Tag: Saudi Arabia
Iraq’s election: a mixed bag is better than a mess
My Middle East Institute colleagues have already elegantly parsed the October 10 Iraqi election results and their implications. It’s a mixed bag: Moqtada al Sadr, who already controls more seats than anyone else in parliament gained, as did former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki; Shia militia politicians, more moderate Shia, and Sunni Islamists weakened; Sunni secularists, independents, regional advocates, and both the leading Kurdish party and a newish one gained. Turnout was low, due in part to a boycott encouraged by activists who had previously campaigned for the early poll. What it all means for election of the President, Parliament speaker, and Prime Minister won’t be known for weeks if not months.
Just as interesting to me is the process: it came off pretty well, with little violence and intimidation by Iraqi standards. Almost two decades after the American invasion, Iraqis have grown accustomed to something like a democratic regime, albeit more than a little tainted with lack of voter enthusiasm, corruption, patronage, sectarianism, and armed groups only nominally under state control. Politics is a rough sport in Iraq, but not now a deadly one, unless you are a demonstrator fired on by sectarian militias.
The main issues are now economic. The American presence, down to a couple of thousand troops plus contractors, is no more discussed than Iranian influence, exercised in part through the Popular Mobilization Forces and their politicians. Kurdistan’s independence aspirations have faded but still simmer. Even with oil prices at a 7-year peak, the new government will face big challenges in maintaining and growing oil and gas production while steering the economy towards non-hydrocarbon development and adjusting to global warming, which threatens to make parts of the country uninhabitable.
If the next government can even begin to meet those challenges, Iraq could play an important role in a Middle East that is adjusting to the prospect of reduced American attention. As a Shia and Arab majority country with a large Kurdish population and many other smaller minorities, a prosperous Iraq could be a multivalent force for stability and coexistence, helping to bridge divides among Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. The current Prime Minister has made some good but still tentative steps in that direction. It is no secret that the Americans and Europeans will hope he is able again to form a government, unlikely as that may seem in a volatile political environment. They also liked his two predecessors, both of whom are, at least for now, down and out.
It is hard to be optimistic about the prospect of serious economic reform in Iraq, which has so far failed to turn its oil wealth into benefits–or even electricity and water–for ordinary citizens. Moqtada’s minions have not governed in the past in transparent and accountable ways. The country lacks an independent judiciary and much of its press is under the control of major politicians. But if law and order prevail, the next government will have an enormous opportunity both domestically and internationally to enable Iraq to benefit both its own citizens and the region. A mixed bag is better than a mess.
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Stevenson’s army, October 10
– NYT has long article on growing US-China tension over Taiwan.
– Xi calls for peaceful reunification.
– Nuclear proliferator A Q Khan dies at 85.
– CRS has recent backgrounders on Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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US withdrawal makes everyone in the Middle East recalibrate
I have long believed the US is overcommitted in the Middle East, given its declining interests in the region, and needed to draw down. I confess I did not anticipate how clumsily we would manage to do it. I also did not fully anticipate how others would react. The American withdrawal has set off a cascade of efforts at improving relations both within the region and with external powers, mainly China and Russia. Not all the improvements are in the US interest, but several are interesting.
First example: the Abrahamic accords. The Saudis, Emiratis, and Bahrainis have understood for some time that the American commitment to their autocracies was weakening. The failure of Washington to react to the drone attack on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019 confirmed that perception. They needed to think about replacing Washington’s security guarantees, which in any event were aimed at external enemies, while the main threat is in these three countries increasingly internal. They have turned to Israel for the technology required to guarantee that their monarchies remain stable.
But, you may object, Saudi Arabia hasn’t yet recognized Israel, as the UAE and Bahrain have. On that, I only have anecdata, but it is compelling. Sitting in a business class lounge in Riyadh some 2+years ago, I found myself surrounded by 40-something males speaking Hebrew. They carried an unusual number of hard-sided cases. When I asked the Israeli next to me why I was hearing so much Hebrew in Riyadh, he smiled coldly and said: “If I told you, I would have to kill you.” I concluded they were techies carrying lots of electronics after providing assistance to Saudi internal intelligence agencies. I suspect Israel’s improving relations with Egypt have a lot to do with internal security as well, inaddition to President Sissi’s attitude toward the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
Second I would cite the response to Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter plane in 2015. It initially caused tension in the bilateral relationship, but Turkey had a problem: the US and NATO were not backing Ankara up and instead the Americans were beginning to ally with Kurds, whom President Erdogan regards as terrorists and mortal enemies. Soon Ankara was apologizing, relations between Ankara and Moscow were improving and Turkey was participating in the Russian-sponsored Astana process for ceasefire/surrenders of the Syrian opposition to the Assad regime. Russian and Turkish troops have even patrolled together in both Idlib and northern Syria, though the relationship remains parlous.
