Tag: Saudi Arabia

Stevenson’s army, September 19

The death of Justice Ginsburg will confront the Senate with the task of choosing a successor. While the end to possible filibusters of such nominations makes it likely that Leader McConnell will be able to get approval of the president’s nominee before Thanksgiving, you can expect contentious debate, clashing Constitutional arguments, and parliamentary maneuvers. This CRS report has good background on the process. But note this historical point: Before 1916, the Judiciary Committee considered Supreme Court nominations behind closed doors. Thus, until that year, there are no entries in the “Public hearing date(s)” column. Rather, committee sessions on Court nominations typically were limited to committee members discussing and voting on a nominee in executive session, without hearing testimony from outside witnesses. In 1916, for the first time, the committee held open confirmation hearings on a Supreme Court nomination—that of Louis D. Brandeis to be an Associate Justice—at which outside witnesses (but not the nominee) testified. More days of public hearings (19) were held on the Brandeis nomination than on any Supreme Court nomination since. The Brandeis hearings, however, did not set immediately into place a new policy of open confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominations, since each of the next six nominations (during the years 1916 to 1923) was either considered directly by the Senate, without referral to the Judiciary Committee, or was acted on by the committee without the holding of confirmation hearings.
From 1925 to 1946, public confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominations became the more common, if not invariable, practice of the Judiciary Committee. In 1925, Harlan F. Stone became the first Supreme Court nominee to appear in person and testify at his confirmation hearings. During the next two decades, the Stone nomination was one of 11 Court nominations that received public confirmation hearings before either the full Judiciary Committee or a Judiciary subcommittee, while five other nominations did not receive public hearings. One of the five nominees not receiving a public confirmation hearing was Senator James F. Byrnes, whose nomination in 1941, as noted earlier, was considered directly by the Senate without referral to the Judiciary Committee. From the first Supreme Court appointments in 1789 to 2017, Presidents have made 162 nominations to the Court. Table 1 shows, in the “Final action by Senate or President” column, that the Senate confirmed 125 of these nominations, or roughly three-fourths. Of the 37 nominations that were not confirmed, 11 were rejected by the Senate (all in roll-call votes), 11 were withdrawn by the President, and 15 lapsed at the end of a session of Congress without a Senate vote cast on whether to confirm. The 37 nominations not confirmed by the Senate represented 32 individuals, some of whom were nominated more than once. Six individuals whose initial nominations were not confirmed were later renominated and confirmed for positions on the Court.

WSJ says the Saudi Royal Family is divided over policy toward Israel.
The other day I sent a story about how rich the Taliban is. WSJ today says ISIS is also flush with cash.
A think tank study says the Intelligence Community doesn’t really know what its customers want.
A Columbia law prof uses the occasion of the dedication of the memorial to Dwight Eisenhower on the National Mall to reflect on Ike’s view of war powers.
I think Eisenhower should be praised for insisting on congressional approval of major military actions.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 13

– Axios has a great piece listing voting rules and deadlines for all states.
– Defense News reports how key members of Congress have blocked arms sales to Turkey through their informal powers.
– Both Kori Schake and Fred Kaplan  criticize the Nagl-Yingling letter urging CJCS Milley to prevent Trump from challenging an electoral defeat. I agree with the criticism.
– To try to get UNSC approval of Iran sanctions, US has cut its draft resolution from 35 paragraphs to four.
– SAIS honor grad Akshai Vikram is key author of report on US-Russia nuclear arms race.
– HuffPost says Trump has basically stopped taking intelligence reports.
– Politico has unredacted copy of State IG report on Pompeo and arms sales. Note: it’s “Sensitive But Unclassified”.
– WSJ says Xi is shifting Chinese economy inward.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 12

– Politico explains Kamala Harris’ clever campaign for the VP slot.
– State IG report clears Pompeo on arms sales action, but redacted sections raise doubts.
-Berkeley prof sees real strategy in administration moves on technology & China.
– Law prof hits Supreme Court’s “shadow docket.”
Census count matters to state and local governments.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 7

So I’m back from a few days by a river, relaxing and canoeing. What did I miss?
– The Saudis may be developing nuclear capability.
CIA isn’t helping GOP investigation of the Bidens. But the real issue it seems to me is to preserve exclusive responsiveness to the intelligence committees.

– Congress may block Trump drone sale policy.
Provocative US official’s visit to Taiwan.
We are trying to get Syrian oil.
– Esper may move US troops from Germany to Romania, Baltics, Poland.
– New book by CNN reporter says Pentagon withheld military options from Trump.
– Fred Kaplan has a good piece on Hiroshima,
AEI’s Norm Ornstein laments changes in the GOP over the decades.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Biden will have his hands full

Time for a summer update on President Trump’s diplomatic initiatives, more or less in his priority order:

  1. Trade with China: importing less than half of what is called for in the “first phase” agreement.
  2. Re-initiating nuclear talks with Iran: Trump said more than a year ago he would talk with no pre-conditions. Tehran won’t, despite “maximum pressure.” Iran wants sanctions eased first.
  3. Getting rid of North Korea’s nuclear weapons: Kim Jong-un has in effect said “no.”
  4. Ending the war in Afghanistan: The withdrawal is proceeding, but progress in intra-Afghan talks is minimal.
  5. Removal of Venezuelan President Maduro: He has weathered the challenge and remains firmly in power.
  6. South China Sea: The US has rejected China’s sovereignty claim but is doing nothing about its military outposts.
  7. Helping Ukraine force the Russians out of Donbas: The Administration has provided lethal weapons to no avail.
  8. Reducing Saudi oil production to jack up world prices: Saudi production is down, but world prices are still in a trough.
  9. Initiating a democratic transition in Syria: Congress has beefed up sanctions, but Trump can’t even begin to get Assad out.
  10. “Deal of the century”: Not going anywhere but into the shredder. Even Israeli annexation of part of the West Bank is blocked.

This skips a lot. For example:

  • the President telling Chinese President Xi that it was fine to put (Muslim) Uighurs into concentration camps,
  • withdrawing from the Paris Climate accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and several favorable arms control agreements with Russia,
  • moving US troops out of Germany to the delight of Moscow,
  • failing to counter Russian bounties for Taliban who kill US soldiers in Afghanistan,
  • saying the right things about Hong Kong and withdrawing its trade preferences, but with not discernible impact,
  • not responding to foreign initiatives to undermine the US elections, and
  • withdrawing from the World Health Organization in the midst of a pandemic.

American foreign policy has rarely been so ineffectual, never mind whether the priorities are right. The Administration doesn’t think past its own next move. The President is incapable of it and won’t let others do it for him. He behaves as if the adversary has no options. Much of what the Administration does is for show, without considering however how most of the rest of the world sees the situation. The only customers for this foreign policy are the domestic audience of China hawks, Russia doves, oil and coal producers, and evangelical Christians, along with President Putin, Prime Minister Netanyahu and a few other would-be autocrats around the world.

Getting out of the foreign policy hole Trump has dug will be a big challenge. President Biden, if there ever is one, will have his hands full even if he pays attention only to the first three of the items above. Let’s hope he can somehow save us from the consequences of four dreadful years.

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Stevenson’s army, June 22

– While the national security adviser writes in WSJ that “no formal announcement has been made,” he then explains that US troops will leave Germany and why.
-NYT explains the lapses in vetting that allowed the Saudi pilot to kill in Pensacola.
— NYT also explains how Amb. Grenell seized control of Kosovo policy.
-Bolton blames many policies on “the split between Trump and Trump.”
Bolton has more harsh words in ABC interview. Transcript here.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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