Tag: Russia
A Balkans agenda for the lame duck
We are entering the final stretch before the US election. That means a lame duck period for lower priority parts of the world like the Balkans until January 20. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump is likely to say anything about the region before November 5. Even after Inauguration Day it will be some time before the new administration focuses on the Balkans.
We can guess their views
Harris’ views on the Balkans are unknown. But she has spent a career prosecuting criminals and defending equal rights. That likely tells you something about her attitude toward corruption and ethnonationalism. Trump is a corrupt white supremacist who tried to partition Kosovo while in the White House. If elected, he will no doubt empower Ric Grenell or his doppelganger to try again in Kosovo and Bosnia. Serbia has leverage on Trump. Jared Kushner has been looking for investment opportunities there.
What should the people at the State Department and in the White House do in this lame duck period? They should seek to correct the mistakes of the last three years, which have produced mainly diplomatic failure in the Balkans. The Biden Administration mistakenly focused on creating a statutory Association of Serb Majority Municipalities in Kosovo. In Bosnia, it rightly sought to disempower ethnonationalist politicians, but it succeeded mainly with Bosniaks. Those priorities condemned Biden’s Balkan policies to strategic defeat. They also alienated Kosovars and Bosniaks, America’s best friends in the region.
Here are a few ideas to correct course. Assuming that Harris will be elected, as I fondly hope, these thoughts aim to reduce the sway of ethnic nationalism. They would also increase the functionality of governance in still-fragile Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Some ideas
- Consult with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti on a joint plan to establish beyond doubt his country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This should include an end to Belgrade intimidation of Serbs who join Kosovo security institutions and wider international recognition.
- Adopt as the official US stance conditional support for a nongovernmental Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. The municipalities themselves should form this Association consistent with the Kosovo constitution. The conditions should include Belgrade fulfillment of its obligations under the agreement in which Pristina agreed to the Association.
- Tell Belgrade publicly that it needs to produce accountability for the Serbian government malfeasance of last year. That includes the kidnapping of Kosovo police, rioting against KFOR, and the Banjska terrorist plot.
- Stop the bad-mouthing of Serbian environmentalists who oppose the Rio Tinto lithium plant. Start publicly criticizing corruption and growing autocracy in Belgrade.
- End the Bosnia High Representative’s intervention to reverse the European Court of Human Rights ruling in the Kovacevic case. The ECHR ruling promises a big step in reducing ethnic nationalist control of state institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Develop criminal charges in the US against the leading Serb and Croat advocates (Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic) of ethnonational division in Bosnia.
There are some tall orders in this list. But the failure of three years of misguided US and EU diplomatic efforts suggests a dramatic turn is needed.
The resistance will be strong
Serbia’s President Vucic is committed to the “Serbian world” goal of governing Serbs in neighboring countries. He has succeeded in Montenegro. The government in Podgorica is under Serbia’s thumb. In Bosnia and Kosovo, only de facto partition can deliver success to Serbia. Belgrade will resist all the above moves, as will their proxies in the neighboring countries.
Belgrade is at risk of falling irreversibly under the influence of Russia and China. The US needs to counter that influence with sticks as well as carrots. The carrots only appeasement approach has failed. Here is the result:
The Americans will be far more effective at all of this if the EU and UK will act in tandem. The UK will likely follow a strong US lead. The EU may not follow right away, That makes another task for the lame duck interval: getting Brussels on board.
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This is pandering, not diplomacy
The US and Europe have now teamed up to applaud the mining of lithium–needed mainly for electric vehicle batteries–in Serbia. The enthusiasm is over the top. German Chancellor Scholz was in Belgrade for the July signing of a Serbia/EU “strategic partnership” on sustainable raw materials, battery value chains, and electric vehicles. The US has likewise signed an agreement on US-Serbia strategic cooperation in the field of energy in Serbia.
Brussels and Washington intend these agreements to encourage commercial exploitation of Serbia’s lithium deposits, under a contract with the British-Australian firm, Rio Tinto. Institutional investors (that is mutual funds, banks, pension and hedge funds) control 58% of Rio Tinto. The single biggest shareholder (11% Google AI tells me) is the Aluminum Corporation of China.
Not quite right
That is the first hint that something is not right. Washington and Brussels do not usually support British or Australian firms, or firms whose single largest shareholder is Chinese. But both the EU and US appear to have decided that Serbia’s lithium deposits are a top priority for electric car batteries.
But are they? Here is one picture of known lithium resources around the world:
Serbia’s lithium deposits amount to 1.3% of the global total. The resources are distributed widely around the world, most in the Western Hemisphere. Lithium is a commodity traded in a worldwide market, like oil. Serbia’s production has no great significance in this global picture.
