Tag: South Korea
Stevenson’s army, April 26
– US will reassure South Korea over nuclear weapons, says WSJ. More background from NYT.
-Speaker McCarthy changed the debt bill to appease members favoring ethanol and set rule avoiding amendments except for one.
– Lawfare reviews book on broken promises to Ukraine over nukes.
– WaPo tells how to build a SCIF.
– USA Today depicts Us evacuations from Sudan.
-Axios discloses Cyber Command/CISA secret operations [scroll to second story]
-Some in DOD happy at Tucker Carlson’s firing.
– US helped Guaido escape to Florida
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 11
– Politico reports on the GOP push to attack Mexico.
– Politico profiles Elbridge Colby, the anti-neocon.
-Economist sees US-China competition in Indian Ocean
– Blowback from intell leaks: South Korea. Lots of places.
– WaPo says Egypt planned to sell arms to Russia
-Amy Zegart assesses US intelligence challenges.
Bloomberg opinion is behind a paywall, but look at these recent points.
Let Bloomberg Opinion columnist Minxin Pei — with assistance from Bloomberg’s editorial board — calibrate your concerns. The perception of China’s increasing power tends to exceed the reality of it. Here are five reasons that is true.
- China’s military strength is overhyped: “For all its talk about the decline of the West and rise of the East, China remains a significantly weaker power than the US on practically all fronts. What China sees as unfair practices — including US surveillance operations in international airspace and waters near the Chinese coast — are merely a manifestation of the exercise of US power in its rivalry with a weaker adversary.”
- On top of that, Minxin says, China talks a big game on national ambitions but can’t follow through: “In case after case, leaders in Beijing have identified top national priorities and lavished them with support. And time after time, this ‘whole-of-nation’ effort, meant to mobilize the talent and resources of a giant country, has led only to waste, graft and failure.”
- Bloomberg’s editorial board says Washington frets about China’s financial leverage over the US, but that’s also overhyped: “Less than 2% of US foreign direct investment is held in China, and US venture-capital companies have invested only about $60 billion in Chinese startups since 2010, compared with $1.3 trillion in the US.”
- The China-Russia alliance is also less than it seems, Minxin writes, adding that influence doesn’t equal leverage: “The meagerness of the economic deals signed during Xi Jingping’s visit to Moscow — which glaringly omitted the second gas pipeline from Russia to China — indicates that China is not ready to go all in, at least for now. This portends trouble” for any alliance between the two nations.
- And the Saudi deal was significant, but the US remains firmly in control: “Those lamenting America’s apparent loss of influence in the Middle East should know that this is one of the costs of focusing US attention and resources on the competition with China — and it’s one the US can afford to pay.”
Bonus China Reading:
- US Must Still Fight for Taiwan’s Hearts and Minds: Nisid Hajari
- US ‘Guardrails’ With China Are Shaky at Best: Hal Brands
- The US, UK and Australia Send China a Message: James Stavridis
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 1
– Air Force opposes Chinese-owned corn mill
– Ukraine hasn’t boosted US defense firms.
– But CSIS sees problems with US industrial base.
– CSIS also worries about US weapons inventories.
– AP says more weapons going to Korea.
– Reuters says longer-range rockets going to Ukraine.
– Pew sees bigger partisan divide on support to Ukraine.
– US says Russia is violating New Start treaty. In FT, Rose Gottemoeller says this could be fixed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 20-23
Charlie has been back a few days, but I’ve been down for the count, so here is a massive catchup edition:
January 23:
The ever-valuable D Brief has this: Norway’s military chief said around 180,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured in Ukraine so far. “Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers,” and “Ukrainian losses are probably over 100,000 dead or wounded,” Defense Minister Eirik Kristoffersen told TV2 on Sunday. He also said an estimated 30,000 civilians have been killed in the war so far, though he didn’t elaborate on how he arrived at any of his numbers.
[This is interesting because the two subjects NOT covered by the western media are Ukrainian casualties and operational restrictions imposed by NATO couontries.]
– We talked in class about George Santos. New York magazine claims to list all of his lies.
– The pending appointment of Jeff Zients to be WH chief of staff resurrected this story about how he failed to create a Department of Trade. As we’ll discuss in class, congressional committees weren’t happy with either the plan or the reorganization power Zients proposed because it weakened their jurisdiction.
-The Economist often has clever headlines. Politico wins the prize this week for: Who Shot the Serif?
January 22:
Happy Year of the Rabbit!
As I read the accumulated papers, I see these items of special interest:
– Congress and the administration are heading to a fight over arms to Turkey.
– Rifts are emerging in NATO over Ukraine aid.
– NYT has background on Taiwan’s “ambassador”
– Paul Kane laments the retirement of Senate “work horses” and includes data on diminished voting on amendments [because of the filled “amendment tree”]
– Ezra Klein analyzes disconnects in the GOP and interviews an author who says GOP politicians have been dominated by conservative media.
– NYT explains how US got $31 trillion debt.
January 20:
I see that a lot has been happening during my travels. The big news on Ukraine is the dispute between US & Germany over tanks. A good catch-up piece is today’s D Brief, a newsletter worth reading regularly.
WaPo also has good background on Ukraine planning. The CIA Director has also been meeting in Kyiv. WSJ has good info on weapons issues.
The Inspectors General for DOD, State & AID have a combined report on US assistance to Ukraine.
On China & Taiwan, WOTR had a good explanation of the delivery delays in US arms for Taipei. It turns out that National Guard units have been training Taiwanese. And WSJ says China’s brick & road initiative is faltering.
Good news for Congress: NYT says lawmakers changed the rules that in effect give them a $34,000 pay boost which they never would have voted for directly.
