Tag: Saudi Arabia

Peace Picks April 11-15

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 10, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Egypt’s Former Foreign Minister on Regional Statecraft and Domestic Reform | Tuesday, April 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Nabil Fahmy, former foreign minister of Egypt, for a discussion about Egypt’s political and socioeconomic challenges and its role in regional politics and stability. Egypt’s government is under pressure to deliver economic development, good governance, and increased security in light of growing terrorist threats. These challenges come amid growing regional tensions- from the conflict in Syria to the war in Yemen. How can the state better meet its domestic objectives and how can Egypt play an effective role in brokering greater Middle East stability?
  1. The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Obama Doctrine | Tuesday, April 12th | 1:00-3:30 | Middle East Policy Council | Email info@mepc.org to RSVP | Our panel will address Jeffrey Goldberg‘s essay, “The Obama Doctrine,” and how it impacts U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Please RSVP promptly for limited space. Speakers include James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Alireza Nader, Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation, and Fahad Nazer, Senior Political Analyst, JTG, Inc. and Non-Resident Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The moderator will be Richard Schmierer, Former Ambassador to Oman and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Middle East Policy Council.
  1. The Fourth Annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture: The Politics of Memory in East Asia | Tuesday, April 12th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II last year brought another round of contentious memory politics in East Asia. Despite the seeming sameness of the debates, in fact the practices and norms of public memory have substantially altered since the end of the war, creating what speaker Carol Gluck calls a “global memory culture.” Changes in the law, politics, society, criteria of knowledge, and concepts of responsibility have transformed our understanding of what it means to do justice to the past.  How then do these changes relate to the politics of memory in East Asia today? Carol Gluck, George Sansom Professor of History at Columbia University, will speak.
  1. Outlook for Security and Integration of Albania and the Western Balkans | Wednesday, April 13th | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the collapse of the communist regime more than two decades ago, Albania has undergone significant political, economic, and social reforms. Albania became a NATO member in 2009, a European Union (EU) candidate country in 2014, and signed a declaration of strategic partnership with the United States in 2015. Given the increasingly fragmented climate among EU member states over Europe’s capacity to overcome current challenges, the EU’s enlargement agenda has lost momentum. Meanwhile, instability in the Western Balkans has been fueled by unprecedented waves of refugees, and political and economic uncertainty to the South and East. As Prime Minister, H.E. Edi Rama plays a significant role in directing the path for Albania in EU accession negotiations and regional cooperation, particularly through the Berlin Process framework of annual summits in the Western Balkans. In his visit to Washington, DC, Prime Minister Rama will address Albania’s security priorities and goals for the NATO Warsaw Summit, and provide views on Albania’s reform progress.
  1. Supporting Tunisia’s Imperiled Transition | Thursday, April 14th | 8:30-12:15 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Tunisia remains the Arab Awakening’s last best hope. Its political transition is as remarkable as it is fragile—imperiled by both security challenges and significant socioeconomic obstacles. Join us for a discussion of how Tunisia and its international partners can forge a new and more constructive dynamic and reverse the country’s recent troubling trajectory. This event will launch a new Carnegie report entitled Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership With Tunisia. Panels and panelists may be found here.
  1. Turkey, its neighborhood, and the international order | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Increasingly, there are concerns about the direction of Turkey’s politics, economy, security, and foreign policy. Debate is growing about the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, and its commitment to democratic norms is being questioned. Moreover, against the backdrop of the chaos in the region, its ability to maintain peace and order is hindered. These difficulties coincide with a larger trend in which the global economy remains fragile, European integration is fracturing, and international governance seems under duress. The spill-over from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq has precipitated a refugee crisis of historic scale, testing the resolve, unity, and values of the West. Will these challenges prove pivotal in reshaping the international system? Will these trials ultimately compel the West to formulate an effective collective response? Will Turkey prove to be an asset or a liability for regional security and order? On April 14, the Turkey Project of the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host a discussion to assess Turkey’s strategic orientation amid the ever-changing international order. Panelists will include Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan of the University of Maryland, and Francis Riccardone of the Atlantic Council. Cansen Başaran-Symes, president of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD) will make introductory remarks. Turkey Project Director and TÜSİAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
  1. From ISIS to Declining Oil Prices: Qubad Talabani on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Challenges | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Opening remarks will be made by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace. H.E. Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, will speak. Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center, will moderate. Please join us on April 14 for a discussion with Qubad Talabani, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG). Long an island of stability in a Middle East marked by conflict, the Kurdish region of Iraq now faces a perfect storm. Its finances have been severely affected by the dramatic decline in the price of oil, its main source of revenue. The KRG also faces a constitutional crisis because President Masoud Barzani’s term has ended without the Kurdish political parties finding a definitive way forward or agreement on succession. And the KRG’s Peshmerga military force is engaged with the United States and its allies in an extended offensive to rout the self-declared Islamic State extremist group and liberate the nearby city of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest. Amidst all of this, President Barzani also has indicated that the KRG will hold a referendum in 2016 on whether the region should seek independence from Iraq.
  1. A New Economic Growth Strategy for Pakistan: A Conversation with Pakistani Finance Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar | Thursday, April 14th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Pakistan’s current government took office in June 2013, the economy was under tremendous stress. Nearly three years later, estimates suggest that the economy could achieve 4.5 percent GDP growth in fiscal year 2015-16, which would be the highest rate in eight years. Inflation and interest rates have decreased, tax revenues have grown, and the fiscal deficit has shrunk. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have crossed $20 billion for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the government recently had a successful 10th review from the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, however, the government confronts political, security, and energy challenges that have hindered a full economic recovery. At this event, His Excellency Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s finance minister, will unveil a new two-year strategy to place Pakistan’s economic growth on par with that of other emerging economies in South Asia. He will also speak about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s current security situation.
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Peace Picks April 4-8

