Tag: sanctions
Stevenson’s army, February 21
SecState Pompeo announces start of violence reduction week leading to a Taliban deal.
WSJ reports more cooperation on Iran sanctions.
Both NYT and WaPo report DNI was fired after Trump learned his office had told House Intelligence Committee that Russia is already interfering in US 2020 elections in support of Trump.
Big study of nonvoters shows they mirror the voting population.
Lawfare says secret international agreements are still not being reported as required by law.
In further proof of my argument that some people die only in the Times, which reports deaths of interesting people, here’s the story about the man who invented computer cutting and pasting.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
A non-election
Iran’s majles (parliament) elections are tomorrow. They are not free or fair, despite the extraordinary number of candidates, since the Guardian Council gets to determine who runs. It has nixed something like 60% of the candidates, most of them relative moderates or reformists. Even those prevented from running are people loyal to the Islamic Republic. None are revolutionaries, only reformers. Serious opponents of the regime are more likely to be found in the streets and in their own homes.
The outcome of the election is pre-determined: unlike 2016, conservatives will be in the majority. Supreme Leader Khamenei has been anxious to avoid another de facto vote against him, so he has stacked the deck. Any presence of reformers in the new majles will be a defeat for him. Turnout will be more interesting to watch than results. It can be hard to fake. It was around 60% the last time around. If it comes in under 50% or so, it should be interpreted as a vote of no-confidence.
It would be a mistake however to conclude even then that the regime is necessarily about to crumble, collapse, or crack. There is no sign of dissent in the security forces, who have been amply deployed to clamp down on any election-day disturbances. Protests have adopted anti-regime slogans, but they remain mostly focused on economic issues, made severe in part by US re-imposition of sanctions.
That and the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have hardened the regime significantly. The conservatives who argued that the US couldn’t be trusted to implement the nuclear deal have been proven correct. Khamenei has tried to rally Iranians around a flag of resistance. The US assassination of Qasem Soleimani has made that easier. There has been no serious difficulty restricting the candidates. The Supreme Leader will emerge from these elections with a far more compliant and conservative majles, and good prospects for conservatives in next year’s presidential election. For details on the personalities and geography involved, see this primer.
It is beyond me how this hardening of the Iranian regime serves US interests. It incentivizes Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, for which financing will always be available. Even a collapse of the regime would pose enormous difficulties for Washington, as Iran is a multiethnic state whose Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Balochis and others would likely seek at least the self-governance they have been denied in the Islamic Republic, if not outright independence or union with neighboring states. Iran is a country of more than 80 million people. The results could be catastrophic.
It’s a non-election, but there should be no joy in that.
Peace Picks | February 10 – 14
Forging the Army’s Future | February 10, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for the latest event in its Commanders Series, “Forging the Army’s Future,” a public conversation with General John M. Murray, Commanding General of United States Army Futures Command. The event will take place on Monday, February 10, 2020 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. 2018 also saw the activation of Army Futures Command, designed to prepare today for military challenges decades in the future. The Army identified six key areas for modernization and assigned eight Cross-Functional Teams to see each to fruition. These modernization priorities are designed to support Multi-Domain Operations, the Army’s new concept for future combat across the spectrum of conflict.
Yet one of these priorities–the Next Generation Combat Vehicle–suffered a setback when the Army canceled its solicitation for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle prototypes in January 2020. Does the cancellation signal early problems or does it demonstrate the success of the high ambitions and learning model that undergirds Army Futures Command? The answer to these questions will depend in large part on the Army’s ability to prioritize and deliver on its ambitious goals.
As the Commanding General of Army Futures Command, General Murray will join us to discuss how Army Futures Command is reinventing innovation in the Army. This conversation will focus on how the Army identifies priority capabilities for this new era of great-power competition, and how it plans to continue doing so for generations to come.
