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Doubling down will make things worse

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Kyiv is not yet captured. Russian losses are substantial. Russian air power and logistics have been ineffectual. A war that Moscow imagined would be an easy walk has turned into a hard slog.

Both the Russians and the internationals are doubling down

Still Putin has no reason to abandon the effort. Kharkiv is all but surrounded. A long military convoy is close to Kiev. The Russians have made progress in the south. Putin will double down, throwing more military resources into the fight. The Russian Army has started to launch artillery shells into civilian areas. That will enhance the flow of refugees and displaced people, complicating the Ukrainians’ responsibilities. Russia hasn’t yet exhausted his its cyber capacities. It could still turn out the lights and the cell phones. Moscow could also strike outside Ukraine. Georgia and Moldova are vulnerable to Russian forces. Or worse: the Russians could strike the Baltics or Poland, bringing NATO into the war.

Ukrainian capacity to double down is limited, but NATO and partner countries are a force multiplier even if not yet belligerents. The sanctions adopted go much further than anyone anticipated. Central banks have blocked Russian access to most of its own reserves in foreign currency. International financial transactions are getting to be impossible. Technology controls will take longer to bite, but bite they will. Weapons and ammunition are flowing rapidly into Ukraine from its supporters, now including Germany.

How can this end?

Sooner or later, this war will end. What are the possible scenarios?

1. A Russian military victory in a week or two, without much further destruction. This now seems unlikely, if only because the Ukrainians are determined to fight on. Russia would still have its hands full pacifying the country. It will meet passive and active resistance at every turn. Sanctions will remain in place, wrecking the Russian economy. Russia will be forced to rely on China to evade them.
2. Months of siege warfare, with a lot of destruction. If the Ukrainians can hold out, Moscow will also persist, causing massive damage in Kiev, Kharkiv, and other cities. Eventually a Russian puppet government will be installed. Sanctions will remain in place, not only wrecking the Russian economy but also making required reconstruction in Ukraine impossible. Russian reliance on China will be even greater. Again, the Russians will face passive and active resistance.
3. A coup in Moscow. Putin’s oligarchs are already jumping ship. His Defense Minister and Chief of Staff looked noticeably unhappy meeting when he ordered them to put Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert (video above). Coups in the aftermath of military setbacks have happened before in Russia. It could happen again, though it would not necessarily bring to power someone who wants to change Moscow’s autocratic direction.
4. A popular revolt in Russia. This is perhaps Putin’s greatest fear. The anti-war demonstrators in Russia have numbered in the thousands so far. If the war continues, they could start numbering in the tens and hundreds of thousands. Putin did little to prepare the Russians for killing Ukrainians, presumably because he thought the Ukrainians would fold easily. His disinformation machine is now working overtime, but it is late in the game.

Yes, I would favor this fourth outcome. Popular revolts have a clear record of producing faster and more democratic outcomes. But they require a degree of commitment and planning that hasn’t yet been evident in Russia.

A fifth scenario

It is also possible the Ukrainians, and democracy, will win. This is an even lower probability than a quick Russian victory. But it could happen. The Russians would withdraw and pay reparations, as Iraq has done to Kuwait. The West would provide massive assistance for reconstruction. The EU would begin a serious accession negotiation. Ukraine would crack down on corruption, attact foreign investment, and begin to catch up economically with Poland and Hungary. Russians would notice and insist on their own democratic regime.

Yes, doubling down is going to make things worse, but we can always dream.

Stevenson’s army, February 27

– Germany approves sending weapons to Ukraine.

– Neighbors welcome refugees.

– Europe agrees to Swift sanction.

– Slate has as good list of additional possible sanctions.

– Russian infantry now attacking Kharkiv

But note these reports on Saturday from a friend whose client has business interests in Ukraine:

Attacks Around Ukraine – “Indiscriminate shelling by cruise missiles and various range rockets continues throughout northern and western Ukraine.  These attacks are not supported by ground forces.  The one exception is Kharkiv.  Kharkiv, once a Ukrainian capital, is under air and ground attack from numerous directions as is Kyiv.  The attacks on Kharkiv have been beaten off by a combination of military and volunteer forces and since mid-day yesterday the Russians have been shelling Kharkiv suburbs with no military significance.  Civilian deaths have now been reported from all parts of Ukraine and currently exceed 300.  Military deaths are now reported at around 400.”

Minimal commitment of Russian infantry. Russia has not been able to control air, due to a combination of skilled Ukrainian pilots, SA-2 anti-aircraft missiles that date back to Soviet times, and the apparent deployment of AWACS planes under NATO command, with the capability of jamming Russian tactical communications, both air and ground, and aircraft targeting and navigation equipment. They are flying over Polish and Romanian territory. Their jamming equipment has a radius of over 450 miles (725KM), allowing the AWACS to cover the entire Ukrainian airspace from a stand-off position. With no commitment of infantry and limited ability to control the air, it appears that Russia is relying on missile strikes launched from Russia and Belarus against civilian targets inside Ukraine, like this example, trying to intimidate Ukrainians into pressuring the Government into peace negotiations

Market Vendors – The street market vendors in our neighborhood of Kyiv are emptying bottles of beer on the street, and then they give the empties to others to fill the empties with gasoline for Molotov Cocktails.

Drone Strike – Earlier today, one of Ukraine’s Turkish-made drones took out an entire Russian re-supply column, including supplies of gasoline, ammunition, and food.

Logistics – Logistics seems to be a major Russian weakness. They have little or no experience in re-supply. The 2008 invasion of Georgia lasted 4 days, and Russia had complete control of Georgian airspace. In Georgia, re-supply was not a problem. It is likely that Russia assumed that the invasion of Ukraine would take only a few days, and therefore re-supply wouldn’t be a problem. It appears that Russian forces are in danger of running out of fuel and ammunition. As for food, there were reports that when they were in Belarus, before the Ukraine invasion started, Russian troops were not being fed, and they had to buy food on their own, or forage.

Ground Attacks – “For example, the fighting near my home consisted of a breakthrough of one tank and two armored personnel carriers coming in from the north at 2 am. Prior to their arrival a cruise missile hit a military academy about two kilometers away. The column was coming in after the missile. They were stopped and destroyed with anti-tank weaponry. Two soldiers got away and they were killed by small arms fire.  From start to finish about two hours.”

Little or no infantry support. It seems as if Russia doesn’t want to commit infantry into an urban setting, leaving armor open to attacks from Ukrainians firing anti-tank missiles from hidden positions.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).