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 3, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Is Europe Post-Secular? Religion and Politics in the European Union | Monday, April 4th | 12:00-1:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels have put religion back on the European agenda. François Foret will discuss his book, Religion and Politics in the European Union: The Secular Canopy, which analyzes the place and influence of religion in European politics. He presents the first ever data collected on the religious beliefs of European decision makers and how they act on these beliefs. Discussing popular assumptions such as the resurgence of religion, aggressive European secularism, and religious lobbying, Foret offers objective data and frameworks to analyze major issues in the contemporary political debate.
  1. The European Refugee Surge: Transforming Challenges into Opportunities | Tuesday, April 5th | 9:00-10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The humanitarian catastrophe that is now unfolding at the gates of Europe raises profound challenges as well as opportunities to European nations. In the long term, growth will depend on how effectively they integrate in the labor market. The panel will ask the question: Which policies can ensure that this challenge is transformed into a success story? The report presentation will be followed by a panel discussion between American and European experts who will shed light on best practices in migration policy and lessons learned on both sides of the Atlantic. The event is part of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic EuroGrowth Initiative, focused on getting Europe back on the path to sustainable economic growth by convening top policymakers, business leaders, and academics who work to identify and apply best practices and policies on both sides of the Atlantic. Antonio Spilimbergo, Head of Mission to Turkey for the International Monetary Fund, will present a report. Other panelists include Moreno Bertoldi, Principal Advisor to EU Delegation to the US, and Laura Lane, UPS President of Global Affairs. Katerina Sokou, Kathimerini Greek Daily’s Washington DC Correspondent, will moderate.
  1. Global Military Spending and the Arms Trade: Trends and Implications | Tuesday, April 5th | 10:00-11:30 | The Forum on the Arms Trade Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Global military expenditure and the international arms trade are driven by changing economic circumstances, shifting priorities, emerging security threats, and regional and international instability. Examining the recent trends in the global arms market and in the budgets of government militaries allows us to identify potential hot-spots and future areas of concern. Each year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) releases data on current trends in military spending and international arms transfers. SIPRI’s Military Expenditure Database contains information on defense spending by almost all countries, and monitors broader trends that emerge over time. Likewise, SIPRI’s arms transfers database identifies top exporters and importers of conventional weapons. Drawn from open source documents, SIPRI’s databases provides analysis on the economic, political and security drivers that influence military spending around the world and offers insights into their implications for global peace, security and development. Please join us on April 5, 2016 to discuss the findings of SIPRI’s most recent data and the potential implications on U.S. national security and foreign policy. This event will present major findings and key trends in global military expenditures and international arms sales.This event is co-hosted by SIPRI, the Forum on the Arms Trade and the Stimson Center. Speakers includeAude Fleurant, Director, Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, SIPRI, Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center, and Aaron Mehta, Senior Pentagon Correspondent, Defense News. Rachel Stohl, Senior Associate, Stimson Center, will moderate.
  1. Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony | Tuesday, April 5th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent years, the countries of Latin America have moved out from under the shadow of the United States to exercise their agency as active players in the international system. What changed? Why? And why did it take so long for that change to happen? A new book by former Latin American Program Director Joseph S. Tulchin, Latin America in International Politics: Challenging US Hegemony, explores the evolving role of Latin American states in world affairs from the early days of independence to the present.   Please join us for a book discussion featuring Dr. Tulchin along with commentary from two distinguished diplomats. This includes Juan Gabriel Valdés, Chile Ambassador to the US, and Luigi Einaudi, Former Assistant Secretary General of the Organization of American States. Cynthia J. Arnson, Director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center, will moderate. A reception will follow.
  1. Saudi Arabia’s Regional Role and the Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Saudi Arabia has long been one of the United States’ closest allies in the Middle East, among the largest recipients of U.S. arms sales globally, and perceived as a crucial partner in the war on terrorism. Nonetheless, there have always been serious questions regarding the costs of the U.S.-Saudi military relationship, which have become more pronounced over the past year. The Saudi military intervention in Yemen has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, and recent executions in the Kingdom, including of nonviolent dissidents, have renewed longstanding concerns about the state of human rights in the Kingdom. In addition, concerns remain about Saudi support for extremist networks in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere, as well as the impact of Saudi militarism on divisions throughout the region. How has Saudi Arabia’s role in the region changed in recent years, and what has driven these changes? What relationships have various factions in Saudi Arabia had with extremist movements throughout the Middle East and North Africa? What impact does U.S. military support for Saudi Arabia have on the Kingdom’s role in the region, as well as on human rights concerns within the country? How have recent events, such as the ongoing conflict in Yemen, Saudi’s role in the Syrian conflict, and mass executions within Saudi Arabia, affected the U.S.-Saudi relationship? And what might we expect for the future of bilateral relations. This will be a conversation with Andrea Prasow, Deputy Washington Director, Human Rights Watch, Amb. Stephen Seche, Executive Vice President, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, and Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). It will be moderated by Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED).