Third are the tentative efforts by Saudi Arabia and Iran to come to some sort of modus vivendi. This has included high-level meetings in Baghdad as well as trips to Tehran and Riyadh. The Saudis and Iranians have no territorial dispute and many symmetrical interests, including not allowing an adversary to rile their respective Shia and Sunni minorities and maintaining their theologically-based and increasingly nationalist autocracies. A mutual stand-down from bilateral tensions could benefit both.
Fourth is the at least partial resolution of a conflict internal to the Gulf Cooperation Council. The Saudis and Emiratis have essentially given up on their latest effort to bring Qatar to heel. Doha weathered the embargo and other sanctions better than the Kingdom and the Emirates anticipated, with assistance from Turkey, Iran, and the US, which wasn’t (yet) interested in abandoning its largest base in the region, Al Udeid. There was no point in continuing a fruitless campaign whose only real impact was to weaken the Gulf Arabs.
Fifth example: OPEC+. After a price war in 2020, the Saudis and Russians found common cause in maintaining higher oil prices, which are essential to both their national budgets. Riyadh and Moscow would prefer prices around $100/barrel, but they can’t push much above $70 or so because that would bring on unconventional sources in the US and elsewhere, especially in a low-interest-rate environment. So they are more or less content to leave prices where they have lingered for much of the epidemic, hoping that stronger growth later will bump up both interest rates and oil prices.
There are other examples: rapprochement between Turkey and the UAE, the UAE push for reconciliation with Syria, and Turkey’s sometime courting of Iran. The point is that US withdrawal is causing everyone to recalibrate and look for alternatives to American support that seems increasingly unlikely. I might like recalibration to push Israel into a more positive attitude toward Palestine, but that seems a bridge too far. Still, US withdrawal is getting the Middle East pregnant with possibilities.
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Stevenson’s army, September 12
– Stanford’s Amy Zegart says CIA post-9/11 has been too involved in military activities, weakening its core mission of avoiding strategic surprise.
– WaPo notes the new bipartisan duo working to reform US war powers laws
– Pentagon has regained control of 6% of IP addresses secretly given to Florida company.
– LA Times says US has removed Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia.
– FBI released highly redacted report on Saudi involvement in 9/11 attacks. Just look at the redactions!
– Oversight: foreign policy committees hear from SecState Blinken on Mon & Tues in open sessions. SASC hears from Brown & Milley behind closed doors. Check out schedules.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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I hope we’ve learned unilateral withdrawal is a bad idea
Judging from my inbox, a lot of people around the world are thinking the US withdrawal from Afghanistan could be prelude to withdrawal elsewhere. I think the opposite is true. The Afghanistan debacle will make it difficult to discuss withdrawal almost anywhere for at least two and likely three years.
President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan completely, thus fulfilling (four months late) the terms of President Trump’s agreement with the Taliban, has strong support across the political spectrum in Washington. But the way it was done was shambolic. Biden failed to ensure either a negotiated “decent interval” from the Taliban or a commitment of the Afghan security forces to defend the country’s government. There appears to have been no serious transition plan. The Americans literally withdrew from Bagram air base, the biggest in Afghanistan, in the dark of night, without consulting or informing the local Afghan commander.
It may well be that this was done to prevent panic, as President Biden has implied. But that was an ill-considered plan. Did anyone really think things would go more smoothly without Afghan cooperation?
The “Saigon in Kabul” scenes will inoculate the Administration against any further withdrawals, at least until a second Biden term. There will of course be force adjustments for operational reasons, some of them potentially major, like getting the American aircraft out of Al Udeid in Qatar. They are exposed to Iranian missiles and will need to be moved if there are going to be hostilities, or even the threat of hostilities, with Tehran. I wouldn’t mind seeing fewer US troops committed in autocracies like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, but those would need to be carefully considered and well-executed. We may not like their style of governance, but replacements could be worse. I would expect no major drawdowns in places like Iraq, Kosovo, Cuba (Guantanamo), Japan, South Korea, or Europe, unless they are negotiated and agreed with the local authorities.
The only major US commitment under discussion in Washington these days is to Taiwan. China is growing in military strength. Taiwanese, watching Hong Kong and Xinjiang, are less interested in reunification and increasingly interested in independence. It is no longer as clear as it once was that the US has both the means and the will to defend against a Chinese attack, even if it is eminently clear the Taiwanese would make a takeover difficult for Beijing. But there are no deployed American ground forces in Taiwan, so no question of withdrawal. I assume the US Navy will continue to make its presence felt in Western Pacific and seek to improve its posture in defending the first island chain.
