Tag: Somalia
Imbalanced Region
On September 20 the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) hosted a panel discussion entitled “Red Sea Rivalries: Middle East Competition in the Horn of Africa” to introduce and discuss a new report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) on the influence of Gulf Countries on the Horn of Africa. Opening remarks were delivered by Ambassador Johnnie Carson and Robert Malley, President of ICG. Elizabeth Dickinson, ICG’s Arabian peninsula analyst and Dino Mahtani, ICG’s Africa program deputy director outlined the report’s findings. UN advisor Nicholas Haysom, African Union Chief of Staff to the High-Level Implementation Panel Abdul Mohammad, and former Egyptian Ambassador Hesham Youssef provided commentary.
Malley described three key findings: first, the Gulf must stop exporting its conflicts to the Red Sea region; second, the Red Sea countries should negotiate collectively with the Gulf; and third, Western countries have a role to play in these conflicts but have only recently begun to do so.
Dickinson argued that Gulf competition in the Red Sea region is part of wider strategy throughout North Africa and the Sahel. Qatar and the UAE-Saudi alliance’s interventions in Sudan are related to its actions in Chad and Niger, the three countries bordering the stronghold of the UAE’s Libya proxy General Haftar. She also argued that the Gulf countries do not consider the Horn of Africa part of a different continent in which they are foreign meddlers. Rather, they think of the Red Sea as part of their region and their role in it as a natural extension of longstanding historical ties.
Mahtani emphasized that he is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a stable dynamic between Gulf countries and domestic actors in Sudan. The killing of 120 people in Khartoum in June by General Hemeti’s forces pushed his Emirati and Saudi backers to show contrition. In July, an attempted coup by Qatar-backed members of Sudan’s military showed that Hemeti faced strong enough opposition to prevent him from ruling through coercion alone. Mahtani argued that this reality may push the UAE to compromise with Qatar on Sudan. This could lay the groundwork for future cooperation between the two countries on their overall plans for Sudan’s post-Bashir development.
Mahtani contrasted this to the situation in Somalia, where the federal government in Mogadishu is aligned with Qatar while regional political leaders receive support from the UAE and Saudi Arabia. He also described the UAE’s indirect support of al-Shabab through purchases of Somali charcoal, a significant source of funding for the militant group. In exchange, al-Shabab has increased the number of their attacks this summer and targeted a delegation of Qataris and Somali federal government employees, acting as “subcontractors for political violence.” Several panelists agreed that the Gulf rivalries have contributed to political fragmentation and violence in Somalia and will likely continue to do so indefinitely.
Both Dickinson and Mahtani emphasized the role that multilateralism can play in addressing the power asymmetry between the Gulf countries and those in the Horn of Africa. They argued that Horn of Africa countries can increase their bargaining power by negotiating jointly with the Gulf through regional multilateral organizations like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or the African Union. The United States rarely involves itself but when it does it can make a big difference to the effectiveness of these multilateral discussions. In Sudan, the Quad talks among the United States, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE facilitated the power sharing compromise.
Mohammad agreed that Africa’s strong tradition of multilateralism could benefit the countries of the Horn of Africa and added that it could provide an example of positive multilateral relations to the Gulf countries. He argued that while Gulf countries have weaponized the GCC against each other in recent years, adopting an African-inspired culture of multilateralism could provide a means to transcend conflict in the Middle East. Hesham agreed that multilateralism in this part of the world is important but argued that it will not solve the problem of asymmetry in the bilateral relationships between Gulf states and Horn of Africa countries.
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Droning on won’t do
On May 21 New America held a panel discussion on violence prevention in South Somalia and possible opportunities going forward featuring Isse Abdullahi, Director of the Social-Life and Agricultural Development Organization (SADO), Pauline Muchina, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for the American Friends Service Committee’s Africa region, and Brittany Brown, Chief of Staff for the International Crisis Group.
The focus was on the drivers of violence: poverty, lack of education, and weak governance. Security initiatives in Somalia can only go so far without addressing these. The speakers critiqued the Somali President, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo,” for putting too much focus on security efforts and not enough on building up civil society and improving governance.
The main issue the government of Somalia faces is its lack of territorial control outside the capital, Mogadishu, and its lack of funding. Many of the militias, such as the Al-Shabaab, are better funded than the government, and thus can afford not only to sustain their operations and arm themselves, but also to pay locals to join them. Many of the locals, Muchina points out, join not out of commitment to the Al-Shabaab ideology, but rather out of poverty.
