Tag: sanctions
Only resistance can stop Putin
President Putin has committed Russia not only to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine but also to replacing its democratically elected government. He wants a vassal state with a puppet government in Kyiv, like Lukashenko’s in Minsk. Donald Trump is expressing his admiration. China’s President Xi is helping finance the enterprise, which has ended a long peace in central Europe.
Putin is winning
I was wrong in thinking Russian objectives would be limited to the south and east. I wasn’t alone. Ukrainian President Zelensky did not anticipate the assault on the capital, which aims to replace him. Russian forces are already in Kyiv, which is suffering bombardment with missiles as well as a ground assault. Appeals to citizens to take up arms at this point aren’t likely to change the situation. Unless something dramatic happens soon, Ukraine will soon be captured, except perhaps for a rump territory around Lviv in the west.
The Western response
The Western reaction has been vigorous. Pre-emptive release of intelligence on Russian plans ruined Putin’s effort to blame the invasion on its Ukrainian victims. Sanctions are making it difficult for Russian banks to survive while the stock market crashes and the ruble tanks. More sanctions are on the way. Banks and individuals will be cut out of world financial markets. Russia will soon find it difficult to obtain Western technology.
But sanctions won’t change Putin’s mind. You get what you want from them only when an opponent negotiates for relief, not when they are imposed.
NATO has beefed up its forces on Russia’s periphery, the opposite of what Putin wanted. Any move against a NATO country now will bring a far wider and more dangerous war.
The conflict will continue
The war may end soon, but the conflict will continue. the Russian government has earned the enmity of all Ukrainian patriots. Unfortunately, some of those are extreme nationalists, but so too are lots of Putin’s supporters in Russia.
It is arguable that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is in the tradition of Hitler’s Anschluss into Austria. The invasion has certainly been justified on similar grounds. Even if the war ends in a Russian victory, the conflict will continue until Ukraine is again an independent state. I doubt however that it will accept the neutral status Austria lives with, and RAND colleagues have proposed. Ukrainians are going to want NATO membership more than ever before.
Impact in Russia
The impact of this war on Russia is difficult to predict. Pre-invasion views of Russians on Ukraine issues were more nuanced than might be assumed. Even views in Donbas were equivocal on remaining in Ukraine. Putin and his circle are diehard Russian nationalists, but he regards Ukrainians as “brothers.” That view is common in Russia. But unlike Putin, most Russians don’t think it appropriate for Cain to kill Abel.
War polarizes. Putin’s propaganda machine is working overtime. His repressive forces are too. Russian police have arrested thousands of anti-war protesters all over the country. The question is whether the economic pain from sanctions will strengthen Putin’s hold on power or loosen it.
Worse in Ukraine
The repression in Ukraine will be far worse than in Russia. Moscow’s forces will attempt to capture or kill the officials of its democratically elected government and parliament. They will install a puppet government that will need to impose its will. Ukraine’s army and police forces will be subjagated and purged. Its educational system will be vetted for hints of anti-Russian or Ukrainian nationalist sentiment. Moscow will take control of the media and install Russia Today and Sputnik, or clones of them, as major outlets.
One outstanding question
It is not clear yet whether Russia will try to take all of Ukraine, or leave a rump territory in the west near Lviv as an escape valve for opponents. That might make repression in Kyiv easier, but it would also given Ukrainians a territory from which to mount an insurgency. Best bet is that Moscow will try for all of Ukraine. Putin will only stop when resistance forces him to do so.
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Stevenson’s army, February 24
Russia planned its war. US & NATO planned sanctions. Now we see how good the plans were. I am concerned about how well our banking and commercial systems can implement the tough sanctions — the EU list announced yesterday was over 600 pages long. And even removing Russia from SWIFT only forces them to use faxes. I also worry about accidents and miscalculations.
Here’s Putin’s delusional, mendacious war speech.
– David Sanger notes he even claimed Ukraine was seeking nuclear weapons.
– Al jazeera has a good timeline.
– Steve Walt worries about the imbalance of interests and capabilities.
Where is China? FP’s China Watch has a summary. And WaPo has news this morning.
Meanwhile, here’s a piece about a longtime CIA official, a friend of mine. And a New Yorker piece about the Taliban today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 18
– Reuters has details on emerging Iran nuclear deal.
-WaPo has background on French withdrawals from Africa.
– GAO assesses DOD competition with China.
– Politico says Congress deferred to Biden on sanctions.
– CISA reports Russian hacking of defense contractors.
– UVA study finds more proof of Big Sort — people forming like-minded political communities.
– NYT reports pressure in Senate to shorten roll calls.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 16
– USTR report says China has failed to live up to trade commitments.
– FP lists new US economic restrictions on China.
– Lawfare analyzes DOD report on China’s Military Power.
– NYT says US intel on Russia has improved, especially regarding military. But CFR sees dilemmas in what to reveal.
– NYT says Russia is courting Latin America
-WaPo says Russian hackers have penetrated deeply in Ukraine.
–Senators can’t agree on Russia sanctions, divided over NordStream2
– GAO notes high level of congressional report requirements on DOD – 1,429 in 2020.
In class I mentioned how presidents can increase their legal authorities by signing statements refusing to enforce laws passed by Congress. Biden did that in approving NDAA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 9
– WSJ touts US information warfare over Ukraine.
– Politico reports some intelligence officials think too much is being released.
– Russians deny promises to Macron.
– At FP, writer sees Xi-Putin statement as no big deal.
– Maybe hypersonic weapons can easily be defeated, but that technology is on the critical list.
– The FY23 budget was due yesterday, but the 2022 budget hasn’t been passed. Expect lengthy delays.
– Sanctions against Honduran president revealed.
– Updated version of WaPo report on Afghan evacuation gives more evidence supporting my view that a key factor was the organizational culture clash between a State Dept that always resists closing an embassy and was sympathetic to the destabilizing effects on the host nation government and a military that makes detailed, rigid plans without regard to diplomatic and psychological consequences — coupled with a White House that prefers hedging to binary choices.
CORRECTION: The stopgap spending bill runs to March 11, not April as I wrongly said yesterday.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 4
– WaPo has the best tick-tock on the raid that killed the ISIS leader.
– Fed Kaplan assesses how the war on terror is going.
– NYT reveals how Putin has sanctions-proofed Russia.
– US reveals more Russian planning for pretexts for Ukraine war.
-WSJ says even renewed Iran nuclear deal will leave it within 12 months of a bomb.
-State Dept approves new Mideast arms sales.
-Documents show Trump WH considered using NSA to gather election info.
– Wired says an independent US hacker took down North Korea’s internet.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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