Tag: Protests
Civil resistance requires stamina
In June, U.S. Institute of Peace Program Officer Jonathan Pinckney published From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Traditions. The book centers upon political transitions brought about by civil resistance, and attempts to explain why certain resistance movements result in democratization while others do not. To review the book’s core assertions, as well as gauge its applicability to ongoing resistance movements, the US Institute of Peace convened a panel of the following:
Maria Stephan (Moderator): Director, Nonviolent Action, US Institute of Peace
Erica Chenoweth: Berthold Beitz Professor in Human Rights & International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Zachariah Mampilly: Marxe Chair of International Affairs, City University of New York
Hardy Merriman: President & CEO, International Center on Nonviolent Conflict
Jonathan Pinckney: Program Officer, Nonviolent Action, US Institute of Peace
Huda Shafig: Program Director, Karama
Civil Resistance in Writing
Since World War II, there have been more than 300 political transitions. Of these transitions, 78 were brought about by civil resistance. Pinckney’s book examined all of the aforementioned transitions, albeit some in greater detail than others. Pinckney studied three cases closely: Brazil in 1984, Zambia in 1991 and Nepal in 2006.
He found that political transitions initiated through civil resistance were three times more likely to result in democratization than other types of political transitions. Nevertheless, civil resistance transitions were not certain to result in democratization. He identified two key challenges to the onset of democracy: mobilization and maximalism.
Pinckney stressed the importance of maintaining mobilization, as successful resistance movements require targeted and consistent activism. He also cautioned would-be protestors against adopting an all-or-nothing attitude. Instead, Pinckney advocated for moderation and dialogue. Civil resistance is the most direct road from authoritarianism to democracy, but its success is determined by how effectively a resistance movement mobilization is maintained and maximalism is avoided.
Civil Resistance in Theory
In recent years, the prevalence of civil resistance has increased dramatically. Its efficacy, however, has decreased. Chenoweth attributes this unfortunate shift to the manner in which resistance movements currently manifest. Contemporary resistance movements are intent on achieving quick results and consequently lack the ability to organize, engage in negotiations, and ultimately herald a political transformation. Digital organizing and street demonstrations are important but not at the expense of capacity-building, Chenoweth argues.
According to Merriman, movements can address this issue by setting clear expectations. The average civil resistance movement takes three years to conclude, and many resistance movements persist for far longer. The vast majority of participants, however, expect to see results in as little as 3-6 months time. When participants understand the scope of their commitment, Merriman asserts, they are better equipped not only to dismantle existing institutions but also to build new ones.
Civil Resistance in Practice
This is certainly the case in Sudan, where a popular resistance movement has been active for upwards of seven months and succeeded in effecting political change. Despite Sudan’s rich history of citizen protest, the protests were only able to trigger a political transition last year.
In Shafig’s eyes, the ongoing movement has been successful because it is unlike its predecessors. It began outside of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum; participants share a commitment to non-violence; the movement is well-coordinated, with common policy goals; and the movement’s de-centralized nature allows for local leaders to immerse themselves in the movement and tailor it to their respective needs.
In a nod to Pinckney’s book, Shafig also notes that Sudan’s resistance movement has maintained participant mobilization well. Participants engage in continuous activism via neighborhood-based resistance committees. These local committees engage in joint-planning talks with other committees across Sudan, ensuring that support for the transition is widespread. Perhaps Sudan can serve as a model for future civil resistance movements.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Peace Picks | August 17 – August 21, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- A Conversation With Former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton | August 17, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Monday, August 17, 2020, from 12 p.m. to 12:45 p.m. EDT for a conversation featuring former US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Secretary Clinton’s experience from the Department of State, Senate, and the campaign trail makes her ideally suited to ponder the top foreign policy priorities in the next four years for the next presidential administration. The discussion will focus on America’s role in the world in the new decade and the future of US leadership, at an inflection point in history.
