Tag: Russia Ukraine
Stevenson’s army, January 24
Lots of leaks following the Camp David meeting to discuss Ukraine options. Most strike me as authorized, rather than an effort by those losing the interagency debate. NYT says US might send more troops to Baltics. WaPo says US plans heavy sanctions to prevent transfer to Russia of US semiconductors and aircraft parts.
– Meanwhile, US & UK have begun withdrawals of dependents and some staff from Ukraine.
– FT suggest all the publicity has undercut effectiveness of deterrent.
– WSJ sees Russia angle in US sale of F16s to Turkey.
– NYT writer says Pakistan army wants US back in region.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Silence is also a message, of disloyalty
Donald Trump, who often sounds as if he can’t control the words coming out of his mouth, is strikingly silent on some things:
- the Kremlin’s poisoning of Alexei Navalny;
- Russian support to Belarus President Lukashenko’s falsification of election results;
- Russian bounties paid to Taliban fighters for killing Americans.
There is a common denominator here: Vladimir Putin, to whom Trump has been sending fawning letters for a long time. The Senate last week confirmed on a bipartisan basis that Putin sought to help Trump in the 2016 election. He is also trying now, the US intelligence community says.
So it is no surprise that Trump hesitates to speak up against Putin. Trump likes people who like him, as confirmed once again this week when he welcomed the support of the QAnon conspiracy theorists, whom the FBI characterizes as a domestic terrorism threat. Putin supports Trump, Trump doesn’t criticize Putin. QAnon support Trump, Trump doesn’t criticize QAnon.
But I doubt that is the whole story. Trump has also shown disloyalty to those who are loyal to him, claiming that he barely knows them once they get in trouble. Steve Bannon got a taste of Trump’s disloyalty when he was arrested this week for defrauding people who gave money for building a wall on the border. Trump and Don Jr. had welcomed this effort, but now the President says “”It’s a very sad thing by Mr. Bannon…I didn’t like that project. I thought it was a project being done for showboating reasons…I didn’t want a wall that was going to be an inferior wall.” Of course that won’t stop Trump from pardoning Bannon or commuting his sentence after conviction to prevent him from spilling the beans about Trump.
Trump has never to my knowledge said anything even remotely critical of Putin. The message he is sending by his silence is that Putin can do no wrong. The President of the United States will not call him out publicly (and there is no indication Trump has done it privately). Trump’s motives are obscure, but the likelihood is that Russian financing of his real estate is a major factor. Putin is enjoying his impunity. He has semi-successfully intervened not only in Ukraine but also in Syria and Libya. He is backing a notorious election fraud in Belarus. He is murdering opponents at home and abroad. He intervened in the 2016 US election and is doing it again in 2020.
It is true that under Congressional pressure the Trump Administration has levied sanctions on Russia, mainly for its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea as well as malicious cyber activities and other malfeasances. But even the attempted murder by poisoning of a Russian defector in the UK did not arouse Trump to protest. Trump has said he would welcome foreign assistance in his election campaign, as he did in 2016, violating US law. And he has speculated about pardoning Edward Snowden, who sought refuge in Russia (and got it) after publishing American secrets without availing himself of normal channels of dissent or whistle-blower protection.
President Trump’s loyalties are all too clear. They are not to the United States. He has proven far more loyal to Moscow. That’s the message his silence sends.
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