Tag: Saudi Arabia
I hope we’ve learned unilateral withdrawal is a bad idea
Judging from my inbox, a lot of people around the world are thinking the US withdrawal from Afghanistan could be prelude to withdrawal elsewhere. I think the opposite is true. The Afghanistan debacle will make it difficult to discuss withdrawal almost anywhere for at least two and likely three years.
President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan completely, thus fulfilling (four months late) the terms of President Trump’s agreement with the Taliban, has strong support across the political spectrum in Washington. But the way it was done was shambolic. Biden failed to ensure either a negotiated “decent interval” from the Taliban or a commitment of the Afghan security forces to defend the country’s government. There appears to have been no serious transition plan. The Americans literally withdrew from Bagram air base, the biggest in Afghanistan, in the dark of night, without consulting or informing the local Afghan commander.
It may well be that this was done to prevent panic, as President Biden has implied. But that was an ill-considered plan. Did anyone really think things would go more smoothly without Afghan cooperation?
The “Saigon in Kabul” scenes will inoculate the Administration against any further withdrawals, at least until a second Biden term. There will of course be force adjustments for operational reasons, some of them potentially major, like getting the American aircraft out of Al Udeid in Qatar. They are exposed to Iranian missiles and will need to be moved if there are going to be hostilities, or even the threat of hostilities, with Tehran. I wouldn’t mind seeing fewer US troops committed in autocracies like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, but those would need to be carefully considered and well-executed. We may not like their style of governance, but replacements could be worse. I would expect no major drawdowns in places like Iraq, Kosovo, Cuba (Guantanamo), Japan, South Korea, or Europe, unless they are negotiated and agreed with the local authorities.
The only major US commitment under discussion in Washington these days is to Taiwan. China is growing in military strength. Taiwanese, watching Hong Kong and Xinjiang, are less interested in reunification and increasingly interested in independence. It is no longer as clear as it once was that the US has both the means and the will to defend against a Chinese attack, even if it is eminently clear the Taiwanese would make a takeover difficult for Beijing. But there are no deployed American ground forces in Taiwan, so no question of withdrawal. I assume the US Navy will continue to make its presence felt in Western Pacific and seek to improve its posture in defending the first island chain.
It has been clear for two decades that the US does not want to be the world’s policeman, patroling worldwide. I doubt Americans even want to serve as the world’s fireman, reacting to conflagrations as a first responder. The arguments for retrenchment are strong. But the consequences of withdrawal, especially when unilateral, can be catastrophic. I hope we’ve learned that much.
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Peace Picks | July 12-16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Views from the Hill: A Conversation with Rep. Tom Malinowski | July 12, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host Congressman Tom Malinowski in a conversation moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Gerald Feierstein. Congressman Malinowski will begin with remarks on the Biden administration’s approach to key Middle East challenges, including its efforts to elevate human rights into long-standing partnerships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, how to jumpstart negotiations with Iran, and how to build on the recent normalizations with Israel.
How is Congress thinking about the new administration’s handoff with legacies of the Trump administration including blank checks on human rights, no-questions-asked weapons sales, and the Abraham Accords? How do the Biden administration’s commitments to prioritizing human rights stand up in the Middle East? What’s behind the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic engagements?
Speakers:
Rep. Tom Malinowski
US Congressman, 7th District of New Jersey
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feirstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
- The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter | July 12, 2021 | 4:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Pulitzer-winning historian Bird (The Good Spy) discerns much positive achievement in Carter’s one-term presidency, including airline deregulation that made flying cheap; prescient energy policies that boosted domestic energy supplies and solar power; human rights initiatives…and the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement… Bird skillfully paints Carter as a mix of genuine idealism and “clear-eyed ruthlessness” behind a folksy facade, and shrewdly analyzes the forces of stagflation, deindustrialization, and U.S. imperial decline—capped by the Iran hostage crisis—that hobbled him. The result is a lucid, penetrating portrait that should spur reconsideration of Carter’s much-maligned presidency.
Speakers:
Kai Bird
Former Fellow; Director of the Leon Levy Center for Biography at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen
Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University, Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association
- A Conversation with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | July 13, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala has been chosen to lead the WTO at one of the most challenging moments in the history of the institution. After navigating tariff disputes and trade wars in 2018 and 2019, the WTO is now at the center of helping restart the engine of global trade. As vaccination efforts continue, countries are looking to see how the WTO will address critical issues including vaccine nationalism and supply chain bottlenecks. For a historic moment, the member nations of the WTO made a historic selection. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and first African to lead the organization. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala will join the Council for a candid conversation on the WTO’s priorities and her vision for 2021 and beyond. What role should intellectual property play in promoting equitable vaccine distribution? How can citizens left behind by the forces of global trade over the past several decades be supported? These are just some of the many challenges facing the WTO.
