Tag: sanctions
Stevenson’s army, March 14
– Talks and fighting over Ukraine.
– WSJ says US won’t exempt Russia from sanctions to save Iran deal.
– Various sources say Russia has asked China for military aid.
– NYT assesses how the war might end.
– WaPO reports return of earmarks.
– SAIS & WIlson Center have upcoming event on Ukraine & the Balkans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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This is how bad things could get
Russia is expanding its bombing in Ukraine to the west and deploying its artillery for intensified barrages on Kyiv. Poland is reaching the limits of its capacity to take in refugees. So are other near neighbors. Moscow is accusing the US of supporting biological and chemical warfare research in Ukraine. Russian forces have already taken control of several nuclear power plants. Moscow has also thrown a monkey wrench into negotiations on re-entry of the US into the Iran nuclear deal.
How bad could things get?
Pretty bad. Here are some guesses:
- The Russians could lay siege to Kyiv and obliterate its governing institutions, displacing many of those who remain of its 2.9 million pre-war population.
- They could also destroy what remains of Ukraine’s air force and its ability to operate. That is presumaby the purpose of their attacks on airfields in the west.
- Poland could limit the intake of refugees, forcing many to remain displaced and vulnerable inside Ukraine.
- Russia often accuses its adversaries of doing things it intends to do. Mocow’s obviously false accusations about biological and chemical weapons may presage Moscow’s use of them.
- Russian forces have already risked disaster in occupying nuclear power plants. Their continued operation depends on Ukrainians and electricity supplies that are at risk. A meltdown like the one at Chernobyl in 1986 would be far more catastrophic under current conditions.
- Moscow may de facto scupper the nuclear deal and try to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. That would allow Tehran to proceed with enrichment and nuclear weapons research.
- Putin is using the war in Ukraine to impose a dictatorial regime inside Russia, making dissent and protest ever more difficult.
All the while, Russia will continue to attack population centers, medical facilities, and schools throughout Ukraine. This “Grozny” strategy is a war crime, but then so is the war of aggression Moscow launched without provocation.
Sanctions aren’t likely to work quickly
The NATO Alliance meanwhile continues sitting on its military hands while Russia crosses multiple red lines. The EU and US are imposing more sanctions on trade and investment, but those rarely if ever change an aggressor’s mind quickly. You are far more likely to get what you want from them when you negotiate lifting them rather than when you impose them. The day when that might be possible is far off.
Military responses have been ruled out
President Biden has so far prioritized prevention of a wider war. He has repeatedly emphasized that Americans will not fight in Ukraine. The Pentagon has apparently blocked transfer of military aircraft from Poland to Ukraine on grounds that might cause Russia to attack Poland and trigger NATO’s mutual defense commitment. The US can’t send the best air defense systems because they require trained personnel that Ukraine doesn’t have and can’t produce in short order.
The Americans and other NATO allies are sending massive arms shipments to the Ukrainians, whose commitment to fighting for themselves should not be doubted. But it may not suffice. Ultimately, Russia has resources, technology, manpower, and immorality that Ukraine cannot equal. We are all likely to suffer the consequences.
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Stevenson’s army, March 10
– NYT has more on why US rejected Polish offer of MiGs.
– AP reports from Warsaw on the issue.
-Atlantic Council has good analysis of risks of various options of aid to Ukraine, but note that co-author Barry Pavel was co-signer of letter urging “limited no fly zone”.
– Fred Kaplan outlines a possible deal to end the fighting. If only…
-WaPo notes that Putin isn’t so isolated.
– A writer warns of the problems of supporting a Ukrainian insurgency.
This was mentioned in class: a CNAS study that found economic sanctions had meaningful effects only 40% of the time.
– Conservative won close election in South Korea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 7
– NYT says US has approached Venezuela about buying oil.
– WaPO says US is planning in case there is a Ukrainian govt in exile.
– WSJ says Russians are recruiting Syrians for Ukraine war.
– K St Lobbyists for Russia out of luck.
– Politico has more on the interagency fight over trade policy
– A student told me of Treasury Oct 2021 report on sanctions policy.
– Amy Zegart analyzes effects of Ukraine info ops.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Timing matters, but no one has a good clock
While Russian forces in Ukraine continue to advance, the invasion is moving slower than Moscow wanted. Internatioinal sanctions are just beginning to bite. The question now is how long it will take for Russians to realize that they need to get rid of President Putin.
Ukrainian resistance is strong, but the Russian forces are overwhelming
The Ukrainians are fighting hard. Their mobile and agile territorial defense is doing a lot of damage to the heavily armed but slow-moving and much less agile Russian forces. Moscow has admitted to losing 500 soldiers. Likely the number is far greater. Russian media are still portraying the war a “special military activity” at the invitation of the secessionist “republics” of Luhansk and Donestk rather than as an full-scale, unprovoked invasion. Most Russians will understand that it is risky to say anything else.
