes to adapt new, more effective methods for exploiting the digital sphere. The first instance of regime counter-responses to digital activism occurred in Syria in 2011, where the Assad regime used bots to amplify random stories about Syria that crowded out activists’ tweets. In Saudi Arabia, the government used real people to push propaganda and pro-government narratives rather than bots. Throughout the region, governments have become more adept at crowding out activists from social media or identifying and targeting opposition voices.
Carvin suggested that one of the most insidious recent developments in disinformation has been the growth of private firms available for hire that will create disinformation campaigns on demand. He specifically pointed to a Tunisian firm that has created disinformation to support multiple political candidates in Togo, Cote d’Ivoire, and Tunisia, but he noted that the degree to which these firms exist and the scale of their disinformation networks is as yet largely unknown. Abdulla also identified social media platforms as playing a role in crowding out activist voices. She especially condemned the practice of ghost-banning, in which platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram decrease the visibility of certain users. This process is particularly problematic because it occurs with no transparency and is often difficult to identify at all.
While governments have learned to more effectively control digital spaces, Daragahi stressed that the use of social media and the internet is only one facet of activism. Ultimately, the ability to mobilize on the streets and the desire to effect change upon the world are far more consequential determinants of political change.
To watch the event in full, please click here:
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Peace Picks | January 25-29
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here
December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.
Speakers:
Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University
Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA
Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar
Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University
Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women
Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London
Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University
Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University
2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success. The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts. This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.
Speakers:
Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University
3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.
This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.
The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?
The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.
Speakers:
Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR
Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome
4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here
Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.
What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.
Speakers:
Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI
Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy
Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy
5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.
As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.
Speakers:
Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS
Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International
Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture
Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations
6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.
Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.
Speakers:
Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya
Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT
Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense
Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.
The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.
The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Speakers:
Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service
Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group
Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.
Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.
Speakers:
Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University
Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer
Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.
Speakers:
Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research
Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies
Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center
10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.
On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan
Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Thai protests make progress, but…
In 2020, a youth-led protest movement began to spread across Thailand as protestors called for fundamental political change in the Kingdom, including a new election, constitution and reforms to the structure of the monarchy. On January 19, the United States Institute of Peace convened a roundtable to discuss the political dynamics of the movement, its future, and the potential for the US government to craft a constructive response. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Brian Harding (Moderator): Senior Expert, Southeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Rattaphol “Ahn” Onsanit: Thai Service Chief, Voice of America
Penchan Phoborisut: Assistant Professor, California State University, Fullerton
Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Desmond Walton: Senior Director, BowerGroupAsia; U.S. Army Colonel (ret.) and former U.S. Defense Attaché to Thailand
Twitter enables the movement
Throughout 2020–and continuing into 2021–a youth-led pro-democracy movement has emerged across Thailand. While the largest demonstrations have largely been concentrated in Bangkok, Onsanit notes that the emergence of symbolic protests in schools throughout the countryside indicates that the movement is more generational and ideological than it is geographic.
Social media has largely driven the movement’s momentum. Phoborisut points to the relatively high saturation of Twitter among the Thai as a particularly critical factor. Activists have used hashtags such as #whatshappeninginthailand to raise awareness for their campaign, while protestors have also used Twitter to create transnational networks with activists in foreign countries. In particular, the hashtags #milkteaalliance and #howtomob have connected Thai protestors with activists in Hong Kong, who have shared lessons learned and tactical advice from their own experiences with protests.
Positive prospects, but no guarantees
According to Pinckney, two elements of the Thai protest movement suggest positive prospects for the future. First, the movement has exhibited the tactical flexibility typical of most successful protests. By switching between mass demonstrations and dispersed tactics such as the display of banners, hand gestures, and flash mobs–a necessity due to both government repression and the COVID-19 pandemic–the movement has continued to place pressure on King Vajiralongkorn despite the trying times. Second, the movement to date has managed to largely remain nonviolent. As a result, protestors maintain popular legitimacy while government repression has sparked widespread public backlash, leading to the possibility of a more broad-based movement in the future.
However, Pinckney cautions that activists should not count on the ability of social media to generate international awareness and support in the long-term. As protests in other countries have demonstrated, international attention can quickly waver without durable, institutional commitments to the movement. Moreover, Onsanit also warns that protest leaders have so far shown an unwillingness to compromise, diminishing the prospects for a negotiated agreement between activists and the monarchy.
Limits on US support
In the past, the US government has consistently prioritized security and economic issues over political issues when developing its relationship with Thailand. The political dimension, which has included coup attempts, growing authoritarian tendencies, and human rights abuses, has been the shakiest pillar of the US-Thai relationship long before the current wave of protests. Given this history, Walton suggests that the incoming Biden administration is more likely to support reform-oriented dialogue rather than an anti-monarchy agenda. Thai activists’ current refusal to negotiate could thus complicate the US response to the protests.
Nevertheless, he also proposes concrete steps that the new administration can take to maximize its decision-making ability. First, he recommends returning to career ambassadors in Thailand with deep knowledge of the country and region. Second, the Biden administration should reconcile differences between the idealists and pragmatists in his administration as the Thai monarchy can weaponize inconsistencies in US foreign policy around the world to diminish America’s ability to support protests in Thailand. Ultimately, then, US influence will hinge on a combination of the outcome of ideological competition within the movement and strategic decision-making by the U.S.
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Ten years of Arab protests but little change
Almost ten years have passed since the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi sparked mass protests in Tunisia, sparking regime change and brutal civil wars across the Arab world. While most consider the initial uprisings in 2011 an abject failure for the cause of democracy in the region, the resurgence of mass protests over the last two years in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and elsewhere demonstrate that the Arab Spring continues to smolder. The Wilson Center convened a panel of scholars to address the future for a region destabilized by ten years of civil unrest.