Nor is the future market for lithium a sure thing. Other technologies are in the research and development pipeline. Five or ten years from now lithium is unlikely to be the only economically viable technology.
Why then?
Why then are European and American officials tripping over themselves to encourage the development of the Serbian lithium deposits? Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kasanof has even suggested the lithium project could block the rise of ethnic nationalism in the Balkans. Meanwhile,
Here is a hint of what is really going on: US Ambassador Chris Hill told a debate in Belgrade on political options for the Western Balkans that many of the people protesting against plans to mine lithium in western Serbia support Russia.
Those protests are the most serious opposition movement still extant in Serbia today. Red-baiting (if we can still label Moscow as “red”) the demonstrators aims to undermine their impact. That is not the usual US position on environmental concerns. But the Rio Tinto project is a top priority for President Vucic. We can only imagine why. He has no doubt told the local diplomats that he will greatly appreciate their help in squelching the protests.
Let me be clear: I have no objection in principle to economic cooperation with Serbia, or to environmentally and financially sound production of lithium in Serbia or elsewhere. But I do object to European and American officials trying to squelch environmental and financial concerns to please an increasingly autocratic president.
Appeasement is the policy
The diplomatic pandering is part of a broader effort to appease Serbia, provide it with economic goodies, and convince it to turn westward. Let’s skip whether redbaiting legitimate environmental criticism reflects Western ideals. The bigger issue is whether this approach has any chance of working.
It is notable that in neither the European nor in the American agreements cited above does Serbia undertake to conduct its mining in an environmentally sound or financially transparent way. The State Department made it clear the US wants financial probity. The European agreement does likewise. But Belgrade didn’t commit to it in either agreement.
Serbia has aligned itself militarily and politically with Russia and China since Vucic became President, the recent purchase of French Rafale warplanes notwithstanding. Belgrade has also undertaken repeated efforts to destabilize northern Kosovo and to undermine the independence of Montenegro as well as the territorial integrity of Bosnia. The idea that Belgrade can be convinced to embrace the West is dumb. Vucic will take EU money and American political pressure on his environmental opponents, but neither will make him give up his affection for like-minded autocrats with irredentist ambitions.
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Trump is out of gas but keeps farting
Donald Trump’s performance last Tuesday night in the debate with Kamala Harris was pitiful. He has been griping ever since about the moderators, but most of the country knows the truth. Trump was unable to hold his own while Harris established her credentials as a worthy contestant for the presidency. Whether you agree with her policy proposals or not, she looked, acted, and spoke like a president. He did not.
It isn’t over yet
But there are still more than seven weeks to the election. Battered, Trump will now fight back harder and dirtier than ever. The Republican Party will do everything it can in the battleground states to limit voting by minorities, citizens born in other countries, and younger people. It will try to hinder vote counting in big cities and cast doubt on the outcome in any state that produces only a narrow margin for Harris.
The Democrats are prepared for this onslaught and will counter the Republicans in court, both before and after the election. Both parties seem to be hard at work registering new voters. But just the confusion of claims and counterclaims will create problems, including a media frenzy.
Some of this could work against Trump. Even the Republican governor has said the claims about illegal immigrants eating pet cats and dogs in an Ohio town are untrue:
But Trump and Vance are not saying things like this because they think them true. Vance has admitted he is prepared to “create” stories he thinks represent the interests of his constituents:
What Vance and Trump are trying to do is attract attention and subtract from Harris’ momentum, using racist tropes. That is having some success. Half of America is now thinking about immigration rather than Trump’s felony convictions or Harris’ economic proposals.
Harris is proving wise
Harris did challenge the pets story, but she does not challenge all of Trump’s falsehoods or defend the Biden Administration at every opportunity. According to CNN, he told 33 lies (“false claims”) during the less than 45 minutes he spoke during the debate. It would have been impossible to take them all on. If she had, it would have looked as if he set the agenda, not her.
I regretted that she did not counter his assertion that immigrants are committing a lot of crimes, though she no doubt knows they commit fewer per capita than people born in the US. I also regret that she failed to respond to the first question in the debate: are Americans better off than four years ago? She should have. Unemployment, growth, energy exports and many other parameters are dramatically improved since January 2021.
Harris’ virtues
But Harris is persistent and tireless in claiming to serve the American people. That is what some of us want to hear. We don’t hear it from Trump. He disowns responsibility for any failures, even claiming he did nothing to encourage the January 6 attack on The Capitol that he spent weeks inciting. Trump claims to be the best president ever and that Biden is the worst. He claims he can fix everything and Biden could fix nothing. Anyone even vaguely familiar with the Biden legislative accomplishments compared to Trump’s knows that isn’t true. Harris certainly does.