Rohingya– Beyond the Crisis Narrative: Statelessness and the Implications for Myanmar and Bangladesh | February 10, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Council of American Overseas Research Centers | Register Here
Speakers
Mabrur Ahmed is the Founder and Director of Restless Beings, an International Human Rights organization based in London
Rahima Begum is an artist, researcher and Founding Director of the international human rights organisation, Restless Beings
Shireen Huq is a co-founder of Naripokkho, an organization focusing on women’s rights in Bangladesh
Ali Riaz is a Bangladeshi American political scientist and writer. He is a Distinguished Professor at Illinois State University
Samira Siddique is a PhD student in the Energy and Resources Group and Researcher at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley
Prashanta Tripura is an academic anthropologist turned development professional, who is currently Project Director- Aparajita: Political Empowerment of Women at HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation in Bangladesh
Yasmin Ullah is a Rohingya refugee born in Northern Rakhine state of Myanmar. She currently serves as the President of Rohingya Human Rights Network, a non-profit group advocating to raise public awareness of the human rights violations against Rohingya people
Sanchita Saxena (Moderator) is the Executive Director of the Institute for South Asia Studies at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Subir and Malini Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies under the Institute
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order | February 10, 2020| 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between.
Speakers
Alexandra Dienes, Research Associate, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Vasly Filipchuk, Senior Adviser, International Centre for Policy Studies
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Cooperation
Yulia Nikitina, Associate Professor, World Politics and Research Fellow, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Paul Schwartz (Moderator), Research Analyst, CAN
Jeffrey Mankoff (Discussant), Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Documentary Film Screening: “On Her Shoulders” | February 11, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:35 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center, in association with the Embassy of the Czech Republic, are pleased to present the award-winning documentary On Her Shoulders (2018, 94 mins, English subtitles) about the life of Nadia Murad, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize for her “efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”
Directed by Alexandria Bombach, the film follows the life and struggle of Murad, a Yazidi woman who was among the 7,000 women and children captured by ISIS in the summer of 2014, and forced to become sex slaves and child soldiers. After surviving the genocide of Yazidis in Northern Iraq, Murad becomes a tireless activist, alerting the world to the massacres and kidnappings in her homeland.
The film is programmed in parallel with the exhibit Speaking Across Mountains: Kurdish Artists in Dialogue and as part of the annual One World International Human Rights Documentary Film Festival held in Prague, one of the largest human rights film festivals in the world.
Tea and baklava will be served at the beginning of the event.
Sanctions Against Russia: Successes, Failures, and Future Prospects | February 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014, international sanctions have been a key instrument in exerting pressure on the Russian government to end the conflict. However, the current sanctions regime is plagued by a number of flaws and is in need of improvement. Vasyl Filipchuk and Anastacia Galouchka will analyze current sanctions, future prospects, and how the application of sanctions against Russia can be improved going forward in the context of their new report. The Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine H.E. Juris Poikans will provide opening remarks.
Speakers
Vasyl Filipchuk, Senior Advisor, International Centre for Policy Studies
Anastacia Galouchka, Expert on Foreign Policy and International Law, International Centre for Policy Studies
Ambassador Juris Poikans, Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine
Reflections on Civil – Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, and Paradoxes | February 11, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 8:30 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Join the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy for the 2020 Conference on Civil-Military Relations. See the schedule online.
This conference will:
- educate the audience on the history of civil-military relations, particularly the legacies of leadership, cultural change, and policy shifts during wartime
- present various dimensions of current civil-military relations debates
- engage the audience on questions of who serves, who is expected to serve, and who should serve in U.S. defense and national security, to include debates on the concepts of national service and the ethos of service
- continue to raise questions of leadership, ethics, and morals within military and civilian command and national service more broadly
Theater of War Productions will return for this conference for a performance of Theater of War: Scenes from Sophocles’ “Philoctetes”. Theater of War is an innovative public health project that presents readings of ancient Greek plays as a catalyst for town hall discussions about the challenges faced by service members, veterans, and their caregivers and families today. The performance of Sophocles’ Philoctetes will be followed by community panelist remarks and a facilitated town hall discussion.
