Tag: Saudi Arabia
Friday stock taking
It’s Friday, so let’s take a look at how effectively the Trump Administration has dealt with world and domestic events this week while it obsesses over impeachment:
- The North Koreans continue to launch increasingly capable ballistic missiles.
- While suffering from reimposed sanctions, Iran is defying the US and increasing uranium enrichment beyond the limits specified the nuclear deal the US withdrew from.
- The Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities has elicited no visible response from the US or Saudi Arabia, which is joining the United Arab Emirates in playing footsie with Iran.
- While failing to remove from Syria all the troops Trump said would be withdrawn, the US has allowed Turkey to take over a buffer zone along its border with Syria, leading to large-scale displacement of people there. Russia has also gained a foothold in northeastern Syria, as has the Assad regime.
- The trade war with China drags on, with the US trade deficit ballooning and Asian partners and allies doubting US commitments in the region.
- Venezuelan autocrat Maduro has survived despite American pressure, as has the Communist regime in Cuba and Evo Morales’ rule in Bolivia.
- In Europe, French President Macron is describing NATO as “brain dead” because of Trump’s lack of commitment to it and Trump’s pal UK Prime Minister Johnson is being forced into an election to try to confirm his Brexit plan, which Trump has supported.
- In the Balkans, the Administration has confused everyone with the appointment of two special envoys whose relationship to each other and to US policy is opaque.
- That’s all without even mentioning Ukraine, where State Department officials have confirmed that President Trump tried to extort an investigation of his political rivals from newly elected President Zelensky in exchange for Congressionally approved military aid.
The home front is even worse:
- A New York State Court has forced Trump into a $2 million settlement in which he has admitted improper and fraudulent use of his family foundation.
- Republicans lost the governorship in Kentucky and control of both houses of the Virginia assembly in off-year elections earlier this week. Congressional Republicans are nervous.
- President Trump’s personal lawyer affirmed that everything he did in Ukraine was to serve his client’s personal interests, a statement that confirms public assets were used for private purposes.
- The Attorney General, a stalwart defender of his boss, has declined to make a public statement supporting Trump’s claim that he did nothing wrong in his infamous phone call with President Zelensky.
- The House Democrats are piling up subpoenas that the White House is ignoring, heightening the likelihood that obstruction of Congressional oversight will be added to the impeachment charges and limiting the news to the sharp critiques of non-White House officials.
- The economy is slowing, especially in some “swing” districts vital to Trump’s hopes for a win in the electoral college in 2020, when he is sure to lose the popular vote once again, likely by a wider margin than in 2016.
I suppose it could get worse, and likely will. But it has been a long time since we’ve seen an American Administration in worse shape than this.
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The nuclear race has begun
As Iran steps up its enrichment of uranium, the harbingers are clear:
- Turkish President Erdogan is asking questions out loud about why his country doesn’t have nuclear weapons,
- Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince is making it clear the Kingdom won’t be left far behind,
- Israel is lying low with its 100 or more warheads somewhere between ready and almost ready to launch, and
- North Korea is successfully resisting American pressure to give up its dozen or so nukes, making it clear to the whole world that Washington is a toothless tiger when it comes to nuclear nonproliferation.
The nightmare many of us feared in the 1970s and 1980s of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East has begun.
The trigger was President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) and reimposition of sanctions have released Tehran from its obligations, which it is gradually and deliberately breaching. Turkey, which has long relied on the American nuclear umbrella and NATO, has cozied up to Russia–even purchasing its advanced air defense system–as relations with Washington worsened over how to deal with the Syrian Kurds. Erdogan has no doubt heard the talk about removing American nuclear weapons from Turkey and has drawn the obvious conclusion: if the American umbrella won’t protect you, get your own.
The Saudis increasingly view President Trump as unreliable, especially vis-a-vis Iran. They would be fools not to try to keep pace with the Turks in the race with Iran for nuclear weapons capability. What they can’t develop themselves, they’ll buy. The once prevalent and now quaint notion that no nuclear-savvy country would sell its crown jewels disappeared with Pakistani nuclear merchant A.Q. Khan. The Saudis can pay any price if need be.
The Middle East had gotten used to the Israeli nuclear capabilities, which have been regarded for decades as a deterrent for use only as a last resort. They play little roll in the balance of power beyond ensuring that Israel will continue to exist. The same cannot be assumed about Iranian, Turkish, and Saudi capabilities. Multi-sided games are much more complex than one- or two-sided ones. We can be thankful for the modus vivendi between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan, but it is no harbinger for a four-sided nuclear standoff in the eastern Mediterranean. And the subcontinent’s standoff may not last forever, since at least Pakistan regards nuclear weapons as useful in warfighting, not just the last resort.