  1. Is There Any Hope for Peace Talks in Afghanistan? If Not, Then What? | Wednesday, April 6th | 2:30-4:30 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent months, the Taliban has intensified its insurgency in Afghanistan. It now holds more territory than at any time since 2001. Civilian casualties reached record levels in 2015, and scores of Afghans are fleeing the country. In an effort to finally bring an end to Afghanistan’s 14-year war, Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the United States have formed a Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QDC) to prepare the ground for peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Despite periods of progress, this effort has so far fallen short. What will it take to launch and conclude a successful peace process? And if it fails, what’s next for Afghanistan? This event will consider these questions and others, with particular focus on the thinking of the four QDC countries. Speakers include Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow at Brookings, Raoof Hasan, Executive Director of the Regional Peace Institute in Pakistan, Barnett Rubin, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center on International Cooperation for New York University, and Andrew Small, Trans-Atlantic Fellow of the Asia Program at German Marshall Fund.
  1. Distract, Deceive, Destroy: Putin at War in Syria | Tuesday, April 5th | 2:30-4:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council for the release of Distract Deceive Destroy—Putin at War in Syria. While President Putin announced the end of Russia’s military operations with much fanfare, the modest forces withdrawn thereafter suggest that by no means is Russia’s military role in Syria over. Using digital forensic research and open source investigation methods, a new Atlantic Council report presents the reality of Russia’s Syrian campaign: Russia launched air strikes on hospitals, water treatment plants, and mosques. Russia used cluster bombs. Russia almost exclusively targeted non-ISIS targets—Truths that Russia will not admit, but truths that must be understood when negotiating with Russia as a potential partner. Panelists may be found here.
  1. A Conversation with NATO Secretary General H.E. Jens Stoltenberg | Wednesday, April 6th | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Alliance is facing a broad range of challenges of unprecedented complexity and increasing urgency. Confronted with a newly aggressive Russia to its east and an arc of instability across the Middle East and North Africa, NATO must take bold and innovative steps to respond to a fast-changing security landscape. Secretary General Stoltenberg will join the Atlantic Council to discuss NATO’s strategy to deal with the serious challenges along the Alliance’s flanks, and outline the Alliance’s priorities for its summit in Warsaw this summer. Jens Stoltenberg has been Secretary General of NATO since October 2014 after a distinguished career in Norwegian politics. As Prime Minister of Norway from 2000-2001 and then 2005-2013, Mr. Stoltenberg played an instrumental role in strengthening Norwegian armed forces and fostering stronger transatlantic unity on challenges close to Alliance territory. During his tenure in the Norwegian government, he also served as Minister of Finance, Minister of Industry and Energy, and State Secretary at the Ministry of the Environment. Throughout his career, Stoltenberg has held a number of international assignments, including Chair of the UN High-level Panel on System-wide Coherence, Chair of the High-level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing, and UN Special Envoy on Climate Change. Mr. Stoltenberg holds a postgraduate degree in Economics from the University of Oslo.
  1. Looting and Trafficking of Antiquities in the Middle East | Thursday, April 7th | 9:30-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | While the world watched in horror as ISIS destroyed the ancient city of Palmyra, the terrorist organization was simultaneously conducting a second—and nearly invisible—form of cultural destruction: looting antiquities from archaeological sites. These artifacts, along with material culture from similarly plundered sites throughout the rest of the Middle East, have been funneled through a complicated network and sold to collectors throughout the world, most of whom are unaware of their origins. Join us as four experts discuss the global illicit antiquities market and its impact on how the modern world views the true value of these ancient artifacts. Speakers include Tess Davis, Executive Director, Antiquities Coalition, Iris Gerlach, Head of the Sanaa Branch of the Oriental Department, German Archaeological Institute, Monica Hanna, Egyptian archaeologist (via Skype), and Alexander Nagel, Research Associate, Smithsonian Institution’s National Museum of Natural History.The moderator will be Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center.
  2. Securing development in insecure places | Thursday, April 7th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The defining development challenge for the next 15 years will be whether rapid progress can be made in conflict-affected places. The historical record is mixed. Some countries, for example Cambodia, have put conflict behind, achieved rapid economic growth, and brought down poverty levels significantly, while others, such as Afghanistan, continue to have stubbornly high rates of poverty with little discernable progress over the last decade. On April 7, the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings will host a discussion on the links between security and development. Japan International Cooperation Agency President Shinichi Kitaoka will lead off with a keynote address on the interaction between security and development and what Japan has learned from its development cooperation in Mindanao, Syria, and South Sudan. He will then join a panel discussion moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Homi Kharas.  Panelists include Sharon Morris, State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, Bruce Jones, Project on International Order and Strategy Senior Fellow, and Joel Hellman, Dean at Georgetown University. Afterwards, questions will be taken from the audience.
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Europe a soft target for terrorists

