Tag: Saudi Arabia
Stevenson’s army, April 6
This is not a “Pearl Harbor moment” or another 9/11; those were traumatic surprises. This is a monster category 5+ storm we saw inching toward America and we failed to take the long-prescribed defensive measures.
Multiple stories about Capt. Crozier: David Ignatius first reported that Acting NavSec Modly relieved Crozier of command to preempt a demand for that action by President Trump. Today he gives Modly’s side of the story — that he lost confidence in Crozier. SecDef Esper calls this good accountability. NYT has more, also reporting Crozier has the coronavirus.
Jonathan Swan learned of a Navarro-Fauci shouting match.
In other news, Trump is threatening new tariffs against Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil…
Bill Burns has some post-pandemic strategic advice.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 7
The Saudi crown prince has arrested his chief rivals and charged them with treason.
Pres. Trump has named Cong. Mark Meadows as his new chief of staff. [Not “acting”]
Coronavirus blame game: countries are blaming their rivals for the epidemic.
WaPo says CIA & NSA clashed over the purchased of a Swiss crypto machine company.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 26
– WSJ notes the return and buildup of US forces in Saudi Arabia.
– Some anti-JCPOA Senators are discussing a new deal with Iran.
– NYT explains why US & India failed to reach a trade deal this week.
– Australia warns of foreign spy threat.
– Graham Allison says US should prune some of its alliances.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Rivals who de-escalate
Kim Ghattas’ new book, Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Collective Memory in the Middle East, served as the centerpiece for a Carnegie Endowment of International Peace event on February 5. David Ignatius, a foreign affairs columnist for the Washington Post and author of eight spy novels, moderated the discussion about Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Forty Year Rivalry with Ghattas, author and Foreign Policy columnist.
Ghattas places her observations of the destruction of culture and artifacts that occurred during ISIS rampages in a broader context of other nearby regimes’ that profess puritanical thinking and try to control culture. This led her to examine a pivotal year in the Middle East, 1979. Ghattas argues that the Islamic Revolution served as the fulcrum for the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry. She underlines that prior to the Revolution, Iran and Saudi Arabia were seen as the two pillars of the Middle East often working towards containing socialism and communism. But post-Revolution, the two nations became great rivals.
Ghattas spoke about three transformative events from 1979:
- The Rippling Effects of the Iranian Revolution: Instead of discussing the specifics of the Iranian Revolution inside Iran, Ghattas spoke on the realities of 1979 inside the Kingdom, explicitly the Siege of Mecca. While there remains little evidence that the Siege was directly inspired by Iran, it can be extrapolated that the effects of the Revolution rippled through to Mecca for the two weeks following November 20, 1979. Both the Revolution and the Siege incorporated conservative applications of Sharia law. Ghattas notes that before these events, Saudi Arabia was on a more progressive path, with the opening of movie theaters and increased liberties for women. Post-Siege and Revolution, the regime became more and more repressive.
- The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Soviet invasion led to the creation of the Mujahideen, supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan (alongside the CIA). The Kingdom and Pakistan used the situation to promote the idea of jihad to defend the faith from the ‘faithless communists.’ Ghattas and Ignatius both noted that Khashoggi was embedded and reporting in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion. Khashoggi reported that the most radical fighting groups were receiving the most money and support from Saudi clerics. Khashoggi spoke out against Prince (now King) Salman, alleging that he privileged Salafists.
- Disappearance of Musa al-Sadr: al-Sadr was a Shia leader who was living in Lebanon. Ghattas alleged that he had spoken with the Shah and warned him of Khomeini’s potential. Al-Sadr traveled to Libya in 1978 and never returned. It is widely understood that he would have posed a threat to Khomeini during the ascent to power or during the post-Shah period.
After focusing on 1979, Ghattas shifted to discuss the current climate in Iran, 40 years post-Revolution. Iran is still in a period of major protests, which have occurred in 2009, 2017, 2018, 2019, and today, in 2020. The Iranian public is continuing to speak out against the government. Despite this, there is no sign of the regime giving up or falling any time soon.