We have at least a few years, perhaps even a decade, before this race reaches some sort of equilibrium. In the meanwhile, the push and shove will be made all the more dramatic by US withdrawal from the Middle East. Its interests there have declined markedly with the development of advanced oil and gas recovery technology and the continued reduction of the US economy’s dependence on energy, especially in the form of hydrocarbons.
The big challenges for American diplomacy today are to slow the Middle East nuclear arms race and build some sort of regional security structure in which the Turks, Iranians, Saudis, and ultimately Israelis can work out their differences without resort to either the proxy wars they are already engaged in or the nuclear exchanges that will all-too-soon become possible. US withdrawal from its over-exposure in the Middle East is inevitable and desirable. But the risks are colossal. Diplomacy can reduce but likely not eliminate those risks.
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Impeachment is certain, but when?
The case against President Trump is solid: obstruction of justice documented by Special Counsel Mueller, abuse of power for personal benefit by extorting judicial cooperation from Ukraine, inviting and accepting foreign campaign assistance even in public, and who knows how many financial malfeasances involving laundering money for Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes. The Democratic majority in the House will no doubt vote solidly to impeach, likely joined by a scattering of Republicans. There is no way that having opened an impeachment inquiry the Democrats can now back off, allowing Trump to run in 2020 claiming that even his opposition knows he did nothing wrong.
The only question is when. The Democrats are insisting on moving quickly, which could mean impeachment before the end of this year. I think that would be a mistake. Impeachment would then be a distant memory a year from now, negated at least in part by a quick acquittal in the Senate. The next election is going to be a referendum on Trump, no matter what else appears to be at stake. Better for the Democrats to move with all deliberate speed, piling up the evidence and making it public over the next 10 or 11 months. They could then impeach Trump without leaving enough time for a trial in the Senate, demonstrating that they are prepared to live with the verdict of the American people.
That strikes me as a much better move. Convincing the 20 Senate Republicans needed for a 2/3 majority to abandon Trump is a tall order. The Republican party is disciplined and wholly under the President’s control. But more than half the country already believes he should be impeached, and almost as many people believe he should be removed from office. Why not rely on the good judgment of the citizens, especially after another year of unveiling the many high crimes and misdemeanors Trump is guilty of?
I suppose the argument against this approach is that citizens want their representatives to deliver legislation and services, not only focus on impeaching Trump. But it should be easier to continue legislating, overseeing, and appropriating if impeachment is not on a fast track. In fact, a fast track may not be feasible, as Administration resistance to subpoenas will need to be challenged in court. It is reasonable to think that a thorough impeachment investigation will take at least another 8-10 months. Why not make a virtue of necessity?
Speaker Pelosi is the savviest politician in Washington these days. She’ll make the call on when to impeach, and for what offenses. So far, she is believed to want things to move expeditiously. That’s smart, since otherwise it could all bog down. But I won’t be surprised if she is quietly contemplating a process that lasts another year, with ample subpoenas, public hearings, and publication of more documents and text messages. It is clear to me that Trump runs several criminal enterprises. But that is still not clear to more than 40% of the population. If even a quarter of those can be convinced, defeat for Trump on November 3 next year is certain.
If Trump wins a second term, it will become impossible to impeach him again. Impeachment is an all or nothing proposition. I wouldn’t want the outcome to depend on the Senate more than on American citizens who vote.
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No smear
Read Bill Taylor. His opening statement in the House yesterday illustrates vividly why it is so important to have a professional, disciplined, and honest Foreign Service.
Bill, who was my colleague at the US Institute of Peace 10 years ago, testifies to the existence of a communications channel from President Trump to Ukrainian President Zelensky that was demanding investigations of the 2016 election and of Joe Biden’s son in exchange for freeing up military assistance and allowing Zelensky a visit to the White House. The crux of the matter is this, in Bill’s words:
The irregular policy channel was running contrary to goals of longstanding U.S. policy.
Informal channels are common and often useful in diplomacy. Bill was lucky he even knew about this one. Often they bypass the official Chief of Mission entirely. Trump is entitled to use his friends to convey messages to a foreign head of state if he likes.
But in this case the informal channel really was irregular, because it was conveying messages inconsistent with US law and policy. The Congress had provided the military assistance and the various departments of government whose assent was required had given it. Stated US policy was support for Ukraine. If Trump wanted to add conditions, he needed to tell his own Administration as well as the Congress and inform the embassy.
He failed to do that, since he knew the backlash would be gigantic. He preferred instead to use his personal lawyer and a campaign contributor now ambassador to the European Union. Rudy Giuliani and Gordon Sondland could be relied on to do Trump’s personal bidding, no matter how wrong-headed. Under instructions from the President, they were trying to use US aid to extract results that would be personally and politically beneficial to himself. Bill memorably described this as “crazy,” but it is far worse that that. It is a corrupt abuse of power.