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 28, 2016 - 0 Comment

My colleagues at the Middle East Institute asked me for this Friday and published it today, along with finer pieces by Charles Lister on Palmyra/ISIS, Paul Salem on Mosul/Iraq and Allen Keiswetter on Trump/Saudi Arabia:

The Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq and Syria, but expanding affiliates in Libya and other parts of Africa, and striking soft targets in France, Belgium, Turkey and elsewhere. As most of its revenue comes from extortion in territory it controls and its recruits from a record of successful advances, loss of territory likely puts the jihadists in a tight spot. Momentum matters.

Hitting soft targets is cheap, requires few people and is relatively easy to plan and execute. Europe is readily accessible from the Middle East and houses lots of poorly integrated and marginalized Sunni Muslims. Prisons there, and elsewhere, appear to incubate terrorists; witness the brothers who participated in last week’s Brussels attacks. Europe, where internal borders have been weakened without a concomitant strengthening of external borders, can expect more attempts by terrorist groups to kill and maim ordinary civilians as well as security forces.

The United States is not immune, but has advantages: two large oceans, toughened intelligence and law enforcement since 9/11, and a Muslim population thought to be better integrated than in Europe. Homegrown terrorists, many non-Muslim, have had more success here than foreigners. The charged political atmosphere of the presidential primary campaigns could, however, generate resentments and incentives for spectacular attacks. ISIS would surely not pass up a good opportunity to demonstrate its reach and strike against Americans and American interests.