I attended a Harris fundraiser Saturday here in DC. She seemed to me, at a distance of 150 feet or so, to be genuine and sincere.
She is animated, vigorous, and coherent. I can’t say that about her opponent. Trump played golf a lot while president. He is still doing it during the campaign. He offers little more than tariffs on everything, replacing the Federal civil service with his cronies, and concessions to Putin and other dictators. Trump is out of gas but still farting.
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Hopeful v hopeless: guess who won
Last night’s presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris conformed to expectations. An ill-tempered Trump lied, rambled, and indulged in conspiracy theories. A smiling and bemused Harris projected herself as an agent of change and optimism. She was amiable and hopeful. He was threatening and hopeless. That’s what really counts.
Policy doesn’t count, but it is still worth considering
The economy: advantage Harris
On the economy, Trump promises little more than steep tariffs on everything, which a president can impose without Congressional approval, and extension of the tax cuts passed in 2017 for the (very) rich. Neither proposition should be attractive to 90% of Americans. He continues to insist that other countries will pay the tariffs, but they will also raise prices whenever they can to recoup whatever they pay. In addition, they will retaliate against US exports. So MAGA means higher prices and loss of market share abroad. Little to celebrate there.
Harris is flogging tax breaks for small business, families, and home construction. Not all of what she proposes makes good sense, and she has not said how she will pay for them. But her proposals respond to what most Americans are concerned about. All of what she wants would have to pass in Congress, which means there is at least a chance to get it right. Even if the Democrats were to gain control of both Houses, it would be difficult to hold together their majorities for proposals that don’t make sense.
Immigration: advantage Harris
This is Trump’s strong suit, but he played his hand poorly. He repeatedly claimed that immigrants are increasing the crime rate in the US. He even claimed that crime is down in Venezuela and other countries because all the criminals are being sent to the US. Harris didn’t respond forcefully on these points. I suppose she was wary of championing immigration. But crime is down in the US and it is not down in Venezuela and other migrant-exporting countries.
Harris hit a solid note with her response. She rightfully claimed Trump had blocked a bipartisan immigration bill that would have sharply increased the number of agents on the border. She did not say what a lot of us know: America needs immigrants. The labor market is tight and immigrants are prolific entrepreneurs who found a large number of new, small companies.
Foreign policy: advantage Harris
Trump was at pains to claim that he got NATO countries to ante up and that the world loves him. But America’s allies have been increasing military expenditures at least as fast under Biden. Trump repeated his claim that he would end the Ukraine war by negotiation before he even took office. The only way he could do that is by signaling lack of support for Ukraine. Trump was only able to cite Hungary’s would-be dictator, Viktor Orban, as a leader who appreciates him. Of course Putin, Xi, and Kim are also in that camp, but they are even less to Trump’s credit.
Harris cited Trump’s love affairs with those miscreants, as well as with the Taliban, as evidence of his failure to align the US with its democratic friends and allies. Even more important is that he failed to get anything worthwhile from his dreadful friends. Harris was effective in parrying Trump’s criticism of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which he had negotiated before Biden won the 2020 election.
Next
I expect the polls to show a visible jump for Harris in the next couple of weeks. She demonstrated at the debate a demeanor, temperament, and acuity that contrasted sharply with Trump’s. He looked and played the part of a tired incumbent. His ideas, insofar as he had any, were stale. Taylor Swift got it right. Kamala Harris will be the next President. That will give the Republicans time to end their romance with a crooked flim-flam man.
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A real incursion with an unclear purpose
Ukrainian forces have penetrated upwards of 15 kilometers or so into the Kursk oblast of Russia north of Kharkiv. This is the most serious Ukrainian penetration of Russian territory during the current war. Milbloggers claim the Russians are trying to counter the incursion with new recruits. They will likely also need to weaken defenses somewhere along the more or less 600-mile front to respond inKursksion.
The balance is shifting
The past year of fighting has seen little change overall. The Russians have gained marginally, especially in the east. They have recently been pushed back from Kharkiv (though not all the way to the border), where they had made some progress in the spring. US failure to keep up the supply of weapons and ammunition last winter damaged Ukrainian morale and defensive capabilities. So too did European hesitancy about economic aid.
Now that economic aid and military supplies are flowing once again, Ukrainian morale and capability are on the mend. F16s are arriving. Better air defense and longer-range artillery and missiles will enhance Ukrainian capabilities. The Kursk incursion will no doubt raise morale further, if it is successful.