This special edition of the #ACFrontPage event series, launches the Atlantic Council’s Elections 2020: America’s Role in the World, a series of conversations on the top foreign policy priorities for the next four years, featuring the most prominent voices shaping the national dialogue. From the Conventions to the Elections, the series will explore key questions concerning America’s role and interests in the world, bringing a foreign policy perspective to the conversation and addressing the most critical issues at the intersection between the domestic and international spheres.
Speakers:
The Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton: Former Secretary of State, United States of America
Fredrick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council - Afghanistan’s Future: Regional Perspectives on the Road Ahead | August 18, 2020 | 8:30 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Future outcomes in Afghanistan will be shaped for years to come by two key milestones: the withdrawal of U.S. troops and negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives. In this virtual panel discussion, contributors to a recent series on the future of Afghanistan in South Asian Voices, Stimson’s online magazine, will come together to share perspectives from across the region and explore how Afghanistan, the United States, Pakistan, India, and Iran might respond to a range of future scenarios.
Speakers:
Bismellah Alizada: Co-Founder, Rahila Foundation; Deputy Director, Organization for Policy Research & Development Studies (DROPS)
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate, International Relations, University of Karachi
Neha Dwivedi: Research Analyst, Janes
Jumakhan Rahyab: Fulbright Graduate Fellow, University of Massachusetts
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Center for Air Power Studies (New Delhi); South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow, Stimson Center
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Senior Fellow & Deputy Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center - Has Belarus Reached a Point of No Return? | August 18, 2020 | 11:00 – 11:45 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
Following a stolen election which allowed 26-year strongman ruler Alexander Lukashenko to claim a landslide victory, tens of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets across more than 30 towns and cities to demand his resignation and new elections. Met with shocking brutality, armed police and interior ministry troops have been deployed by the thousands, indiscriminately attacking protestors and journalists with live and rubber bullets as well as flash grenades. Despite the violence, massive protests have continued into the week even as authorities disabled internet connections in the evenings and, as of August 12, detained more than 6,000 protestors.
The situation remains dynamic. Opposition challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has fled to neighboring Lithuania under duress after conceding defeat in what appeared to be a forced televised address. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, one of the first leaders to congratulate Lukashenko for his victory, hinted in his message that Moscow’s support for the embattled president may be contingent on Belarus’ further integration with Russia. The United States and European Union have condemned the crackdown, and EU foreign ministers are set to meet on August 14 to discuss targeted sanctions.
Has Belarus passed the point of no return where Lukashenko’s leadership is no longer tenable? Can the opposition movement inside the country continue without a leader? How might Russia respond in the event of an escalation in protests and Lukashenko’s departure? What are the implications for European security? How should the United States and European Union respond to these developments?
Speakers:
Valery Tsepkalo: Former Ambassador to the United States, Belarus; Candidate for President (2020), Belarus
Vladislav Inozemtsev: Non-Resident Senior Associate, CSIS
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, & the Arctic, CSIS - The Status of the Fight Against ISIS | August 18, 2020 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
ISIS has lost its territory in Syria and is no longer able to conduct large-scale internal or external attacks. Nonetheless, the organization has been able to regroup, continues to generate funds through its illicit activities, and has resumed low-level operations.
The United States and its partners must solidify gains against ISIS, particularly as the possibility looms of a further drawdown of US troops in Syria. Active combat against the group is winding down. It is now necessary to prevent a future ISIS resurgence by finding ways to keep up the pressure while also tackling the root causes of the wider unrest. What challenges remain for US and European policymakers in order to eliminate an ISIS revival? What support is still needed for local partners and communities to ensure they are not at risk from ISIS again?