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Peace Picks March 21-25

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - March 20, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. New Voices, New Visions: The Impact of the Arts in Saudi Arabia | Tuesday, March 22nd | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) in partnership with Art Jameel is pleased to host internationally acclaimed Saudi artist Ahmed Mater for a discussion about the impact of his art in presenting new perspectives of Saudi Arabia and its role in shaping fresh narratives reflecting the growing aspirations of the Kingdom’s youth. He will be joined in conversation by scholar Kristin Diwan, an expert on youth activism in the Gulf, and British artist Stephen Stapleton, director of the arts organization Culturunners, who founded the Saudi arts collective, Edge of Arabia, with Mater in 2003. The conversation will be moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Kate Seelye.
  2. Confronting Far-Right Extremism in Europe | Tuesday, March 22nd | 4:00-5:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A wave of far-right populism is sweeping across Europe. Once on the fringes of politics, extremist parties are capitalizing on the refugee crisis and the financial meltdown of 2008 to gain at the polls. The re-emergence of anti-immigrant and isolationist groups and parties in Europe erodes the European Union’s ability to coordinate policies for solving Europe’s crises. Indeed, their growing popularity undermines the basic tenets of the European project. Taking advantage of Europe’s far-right turn, Russia has been aiding its far-right allies, which in turn publicly support Putin’s geopolitical interests and foreign policy agenda. Western policymakers have been slow to recognize the problem and to effectively respond. At a time when Europe faces some of its greatest challenges, we urgently need strategy-driven policies to strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Dr. Frances Burwell, Vice President of the Atlantic Council’s European Union and Special Initiative department, will offer welcome remarks. Susan Corke, Director of the Antisemitism and Extremism department at Human Rights First, Marlene Laurelle, Professor at George Washington University, and Alina Polyakova, Deputy Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, will offer their thoughts. Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy Magazine Editor, will moderate.
  3. The Changing Landscape of Environmental Public Participation and Protest in China | Wednesday, March 23rd | 9:00-10:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the ‘war’ on pollution continues in China, the Chinese public and environmental NGOs have been taking advantage of more formal and informal channels to voice their concern about worsening air, water and soil quality. At this March 23rd CEF meeting, speakers will discuss China’s evolving space for public participation vis-a-vis environmental problems.  Wu Fengshi (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) will speak about the changing nature of public contention in China exemplified by recent large-scale anti-development and environmental protests. Drawing on the second edition of her highly acclaimed book—China’s Environmental Challenges—Judith Shapiro (American University) will highlight other ways that citizens and NGOs are responding to the intense pollution enveloping their country.
  4. Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation | Wednesday, March 23rd | 12:00-1:30 | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Having historically been the only oil producer with sufficient spare capacity to shape the world economy, Saudi Arabia has held a critical position in 21st century geopolitics. Despite the increasingly robust role Saudi Arabia has been playing more recently on the regional scene, the kingdom has faced internal and external challenges that have kept it from fulfilling its vast potential. In Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation, Gulf expert Neil Partrick, and other regional analysts, address the kingdom’s relations in the Middle East and wider Islamic world, and its engagement with established and emergent global powers. AGSIW is pleased to host a discussion on Saudi Arabian Foreign Policy: Conflict and Cooperation with Neil Partrick and a contributor to the book, Mark N. Katz, who will look at Russian relations with Saudi Arabia. They will be joined by Fahad Nazer, who will discuss the work and Saudi foreign policy, and AGSIW Senior Resident Scholar Hussein Ibish, who will moderate the panel.
