Tag: Sri Lanka
Stevenson’s army, July 14
But let’s avoid “Aux armes, citoyens,
Formez vos bataillons,
Marchons, marchons !”
– NYT says there is an emerging deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports.
– Economist has background on the grain shortage.
– NYT says Israel has been cooperating with Arab states to shoot down Iranian drones.
– FP says China is a loser in the Sri Lanka conflict.
– US & China trade blame in South China Sea incident.
– After classified briefing on semiconductors, suggestions that Congress may carve out a separate bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Development and reconciliation in Sri Lanka
SAIS student Stephanie Billingham reports:
The tone was optimistic and conciliatory at USIP’s event with Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera last Thursday. Part of the weeklong inaugural “U.S.-Sri Lanka Partnership Dialogue,” the program consisted of Assistant Secretary of State Nisha Biswal‘s introduction and Foreign Minister Samaraweera remarks as well as a question of and answer session moderated by Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation.
Foreign Minister Samaraweera offered a brief history of Sri Lanka. Upon independence in 1948 it had one of the brightest futures among the former colonies, as the oldest Asian democracy with development indicators unparalleled in the developing world. Tragically, all that potential was lost. Devoid of strong enough leadership, Sri Lanka succumbed to inter-communal violence, unable to come to terms with its multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic, multi-religious population. This need to embrace diversity and ensure that it is protected is at the heart of the current “rainbow coalition’s” agenda, which will move forward with constitutional reform and reconciliation processes over the next year.
Samaraweera cited minority grievances as the driving force of extremism and the eventual cause of the war as well as the subsequent necessity of constitutional reform to protect minorities and their interests. There was a golden moment of opportunity for re-integration and welcome to the warring parties, which was “cruelly squandered to serve the dynastic ambitions of the ruling family at the time.” Victory was followed by a “rampage of triumphalism alienating the Tamil people further.”
That era ended with the coalition of the United National Party (UNP) with President Sirisena, which is ushering in a “new culture of consensus… and much needed political stability.” Sri Lankan political parties are moving beyond confrontation for short-term gains to acting for the benefit of the country as a whole. In particular, he mentioned the incredible work of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in cooperating with the national coalition government, all parties working to “restore the dignity of our nation, our people, and our military.”
On the constitution, Samaraweera said that reforms are necessary to ensure that violence will never occur again. “All stakeholders [must] feel that their development is being cared for and their lives are improving.” The linkage between development and reconciliation is the issue to which the Foreign Minister pays the greatest attention, as Sri Lanka needs help from the international community to “kick-start the economy and catalyze our development journey.” The government’s strategy depends on encouraging foreign direct investment to make trade more competitive and improve productivity. Accordingly, the new government is “very seriously exploring the possibility of applying to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.”
Samaraweera hoped in closing that with the aid of the international community, including the US, Sri Lanka will “finally succeed in creating a country where each individual can live and work with dignity, with self-esteem and confidence in the future.”
A question and answer period followed, which brought up multiple issues, the most important of which were demilitarization of the north and land release; international participation in the special tribunals; and devolution of powers.
On demilitarization in the North and East, Samaraweera reiterated the government’s commitment to slow but steady release of land back to civilians as well as reducing the number of soldiers by 37%. Furthermore, over the next few months, businesses owned and run by the military would be put under civilian administration and those soldiers involved in these activities removed from the area (but he did not comment on how those soldiers would then be employed).
Another question focused on the President’s recent statement that international participation is not needed in the special courts, despite the resolution Sri Lanka co-sponsored at the UN Human Rights Council that called for international involvement. Samaraweera responded that there are many ways in which the international community can be involved in the special tribunals, from prosecutors to investigators of war crimes. The government will hold to the resolution, he said.
One question concerned the inclusion of devolution of powers in the new constitution, addressing a key grievance of the Tamil population. Samaraweera stated that the new Constitution would protect minority rights and advance their interests, without responding specifically on devolution.