Ideology is another big issue in the fight against Al-Shabaab. Abdullahi stressed that Al-Shabaab is not only a militia movement, it is also an ideology that cannot be defeated purely through drone strikes, outside intervention, and military initiatives. He points to US efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq as examples of how hard it is to defeat an ideology militarily.
Rather than using drone strikes, which both Abdullahi and Muchina say do little to defeat Al-Shabaab and even help their recruiting efforts, it would be wise to work more with local experts on the ground. They say initiatives focused youth, who make up 70% of the population, are effective in preventing violence and convincing the population to put aside rivalries and grievances and work together towards a united Somalia.
By contrast, Brown said that in her experience people on the ground in Somalia favor US airstrikes. What happens after airstrikes is especially important. Once Al-Shabaab is forced out of an area, it is of utmost importance to start rebuilding infrastructure and helping both government and civil society take root and grow.
Brown points out that the policy of drone strikes started under the Obama administration because of the lower cost and lessened risk to US personnel. Drone strikes have increased under President Trump and the strike policy has changed, allowing for longer strike durations and strikes in areas previously off-limits. In 2019 so far there have been 40 drone strikes in Somalia, close to the 45 all year in 2018 and more than the 35 in 2017. She asks why the US only has counter-terrorism missions in Africa instead of the more peaceful and cooperative missions seen elsewhere. The Executive Branch should be held more accountable.
Abdullahi recommends looking more into the effects of drone strikes and evaluating if they continue to be the best measure for fighting Al-Shabaab. He suggests looking at other options and working more with individuals on the ground. Most important is looking at the bigger picture of who is fighting whom in Somalia and who could possibly broker peace between rival factions.
Muchina agrees. She stresses the importance, and thus far unused opportunity, of using the women within the traditional Somali clan structure to help broker peace and promote talks between rival clans. Even though they are widely discriminated against, at the family level they carry a lot of influence and thus could be effective in engaging people .
The panelists agree the best way to move forward in preventing violence in Somalia is by reevaluating current foreign intervention methods and working with locals on the ground to broker peace talks. “Even if Al-Shabaab were gone tomorrow Somalia wouldn’t have peace” says Brown, highlighting the need for peacemaking efforts which go beyond just bombing militants.
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Peace Picks May 20-24
1. #CyberspaceIRL: Rule of Law Approaches to Virtual Threats|Tuesday, May 21st|9am-5:30pm|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
A $600 billion black market, cybercrime has transformed the digital world into a sophisticated platform to steal and profit from personal data, undermine civil rights, manipulate elections, disseminate anti-democratic propaganda, and steal intelligence. Yet, cyberspaces remain largely unregulated. This lack of governance is a major challenge and concern for legal practitioners, human rights champions, and policymakers. To properly address the complex world of cybercrimes, these key players must work together to prioritize targeted strategies encompassing cross-jurisdictional cooperation, both locally and globally.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace as we co-host the American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative’s 2019 Annual Conference. Bringing together representatives from academia, national security, and the private and public sectors, this conference will identify rule of law strategies to more effectively address this ever-changing landscape.
#CyberspaceIRL will assess whether current approaches are sufficient in addressing the complexity of issues such as money laundering, trafficking, election security, and internet freedom, and identify the breadth of actors who must be part of devising and implementing effective strategies and solutions.