  5. The emerging China-Russia axis: The return of geopolitics? | Thursday, March 24th | 9:00-11:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Over the past decade, Russia and China have come into closer alignment and their bilateral collaboration has grown. At the same time, Beijing and Moscow have each taken steps to alter the status quo in their respective peripheries (e.g. Russia in Ukraine and China in maritime East Asia). Warmer Sino-Russo relations elicit the question of whether the closer alignment of these two neighbors is somehow changing international politics to the disadvantage of the United States and its friends in Europe and Asia. On March 24, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings will hold a public forum that brings together experts from Japan and the United States to examine how recent actions by China and Russia have affected the global order. Additionally, panelists will analyze whether new geopolitical rivalries have returned both between and within the East and the West. After the panel discussion, the speakers will take audience questions. Panelists include Akihiro Iwashita, Professor at Hokkaido University, Thomas Wright, Director of the Project on International Order and Strategy, Chisako T. Masuo, Associate Professor at Kyushu University, and David Gordon, Senior Advisor of the Eurasia Group. Richard C. Bush III, Director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies, will moderate.
  6. A Conversation with President of Kosovo H.E. Atifete Jahjaga | Wednesday, March 23rd | 4:00-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Seventeen years ago, NATO intervened in then-Yugoslavia in the mission known as Operation Allied Force. It was almost ten years later, in 2008, when Kosovo declared independence. Today, the country has made progress in its European integration, but ensuring regional security and political stability have remained significant challenges. Though Montenegro recently received an invitation to join the NATO Alliance, joining Albania and Croatia, it is unlikely that other Balkan countries will soon be brought into the NATO fold. Against the backdrop of a serious migration crisis and continuing uncertainty from Europe’s East, deep divisions threaten the stability of the region and endanger its collective security. As President of the Republic of Kosovo, H.E. Atifete Jahjaga has been a vocal proponent of the path for Kosovo toward membership in the EU and other institutions. In her final visit to Washington before concluding her mandate, President Jahjaga will provide an outlook on the progress Kosovo has made in the years since NATO’s intervention, as well as ways to address the contemporary security challenges faced by Kosovo and the wider region.
  7. Report Launch: Ilya Yashin on Ramzn Kadyrov | Thursday, March 24th | 12:00-1:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The harassment and sanctioned murder of opposition voices are no longer the exception in Russia; rather, they are part and parcel of President Vladimir Putin’s strategic intent to suppress those who challenge his government. Ramzan Kadyrov, Mr. Putin’s close ally and leader of Chechnya, is widely believed to be responsible for orchestrating the murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in February 2015. In recent months, Kadyrov and his supporters have systematically harassed and threatened Russian opposition politicians who bravely speak out against Putin’s regime. In his revealing report, A Threat to National Security, Ilya Yashin details the extent of Kadyrov’s criminal activities and unrestrained corruption. Kadyrov now exercises complete control over Chechnya with a private army of thirty thousand loyal only to him. Kadyrov’s increasingly brazen actions signal that the Kremlin may not have complete control over the Chechen leader.
  8. Running an Independent Russian Media Outlet | Friday, March 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since its launch in October 2014, the independent, Riga-based media outlet Meduza has reached an audience of 4 million unique visitors per month, 70% of whom live in Russia. How does Meduza ensure comprehensive coverage of Russian news while being based outside the country? How have the Russian establishment and official media responded to Meduza’s rise? Publisher and journalist Ilya Krasilshchik shares the story of Meduza’s challenges and success. Ekaterina Krongauz, journalist and editor of Meduza, will also speak.
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The Yemen quagmire

Posted in Daniel Serwer - February 15, 2016 - 0 Comment

Christina Ma, a SAIS student, reports:

The panelists of the MEI- and SAIS- sponsored “Yemen Quagmire,” held Friday, featured Charles Schmitz (Middle East Institute), Amat Alsoswa (former Yemeni Cabinet Member), Leslie Campbell (National Democratic Institute), and Andrew Plitt (USAID). Kate Seelye (Middle East Institute) moderated the discussion on the conflict in Yemen, the humanitarian crisis, and prospects for peace talks.