It has been clear for two decades that the US does not want to be the world’s policeman, patroling worldwide. I doubt Americans even want to serve as the world’s fireman, reacting to conflagrations as a first responder. The arguments for retrenchment are strong. But the consequences of withdrawal, especially when unilateral, can be catastrophic. I hope we’ve learned that much.
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Peace Picks | July 12-16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Views from the Hill: A Conversation with Rep. Tom Malinowski | July 12, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host Congressman Tom Malinowski in a conversation moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Gerald Feierstein. Congressman Malinowski will begin with remarks on the Biden administration’s approach to key Middle East challenges, including its efforts to elevate human rights into long-standing partnerships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, how to jumpstart negotiations with Iran, and how to build on the recent normalizations with Israel.
How is Congress thinking about the new administration’s handoff with legacies of the Trump administration including blank checks on human rights, no-questions-asked weapons sales, and the Abraham Accords? How do the Biden administration’s commitments to prioritizing human rights stand up in the Middle East? What’s behind the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic engagements?
Speakers:
Rep. Tom Malinowski
US Congressman, 7th District of New Jersey
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feirstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
- The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter | July 12, 2021 | 4:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Pulitzer-winning historian Bird (The Good Spy) discerns much positive achievement in Carter’s one-term presidency, including airline deregulation that made flying cheap; prescient energy policies that boosted domestic energy supplies and solar power; human rights initiatives…and the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement… Bird skillfully paints Carter as a mix of genuine idealism and “clear-eyed ruthlessness” behind a folksy facade, and shrewdly analyzes the forces of stagflation, deindustrialization, and U.S. imperial decline—capped by the Iran hostage crisis—that hobbled him. The result is a lucid, penetrating portrait that should spur reconsideration of Carter’s much-maligned presidency.
Speakers:
Kai Bird
Former Fellow; Director of the Leon Levy Center for Biography at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen
Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University, Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association
- A Conversation with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | July 13, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala has been chosen to lead the WTO at one of the most challenging moments in the history of the institution. After navigating tariff disputes and trade wars in 2018 and 2019, the WTO is now at the center of helping restart the engine of global trade. As vaccination efforts continue, countries are looking to see how the WTO will address critical issues including vaccine nationalism and supply chain bottlenecks. For a historic moment, the member nations of the WTO made a historic selection. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and first African to lead the organization. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala will join the Council for a candid conversation on the WTO’s priorities and her vision for 2021 and beyond. What role should intellectual property play in promoting equitable vaccine distribution? How can citizens left behind by the forces of global trade over the past several decades be supported? These are just some of the many challenges facing the WTO.
Speakers:
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Director-General World Trade Organization
Frederick Kempe (moderator)
President and CEO, The Atlantic Council
- Book Launch: A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States | July 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
Free zones are common features of Gulf Arab states and their economies, but these trade and investment hubs are often understood only in a very narrow sense. Free zones sit at the nexus of some of the region’s most contentious political economy issues: foreign ownership, expatriate labor, and taxes and other commercial fees. Established entities like the Jebel Ali Free Zones have significantly improved Dubai’s commercial reputation, while nascent and aspirational megaprojects – from Saudi Arabia’s Neom to Kuwait’s Silk City – incorporate free zone characteristics. The UAE’s sprawling free zone system continues to expand, and newer leaders, such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, appear committed to advance free zone-led development projects.
How have free zones around the Gulf contributed to economic diversification, the strengthening of the private sector, and employment creation? Are foreign ownership reforms, workforce nationalization initiatives, and new taxes and fees threatening to diminish incentives that free zones offer prospective investors? What role do free zones play in guarding against illicit financial flows? And how do free zones feature in diplomatic relations and the opening of new markets, from Israel to China?
Speakers:
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman
President, AGSIW
Robert Mogielnicki
Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Ziad Daoud
Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Sanam Vakil
Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House
- Building Faster to Achieve Net-Zero | July 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires building clean infrastructure at a significantly faster pace than we are currently able to site, permit, and approve infrastructure projects. Absent dramatic improvement, important projects and new technologies will sit on the sidelines and achieving net-zero by 2050 will be impossible. The Bipartisan Policy Center’s Smarter, Cleaner, Faster Infrastructure Task Force released 23 federal policy recommendations to accelerate the deployment of clean infrastructure. Join us for a virtual discussion in this second of a joint event series with Aspen Institute’s Energy & Environment Program on building faster to decarbonize our economy.
