Tag: Somalia
Toward a critical C/PVE perspective
Terrorism and violent extremism represent some of Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. They exacerbate local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing an already fragile political landscape. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by the US and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. On February 24, the United States Institute of Peace convened a panel in conjunction with the RESOLVE Network to discuss local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Dr. Alastair Reed (opening remarks): Senior Expert, US Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann (closing remarks): Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, US Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
Framing Violent Extremism
All of the panelists acknowledged the importance of beginning any discussion of countering/preventing violent extremism (C/PVE) methods with an examination of the definitions that undergird these policies. Olojo stressed that counterterrorism is often a particularly problematic term. State actors, particularly in Africa, have frequently exploited the concept of counterterrorism to abuse their political power. By shifting to discussions of preventing violent extremism rather than counterterrorism, policymakers and scholars can begin to focus on risk factors, early warning mechanisms, and root causes, as opposed to security responses to violence.
In addition to the effect for high-level actors, definitions and terms matter for local actors. As Donnelly noted, women’s groups in particular have raised concerns about threats they have received due to their association with counterterrorism and counterviolent extremism programming. Moreover, Western groups frequently engage with African countries with a preconceived idea of what constitutes the most significant security threats, while ignoring contradictory information from local groups. As a result, Sany emphasized that local actors must own the framing of C/PVE programming.
The COVID-19 pandemic and violent extremism
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a significant development in the evolution of violent extremist organizations in Africa. Olojo pointed to two groups in Africa in particular: Boko Haram and al-Shabab. Since the onset of the pandemic, Boko Haram has pushed narratives that the pandemic is a punishment from God. Through these narratives, the group has sought to capitalize on the crisis to aid their recruitment strategies. In the Horn of Africa, al-Shabab established a COVID-19 prevention and treatment center. The group’s decision to form this center highlights both how the pandemic has exacerbated governance failures. Violent extremist organizations are exploiting these failures to increase their standing.
Community-oriented C/PVE
Discussions of community-oriented C/PVE methods and the role of gender dominated much of the panel’s discussion. Olojo identified four key ideas regarding the inclusion of communities in C/PVE programming. First, community voices ought to be included because they bear the brunt of violence from these groups. Second, research on communities should not simply focus on gathering data, but should also allow communities to express their views. Third, emphasis should be placed on developing a shared vision across communities, which is ultimately a prerequisite to successful dialogue. Finally, policymakers and scholars should remember that their ultimate responsibility lies with enhancing the welfare of these local communities.
Donnelly remarked on the importance of including women’s voices–and a discussion of gender more broadly–in engagements with local communities. She delineated three particularly pressing issues along these lines for Africa in 2021:
- Deep concern about the upcoming elections in Somalia and the prospects for election violence perpetrated by al-Shabab. In particular, she fears that an election crisis could sideline the activism of women.
- Frustration that PVE policy and programming has continued to fail with respect to the re-integration of women participants in violent extremist organizations. Re-integration programming to date has focused almost entirely on male participants in these organizations, despite the fact that women experience unique barriers to re-entering society.
- Societies have not reckoned with the reality of child members of these organizations. Many children were either born into these groups or have been integrated into them, and as a result many children have now been imprisoned due to their connections to Boko Haram.
To watch the event in full:
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Arms trafficking: more breach than observance
An event at the Atlantic Council on February 4 discussed the measures and mitigation techniques for illicit transfer of arms and weaponry around the world. The event was prompted by a report published by the Atlantic Council, authored by investigative journalist Tim Michetti, which followed materiel procurement by a network of militants operating in Bahrain, specifically activities carried out by Iran. The report can be read here. The prompting questions for the discussion were based on how to prevent and disrupt the flow of international illicit weapons flows as well as strengthening arms embargos. Further topics of discussion analyzed specific examples of illicit transfers of weapons in different regions, as well as the policy implications and a road map to alleviate these weapon flows.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Norman Roule (Moderator): Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Challenges:
Moderator Norman Roule opened the discussion noting that the major concern revolves around Iran’s transfer of illegal weaponry throughout the Middle East, while also noting the consequences for regional geopolitical relations, reaching East Africa as well. Iran has provided weapons to Syria, which provoked a sort of “forever war” with Israel, as well as provided precision weapons and missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Tim Michetti’s report on Illicit Iranian Weapon’s Transfers analyzes the mode of entry, either by land or by maritime means. The report analyzed the weapons in comparison to those that were taken from regional conflicts in order to trace the materiel back to Iran. This work established a guide for how materiel from different regions could be traced back to actors based on their characteristics, which are unique to each country that they are manufactured in. Michetti’s report on Bahrain is one of many examples of the illicit weapons flows in the Middle East and sets the stage for future investigations on how the linkages between illicit weapons and where they end up can be made.