Schmitz underlined that the grievances generating the conflict are not just between the Houthis and the state, but more broadly between the Northerners and the central government. No political force on either side of the conflict has a coherent vision or ability to settle the war. Yemen may be in for a “long, slow grind.” Poverty is a huge issue; the groups that can pay their forces will be more likely to attract supporters.

Regarding international involvement, Schmitz said the Saudi air campaign has been a disaster. The blockade has also greatly affected the population. Insurgent forces are still capturing strategic cities and becoming involved with oil smuggling, despite efforts by the Coalition. The role of Islamist groups such as Al Qaeda could further complicate the conflict.

Alsoswa described the escalation of the conflict since “Operation Restoring Hope” began ten months ago in April 2015. She illustrated the gravity of the humanitarian crisis using recent UN statistics. For example, 82% of the population is estimated to seek aid, there is an absence of medical and other basic necessities, and 33% of people have not been able to receive any aid. Humanitarian actors on the ground (for example, MSF) have been limited in their ability to serve the population due to the insecure environment, in some cases, even being targets of violence. Many southerners have been fleeing to the north, especially Sana’a. In addition, there are threats from Islamist groups such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda seeking inroads, as well as the threat of spillover to nearby countries Saudi Arabia and Oman.

The first and most immediate challenge to peace is overcoming the humanitarian crisis, Alsoswa said. Poverty has been exacerbated, governance has collapsed, private economic activity has broken down due to the insecure environment and the blockade, and oil production has halted. In Sana’a, looting and destruction of cultural heritage sites is increasingly problematic.

Plitt described the Yemeni humanitarian crisis as one of the more dire that has flown under the radar. Many parts of the country were already food insecure before the war. After the conflict escalated, the south and west have entered emergency states and are one step away from famine. The economic outlook is grim. The government is facing a budget crisis—foreign reserves are nearly depleted. Government salaries and social service payments have not been dispersed. One relatively positive note is that around 70% of schools in areas less affected by the conflict have been able to remain open. A major impediment to peace is that even if a ceasefire is achieved, can it be enforced on the ground?

Campbell said that many of the political fault lines and competitions for power prior to the conflict remain the same. The Iranian and Saudi interference masks the pressures driving the conflict, but they should not be overlooked. Northerners have historically tried to win more autonomy, power-sharing, and resource sharing. The center opposes these demands. The South also has had secession movements and critically possesses the country’s oil resources.

Alluding to a “fatal flaw” in the 2013 National Dialogue, Campbell noted that the conference discussed many of the simpler issues but the bigger issues that underlay the conflict, such as federalism, were evaded. The President picked the southern delegates, who did not truly represent the interests of the South. While the outcome suited the agenda of the people in the center, groups vying for devolution, such as the Houthis, were dissatisfied with the outcome and furthermore perceived that the agreement would be imposed on them by the international community. Former President Saleh remains a troublemaker and spoiler.

Campbell recommends that dialogues and negotiations must be broader and keep the core issues are on the table. Otherwise, the groups have no incentive to negotiate and will continue fighting. Alsoswa adds that one cannot just rely on the parties of war to create peace. Third parties play an important role by enforcing peace on the ground.

In the Q&A, Campbell noted that Saleh is a skilled politician but escaped punishment. The international community has not yet found a way to deal with impunity. Schmitz suggested that the comparison of the Houthis to Hezbollah is inaccurate because Iran has less control over the Houthis, who presented an opportunity for Iran to play on the regional narrative of “oppressed Shiites.” But Iran does not direct their actions.