Agenda:
11:00am – 12:00pm Arrivals & Lunch
12:00pm Opening Remarks | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
12:20pm Panel 1 | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Moderated by Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Peter Feaver, Duke University
Alice Hunt Friend, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Caitlin Talmadge, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
1:40pm Panel 2 | Civil-Military Relations Beyond the United States
Moderated by Nick Schifrin, PBS NewsHour
Risa Brooks, Marquette University
Eric Heginbotham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sameer Lalwani, Stimson Center
Daniel Marston, Johns Hopkins SAIS
3:00pm Panel 3 | The Future of National Service
Moderated by Aaron Mehta, Defense News
Jud Crane, National Commission on National, Military, and Public Service
Jason Dempsey, Center for a New American Security
Heidi Urben, U.S. Army
4:10pm Closing Remarks | Managing Paradoxes of American Civil-Military Relations Peter Feaver, Duke University
5:00pm Scenes from Sophocles’ Philoctetes By Theater of War Productions Town Hall Discussion to Follow Off-the-Record
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Live Podcast Recording with War on the Rocks
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Loren DeJonge Schulman, Center for a New American Security
Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After Trump: Defining a Progressive U.S. Policy for the Middle East | February 12, 2020 | 8:30 AM – 11:00 PM | The Century Foundation | Register Here
Approaching the brink of war with Iran in early 2020 has highlighted the risks of not pursuing a progressive U.S. policy approach to the Middle East. This event seeks to set forth a sustainable alternative U.S. foreign policy.
We will examine the animating principles and resulting policies of a more progressive approach for the Middle East. Progressive Middle East policy remains a contested concept among both policymakers and the American public: to some, it means an end to overly militarized policies and reducing U.S. commitments to avoid war; to others, it means greater U.S. investments in solving overseas conflicts, acting to prevent atrocities, and advancing human rights. Still others define it in terms of rethinking U.S. partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
A light breakfast will be served at 8:30 AM followed by keynote remarks beginning at 9:00 AM and an expert panel.
Keynote Speakers:
Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT) s the junior United States senator for Connecticut.
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) represents California’s 17th Congressional District, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, and is serving in his second term.
Introductory Remarks:
Mark Zuckerman, president at The Century Foundation
Panelists:
Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow at The Century Foundation
Dina Esfandiary, fellow at The Century Foundation
Sarah Margon, director of U.S. foreign policy at the Open Society Foundations
Melissa Dalton, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond| February 12, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Janet Lewis is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Her research examines why and how rebel groups form, with a focus on why many groups fail in the early stages, and what ethnicity has to do with it. Her book on these issues, “How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond,” will be published with Cambridge University Press in 2020. Her other projects seek to understand how news and beliefs travel through word-of-mouth networks in rural communities, and how states administer and monitor their peripheral regions.
She received a Ph.D., M.A. in Government from Harvard University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University.
George F. Kennan and the Establishment of the State of Israel | February 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, public sympathy grew in the United States for the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine. Yet in a series of memos in 1947 and 1948, George F. Kennan articulated a consensus view among U.S. diplomatic and military leadership that such a state could usher in Soviet influence in the Middle East, undermine access to oil resources in the Arab states and therefore undermine U.S. national interests in the Middle East and around the world. In this talk, Jeffrey Herf will examine Kennan’s memos, the context of their emergence, and their consequences for U.S. foreign policy at the dawn of the Cold War and beyond.
Speaker
Jeffrey Herf, Fellow, Distinguished University Professor, Department of History, University of Maryland, College Park
A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer | February 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nobel Peace Prize winner and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled a new political philosophy for his country: “medemer,” an Amharic word which literally translates as “addition,” or “coming together.” But what are the key principles of medemer, and how can they be applied both domestically and abroad? How does medemer link with the existing Ethiopian political and social structure? And amid ongoing change and volatility, with highly anticipated elections looming, is medemer a path to sustained reform, or merely a political slogan?
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join USIP and a distinguished panel that includes representatives of the Office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a look at the questions, possibilities, and problems offered by medemer. Join the conversation with #AChangingEthiopia.
Speakers
Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ambassaador to the U.S., Ethiopia
Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History and Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Oberlin College
Aly Verjee (moderator), Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
Economic sanctions work, but…
The continued use of US economic sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and Cuba was the focus for a Brookings panel, Economic Sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. foreign policy on January 27. Moderated by James Goldgeier, Robert Bosch Senior Visiting Fellow, the panel included Suzanne Maloney, Senior Fellow Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Jung H. Pak, Senior Fellow Center for East Asia Policy Studies, and Ted Piccone, Nonresident Senior Fellow Security and Strategy.