Speakers:
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Director-General World Trade Organization
Frederick Kempe (moderator)
President and CEO, The Atlantic Council
- Book Launch: A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States | July 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
Free zones are common features of Gulf Arab states and their economies, but these trade and investment hubs are often understood only in a very narrow sense. Free zones sit at the nexus of some of the region’s most contentious political economy issues: foreign ownership, expatriate labor, and taxes and other commercial fees. Established entities like the Jebel Ali Free Zones have significantly improved Dubai’s commercial reputation, while nascent and aspirational megaprojects – from Saudi Arabia’s Neom to Kuwait’s Silk City – incorporate free zone characteristics. The UAE’s sprawling free zone system continues to expand, and newer leaders, such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, appear committed to advance free zone-led development projects.
How have free zones around the Gulf contributed to economic diversification, the strengthening of the private sector, and employment creation? Are foreign ownership reforms, workforce nationalization initiatives, and new taxes and fees threatening to diminish incentives that free zones offer prospective investors? What role do free zones play in guarding against illicit financial flows? And how do free zones feature in diplomatic relations and the opening of new markets, from Israel to China?
Speakers:
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman
President, AGSIW
Robert Mogielnicki
Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Ziad Daoud
Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Sanam Vakil
Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House
- Building Faster to Achieve Net-Zero | July 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires building clean infrastructure at a significantly faster pace than we are currently able to site, permit, and approve infrastructure projects. Absent dramatic improvement, important projects and new technologies will sit on the sidelines and achieving net-zero by 2050 will be impossible. The Bipartisan Policy Center’s Smarter, Cleaner, Faster Infrastructure Task Force released 23 federal policy recommendations to accelerate the deployment of clean infrastructure. Join us for a virtual discussion in this second of a joint event series with Aspen Institute’s Energy & Environment Program on building faster to decarbonize our economy.
Speakers:
Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL)
United States House of Representatives
Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND)
United States House of Representatives
Bobby Jindal
Former Governor of Louisiana
- Saudi Arabia: Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges | July 14, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its July 2021 Article IV Consultation. This webinar will address the report in the context of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy and assess the government’s policy response. With lasting effects from the pandemic and lower oil prices through early 2021, fiscal pressure increased and heightened the pace of some economic reform. As the non-oil economy begins to recover, the Saudi government is faced with immediate policy challenges and the longer-term challenge of diversification away from oil reliance.
hat fiscal policy challenges has the volatility in the oil market created? How well are reforms meeting the need to generate more jobs for Saudi nationals in the private sector? How has the trajectory of foreign direct investment flows impacted the transformation of the Saudi economy?
Speakers:
Faris Al-Sulayman
Research fellow, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tim Callen
Assistant director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- Tokyo and the Long Game for the Olympics | July 14, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Having postponed the Games by a year as a result of the global pandemic, Tokyo will be hosting the Summer Olympics later this month. Although the worst of the spread of COVID may appear to be over in some parts of the world, concerns about the risks of hosting the Games continue to persist. It has also led to discussions worldwide about the future of the Olympic Games and prospects for hosting massive sporting events. Join us for a discussion on how the Olympics have shaped the political dynamics within Japan, and the challenges as well as opportunities for Japan becoming the first country to host the Games during a pandemic.
Speakers:
Jules Boykoff
Professor and Politics and Government Chair, Pacific University
Heather Dichter
Associate Professor, De Montfort University School of Humanities
Yuhei Inoue
Reader, Sports Management, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School
Shihoko Goto (moderator)
Deputy Director for Geoeconomics and Senior Associate for Northeast Asia, Asia Program, The Wilson Center
- Cybersecurity on the Final Frontier: Protecting Our Critical Space Assets from Cyber Threats | July 14, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Our overwhelming reliance on space technology puts us in a precarious position. Like any other increasingly digitized critical infrastructure, satellites and other space-based assets are vulnerable to cyberattacks. These concerns are no longer merely hypothetical and, if not mitigated, could interfere with the space-enabled technology we take for granted in our day-to-day lives as well as national security and global economic development broadly.