Agenda:
8:30am – 9:00am – Registration (coffee/pastries)
9:00 – 9:15 – Welcome and Introductions
David Yang, Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation, U.S. Institute of Peace
Alberto Mora, Director, American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative
Judge Margaret McKeown, Board Chair, American Bar Association Rule of Law Initiative
9:20am – 9:50am – Keynote: “Setting the Stage for the Clash of Norms in Cyberspace”
Sujit Raman, Associate Deputy Attorney General, U.S. Department of Justice
10:00am – 11:15am – Breakout Sessions
Legal Frameworks and Regional Initiatives
Rob Leventhal, moderator, Deputy Office Director, Office of Anticrime Programs, U.S. Department of State
Manuel de Almeida Pereira, Senior Legal Officer, Programme Manager, Council of Europe
Kenn Kern, Chief Information Officer, Special Assistant, International Relations, New York County District Attorney’s Office
Election Security and the Erosion of Trust in Democratic Institutions
Jonas Claes, moderator, Preventing Election Violence Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Katherine Ellena, Legal Advisor, International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Harvey Rishikof, Visiting Professor, Temple Law, former senior policy advisor to the director of national counterintelligence at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Saleela Salahuddin, Cybersecurity Policy Lead, Facebook
11:25am – 12:15pm – Plenary: The Tipping Point: When is Cyber Incitement Responsible for Violence? (the case of Burma/Myanmar)
Lata Nott, moderator, Executive Director of the First Amendment Center at the Newseum
Molly Land, Associate Director of the University of Connecticut’s Human Rights Institute and Professor of Law, University of Connecticut School of Law
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Finance and Economics Expert Panel of Experts Established pursuant to UNSCR 1874
Richard Ashby Wilson, Gladstein Distinguished Chair of Human Rights and Professor of Law and Anthropology, University of Connecticut School of Law
12:15pm – 1:00pm – Lunch
1:00pm – 2:15pm – Breakout Sessions
Cybercrime Enforcement: Deterring State and Non-State Actors through Criminal Prosecutions
Steven M. Kelly, moderator, Chief of Cyber Policy of the Cyber Division at the Federal Bureau of Investigation
Luke Dembosky, Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton
Michael J. Stawasz, Deputy Chief for Computer Crime, U.S. Department of Justice, Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section
Sean Newell, Deputy Chief for Cyber, U.S. Department of Justice, Counterintelligence and Export Control Section
William Lyne, Liaison Officer, National Crime Agency, British Embassy to the United States
When Bitcoin Goes Bad: How Virtual Currencies Challenge the Rule of Law
Adam Zarazinski, moderator, CEO, Inca Digital Securities
Elisabeth Poteat, Attorney, Department of Justice, National Security Division
Michael Sachs, Chief, Investigative Division, New York County District Attorney’s Office
Yaya J. Fanusie, Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
2:30pm – 3:45pm – Breakout Sessions
Internet Freedom: Protecting the Good Guys while Catching the Bad Guys
Heather West, moderator, Senior Policy Manager at Mozilla
Andrea Little Limbago, Chief Social Scientist of Virtru
Bill Marczak, Research Fellow at Citizen Lab, and a Postdoctoral Researcher at UC Berkeley
Robyn Greene, Privacy Policy Manager, Facebook
Trafficking in the Digital Age
Jessie Tannenbaum, moderator, Legal Advisor, Research, Evaluation, and Learning Division, ABA ROLI
Danielle Kessler, Senior Policy and Outreach Manager, International Fund for Animal Welfare
Evan Ratliff, Journalist and author of The Mastermind: Drugs, Empire, Murder, Betrayal
Robert E. Bornstein, Assistant Special Agent in Charge, Criminal Division, Branch 1 of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Washington Field Office
3:45pm – 4:30pm – Closing Keynote Session: “Shaping the Future of the Cyber Landscape”
Glenn S. Gerstell, General Counsel, National Security Agency
Judge James E. Baker, ROLI Board & Syracuse University
4:30pm – 5:30pm – Reception
2. Visegrad Countries in the Transatlantic Alliance – Common Security, Shared Challenges|Tuesday, May 21st|10:30pm-12:00pm|Heritage Foundation|Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, DC 20002| Register Here
The event cohosted by the Heritage Foundation and the Antall József Knowledge Center in Budapest, Hungary, will explore the diplomatic, economic, military and political importance of the V4. A special focus of the event will be relations between the Visegrád and the United States, how the region can one day develop into an anchor of U.S. engagement in Europe and continue contributing to robust transatlantic cooperation.
Panel:
Dušan Fischer, Project Manager, Air Force and Counter-Air Defense Projects Unit, Modernization Department, Ministry of Defence, Slovak Republic
Dominik P. Jankowski, Political Advisor & Head of the Political Section at the Permanent Delegation of the Republic of Poland to NATO
Hynek Kmoníček, Ambassador of the Czech Republic to the United States
László Szabó, Ambassador of Hungary to the United States
Moderated by:
Péter Stepper, Research Fellow, Editor, Antall József Knowledge Center
Hosted by:
James Carafano, Ph.D., Vice President and E.W. Richardson Fellow, Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy
Veronika Antall-Horváth, Deputy Director Antall József Knowledge Center
3. Violence Prevention in Southern Somalia|Tuesday, May 21st| 1pm-2:30pm|New America|740 15thSt NW #900, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
New America’s International Security Program and Peace Direct invite you to join them for a lunchtime panel discussion on violence prevention in southern Somalia. In March 2019, the capital city of Mogadishu saw seven terrorist attacks by Al-Shabaab in a single week. That, coupled with a recent uptick in counterterrorism ground, air, and drone strikes by the United States in cooperation with the government of Somalia, has called into question what it will take to establish peace in the southern part of the country.Peace Direct’s partner organization in Somalia, Social-Life and Agricultural Development Organization(SADO), has been working in the region for over two decades, looking at sustainable, people and community-centered development.