More good news at State: Sec. Blinken has ordered a shift from Times New Roman fonts for official documents to Calibri. When I worked on the Policy Planning Staff I failed to persuade Under Secretary Pickering to take advantage of the retiring of the Wang Computers and allow overseas cables to be written with upper and lower case letters instead of the required [by the former technology] ALL CAPS ALL THE TIME.
Also January 20:
Many of you know that I favor a return to Regular Order in Congress, the way the armed services committees do the NDAA, with vigorous oversight, a bill open to many amendments, and a compromise process that allows the ill to be signed into law — for 62 years now. But both Democratic and Republican leaders have opposed those open rules. Speaker McCarthy now wants to bring them back. Here’s what happened last time.
Harlan Ullman, the original proponent of shock and awe tactics, now calls for a major revision of US defense strategy.
Fletcher’s Dan Drezner puts his economic statecraft syllabus in his Substack column. I like his work and will review this for things I should be assigning.
The Partnership for Public Service has a guidebook for new officials that has a lot of good ideas on how to be an effective bureaucrat. I probably should make it required reading.
On Politico a sometime historian compares FDR’s help to Britain before Pearl Harbor to the West’s help to Ukraine today. Good background, but I’d note that FDR was constrained by US public and congressional opinion, not by a fear of provoking war with Hitler. Biden is limited by concerns about Russia reactions.
Two European analysts see conflicts of interest in writers about nuclear weapons policy.
A new CSIS report says we should be thinking seriously about letting South Korea get nukes.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A lot to fear this Halloween, but…
The tragic and deadly stampede in Seoul during a Halloween celebration reminds us that there are real things to fear this year. Here is my list:
- Russian President Putin’s desperate efforts to prevent defeat in Ukraine.
- Chinese President Xi’s equally desperate efforts to exert hegemony in East Asia before his country’s inevitable demographic and likely economic decline.
- A delegitimized American election November 8, leading to more political violence.
- A deep recession that renews identity-based populism.
Putin’s last stand
Russian forces in Ukraine are retreating. The Ukrainian Army routed them in the northeast. In the south, the Russians are holding, but just barely. Ukraine’s air and sea drone attack on Russian naval ships in the Black Sea was a success. But it prompted Moscow to suspend the agreement that allowed export of Ukrainian grain. That will reduce revenue to Kyiv and jack up food prices in many of the most food insecure parts of the world.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning a “dirty bomb” attack using radioactive material. This is not a credible accusation, but it likely reflects what the Russians themselves are thinking of doing. The ultimate Russian threat is use of nuclear weapons. Putin has implied as much. That would bring a US conventional response of massive proportions. It can’t be ruled out, because the decisions of a single person are always subject to uncertainty. But it would spell the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want that.
Xi’s danger zone
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in their new book that the threat from China to US regional and global hegemony will peak in the 2020s. After that Beijing will be preoccupied with internal demographic, social, and economic problems. Impending decline, after a long period of advance, will motivate Xi to challenge the US sooner rather than later. Xi consolidated autocratic power at the recent 20th Communist Party Congress. There will be few checks and balances to offset his inclinations.
We’ve seen in Ukraine how catastrophic the decisions of one man can be. We saw it also in George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, which went virtually uncontested within the US. China has already swallowed Macau and Hong Kong. Xi wants to do likewise with Taiwan. But Taiwan is vital to the US capability of protecting its allies in East Asia, in particular South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The US would need to do its best to support Taiwan. A China/Taiwan war will make the stakes in Ukraine, and the violence, seem relatively small.
The American election at risk
On November 8 the US will go to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, in addition to many state and local officials. Right-wing election deniers are threatening the integrity of the election in many ways. These include disinformation about the process, threats against voters and election officials, and election officials and candidates who themselves are deniers and prepared to tip the balance. There is a real risk of violence if the election returns Democratic majorities to either the House or Senate, or both. There is also a real risk that Democrats will view Republican wins as illegitimate, though electoral violence from the left is less likely.
This election has significance beyond November 8. It is a dress rehearsal for 2024, when the election-denier-in-chief, Donald Trump, hopes to return as the Republican candidate for President. If he does, it is hard to picture a peaceful election. It is likely he will be indicted for national security violations and possibly also for tax fraud before 2024. Justified though those indictments may be, they will not improve the prospects for stability in the next two years.
An impending recession
The Federal Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates sharply to curb inflation, which has peaked around 8% on a yearly basis. While the US labor market is still tight and modest growth continues, the rest of the world is heading into a recession. The strong dollar, the war in Ukraine, and tension in East Asia are major factors. It is hard to believe that a global downturn won’t come home to roost in the US as well.
Inflation has already become a major issue in the November 8 election campaign. But if a recession hits in 2023, as many predict, the 2024 election could also be affected. Republican prospects will be better if Trump is not the candidate, but in any event American elections are often a referendum on the economy. An aging President Biden will find it hard to get re-elected if the downturn persists into 2024.
Scary Halloween
It’s a scary Halloween, even without the masks. But the defeat of President Bolsonaro in Brazil is a contrary indicator. Let’s hope it is an early indication that prospects are better than they appear!
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Stevenson’s army, May 20
– The President is in South Korea. FT says Biden softened IPEF language to gain support.
– WaPo notes continuing interagency fight over China tariffs.
– WSJ says China wants elites to cut foreign investments.
– WaPo says Biden has small inner circle of officials.
– NYT reports Russians relieved of duty in Ukraine.
– NYT has good analysis of US aid to Ukraine.
– NYT says Hungary is rich on cheap Russian oil.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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