This event will offer expert insights into understanding and navigating the increasingly contested cyber threat landscape in space, including threat vectors unique to a space cyber attack, and high-level drivers necessary for hardening our critical space systems.
Speakers:
Meg King
Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
Jamie M. Morin
Executive Director of the Center for Space Policy and Strategy, the Aerospace Corporation
Theresa Hitchens (moderator)
Space and Air Force Reporter, Breaking Defense
Brandon Bailey (panelist)
Cybersecurity Senior Project Leader, Cyber Assessments and Research Department, the Aerospace Corporation
Prashant Doshi (panelist)
Associate Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
Erin Miller
Executive Director, Space ISAC
Ryan Speelman
Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
- The Renewal of Transatlantic Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition | July 15, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the world enters a new era of strategic competition, the transatlantic community will need to work closely to drive a new global agenda and advance a rules-based international order. China has grown more confident, and Russia more aggressive. Authoritarianism is resurgent, while democracies face critical challenges both at home and abroad. The purpose of this event is to discuss ways that the United States, Europe, and Canada can advance shared priorities and revitalize the most powerful democratic community in modern history.
Speakers:
Amb. Paula Dobriansky
Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Erik Brattberg
Director of the Europe Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ben Haddad
Director of the Europe Center, Atlantic Council
Luiza ch. Savage
Executive Director of Editorial Initiatives at Politico and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Sophia Gaston
Director, British Foreign Policy Group
Ash Jain
Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Berkshire Miller
Director & Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Bruce Jones
Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ben Roswell
President and Research Director, Canadian International Council
Maureen Boyd
Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
- Can a New U.N. Produce Peace in Yemen? | July 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
When Martin Griffiths, the outgoing United Nations special envoy to Yemen, gave his final briefing to the U.N. Security Council on June 15, he painted a “bleak picture” of stalled efforts to broker a cease-fire and initiate talks over ending the country’s 6-year civil war. Since former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed the U.N.’s first special representative to Yemen in 2011, the country has undergone a precipitous transformation, with successive envoys overseeing an unsuccessful political transition and the eruption of a civil war, with little progress toward peace.
With diplomatic circles now humming with speculation about who will replace Griffiths, what issues should be top of the new envoy’s agenda? How has the situation in Yemen changed since the appointment of the first U.N. envoy, and have mediation efforts kept pace with the evolution of the conflict? What lessons can be gleaned from the efforts of previous special envoys? And what recommendations can be made for the incoming envoy?
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Non-Resident Fellow, Middle East Institute
Peter Salisbury
Senior Analyst, Yemen, Crisis Group
Gregory D. Johnsen
Former Member, U.N. Panel of Experts on Yemen
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Stevenson’s army, June 28
US air strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iranian-linked militias. NYT background. Official release.
UN told Russian mercenaries commit war crimes in Africa.
Bruce Riedel remembers the Khobar Towers bombing 25 years ago. He notes how US retaliated against Iran. The incident also led to a civ-mil clash when SecDef Cohen wanted to punish senior officers and USAF Chief of Staff wanted to punish only those immediately responsible. The chief retired early in quiet protest. For me it was a clash between the Navy and Air Force approaches to command responsibility.
Fred Kaplan reviews West Point’s long history of teaching about race.
Tucker Carlson attacks Gen.Milley.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 23
– In keeping with their commitment to give Congress their personal & professional views when asked, the JCS have expressed concerns about military justice reform, though CJCS Milley says he has an “open mind” on changing the process for sexual harassment complaints. Meanwhile, SecDef Austin endorsed the change.
-On Lawfare, writers say China is more likely to subvert Taiwan than to invade.
-US has seized and shut down some Iranian-linked websites.
– CFIUS is blocking Chinese purchase of a South Korean chip company.
– NYT says some Saudis involved in Khashoggi killing got prior military training in US.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Nationalism is rising, but sectarianism won’t fade quickly
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) June 9 organized a discussion on issues of nationalism and sectarianism in the Middle East. The Sectarianism, Proxies & De-sectarianization project (SEPAD) co-organized; its director Simon Mabon joined the panel as an expert on Saudi Arabia. Together with two experts on Lebanon and Iraq, respectively, he assessed the state of sectarianism and nationalist projects in these three countries. Iraq and Lebanon are experiencing grassroots protest movements to overcome sectarianism while Saudi Arabia is seeing a major top-down drive through the Vision 2030 project spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Should these be understood as attempts to let national identity overcome sectarianism in politics? If so, can we expect them to be successful? The panel agreed that these issues are unlikely to be solved quickly or by MbS’s preferred economic means, but a clear shift in political thinking is occurring in the younger generations.