Topics that will be covered during the session include:
- What are the current obstacles and opportunities for peace in Somalia?
- Perspectives and recommendations from local peacebuilders on advancing peace in Somalia.
- What does practical violence prevention work in Somalia look like?
- What is the role of women in violence prevention?
- What is the role of U.S. policy in Somalia and what are recommendations for improving U.S. engagement?
Introductory Remarks:
Bridget Moix, U.S. Senior Representative and Head of Advocacy, Peace Direct
Panelists:
Isse Abdullahi, Director, Social-Life and Agricultural Development Organization (SADO)
Pauline Muchina, Public Education and Advocacy Coordinator for the American Friends Service Committee’s Africa region
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk, Policy Analyst, New America’s International Security Program
4. Is the Venezuela Crisis Becoming a Proxy Conflict?|Tuesday, May 21st|3:30pm-5pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW|Register Here
Join Carnegie and the Inter-American Dialogue for a timely conversation about the geopolitical implications of the Venezuela crisis. Top Trump administration officials have repeatedly criticized Cuban, Russian, and Chinese backing for the Maduro regime, but they are struggling to change the situation on the ground. What is the strategic calculus propelling outside powers’ involvement in Venezuela? What risks does deeper foreign intervention in the crisis pose for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition led by interim President Juan Guaidó and the region as a whole?
Speakers:
Rebecca Bill Chavez, nonresident senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs
Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center
Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue
Francisco Toro, founder of Caracas Chronicles and opinion columnist for the Washington Post
5. Europe after the European Election|Wednesday, May 22nd|1pm-2:30pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
While populism continues to be a dominant factor shaping Europe’s politics, the simplistic overuse of the label often obfuscates Europe’s actual political dynamics. Rather than populism, what makes the 2019 European election so significant is the degree of political fragmentation that will likely characterize the results. In all likelihood, power will continue to shift away from the once-dominant political families on the center right and the center left. How will that affect the composition of the future European Commission? Will it make the EU more difficult to govern? And why should Americans care?
Join Amb. Santiago Cabanas, Ben Judah, and Yascha Mounk— alongside AEI’s Dalibor Rohac and Stan Veuger— as they discuss Europe’s challenges and the way forward.
Agenda:
12:45 PM
Registration
1:00 PM
Welcome:
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
1:05 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Santiago Cabanas, Ambassador of Spain
Ben Judah, Hudson Institute
Yascha Mounk, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
Moderator:
Stan Veuger, AEI
2:10 PM
Q&A
2:30 PM
Adjournment
6. Managing Forced Displacement in Africa: How Collective Efforts Can More Effectively Address the Surge of Refugees and Displaced Persons|Thursday, May 23rd|9am-11am|United States Institute for Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
Africa hosts more than one-third of the world’s refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). This growing phenomenon impacts not only those fleeing conflict, but also the host communities and countries who now face complex logistical and humanitarian challenges. A comprehensive response to this problem must seek to address root causes, thereby preventing further displacement, and also find durable solutions for the many millions already displaced.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace, the African Ambassadors Group, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars for a discussion on forced displacement in Africa. The panel conversation will highlight African policy responses to displacement at the national, regional, and continental level, discuss current and anticipated challenges, and brainstorm innovative approaches. Follow the conversation with #AfricaDayUSIP.
Light refreshments will be provided.
Speakers:
H.E. Soorooj Phokeer, opening and closing remarks, Ambassador of the Republic of Mauritius
Carol Thompson O’Connell, opening remarks, Acting Assistant Secretary for Population, Refugees, and Migration, U.S. Department of State
Ger Duany, Regional Goodwill Ambassador for the East and Horn of Africa, UNHCR
H.E. Wilson Mutagaywa Kajumula Masilingi , Ambassador of the United Republic of Tanzania
H.E Mull Ssebujja Katende, Ambassador of the Republic of Uganda
Nancy Lindborg, moderator, President, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Powering the US-Japan Alliance| Thursday, May 23rd|11:30-1pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and the Global Energy Center for a discussion of how energy dependence on the Middle East is shaping Japan’s quest for energy security, prospects for US-Japan strategic cooperation, and the future of energy security in Asia.