Four Case Studies
Maloney believes the US uses sanctions in tandem with diplomacy with Iran, but usually is not joined by others. Two changes have occurred that altered the effectiveness of sanctions on Iran:
- After the 9/11 attacks, US sanctions became more targeted and were no longer only trade sanctions.
- The energy market has shifted with increased production outside the Persian Gulf.
US sanctions have not achieved their political goal of a dramatic reversal of core Iranian policy, but rather have only impacted the economy. Maloney argues that economic sanctions are effective in countries that already have dysfunctional economies, allowing the sanctions to compound structural problems.
Pak, an expert on North Korea, claims that the US only started piling on sanctions on North Korea since 2016, focused on sectors like seafood, iron, oil. The targeted sanctions of 2005 on Banco Delta Asia, which was helping facilitate North Korean illicit financing measures, led to serious economic problems. This sanction signaled to other banks and investment funds that doing business with North Korea was risky.
Piccone emphasizes that Cuba is an example of ineffective US sanctions, since they did not achieve their specified target of dislodging the Communist regime and removing Castro from power even if they were successful in stifling the economy. The US failed with Cuba sanctions to gain multilateral support. Due to the devastated economy, Cubans suffered and migrated: over 10% of the Cuban population lives outside Cuba, with the majority residing in the US.
Piccone contrasts Cuba sanctions with Venezuela, where the US shifted from targeted sanctions to sectoral ones, particularly on oil and gas. These sanctions amplified many of Venezuela’s existing economic problems. Sanctions effectiveness is closely tied to how dependent a country is on the US.
All panelists emphasized that even economically ‘successful’ sanctions can still be rendered ineffective if the political goals behind the sanctions are not realized.
Credibility is important
Maloney underlines the importance of sustaining credibility with regards to sanctions. Even before the May 2019 JCPOA withdrawal, Iran felt that the US was not upholding its side of the deal, as there continued to be new sanctions placed on the country.
All the panelists noted how muddled sanctions can be when the US makes exceptions for a program like the JCPOA, but maintains other sanctions related to support for terrorism and human rights violations. Maloney suggests that these remaining sanctions deter international banks and investors and reduce investment in Iran. The US withdrawal from the agreement undermined US credibility. Piccone adds that the inconsistencies between US administrations only further confuse the aims of sanctions, particularly in the case of Cuba.
Peace Picks | January 27- 31
Demolishing Democracy: How Annexationism is Bulldozing Israeli Institutions| January 27, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Around the world today, peoples are contending with the “democratic recession” and the rise of illiberalism. In Israel, these phenomena are inextricably linked to and driven by the occupation, settlements, and the quest for annexation.
At the outset of 2020, Israeli annexationists — egged on by fellow travelers in the Trump Administration and the U.S. Jewish and Evangelical communities — appear to be on the cusp of achieving their goal of formal annexation of the West Bank by Israel. The current situation did not arise overnight. Rather, it is the result of a decades-long drive to transform the territories occupied by Israel in the 1967 War into an integral part of sovereign Israel. This drive has inflicted serious damage on the institutions that comprise and are supposed to defend Israeli democracy.
Today, Israel’s democratic institutions are under ever-growing threat, including attacks and delegitimization from Israeli political leaders. With a final push to formal annexation looming, the integrity and viability of these institutions – and with them, the future of Israeli democracy – hang in the balance.
At this critical juncture, Yehuda and Debra will discuss how this happened, what it would take to change course, and what all of this means for Israel’s future and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers
Yehuda Shaul served in the IDF from 2001-2004 in the West Bank. He founded Breaking the Silence in 2004 with a group of fellow veterans.
Debra Shushan Director of Government Affairs at J Street.
Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East | January 27, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM | Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting U.S. national security interests in jeopardy.
Our expert panel will break down the variables surrounding this topic.