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
The genie is out of the bottle
Rami Khouri, Marina Ottaway and Ziad Abu-Rish all concurred that mass protests were a “new normal” for the Middle East that should be expected throughout the region into the future.
Khouri points to several factors that prompt citizens across the region to protest their governments. The economic situation has become dire for many citizens of Arab states. The middle class has all but disappeared and most governments are no longer able to provide basic necessities for their citizens. Citizens are overwhelmingly turning to civil society for support. COVID-19 has increased inequality regionwide. MENA is the only region that is overwhelmingly authoritarian and adept at suppressing discontent. The resulting clash between the desperation of the citizenry and repression will lead to more mass protests until one side finally gives way.
The speakers concur that the same economic factors that stir discontent can also deprive protests of their strength. Abu-Rish notes that fatigue from economic deprivation has caused a lull in the Lebanese protests after the explosion. Arab governments understand this, and thus are playing a war of attrition against protestors.
Solidarity has grown through shared strife
Rami has noticed another new phenomenon created by a decade of protests – a cross-cutting sense of national identity. Ottoway echoed this sentiment, explaining that as protestors from different walks of life interact with each other, they realize that they are protesting for the same set of basic human needs and are able to overcome their ideological differences. But she cautions that not all Arabs share the same principles of citizenry; some are happy to live under authoritarian leaders if doing so grants them security and privilege.
But opposition needs leadership
Ottaway and Abu-Rish were less optimistic about the prospects of democratization and liberalization in the Middle East than Khouri. The protestors, while they are united in the belief that the status quo must be changed, have competing visions about what should replace it. Ottaway also notes that, historically, change almost always occurs from the top down. The decentralized nature of the protests means that protestors will find it difficult to persuade policymakers that change is needed. She points to Tunisia, Sudan, and the American civil rights movement to argue that change only occurrs because there are leaderships within the opposition that persuaded the ruling elites to make changes.
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IDPs protest in Iraq, but refugees not so much in Lebanon
Both Lebanon and Iraq are experiencing nationwide popular protests. Protesters are calling for an end to government corruption, greater economic opportunity, and more reliable public services. On August 21, 2020, the Middle East Institute convened a panel to discuss the role that refugees and displaced people play in political organizing in each country. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below.
Joyce Karam (Moderator): Washington Correspondent, The National
Sawsan Abdulrahmin: Associate Professor of Public Health, American University of Beirut
Noof Assi: Women’s Protection & Empowerment Coordinator, Emergency Response Team, International Rescue Committee; Co-Founder, IQ Peace
Background & Context
Lebanon and Iraq are both home to refugees, migrants, and/or displaced peoples. But the composition of each state’s domestic public is different.
Lebanon is home to approximately 1.7 million refugees. It hosts the greatest number of Syrian refugees per capita in the entire world, with 1.5 million. The remaining refugees are Palestinian and inhabit Lebanon’s southern region.
Iraq, by comparison, is home to few refugees, who reside in Iraqi Kurdistan. But one-third of all Iraqis, approximately 1.4 million people, are internally displaced. The majority of Iraq’s IDPs were displaced as a result of the Islamic State’s territorial campaigns. For the most part, IDPs live in camps in central and southern Iraq.
Political Organizing in Lebanon
For much of the last year, Lebanon’s economy has been in shambles. These issues pervade Lebanese society, affecting the middle class, the working class, and refugees as well. In response to the bleak economic situation and decades of government mismanagement, a protest movement emerged. Though refugees were adversely affected by the crisis, they played a minor role, if any, in the protest movement. Much of the protestors’ rhetoric was nationalistic. Only a minority of protestors had any interest in refugee rights.
On August 4, 2020, approximately 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded at Beirut’s port. The explosion devastated the city, and compounding the ongoing crisis. It rendered 300,000 people homeless and killed more than 200 people. The explosion’s effect was multinational and cross-class.
Immediately following the explosion, the Lebanese authorities published a list with the names of the individuals killed or rendered missing as a result of the blast. The list, however, was incomplete. It excluded the names of refugees and migrant workers. Approximately 40 Syrian refugees, 4 Bangladeshi migrant workers, and 2 Palestinian refugees were either killed or rendered missing as a result of the Beirut Port explosion.
Fortunately, the tide seems to be turning. The media has begun to tell the stories of the refugees and migrant workers injured in the blast. Funds have been raised for Syrian refugees whose injuries required major surgery. Some television programs even recognized the Palestinian Civil Defense for its involvement in rescue operations.
Refugees did not have a major presence at the protests which followed the explosion.
Political Organizing in Iraq
Iraq is no stranger to political protests. That said, the October 2019 protest movement is unique. It is led by Iraq’s youth and does not have one single leader. The protesters are asking for the fulfillment of their basic needs. They have faced live ammunition, though they have been entirely nonviolent. Some participants have been kidnapped and even assassinated. Approximately 700 protesters have been killed, and another 25,000 have been injured. They refuse to be intimidated, however. According to Noof Assi, they have nothing to live for and, thus, nothing to lose.
Displaced peoples have had a major presence at the protests. Indeed, issues related to displacement played a role in the onset of the protests. The government has failed to make former ISIS territory inhabitable but has also evicted thousands of people from IDP camps. Many of Iraq’s 1.4 million displaced peoples have nowhere to return to and are reliant on aid from NGOs. They were compelled to act.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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