Speakers:
Jomana Qaddour (Moderator): Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Jasmine El-Gamal: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
Christopher Maier: Director, Defeat ISIS Task Force, Office of the Secretary of Defense, US Department of Defense
Robert Rhode: Ambassador for Negotiations on Syria & Head of Division for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, & Anti-ISIS Strategy, German Federal Foreign Office - How the United States Can Use Force Short of War | August 19, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In their new book “Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy,” co-authors and Stimson Center experts Barry Blechman, James Siebens, and Melanie Sisson argue that during the Cold War, U.S. efforts to coerce other states using non-violent methods short of war failed as often as they succeeded. But unlike the Soviet Union, whose economy was stagnant and technology behind the West, in the coming years, the United States must contend with far more capable competitor powers. The book generates insight into how the U.S. military can be used to achieve policy goals. Specifically, it provides guidance about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, U.S. armed forces can work in concert with economic and diplomatic elements of U.S. power to create effective coercive strategies.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon (Moderator): Director of Research, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Barry Blechman: Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center
Melanie Sisson: Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center - The Kashmir Conflict: A Year of Tumult | August 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Stimson Center | Register Here
Join USIP and the Stimson Center for a conversation, featuring Stimson South Asia Program Director Sameer Lalwani, focused on the tensions between India and Pakistan and prospects for resolving the bilateral dispute, as well as the domestic Kashmiri resistance and both the violent and non-violent movements within Kashmir that may challenge Indian attempts to reshape Kashmir’s status.
Speakers:
Happymon Jacob: Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Sameer Lalwani: Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center
Tamanna Salikuddin: Director, South Asia Program, U.S. Institute of Peace - Protest Movements & Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society | August 21, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront.
How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?
Speakers:
Joyce Karam (Moderator): Washington Correspondent, The National
Sawsan Abdulrahmin: Associate Professor of Public Health, American University of Beirut
Noof Assi: Women’s Protection & Empowerment Coordinator, Emergency Response Team, International Rescue Committee; Co-Founder, IQ Peace
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Protest rises across the Middle East
“Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq?” On June 24, the Middle East Institute held an online discussion on protests and solidarity movements in states throughout the Middle East. The event was moderated by Zahra Hakir and featured four guest speakers:
Zahra Hankir (Moderator): Freelance journalist and author, Our Women on the Ground: Essays by Arab Women Reporting from the Arab World
Zahra Ali: Assistant Professor of Sociology, Rutgers University-Newark
Ahmed Abu Artema: Palestinian journalist and peace activist
Razan Ghazzawi: Doctoral candidate, University of Sussex
Lokman Slim: Director, Hayya Bina and UMAM
Iraq
Ali believes that the protests that have occurred across Iraq since October 2019 symbolize an unprecedented attempt by ordinary Iraqis to change the course of their nation’s contemporary history. In Tahrir Square in Baghdad, activists occupy the streets and have begun to provide free educational and cultural services to Iraqi citizens. Through their work, these activists have developed new codes of conduct that question traditional conceptions of gender norms. Ali believes that the US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 engendered divisions along sectarian lines. To protesters in Iraq, resentment against these divisions lay at the heart of their dismay.
Syria
Ghazzawi highlights that recent protests in Daraa, Idlib, Afrin, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and Suwayda arose following the imposition of new political and socio-economic realities by the Syrian state, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The demand to release detained protesters has uniformly resonated throughout protests across Syria. Ghazzawi believes that these protests challenge previous analysis of essentialist notions of sectarianism in Syria. In addition, Ghazzawi finds these protests to be significant in the way in which they challenge authoritiarian, colonial, and partition geography. The protests require one to think beyond the model of the Syrian state vis-à-vis the opposition.
Solidarity with BLM in Palestinian Territories
There is a history of solidarity between the cause of Palestinian liberation and Black social justice movements. Abu Artema highlights the recent development of solidarity movements in the Palestinian Territories with the Black Lives Matter movement and protests against the death of George Floyd. Abu Artema stresses that in expressing solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement, Palestinians have simultaneously protested against instances of aggression by Israeli soldiers.