Speakers:
Joel Rubin: Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign
Bassima Alghussein: CEO, Alghussein Global Strategies, Former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor
Jeff Stacey: Contributor to the New York Times
Edward P. Joseph: Broadcast and print commentator, US Foreign Policy Professional, U.S. Veteran
Economic Sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. Foreign Policy | January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the nearly two decades since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has expanded its use of economic sanctions to address a broad range of national security and foreign policy objectives. Through the innovative use of financial penalties and greater integration in the global banking system, sanctions have become the go-to tool of economic warfare. They are widely applicable, scalable, and can be comprehensive or targeted. Yet, with Washington’s increasing reliance on these policy instruments, serious questions remain about their long-term effectiveness and their potential to produce unintended consequences.
For sanctions to achieve strategic objectives they must be adapted to a new era of geopolitical competition and coordinated with other forms of diplomacy. To help make sense of the design, implementation, and implications of sanctions, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a panel of experts with a combined background in the use of sanctions in Latin America, Europe, North Korea, and the Middle East.
Bruce Jones, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program, will kick off the event with introductory remarks. He will be followed by a panel discussion with Brookings Senior Fellows Suzanne Maloney, Jung Pak, Ted Piccone, and Tom Wright, moderated by Jim Goldgeier, Robert Bosch senior visiting fellow. The session will conclude with questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Bruce Jones Vice President and Director at Brookings Institute
Suzanne Maloney Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak Senior Fellow at the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at Brookings Institute
On the Horizon: What to Expect in 2020 Wilson Center Experts Weigh In| January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In a world marked by complexity, volatility, and a din of competing agendas, the Wilson Center is the nation’s indispensable resource for decoding today’s most pressing foreign policy challenges. Leveraging its global expertise and perspective, award-winning scholarship and analysis, and a fiercely nonpartisan spirit, the Center informs actionable ideas for policymakers across the political spectrum.
Join Wilson Center experts for a global roundup of what’s on the horizon in 2020—from Russia, to Asia, to the ongoing regional trade negotiations—and what economic, political, and security trends are emerging regionally and throughout the world.
Speakers:
Jane Harman Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Abraham Denmark Director, Asia Program
James Dickmeyer Acting Director, The Canada Institute
Jean H. Lee Director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy
Robert S. Litwak Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Michael Morrow Senior Diplomatic Fellow
William E. Pomeranz Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
Matthew Rojansky Director, Kennan Institute
Michael Sfraga Director, Global Risk and Resilience Program and Director, Polar Institute
Duncan Wood Director, Mexico Institute
Russia in the Middle East at a Time of Growing Tensions: A View from Israel | January 28, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM | Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
As the targeted killing of Qassem Suleimani is reshaping power alignments in the Middle East, Russia is determined not to let its influence in the region weaken. From Russian weapons deliveries to Turkey and Iran, to the civilian nuclear reactor the Kremlin is helping Egypt build, to Vladimir Putin’s recent surprise visit to Syria: all of these are meant to send a message of the Kremlin’s intention to remain a player in the region. What are Russia’s strategic objectives in this moment of change? Is Russia looking to fill the power vacuum left by a weakening Iran? Two top Israeli analysts offer their perspectives.
Speakers
Major General (Res.) Amos Gilead Executive Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), IDC Herzliya; Chairman of the IPS Annual Herzliya Conference Series
Ksenia Svetlova Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya
Middle East in 2020: A Challenge for World Peace? | January 29, 2020 | 11:00 PM – 12:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Please join us for a timely panel to assess the recent security developments in the Middle East and implications for the world.
Speakers
Moderator, Isil Acehan Visiting Professor, George Mason University
Elena Pokalova Chair, College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University
James Carafano Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, E.W. Richardson Fellow, Heritage Foundation
The Future of Multilateral Peacebuilding | January 29, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In an era of rapid technological change and fraying traditional alliances, the international order that has overseen one of the most peaceful periods in human history is facing unprecedented challenges. While member states grapple with the utility and relevance of the United Nations in the 21st century, global fragility, conflict, and violence continue to escalate—exacting an enormous human toll. The imperative for collective global action to resolve the world’s most intractable conflicts has never been greater.
In light of these trends, it’s critical that the community of actors committed to global peace and security take stock of the successes, challenges, and innovations in multilateral conflict prevention, mediation, and peacebuilding.