Now the President and his minions are claiming Bill’s testimony is a “smear” because there was no quid pro quo. This is classic Trump: accusing others of doing what he is doing to them and claiming that the facts are somehow different because he says they are. Bill should wear the accusations against him with pride: he did has done the right thing and demonstrated how an honest civil servant can penetrate the fog of lies and abuse of power that surround this president.
There is more to come. Defense official Laura Cooper is talking with the House today. No doubt many intelligence officials, civil servants, and Foreign Service officers will, following Bill’s example, find the courage to speak out. There will be plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors to sort through. The big question is when Speaker Pelosi will decide that the House has enough to impeach: before the end of the year, as many are speculating, or closer to the 2020 election?
Trump has now betrayed American interests in Ukraine, Syria (by yanking US troops without proper preparation), North Korea (by ignoring missile launches), and even Saudi Arabia, where he has failed to respond to the attack on its oil production facilities. In all four places he has created openings that Russian President Putin is exploiting. There were good reasons why Putin intervened in the 2016 election in favor of Trump, who is both strikingly incompetent and beholden to Russian financing.
That is no smear. It is the sad and apparent truth.
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More diplomacy, less force
A friend asked today what I thought of the current situation in Syria. I responded:
Predictable and predicted. The Syria commitment was not sustainable. The US needs to reduce its commitments to the Middle East to a level that serves vital interests and is sustainable. It should do that carefully, using diplomacy to ensure no vacuums are left. That can’t happen with this President.
I guess that puts me at least partly in Elizabeth Warren’s camp and opposed to Josh Rogin, who is a fine journalist but far more of an enthusiast for US engagement in the Middle East than I am.
Let me recount the reasons:
- The US is far less dependent on oil, including oil from the Middle East, than once it was.
- The spread of US unconventional production technology has made it difficult for oil prices to top $60/barrel for long. That is a price the US and world economy can and does tolerate easily.
- Other countries should, as Presidents Trump and Obama have suggested, bear more of the burden of protecting Middle East oil supplies, in particular the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans since they take most of the oil coming through the strait of Hormuz.
- Middle East producers should be doing more to build pipelines that circumvent Hormuz, and consumers (especially India and China) should be building strategic oil stocks for use in a supply disruption.
- American allies in the Middle East should, after many billions in US arms sales, mainly protect themselves. Israel does already. The Saudis and Emiratis as well as the Qataris should too. Needless to say, the Turks will have to after this latest brush with the US.
- Many American bases in the Middle East are too close to Iran to serve well in wartime. They will need to be evacuated if the balloon ever goes up. Better to get them out sooner rather than later.
- If you are still worried about Middle East terrorism, there is no reason to believe that the drone wars have done anything to reduce it. To the contrary, US presence in the region makes us a prime target.
- The right answer to terrorism is better governance, not drones. Find the people who are serious about improved governance and support them, not the thieves and oppressors who rule in much of the Middle East.
- If you want to counter Russian influence in the Middle East, clearly an unsustainable military presence is not the solution. Syria is going to be a big burden on Moscow. Let them deal with it.
- If you are worried about Iran, get back into the nuclear deal (aka JCPOA) as quickly as possible and try to negotiate an extension. The only serious complaint I am hearing from anyone about the JCPOA is that it expires.
The American drawdown from the Middle East should not be precipitous. It should be cautious and leave no power vacuums. That is what diplomacy is for: we need to be working on regional security arrangements that can guarantee that no one’s interests will be ignored and reasonable compromises will prevail. That effort will require serious attention to threat perceptions, regional trade and infrastructure, people-to-people relations, and traditional conflict management mechanisms in the region. Yes, more diplomacy, less force, and a lot of hard work and commonsense.
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Stevenson’s army, October 15
The Trump administration says it wants a cease-fire in northern Syria. Treasury announced sanctions against 3 ministries and higher tariffs on Turkish steel. VP Pence is supposed to go to Ankara sometime soon to talk about a cease-fire. Sen. Graham and Speaker Pelosi have talked about a joint measure to punish Turkey. We don’t know what the US and Turkish leaders said in their Monday phone call, but there is at least one report that Erdogan promised not to attack the Kurdish stronghold of Kobani.
Cease-fires don’t solve problems; at best they just turn them to a simmer. We can’t go back to the status quo ante. Do we want to keep Turkey as an ally? What about our nuclear weapons there? Will Trump pull remaining US forces out of Iraq and Afghanistan? Whatever the president decides, will there be a coordinated interagency effort to carry it out?
How did we get here? David Sanger says Trump rejected the advice of his national security officials and acted on gut instinct.
Meanwhile, the Russians have moved in, patrolling between Turkish and Kurdish forces. [And Putin was lavishly treated in a visit to Saudi Arabia]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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