Lebanon
Slim underscores that the rise of anti-establishment protests in Lebanon has surpassed sectarian lines. Similar to Iraq, Lebanon remains plagued by the ramifications of sectarian divisions. Because of the economic collapse and the failure of the Lebanese healthcare system amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, protests in Lebanon have increased in intensity. To Slim, these protests have exposed growing dislike for Hezbollah among Lebanese citizens, who associate the group with Lebanon’s corrupt government. Furthermore, the enactment of the United States Caesar Civilian Protection Act may have deleterious consequences for Hezbollah, which has backed the Assad-regime throughout the Syrian Civil War.
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Stevenson’s army, June 7
– CJCS Milley has reached out to Capitol Hill leaders.
– “General” Barr backtracks, too. But Politico has photos of his anti-protester activities in 1968.
– A former speechwriter for Gen. Dunford describes weakening of civilian control of US military.
– Several reports say Trump demanded 10,000 active duty military to be deployed in DC.
-WaPo writer suggests US counterinsurgency and urban warfare doctrine has made militarization of police more acceptable.
– WSJ has long article describing souring of US corporate views of China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The waiting game should end
Since February 2019, millions of Algerians throughout the country have assembled en masse to demonstrate frustration and dissatisfaction with the political system of former president Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika, who had announced his candidacy for a fifth mandate. The combination of rampant corruption within the ranks of the senior officials alongside Bouteflika’s physical and mental impairment led Algerians to say enough. As the popular movement (Hirak) expanded and demonstrations grew larger and more consistent with each passing Friday, Bouteflika’s long-standing reign over Algeria came to an end in April with news of his resignation. Hirak now is in its 22nd week, maintaining its peaceful nature despite arrests and imprisonment of protesters and opposition figures.
Realizing the importance of Algeria, the Brookings Institution hosted an event on “Algeria’s Uprising: Protesters and the Military” on July 17. While the event was introduced by Vice President and Director Bruce Jones, the panel was composed of Africa Policy Analyst Alexis Arieff, Visiting Fellow Sharan Grewal, former Ambassador to Algeria Robert Ford. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes moderated.
The event revolved around the findings of a survey Grewal conducted of over 9,000 Algerians via Facebook advertisements that targeted Algerians above the age of 18 and living in Algeria. In order to perform a comparative study between civilians and military personnel, the program used targeted individuals who showed an interest in or stated that they are part of the military in any way.
Of the 9,000 Algerians surveyed, over 7,000 were civilian, while just under 2,000 were military. Grewal presented the data through a series of graphs that covered topics such as support for protest goals, the scheduled July 4th Presidential elections, and potential civil-military frictions. Results showed a divide between junior and senior officers in the military, as soldiers and junior officers tended to side with the protest movement and the civilian population at large.
Following the presentation of the findings, Grewal was joined by Arieff, Cofman-Wittes, and Ford to discuss the numbers as well as the political climate in Algeria. What makes the Algerian movement so unique is that it has remained peaceful 5 months on—a feat that contrasts with the country’s brutal “Black Decade” civil war in the 1990s.
Arieff, comparing the two events, remarked that Algerians learned from the experiences of Syria and Libya as well as their own: they are reluctant to undergo a repetition of the civil war that traumatized a generation. Additionally, Arieff noted that the senior leadership in the military has observed that repression can backfire, as in Tunisia.
Although the Hirak has endured, it is not clear what will happen next. According to Grewal, the regime is unable to build a roadmap without the people’s consent since doing so will be rejected during the Friday protests. The next step should be a dialogue between the people and the current leadership; however, as Grewal pointed out, without the removal of the 2Bs (Bensalah and Bedoui)—both represent the old regime—such negotiations and talks will most likely not come about.
Ford noted that the next step should the emergence of a candidate or political group that represents Hirak; however, many have been reluctant to do so for fear of being discredited or targeted. Military pressure has not
As Ford remarked, “if you are in the game you can achieve gradual, but real change.” While the tens of millions of Algerians participating in the democratic protests for over 20 weeks is an achievement, setting the gears in motion for a governmental transition should be the next step.
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