Jay Bahadur discussed an illicit weapons seizure by the Saudi Arabian navy in the Arabian Sea in June 2020 that discovered Chinese- made assault rifles and missiles, along with other weaponry that was believed to be manufactured in Iran. This seizure was not the first of this type, as the Saudis have intercepted multiple ships in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea since 2015, many of which have been traced back to Iran, where the weapons originated. These weapon transfers have exacerbated the conflict in Yemen, while also potentially destabilizing East African countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea.
Historically, disrupting commercial trafficking of small arms and light weapons has been a secondary priority to counterterrorism, but according to Jay Bahadur this approach ignores the overlap that often exists between arms trafficking and terrorism.
International Regulation
According to Rachel Stohl, the Arms Trade Treaty and the Firearms Protocol form the international legal framework for weapons transfers. Several voluntary groups and committees exist as well, in the United Nations and elsewhere. Synergy among these groups and treaties can improve transparency and responsibility in the global arms trade. The treaty mechanisms are only meaningful if they are implemented and signatories held accountable. In the Middle East and Horn of Africa, fewer than than 20 percent of countries are parties to the international treaties. Stohl emphasized the need to hold countries and industry actors accountable, as the consequences of illicit weapons transfers coincide with other illicit activities such as terrorism, trafficking, and illegal trading of goods.
David Mortlock noted that the international systems in place to combat illicit weapons transfers depend on member-state governments to uphold them. Sanctions should be considered to hold governments accountable. They can increase the operational costs for groups transferring weapons illicitly, but the UN and European Union have not wanted to sanction Iran to the extent the United States has. As noted by Roule, the United States, particularly the Trump Administration, had a vastly different perspective on countering Iran compared to the rest of the international community.
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Stevenson’s army, December 17
George Will lists Congress’ many failures at passing required legislation.
NYT notes US failure to catch Russian hacking for months.
Failed attack, renewed threats from al-Shabab
Currency manipulation — Switzerland & Vietnam.
FP says Gen. Austin is close to Biden on policy grounds.
Report on Congress and social media.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 16
Military families need food assistance.
Iraq’s economy is collapsing.
White House meddled in CDC.
Somalia breaks relations with Kenya.
John Bolton criticizes Trump action on Morocco.
A reporter tries to tell what will happen to nuclear “football” if Trump skips inauguration.
The hawkish FDD has its policy recommendations.
Analogy of the day: writers call for “Goldwater-Nichols for emerging technology.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 5
US is ending 5 cultural exchange programs with China, calling them propaganda.
Trump fires Defense Business Board, puts Lewandowski [!] and other loyalists on.
Administration announces US troop withdrawal from Somalia.
New documentary on VPs includes Biden explanation of his doubts on Bin Laden raid.
CRS has newly updated report on Special Operations Forces.
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Stevenson’s army, November 18
The Acting Defense Secretary announced cutbacks in US troops overseas. The press noticed that the CJCS was not present at the briefing.
Stars & Stripes says US will leave Somalia but stay in Djibouti
Micah Zenko notes that, even with the cuts in Afghanistan, there will be 22K civilian contractors..
NYT says foreign countries are signing up US lobbyists with Biden ties.
The Post’s Dave Weigel summarizes the gerrymander consequences of the elections. GOP ahead; Dems fell short.
Another think tank group releases its plan for State Dept reform.
Interesting suggestion for a special China directorate on NSC.
And strangely, the State Dept policy planning staff has released a heavily footnoted paper on the China challenge.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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