Japan’s newest strategic energy plan promises to address domestic structural energy issues in the context of broader shifts in global energy trends. If successful, the new strategy will deliver significant improvements in efficiency, emissions, cost, and self-sufficiency by 2030, and again by 2050. At the same time, Japan, like much of Asia, continues to depend heavily on the Middle East for hydrocarbon imports. How is energy dependence on the Middle East shaping Asian geopolitics and strategic prospects for the US-Japan alliance? How feasible are Japan’s efforts to reduce its dependence on energy imports, and what does it mean for Japan’s relationships with the Middle East? How are infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy re-shaping energy geopolitics between both regions? Ultimately, what can the US-Japan alliance do to ensure energy security in a rapidly changing Indo-Pacific?
Lunch will be provided.
Featuring:
Prof. Koichiro Tanaka, Keio University and President of the Japanese Institute of Middle Eastern Economies
Ms. Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Mikkal E. Herberg, Senior Advisor National Bureau of Asian Research
Dr. Miyeon Oh, Director and Senior Fellow of the Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
8. Negotiating with China during Peacetime, Crisis and Conflict|Thursday, May 23rd|2:30pm-4pm|American Enterprise Institute|Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
While there is no shortage of discussion about how war between the US and China could break out, few have asked how such a war might end. During crisis or conflict, how can we draw China to the negotiating table? How has China historically ended its wars, and how might this inform how the US approaches China diplomatically in peacetime, crisis, and war?
In her new book, “The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime” (Cornell University Press, 2019), Oriana Skylar Mastro asks: How can we get from fighting to talking? Join Dr. Mastro, Susan Thornton and Tom as they discuss US diplomacy with China in an era of great-power competition.
Agenda:
2:15 PM
Registration
2:30 PM
Welcome and summary of the book:
Oriana Skylar Mastro, AEI
2:45 PM
Panel discussion
Participants:
Thomas J. Christensen, Columbia University
Susan A. Thornton, Yale University
Moderator:
Oriana Skylar Mastro, AEI
3:30 PM
Q&A
4:00 PM
Adjournment
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The state of State
President Trump’s FY2020 budget cuts the foreign affairs budget by 23%, while significantly boosting the Pentagon. The cut is mostly from Overseas Contingency Operations (wars and post-war stabilization and transition), which is zeroed out. Trump expects America’s future wars to be fought entirely without the civilian component that helps to fix the damage after the military is done. Yemenis, Libyans, Syrians, Somalis, South Sudanese, Ukrainians and others can expect little or no civilian assistance once their wars are over, if Trump gets his way.
The Administration also anticipates no need for international disaster assistance and a small fraction of what was spent in the past on refugees and migration. Big percentage cuts also hit the already very small National Endowment for Democracy (almost 2/3, to $67 million and change) and United States Institute of Peace (almost 50% to $19 million), which both engage in trying to prevent wars and in post-war efforts stabilization, the former by promoting democracy and the latter by promoting conflict resolution.
This presidential budget has little practical significance, since it will be dead on arrival in Congress, but it signals the Administration’s priorities all too clearly: it intends to continue to overuse the military instrument and to forget about civilian contributions to the projection of American power. Conventional diplomacy of the embassy/cocktail party type is not cut. In fact, the “representation” budget for that activity is increased. You wouldn’t want your big campaign contributors not to get reimbursed for entertaining foreigners. Trump is saying he doesn’t need state/nationbuilding, conflict prevention, post-war stabilization and reconstruction, countering violent extremism, refugee protection and repatriation, and response to emergencies abroad. In short, all the most pressing needs of the past two decades and more.
He is not alone in thinking we can ignore civilian commitments to national security. A good part of America believes Washington spends more than one-quarter of the national budget on foreign aid, apparently because they think it includes military spending abroad. If I thought that, I’d want to cut the foreign affairs budget too. In fact the non-military figure is around 1%, counting not only foreign aid but also all operations of State, AID and related agencies, including international organizations. I’ve had people tell me the reason we have a big national debt is foreign aid, which in fact accounts for an infinitesmal portion of it.
Congress fortunately has been fairly supportive of foreign affairs in recent years. The one virtue of this presidential proposal is that it is guaranteed to arouse opposition. Most members travel abroad and know what embassies, consulates, aid workers, and other civilians do. Most Americans do not, despite my efforts. At least 64% of Americans do not have a passport and therefore do not travel abroad or care much about what happens there, though they believe the U.S. should play a strong international leadership role. I imagine the Congress will save the day, as it did last year, and restore a lot of the funding the President would like to cut. Leadership depends as much on civilians as on the military.