The speakers were:
Geneive Abdo
Visiting Fellow
AGSIW
Simon Mabon
Chair in International Politics
Lancaster University
Director
Richardson Institute
Director
SEPAD
Maha Yahya
Director
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Kristin Smith Diwan (moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar
AGSIW
Two protest movements and one grand vision
As Simon Mabon explained, SEPAD analyzes the events in the modern Middle East and tests the theory that secularist national identities are replacing sectarian political identities. The focus for his talk lay on the three countries Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. As Abdo and Yahya indicated, Lebanon and Iraq are experiencing major protest movements that attack the corruption, lack of accountability, and cronyism in their countries. Both have democratic systems that reserve political positions and parliamentary representation to specific sectarian groups. In practice, as Yahya said, this “turned the relationship between individuals and their state into one that is mediated by sectarian community.” The political system has become a way to divide the cake among power brokers, who in Lebanon are referred to as ‘mafia’.
The protest movements in both of these countries self-identify as secular. As Abdo underlined, Iraqi protesters are overwhelmingly Shia and use Shia religious symbolism (such as references to the martyrdom of Shia Imam Hussein) in their demonstrations. Moreover, the Shia clergy in Iraq openly supports and collaborates with the protest movement. In this younger generation there is a clear division between personal religious identity and political identity. It is in the latter that desectarianization has occurred. Furthermore, the protesters emphasize that their agenda is issue-based.
Maha Yahya noted that Lebanon differs. The current protests go beyond clear-cut issues (such as the Whatsapp-tax that triggered the current protest movement) and aim at a complete overhaul of the sectarian political system. The individual controversies and issues that abound in Lebanese politics are seen as symptoms of a broken regime.
The situation in Saudi Arabia might appear unrelated. The Arab Spring saw some demonstrations in the Shia East of the country, but nothing on the scale of the other two countries discussed here. MBS is seeking to transform and modernize his country under his ambitious ‘Vision 2030’ project. Funded by billions of petrodollars, MBS wants to wean Saudi Arabia off its reliance on oil and modernize its economy. His vision includes relaxation of the strict religious laws for economic and political purposes. MBS hopes to transform Saudi citizenship to a secularist, civic nationalism in which both Sunni Wahhabi and Shia groups participate. According to Mabon, the ambitious pace and huge investments that go along with this show that MBS believes he has a ‘magic switch’ that can achieve this transformation of identities.
Sectarianism won’t go away easily
The panel agreed it would be naïve to think that deep-seated sectarian social and political systems will go away quickly. Vision 2030 aims to remove sectarian divisions by offering everyone a seat at the economic table, and therefore a stake in the state. The systems of marginalization and othering cannot be undone with a ‘magic switch’ and some ‘bread and games’, and centuries of repression cannot so easily be erased. Investing hundreds of millions into shopping malls in Shia areas could be seen as tokenism and introduces new issues of gentrification and marginalization along class lines. Nonetheless, a less cynical view could see these as the first steps towards change according to Mabon.
In Lebanon and Iraq, a major obstacle is the lack of unity within the protest movements. Groups and proto-parties are forming, aiming for Iraqi elections planned for October and Lebanese parliamentary elections to come in 2022. However, the grassroots movements have not yet coalesced into clear protest parties. Yahya and Abdo agreed that in both Lebanon and Iraq the political system discourages new parties, and the existing political establishment is unlikely to disappear in one electoral cycle. Yahya is cautiously optimistic in the medium term about the grassroots developments in Lebanon. Abdo indicated that Iraqi proto-parties are also emerging and receiving donations. However, there is a serious debate on whether the protesters should boycott the elections or try to get as many seats as possible. Iraq’s 2018 elections had an official turnout of 44%, although the real number is estimated to have been as low as 20%, meaning that turnout is already a critical issue for the established elite’s legitimacy. Moderator Diwan pointed out that boycotts in the region (such as in Bahrain or Kuwait) haven’t generally been a successful way to challenge entrenched elites.
Watch the recording of the event here:
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Stevenson’s army, May 2
– NYT sued for release of Trump’s less restrictive guidance on drone attacks and finally succeeded. The actual document is here.
– NYT reports on secret talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
– AP reports North Korea warnings to US.
– Smithsonian historian argues that banning liquor sales on election day, requring permits
for rallies, and even secret ballot boxes were elite efforts to limit votes by the poor.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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