Speakers:
Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL)
United States House of Representatives
Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND)
United States House of Representatives
Bobby Jindal
Former Governor of Louisiana
- Saudi Arabia: Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges | July 14, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its July 2021 Article IV Consultation. This webinar will address the report in the context of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy and assess the government’s policy response. With lasting effects from the pandemic and lower oil prices through early 2021, fiscal pressure increased and heightened the pace of some economic reform. As the non-oil economy begins to recover, the Saudi government is faced with immediate policy challenges and the longer-term challenge of diversification away from oil reliance.
hat fiscal policy challenges has the volatility in the oil market created? How well are reforms meeting the need to generate more jobs for Saudi nationals in the private sector? How has the trajectory of foreign direct investment flows impacted the transformation of the Saudi economy?
Speakers:
Faris Al-Sulayman
Research fellow, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tim Callen
Assistant director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- Tokyo and the Long Game for the Olympics | July 14, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Having postponed the Games by a year as a result of the global pandemic, Tokyo will be hosting the Summer Olympics later this month. Although the worst of the spread of COVID may appear to be over in some parts of the world, concerns about the risks of hosting the Games continue to persist. It has also led to discussions worldwide about the future of the Olympic Games and prospects for hosting massive sporting events. Join us for a discussion on how the Olympics have shaped the political dynamics within Japan, and the challenges as well as opportunities for Japan becoming the first country to host the Games during a pandemic.
Speakers:
Jules Boykoff
Professor and Politics and Government Chair, Pacific University
Heather Dichter
Associate Professor, De Montfort University School of Humanities
Yuhei Inoue
Reader, Sports Management, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School
Shihoko Goto (moderator)
Deputy Director for Geoeconomics and Senior Associate for Northeast Asia, Asia Program, The Wilson Center
- Cybersecurity on the Final Frontier: Protecting Our Critical Space Assets from Cyber Threats | July 14, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Our overwhelming reliance on space technology puts us in a precarious position. Like any other increasingly digitized critical infrastructure, satellites and other space-based assets are vulnerable to cyberattacks. These concerns are no longer merely hypothetical and, if not mitigated, could interfere with the space-enabled technology we take for granted in our day-to-day lives as well as national security and global economic development broadly.
This event will offer expert insights into understanding and navigating the increasingly contested cyber threat landscape in space, including threat vectors unique to a space cyber attack, and high-level drivers necessary for hardening our critical space systems.
Speakers:
Meg King
Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
Jamie M. Morin
Executive Director of the Center for Space Policy and Strategy, the Aerospace Corporation
Theresa Hitchens (moderator)
Space and Air Force Reporter, Breaking Defense
Brandon Bailey (panelist)
Cybersecurity Senior Project Leader, Cyber Assessments and Research Department, the Aerospace Corporation
Prashant Doshi (panelist)
Associate Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
Erin Miller
Executive Director, Space ISAC
Ryan Speelman
Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
- The Renewal of Transatlantic Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition | July 15, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the world enters a new era of strategic competition, the transatlantic community will need to work closely to drive a new global agenda and advance a rules-based international order. China has grown more confident, and Russia more aggressive. Authoritarianism is resurgent, while democracies face critical challenges both at home and abroad. The purpose of this event is to discuss ways that the United States, Europe, and Canada can advance shared priorities and revitalize the most powerful democratic community in modern history.
Speakers:
Amb. Paula Dobriansky
Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Erik Brattberg
Director of the Europe Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ben Haddad
Director of the Europe Center, Atlantic Council
Luiza ch. Savage
Executive Director of Editorial Initiatives at Politico and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Sophia Gaston
Director, British Foreign Policy Group
Ash Jain
Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Berkshire Miller
Director & Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Bruce Jones
Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ben Roswell
President and Research Director, Canadian International Council
Maureen Boyd
Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
- Can a New U.N. Produce Peace in Yemen? | July 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
When Martin Griffiths, the outgoing United Nations special envoy to Yemen, gave his final briefing to the U.N. Security Council on June 15, he painted a “bleak picture” of stalled efforts to broker a cease-fire and initiate talks over ending the country’s 6-year civil war. Since former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed the U.N.’s first special representative to Yemen in 2011, the country has undergone a precipitous transformation, with successive envoys overseeing an unsuccessful political transition and the eruption of a civil war, with little progress toward peace.
With diplomatic circles now humming with speculation about who will replace Griffiths, what issues should be top of the new envoy’s agenda? How has the situation in Yemen changed since the appointment of the first U.N. envoy, and have mediation efforts kept pace with the evolution of the conflict? What lessons can be gleaned from the efforts of previous special envoys? And what recommendations can be made for the incoming envoy?
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Non-Resident Fellow, Middle East Institute
Peter Salisbury
Senior Analyst, Yemen, Crisis Group
Gregory D. Johnsen
Former Member, U.N. Panel of Experts on Yemen
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