Restoring the foreign affairs budget will depend however on a broader budget agreement, since sequestration will come back for 2020 if there is none. Trump will not want that, since sequestration would cut Defense back 13%, instead of the increase he is proposing. So yes, there is likely to be a compromise. But getting there will not be easy.
The state of State is weak, and getting weaker.
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What northeast Nigeria needs now
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted a discussion on February 13 about risks and resilience in Nigeria as well as the way to advance nutrition and security. The panel included Adesoji Adelaja, Professor at Michigan State University and Fellow at Wilson Center, Dina Esposito, Vice President of Technical Leadership at Mercy Corps, Philip DeCosse, Vice President of Chemonics, and Greg Collins, Deputy Assistant Administrator and Resilience Coordinator at the US Agency for International Development.
Adelaja explained the fact that it is taking some time for Nigeria to recognize the significance of resilience, countering violent extremism, and economic development strategies as ways to transform conflict. Much of the focus in the past was on the military approach, overlooking the socio-economic root causes. Since coming to power four years ago, the current government did its utmost to deal with those issues, but security and economic problems are still there. Adelaja stressed the importance of educating leaders who make critical decisions on stabilizing society, investing in think tanks, and empowering NGOs. With their support, Adelaja suggests, the government will be ready to face those challenges.
Many businesses left because of the conflict in the northeast of Nigeria. Internally displaced people do not have the capacity to continue their businesses. Others have just relocated and are ready to move back if the security conditions improve. According to Adelaja, the rebuilding will cost billions of dollars as schools, water systems, and delivery mechanisms need to be reestablished.
Just back from northern Nigeria, Esposito spelled out the Mercy Corps resilience and risk assessment, which identifies how people cope and adapt in crises settings. There is still a huge reliance on old and new social networks like family, friends, and savings groups. People are relying much more on local markets than on government or NGOs to survive, making incentivizing and stocking the markets a crucial element in building resilience. Young people in Nigeria are asking for access to education, employability, startup capital, access to information, and personal mobility as ways to create flourishing businesses.
Regarding the resilience of the market, DeCosse spoke about the challenges in convincing players to move to conflict zones. He stressed the importance of the large private sector investors, but also smaller enterprises in revitalizing the local economy. He said that tremendous efforts had been made in trying to figure out how risk reduction can happen in conflict zones, and whether microfinance is the most feasible approach, or it is time to start thinking of establishing banks. With the experience available, DeCosse suggested a combination of information technology and outreach agents as well as working with banks to address the challenges.
Representing Feed the Future organization, Collins perceived what is happening in Nigeria as part of a broader phenomenon manifested in other countries in the Sahel such as Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Somalia. Perennial humanitarian risks are a development challenge. Without development, little progress will be made in northeast Nigeria. People who escape poverty end up falling into poverty again due to their exposure to a range of stresses and shocks like climate change, environmental degradation, population growth, and conflict volatility. In Ethiopia, from 1999 to 2009, 60% of the people fell back to poverty and in Kenya 40% over a similar period. Instead of access to financial services and markets, Collins suggested a diverse, comprehensive portfolio to address the problems in northeast Nigeria and elsewhere by combining different sectors like health, conflict and governance, water and sanitation, etc.
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Peace Picks: October 22 – 28
1. Completing Europe: Will Macedonia seize its moment? | Monday, October 22, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:15 pm | Atlantic Council | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 2005 | Register Here
On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.
Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?
Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO
Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council
2. Turmoil in Nicaragua: Is there an end in sight? | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 9:00 am – 11:00 am | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.
According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.
Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center
Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee
Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University
3. Israel in a Turbulent Region: A Conversation with Ephraim Sneh | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Wilson Center | 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center
General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member
4. On the Brink of Brexit: The United Kingdom, Ireland and Europe | Tuesday, October 23, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”
On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.
Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe
Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK
Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting
Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy
Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times
5. The Future of AMISOM | Wednesday, October 24, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:30 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.
The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.
Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program
6. US Policy & The War in Yemen | Thursday, October 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 pm | Brookings Institute | Falk Auditorium: 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse
Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.
Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps
Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation
Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
7. Next Steps for US Strategy in Syria | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.
Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations
Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom
8. Prevent to Protect: From Counter-Radicalization to Disengagement | Friday, October 26, 2018 | 2:00pm – 3:00 pm | Center for Strategic & International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.
“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:
- Shielding individuals from radicalization
- Widening the detection and prevention network
- Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
- Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
- Tailoring disengagement schemes
After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.
Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization
Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program
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