Russia’s supplies of stockpiled weapons are running low, but North Korea and Iran are providing missiles and drones. The Russian army has manpower issues, but arguably less serious than those of Ukraine. Still, Vladimir Vladimirovich is not sounding confident, or offering to help the Kursk Governor:
Still, the objective is unclear
Ukraine’s military objective is still unclear. Kyiv has said nothing. A rail line important to supplying Russian troops farther south? The Kursk nuclear power plant? Capture of soldiers or territory that could be traded for Ukrainian territory or soldiers? Encirclement of the Russian units to the south that had fought their way close to Kharkiv? Forcing the Russians to weaken offensive and defensive operations farther south? Encouraging international supporters to hasten arms supplies? Encouraging Putin’s opponents in Moscow and across the Russian Federation to confront him? It still seems to be anyone’s guess.
Ukraine has committed elements of four experienced brigades to the effort, which suggests this is not merely a cross-border raid. It remains to be seen, however, whether the Ukrainians will seek to hold the territory they take. That would be a daunting task, assuming the population is still loyal to Moscow. The population in present-day Kursk oblast overwhelmingly identifies as Russian, not Ukrainian.
War is not math
War, unlike mathematics, has uncertain outcomes, brought about in unexpected ways. The Ukrainians have rolled their dice. We’ll have to wait and see what the result is.
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Read this to not be surprised
A few challenges today to the accepted wisdom:
- Iran and its allies will not necessarily attack Israel with missiles and drones.
- Whatever they do may not come soon.
- The prisoner exchange with Russia was a good thing, but it will have bad consequences.
- The American election outcome isn’t as uncertain as the current polling suggests.
The impending Iranian attack may not be what you think
I have no inside information, but I won’t be surprised if Iran chooses something other than an air raid to attack Israel. While such a raid could do a lot of damage if it gets past Israeli defenses, it would not be a mirror image of the Israeli attack that killed Ismail Haniyeh. It would also likely cause a lot of civilian casualties, including among the 18% of Israel’s population that is Muslim.
The Iranians may instead try to kill a Israeli high-ranking target. Assassinating a negotiator or general in Jerusalem would create real fear among Israelis. But it would not give much reason for the US to join in a strike against Iran, which is what Prime Minister Netanyahu wants.
In the meanwhile, the Iranians are enjoying the massive and expensive deployment of American assets as well as the mobilization strain on the Israelis. Without striking, Tehran is forcing its enemies to run up their bills and exhaust their soldiers and sailors. The longer Iran waits, the higher the costs.
Exchanging prisoners creates a moral hazard
The exchange of prisoners last week between Russia and various Western states has to be counted a good thing. It freed a lot of innocent people.
But it also freed some dreadful criminals, including a Russian assassin. That will have the unfortunate effect of encouraging President Putin to take more hostages that he can exchange for still more Russian miscreants. I’ve been to Moscow three times (1974, 1994, and 2014), so twice when it was the capital of the Soviet Union. I would not go again now. While the risk to any individual American might be small, Putin’s Russia is more likely to arbitrarily arrest Americans than the Soviets.
Russia isn’t the only country I would hesitate to visit these days. China also poses much greater risks than in the past. Iran specializes in incarcerating mainly Iranian Americans. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Egypt, and Mozambique also hold Americans for less than good reasons. Something like 40 Americans are still unjustly held abroad, despite significant successes.
It goes without saying that Americans traveling abroad should take care to follow the local laws. But even if you do, there is an increasing likelihood of unjust detention. I wouldn’t visit Russia, China, or Iran today without some guarantees, which would not be easy to get. I even hesitate to go to Serbia, which I visited more than a few times during the Milosevic regime. But President Vucic is a student of President Putin. And Vucic knows who I am and what I write.
Harris is winning
The past two weeks have exhibited a remarkable outpouring of pro-Harris sentiment in the American electorate. She is beating Trump in national polls, and has drawn even in battleground states. The horse race isn’t over until November, but if she can keep rising in the polls, Trump is done.
I expect Harris to own this month. She will pick a good vice presidential candidate, likely today. All six candidates are far more experienced and more moderate than J.D. Vance, Trump’s big mistake. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 in Chicago will display a unified and mobilized party determined to win, even if the risk of unruly pro-Palestinian demonstrations is real.
A lot depends on whether the economy is landing hard or soft from the COVID-19 recovery. But I am still hoping the Fed will get it somewhere near right, despite yesterday’s big stock market retreat.
The outcome of an American election is happily unpredictable. But Harris can win. I’ll do my best to try to make that come true. I’m inclined to relocate to Atlanta, where I have a house down the street from my older son’s family, for much of October. I’ll volunteer to get the vote out and ensure proper election administration. I vote in DC, not Georgia, but more than 90% of DC will vote for Harris. Georgia is one of the battlegrounds. That’s where I would like to be.
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