Even heroic resistance cannot immediately overcome overwhelming force. The Russian army is now shelling population centers, targeting civilian institutions, and seizing nuclear power plants. Yesterday’s firefight and fire at the largest concentration of nuclear plants in Europe suggests how little the Russian army cares about imperiling millions of people.
International sanctions are also strong, but their full impact will not be immediate
The US and EU have imposed unprecedented sanctions intended to cripple Russia’s economy. Some consequences are immediate: interest rates have spiked in Russia, the ruble has tanked, and the stock market is closed to avoid catastrophic losses. Russians are unable to withdraw money from banks while prices have skyrocketed. Foreign investors are fleeing. Foreign airlines are shut down. Many local airlines flying Boeings and Airbuses will be unable to get spare parts, making travel even within Russia (which spans 11 time zones) problematic.
While some of the effects of sanctions are apparent right away, many others will take time to manifest. Within a year or so, Russians will lose a big slice of their real incomes. The Russian government, which depends heavily on oil and natural gas revenues, will be straitened. Even in the current tight oil market, buyers are refusing to purchase Russian products, which are selling at a 20% discount. Russian foreign currency reserves were massive before the invasion, but about half are now frozen. It will take time to exhaust the rest.
Ukraine’s fate depends on how quickly people in Russia react
The key variable is how quickly Russians react. The oligarchs are already feeling the pinch, but Putin has them on a short leash. The usual elite Russian coup is unlikely. Demonstrations in Russia have so far attracted thousands and perhaps tens of thousands, most of whom are the usual suspects. Academic scholarship suggests that mobilizing on a sustained basis about 3.5% of the population will bring results (but there are exceptions in both directions):
That would mean about 5 million people, or at least ten times the number mobilized so far. Some would not be the usual suspects, who don’t number that many.
Putin will do what he can to prevent that from happening. Popular protest is his worst nightmare. The war in Ukraine not only portends a long insurgency and ferocious occupation but also an end to anything resembling free speech and association inside Russia. Its “democracy,” imperfect as it was, will become a full-fledged draconian autocracy.
Timing matters
The damage Putin will do depends then on timing. If something like those 5 million Russians get to the streets soon, we could see an abrupt reversal of Ukraine’s fate. But if they don’t, Ukraine will become Putin’s laboratory for how to subjugate a population of more than 40 million, most of whom want to live in Europe rather than a newly constructed Russian empire. There is no telling when or if the protests in Russia will reach critical mass. Timing matters, but no one has a good clock.
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Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort
Russians are going to be a lot better off if their army fails in Ukraine than if it succeeds. Ukrainians as well. President Putin by contrast thinks he cannot survive failure. He is likely right. The invasion he thought would enable absorption of Ukraine and Belarus into an enlarged Russian Federation is a strategic failure. Most Ukrainians and Russians don’t want it. Putin may declare it, but reality will deny it.
The situation on the ground
That however makes little difference right now. The Russian army has overtaken, if not entirely taken, Kherson, near Ukraine’s southern coast. Kharkiv is under bombardment, as is Kyiv. The Russians are planning to surround both and demand surrender. Failing that, they will obliterate parts of these two largest cities in Ukraine. The picture is not good:
Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is still strong but faces overwhelming force. My guess is Putin will have to use it, making an eventual occupation even more difficult than it might otherwise have been.
The situation in the world
The international effort in support of Ukraine is going far better than the war. Sanctions have already begun to bite. The ruble is down. Interest rates are up. Russian hard currency reserves are mostly frozen. International companies are moving out. Russians may not yet have understood the consequences, but their standard of living is going to collapse.
Almost a million Ukrainians have fled, mostly to neighboring countries. The EU so far is welcoming them. The logistics of handling the crowds at the border are however daunting. Housing, feeding, and providing education and healthcare for the mainly women and children refugees will be more than daunting.
The situation in Russia
Russians have demonstrated against the war. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny has appealed on Twitter from his prison cell for more protests. How Russians react will be pivotal. If they blame Putin for their economic troubles and turn out by the millions in peaceful demonstrations, Ukraine might be saved sooner rather than later from Moscow’s designs. If the Russians blame the West and fail to demand withdrawal from Ukraine, Putin will be able to survive, at least for now.
Things will get harder
The West has proven remarkably unified and forceful in its reaction to Russian aggression. It won’t be easy to keep it that way. Europe is solid, because the threat is clear and immediate. The Americans so far are solid too, but higher gasoline prices and a slowed recovery could put Biden in a bind before the November election. The coordinated drawdown of petroleum reserves , in which 31 countries participated, was the right thing to do. But it did not have the immediate effect desired. Oil everywhere and natural gas prices in Europe are still spiking.
None of that changes the strategic picture. Putin has lost. The ambition to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian empire is unachievable. But the Ukrainians are also losing. Their country faces destruction, occupation, and repression. Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort.
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