Tag: sanctions
Stevenson’s army, October 8
– WaPo says Ukraine admits hitting Russian bridge to Crimea.
– Biden order tightens rules on drone strikes.
– Another order tries to limit Chinese access to US semiconductors.
– Also new sanctions on North Korea.
– And there’s now an official Arctic Strategy.
– Commerce has draft rule for new category of bad guys — Foreign Adversaries.
– New Yorker reviews new books on CIA with great headline, Has CIA done more harm than good?
-Fred Kaplan discusses nuclear options.
– UNC prof reminds that Hitler gained power legally.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 11
– Costa Rica is suffering from a ransomware attack.
– FP says Marcos is no Duterte on foreign policy
– Politico reports US arms advice to Taiwan.
– David Ignatius sees peace progress in Armenia.
– DNI testified in open session.
– GOP candidates fight over China.
– EU can’t get Hungary to agree on sanctions.
– NYT notes Russia has captured most of east.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 6
-Scotusblog has the best analysis I’ve seen about the Supreme Court leak: look at the bylines and what happened before.
– Votes on a non-binding motion to instruct have no legal force or effect, but the supermajority vote on Iran puts a new deal in jeopardy.
– NYT show what the war looks like to Russians.
– Nicaragua wants to connect with US.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 23
[The magnificent “Merchant of Venice” ends its run at STC tomorrow.]
– An issue that may come up in next week’s discussion of the Courts is the Chevron Doctrine and delegation of powers to the bureaucracy. See this CRS report.
– Moldova worries about Russian threats
– Cornell prof says sanctions won’t stop the Ukraine war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Russians are moving the goal posts
Polina Ivanova (@polinaivanovva), FT’s Russia correspondent, summarized the Russian military briefing today on Twitter:
Russia’s military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a ‘second phase’. Here’s a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we’re at. (relaying their words, pls don’t shoot msnger). It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.
Over a month of war, Russia has knocked out most of Ukraine’s military capacities, the generals claimed, so can now move on to next phase, which will only be focused on the east, which could involve heavy bombardment. Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said – these are not setbacks in other words, it’s all part of the plan.
And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/Luhansk made territorial gains in the east. Numerous statements made about not targeting civilian infrastructure, avoiding civilian casualties. Defence ministry briefing also shared a new official figure for the number of Russian soldiers killed, the second statement by Russian side during the course of this war. Said 1,351 were killed – figure is far below Ukrainian and international estimates.
The link she provided for the Russians own account does not work for me, so I am not citing it.
That would have made sense
The strategy the Russian briefing provided would have made sense. It was more or less what I expected them to do: focus on the south and east, but threaten Kyiv as a diversionary tactic. But it is not what they did. They failed to knock out most of Ukraine’s military capacity and tried to take Kharkiv and Kyiv, in addition to Kherson and Mariupol in the south. They are now restating their military objectives to align better with what they think they might achieve.
Good news for the Ukrainians
If this briefing betokens an end to the sieges of Kiev and Kharkiv, it is good news for the Ukraianians. Even if the Kremlin continues its long-range bombardment of those cities, how hard will its ill-provisioned soldiers fight after learning that their efforts are diversionary? The Russian briefing is confirmation that Ukraine has successfully defended its capital and its second largest city. That would be cause for celebration if its third largest, Odesa, were not still at risk.
The fight in the south is still ferocious
So far, the Ukrainian defense has blocked the Russian westward advanced towards Ukraine’s third largest city and vital port. The Russians have focused much of their bombardment on Mariupol, which sits on the route from the areas Moscow already controls in the east and Crimea. There won’t be much of Mariupol left once the Russians either succeed or fail, but for now it is holding on. That’s important. There can be no Russian claim of victory if they don’t get a land route to Crimea (in addition to the bridge they have already built over the Kerch Strait from mainland Russia).
But it’s not over until the puffy guy sings
Putin will continue to aim for something he can call success. He’ll not only want the land route to Crimea but also recognition (or at least acceptance) of the “independence” of Donestk and Luhansk as well Ukrainian “neutrality.” The Ukrainians don’t want to do any of that. Nor do they seem to be aiming to throw the Russians out of Crimea and Donbas, but they’ll want to keep that option open for the future. If the West is willing to maintain its punishing sanctions, those hopes might be justified.
Putin is facing a difficult choice. He can continue the bombardment of Kyiv and Kharkiv as well as the brutal southern campaign, hoping for a breakthrough to Odesa. Or he can try to negotiate a ceasefire in place that would enable him to resupply and refresh his forces. This war won’t be over until we hear from him. The Russians are moving the goal posts, but we don’t yet know how far.
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Stevenson’s army, March 20
– WaPo says the war is headed to stalemate.
– NYT reports administration debates over escalation.
– Kori Schake analyzes Russian incompetence.
– WSJ believes house arrest for Russian intelligence head.
– WSJnotes Russian dependence on imports.
– NYT hears from academics on dangers to US democracy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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