Ghattas ended with the comment that neither Iran or Saudi Arabia wants to go to war with the other. While they continue to be hostile rivals, they often find ways through talks and third parties to de-escalate. The lack of response to the drone strike against two Saudi oil processing facilities in September 2019 serves as an example of the Kingdom and Iran’s ability to de-escalate.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
What is fueling MENA fires
“Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting US national security interests in jeopardy.”
On January 27, the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East” at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The discussion included three speakers: Bassima Alghussein, the CEO of Alghussein Global Strategies and a former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor, Jeff Stacey, a national security and global development consultant, contributor to the New York Times, and former State Department official, and Edward P. Joseph, a broadcast and print commentator, US foreign policy professional, and veteran. The discussion was moderated by Joel Rubin, a national security, foreign policy, and congressional expert, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, and the current Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign.
Saudi Arabia
Alghussein claims that $8 billion in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have exposed three facts:
- The weapons fell into the wrong hands because they were captured by the Houthis in Yemen.
- Saudi Arabia conducts human rights violations with US weapons in Yemen.
- US arms sales to Saudi Arabia fuel an arms race between the Saudis and the Iranians.
Alghussein believes that arm sales without restriction may threaten US interests. When the Trump administration enabled Riyadh’s blockade against Qatar, Doha moved closer to Tehran without fulfilling any Saudi demands.
Iran
Joseph is more concerned with Iran’s behavior. Its nuclear program is based more on internal motives than external fears. The Saudis have shown restraint. They didn’t retaliate when the Iranians attacked oil facilities in September. If Iran can develop a nuclear program based on fears of Israeli strikes, why can’t Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan develop their own nuclear programs? Joseph believes it is Iran that creates its own security risks by taking a provocative position.
Stacey reminded that Iran favored the JCPOA, which brought it with economic and diplomatic benefits. He suggested that the US should remove sanctions against Iran, which constrain moderates in the parliament. The assassination of Soleimani was unwise and unjustified because it strengthened Iranian political hardliners. He noted different reactions to the assassinations of Soleimani and al Muhandis between Iraq and Iran. Things are still under control in Iraq, which has maintained strategic relations with the US. In Iran, the killing of Soleimani and the downing of a Ukrainian airliner have aroused anti-regime protests and galvanized cries of “death to the dictators.”
Libya
Joseph emphasized the complexity of the conflict in Libya, which includes regional, ideological, identity, and tribal factors as well as external drivers. Russia and Turkey intended to establish an agreement similar to the Astana process for Syria by gathering domestic and external oppositions in Moscow earlier this month. That failed, because the Government of National Accord sought a ceasefire, but General Haftar did not.
The Libya summit January 19 in Berlin succeeded in bringing outside actors and Libyan rivals together. Joseph points out that the Berlin Summit was subsequent to previous Italy-Libya and France-Libya meetings. While Italy aims to maintain control over its former colony and ensure Libya’s security, France has competing economic interests. Italy and France will continue to compete in Libya.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 15
Although Wolf Blitzer and fellow moderators devoted the first hour of the Democratic presidential candidate debate to foreign policy, political experts at a CFR panel I attended Tuesday said foreign policy hardly ever matters in US elections unless there is an active shooting war with significant American casualties. Even trade isn’t making a difference with voters these days, they said. Most interesting to me was Charlie Cook’s observation that unless Biden is the clear leader after Iowa and NH, Mike Bloomberg is likely to shoot to the front on Super Tuesday and stands a good chance of winning the nomination even in a brokered convention.
Sen. Kaine [D-Va] seems to have the votes for a war powers restriction on President Trump regarding Iran. The Hill has the best story of the successful negotiations with Republicans, but the parliamentary snafu that postpones debate until next week.
Washington Examiner has a story based on SAIS prof Jim Mann’s new book about the Cheney-Powell feud over foreign policy in the Bush 43 administration.
Fred Kaplan dissects administration Iran policy, sees regime change as a delusion.
A CFR writer says Huawei blacklist may backfire.
Vox disputes Trump claim about Saudi contributions to US military.
WSJ says US threatens cut in military aid to Iraq if US troops are forced to leave.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