On the role of the US, the panelists noted that Washington has been reluctant to get involved because of its alliance with Riyadh, but recently has strengthened messages.  Saudi and US interests are not necessarily aligned. Refugees are a big issue because Yemenis cannot seek refuge in neighboring countries. Businesses could potentially play a critical role in post-conflict reconstruction by helping revive the economy.

The underlying issues related to economic, resource, and political inequality that are not being resolved. The economic and humanitarian situation in Yemen is dire. Overall, the outlook on Yemen remains grim.

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The Russians win this round

Posted in Daniel Serwer - February 12, 2016 - 0 Comment

John Kerry went to Munich this week looking for a ceasefire and humanitarian access. He got a “cessation of hostilities,” which implies less legal status and less permanence, and a promise of immediate humanitarian access. This was entirely predictable and predicted: the cessation of hostilities freezes the recent Russian/Iranian/Syrian government gains in place on the ground around Aleppo. Humanitarian access will shift the burden of feeding and sheltering hundreds of thousands of besieged Syrians from their own government to the international community.

Just as predictable as this agreement is its breakdown. There is no neutral party to monitor implementation. Even if the moderate forces represented in the High Negotiation Commission, which gave a nod to the deal, restrain their cadres, there are lots of other fighters all over Syria, including extremists associated with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda who are uninterested in stopping the hostilities. The Russian-backed offensive never made any distinction between extremists and relative moderates, whom it slew with abandon. Some of the relative moderates will continue their efforts to flee northwards. Others who remain will swell the ranks of the extremists.

It would be surprising if an agreement built on such shifting sands were to last more than a couple of weeks. The Russians, Iranians, Hizbollah and Syrian forces will suffer many potshots and will at some point decide to take to opportunity to go at it again. The opposition will be trying to regain its footing, but that will be difficult as civilians flee and extremists recruit. The Americans have given no indication of any willingness to beef up arms to the opposition or to allow the Saudis and Gulf monarchies to deliver anti-aircraft and other higher quality weapons. The logistical advantage lies with the regime and its allies, who are not besieged and will more easily rearm and resupply.

So the next round, whenever it occurs, is likely to find the opposition at an even greater military disadvantage. Russia may want to help the Syrian Kurds take control of the entire northern border of Syria with Turkey, thereby boxing in the remaining opposition forces in the north. That could trigger a Turkish intervention, widening the war and weakening America’s best allies, the Kurds, in fighting the Islamic State. The Russians will also want to clear out the opposition forces near Damascus and in the south, where Russian air strikes had intensified in recent days. It is hard to say that the regime may “win” this war, because much of the country will be destroyed, but Assad could end up remaining in the presidential palace and presiding but not ruling over a fragmented and desperate country.

Without a political agreement that leads to his certain departure, it is hard for me to picture the Americans, Europeans and Gulf states supporting any significant reconstruction. Washington has already spent upwards of $5 billion on humanitarian aid and will presumably spend billions more. The Russians and Iranians, so far as I know, haven’t spent a dime on humanitarian aid yet. With oil prices around $30/barrel, both Moscow and Tehran will be hard strapped. Even at $80/barrel they wouldn’t have much to spare. They won’t be willing to spend any significant amount on reconstruction in Syria.

So an Assad “win” will make Syria a ward of poor step-parents with their own offspring to nurture. Some days I think the opposition should just stop fighting and allow the regime to confront the challenges of governing post-war Syria, with its ruined infrastructure, its decimated security forces, its limited oil production, its drought-ridden agriculture, and its dwindling water resources. How long would Assad last? Many Syrians have already been governing themselves through local councils for the better part of five years. It is going to be hard to take the legitimacy and authority they have built up back and stockpile it again in Damascus. Assad may win the military fight, but he has lost his country.

The Russians and Iranians are also likely losers in the long term. They have doubled down on supporting Assad. Their efforts will drive more Syrians to support extremists and guarantee that no successor regime will be friendly to their interests.

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