Join USIP, The Stimson Center, Alliance for Peacebuilding, and the United Nations Association of the National Capital Area for a timely discussion on the future of the multilateral system and the potential for practical, innovative reform with U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, the highest-ranking American currently serving at the United Nations and the first woman to hold the position. As a precursor to the U.N.’s 75th anniversary in 2020, this event will consider how the U.N. has modernized its conflict prevention and management resources to address the changing nature of conflict; how reforms of the U.N.’s political and peacebuilding architecture have improved its effectiveness, as well as what steps are still needed; and what practical actions U.S. and international policymakers can take to support more durable multilateral peacebuilding efforts. Join the conversation with #DiCarloUSIP.
Speakers
Honorable Nancy Lindborg President and CEO U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, United Nations
Ms. Victoria Holt Vice President, Stimson Center
Ambassador Jonathan Moore Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Ambassador Lynn Pascoe Board Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area; former UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs
Ms. Uzra Zeya President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Ambassador George Moose Vice Chairman of the Board, U.S. Institute of Peace; Advisory Council Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Different Ways, Same Goal | January 31, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Stimson Center | Register Here
The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula faces diverse challenges, as the US and North Korea are driven by their own strategic goals and perspectives on how to achieve them. Further complicating this issue are the different interpretations and policy solutions by South Korean and US experts. In this time of diplomatic impasse, join experts from the Stimson Center and Korea Nuclear Policy Society for this timely discussion on how to move forward in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
Speakers
Jenny Town Stimson Fellow and the Managing Editor of Stimson’s 38 North
Sang Hyun Lee Senior Researcher at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, and serves as President of the Korea Nuclear Policy Society (KNPS).
Yong-Sup Han Former Vice President and Professor of the Korea National Defense University and a former director of the Research Institute of National Security Affairs.
Il Soon Hwang Chair Professor of Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) and an Emeritus Professor in the School of Energy Systems Engineering at Seoul National University.
Clint Work Stimson Fellow, jointly appointed to its Security for a New Century program and 38 North
Humanitarian Aid to Venezuela: The Need for a Global Response | January 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Compared to other countries in crisis such as Syria, South Sudan, and Myanmar, Venezuela receives significantly less humanitarian aid from the international community. Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis is yet to be a significant donor priority, despite levels of displacement that rival Syria’s (currently more than 15 percent of Venezuela’s entire population), and disease and hunger levels comparable to those found in sub-Saharan Africa.
This event will feature a high level keynote speech (to be announced). Following the keynote, a panel of CSIS experts will discuss the importance of humanitarian assistance from multiple angles, including the mitigation of destabilizing factors in the region, addressing increasing flows of refugees and forced migrants to other countries, the health implications of this ongoing crisis on the population, and the steps the international community can take to assist Venezuela.
Speakers
Moises Rendon Director, the Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow in the Americas Program
Katherine Bliss Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
Erol Yayboke Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development
Jacob Kurtzer Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Stevenson’s army, January 15
Although Wolf Blitzer and fellow moderators devoted the first hour of the Democratic presidential candidate debate to foreign policy, political experts at a CFR panel I attended Tuesday said foreign policy hardly ever matters in US elections unless there is an active shooting war with significant American casualties. Even trade isn’t making a difference with voters these days, they said. Most interesting to me was Charlie Cook’s observation that unless Biden is the clear leader after Iowa and NH, Mike Bloomberg is likely to shoot to the front on Super Tuesday and stands a good chance of winning the nomination even in a brokered convention.
Sen. Kaine [D-Va] seems to have the votes for a war powers restriction on President Trump regarding Iran. The Hill has the best story of the successful negotiations with Republicans, but the parliamentary snafu that postpones debate until next week.
Washington Examiner has a story based on SAIS prof Jim Mann’s new book about the Cheney-Powell feud over foreign policy in the Bush 43 administration.
Fred Kaplan dissects administration Iran policy, sees regime change as a delusion.
A CFR writer says Huawei blacklist may backfire.
Vox disputes Trump claim about Saudi contributions to US military.
WSJ says US threatens cut in military aid to Iraq if US troops are forced to leave.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
