Tag: Saudi Arabia
Iran is winning this round
The big news of the day is that Tehran will maintain its commitment to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections even though it will no longer be bound by the operational limits in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal). Why would it do that?
Because it is smart. There are several benefits:
- It will give the Europeans, Russians, and Chinese reason not to withdraw from the nuclear deal, thus keeping them split from the Americans;
- It will make it clear to the international community how far they are willing to go in preparing the materials needed for nuclear weapons, and at what point they are prepared to stop if given some sanctions relief;
- It will give them the moral high ground while possibly continuing clandestine nuclear weapons design, much of which can be done by computers without nuclear materials.
Washington meanwhile is losing on several fronts. It has had to suspend anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria, its claims of an imminent attack on US targets are less than credible, there are credible claims that Soleimani was carrying in Baghdad a peace overture to Saudi Arabia, and pressure to remove US forces from Iraq, or at least from Arab-controlled Iraq, is growing. The assassination of Soleimani has tamped down the anti-Iranian demonstrations in Iraq and has quieted the demonstrations against the Islamic Republic inside Iran as well. Even Riyadh is asking Washington to tone it down.
The Republican wizkids like Senator Rubio are speculating about US support for Kurdistan’s secession from Iraq, so that the American troops could stay there. But he forgets: Kurdistan has lost control of Kirkuk, without which its oil revenue is nowhere near sufficient to maintain it as an independent state, not to mention Turkey’s, Syria’s, and Iran’s reactions as well as China’s and Russia’s. Does Marco want the US to go to war to restore Kirkuk to Kurdistan’s control?
Donald Trump likes to upset the apple cart and create crisis, then pretend to resolve it, as he has done with the trade wars. This one won’t be an easy pretense. He has made Americans far less safe not only from Iranian attacks but also from ISIS and Al Qaeda, which are no doubt enjoying the relief. The only Iranians endangered so far other than Soleimani are Iranian-Americans, who are reportedly being stopped at our borders in droves and sent to secondary interrogation. I’ve been there and done that–it is not fatal–but it helps our enemies to claim that America only believes in equal rights for non-immigrant white people, which is pretty much the case for this Administration.
Hillary Clinton was correct when she said Donald Trump did not have the temperament to be president. Republicans in the Senate know that as well as anyone else. There is a good chance killing Soleimani will hurt Trump’s chances for re-election as well as Republican hopes of maintaining their majority in the Senate. It is high time they step up and provide the conditions for a serious and fair trial on the impeachment charges. John Bolton’s new-found willingness to testify if subpoened provides a golden opportunity. It would be truly ironic if Bolton and the Iranians were to be the causes of Trump’s undoing.
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Stevenson’s army, December 23
As we all know, little of significance ever happens between December 23 and January 2. But there are still interesting things to read.
-Did you know [I didn’t] that the OSS had a design bureau that had a major impact on postwar design of things like the UN logo, the WH Situation Room, and molded chairs?
– ProPublica analysis says poor software contributed to the USS McCain’s collision.
– More items buried in the NDAA are surfacing: a study about Djibouti required; withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty blocked.
– Case closed. Saudi courts sentence 5 underlings to death because of the Khashoggi murder. Senior officials exonerated.
– FP says the administration is planning to create a special envoy and task force for the Sahel.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 20
– NYT has the tick tock on how Pelosi and Lighthizer got to Yes on the USMCA trade deal with labor support.
– WaPo shows sequence of Trump’s belief in Ukraine interference in 2016. Former Trump officials link it to Putin’s influence.
– There’s still hope: the special House committee on modernization urges specific reforms. There’s their release.
BTW: both Houses have adjourned until January.
– India cracks down with detentions and internet suspension.
– A Tufts prof says cybersecurity experts are being driven out of government.
– One of the most significant unreported [other than FT] stories is this: China is set to open enough new coal-fired plants to equal Europe’s current capacity.
PS: SecState Pompeo has lunch scheduled today with Trump. Will he finally announce his plan to return to Kansas and run for Senate?
And a supplement:
I found several more items worthy of your weekend time.
– Ward Just has died. He was an outstanding WaPo reporter from Vietnam until being wounded. He then turned to fiction, and wrote some of the most realistic Washington novels I’ve ever read. [Only Thomas Mallon comes close.] His political characters are true and complex.
– The Vietnam draft lottery spawned decades of valuable scientific research because it produced truly random samples for later study. Some of the vet/nonvet results are deeply troubling. [FYI, I lucked out: my birthday was 312 in the lottery.]
-CFR has its latest report on what to worry about in 2020. [We’ll read this in the spring course.]
– Reuters says Saudi oil fields attack came from the north, thus likely Iran.
– Atlantic Council has a good new report urging “managed competition” with China, with justifiable heavy emphasis on economic issues like R&D and trade.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 17
Last week I noted how many foreign policy matters are in the NDAA. Today, look at some of the extraneous measures added to the two omnibus appropriations bills. Lesson: must-pass bills turn into Christmas trees.
Saudi Arabia is making nice toward Iran, with geopolitical consequences.
The anti-Muslim citizenship bill in India is sparking widespread protests.
Morale is improving at State — except among those closest to Pompeo.
A Texas law professor has found, in the new NDAA, a provision codifying a requirement for notification of the Armed Services Committees when significant offensive cyber operations are conducted. Hooray! For several years I have been calling for a “Title 60” provision modeled after the Hughes-Ryan provision for CIA covert actions to deal with offensive cyber operations and lethal drone strikes. This is a welcome development.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army December 5 and 6
December 6
– DIA has done a big unclassified report on Iran’s military power.
– A law firm has done a good summary of recent sanctions policy.
– FP says State is excluding officials from information on senior officials’ phone calls.
-David Ignatius says State blocked a contract to train Saudi intelligence.
December 5
Something’s going on. I don’t know whether there has been a genuine increase in the threat from Iran or whether the administration is creating a pretext for military action in the region. Here are the dots that seem to connect: US officials are now revealing that Iran has secretly moved short range ballistic missiles into Iraq. Despite public denials, Pentagon reporters hear that the military wants to send an additional 14,000 US troops to the Middle East [but no details on location or types]. SecState Pompeo had an urgently scheduled meeting with IsraeliPM Netanyahu, where the key topic was said to be Iran. Under Secretary Rood made an even more explicit warning of Iranian military action.
Meanwhile, a former senior intelligence official says Trump often disputes what IC briefers tell him.
Kim Jong-un also seems to be ratcheting up his threats to change policy at the New Year.
Reuters says Jared Kushner is now playing a big role in China trade talks.
NYT study says US cluster munitions have caused many US friendly fire deaths.
A Syracuse professor burns a straw man in a WSJ op-ed. He decries any value in the “interagency process” because the president is in charge of foreign policy. Of course the president is the ultimate authority. But wise and successful presidents over the years have used the process to vet and revise their policies, and to implement them. Many of Trump’s setbacks have come precisely because he acted impulsively or ignorance of contextual details. [See, I don’t only send things I agree with.]
As an example of this process internationally, look at the detailed official statement from the NATO summit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 21
– To me, the most significant foreign policy exchange in the Democratic presidential candidate debate was the widespread sharp criticism of Saudi Arabia. I don’t see how any of them can back off that if elected.
– Meanwhile, the US is sending more troops to Saudi Arabia.
– But DOD denies planning troop withdrawals from South Korea.
– FP article raises a concern I share — the vulnerability of US forces given advanced technology available to others.
– The docudrama about the Senate Intelligence Committee’s “torture report” opens in theaters and will stream after Thanksgiving. RollCall tells a story about how the key staffer found his way in DC through networking. Good lessons for Hill job seekers.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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