Samaraweera did not discuss one important aspect of Sri Lankan post-war stabilization: how the government will deal with the rise of Buddhist extremism, though he acknowledged that some religious leaders are fanning the flames of inter-communal distrust.
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Peace Picks, January 11-15
- Japan-South Korea Relations and Prospects for a U.S. Role in Historical Reconciliation in East Asia | Monday, January 11th | 9:00-12:00 | The Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Expectations are high that a landmark agreement on the legacies of World War II reached between Japan and South Korea will allow the two countries to further bilateral relations. Under the December 2015 agreement, Tokyo and Seoul stated they reached a “final and irrevocable resolution” regarding Korean women who were forced to serve as sex slaves under Japanese occupation. The deal is expected to allow the two countries to work more closely together on issues of mutual concern amid a rapidly changing economic, political, and security landscape in East Asia. For the United States too, successful implementation of the agreement is critical to bring its two closest allies in the region together and to establish a strong trilateral alliance that would work together to face common challenges. In this forum, scholars of history and international relations will discuss how to address issues of historical contention, and they will also discuss what role the United States could play to ensure that historical reconciliation between South Korea and Japan continues to move forward. See here for a full list of panels and speakers.
- Guantanamo Bay: Year 14 | Monday, January 11th | 3:00-4:45 | New America | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On January 22, 2009, just days after becoming president, Barack Obama issued Executive Order 13492, ordering the closure of the detention facilities at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Now in the last year of his presidency, 107 detainees remain. January 11th marks the 14th anniversary of the prison’s creation.New America is pleased to welcome Dr. Karen Greenberg, Director of the Center on National Security at Fordham University and author of The Least Worst Place: Guantanamo’s First 100 Days, Thomas B. Wilner, a lawyer with Shearman & Sterling LLP and co-founder of Close Guantanamo, who was the Counsel of Record to Guantanamo detainees in two U.S. Supreme Court decisions, and Andy Worthington, co-founder of Close Guantanamo and the author of The Guantanamo Files: The Stories of the 774 Detainees in America’s Illegal Prison, for a discussion about what can or can’t be done in the next year, and whether President Obama’s promise will ever be fulfilled. Peter Bergen, Vice President of New America, will moderate the discussion Join the conversation online using #GTMO14th and following @NatSecNAF.
- Building Afghanistan’s Economy Through Regional Connectivity | Tuesday, January 12th | 3:00-4:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council for a special conversation with Dr. Mohammad Humayon Qayoumi on the economy of Afghanistan. More than a year after coming into power, Afghanistan’s National Unity Government has sought to re-establish Afghanistan’s role as a roundabout for economic connectivity between Central, South and East Asia, and Europe. With new progress made in the areas of power and gas transmission, fiber-optic linkages and movement of goods, the government has also launched a Jobs for Peace Plan, which seeks to provide near term economic opportunity across the country and soften the economic impact caused by the military drawdown. How will Afghanistan’s plans advance its self-reliance reform agenda, link its economy to the region, and provide jobs to its citizens? How can the US-Afghan strategic partnership best advance common security and economic interests? Join us for a special session with Dr. Qayoumi, Chief Advisor to President Ghani for infrastructure, IT and human capital who will provide firsthand what the Afghan government has in store to revive the Afghan economy. The conversation will be moderated by the Hon. James Cunningham, Senior Fellow and Khalilzad Chair, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council.On Twitter? Follow @ACSouthAsia and use #ACAfghanistan
- Blood Oil: Tyrants, Violence, and the Rules that Run the World | Tuesday, January 12th | 4:00-5:30 | Center for Global Development | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The slave trade, colonial rule and apartheid were once all legal. Hard power then won lawful authority: might literally made legal rights. The global revolutions that abolished those coercive rights were extraordinary—yet they left today’s multi-trillion trade in oil and minerals untouched. Current law incentivizes authoritarianism, conflict and corruption so strongly that oil states in the developing world today are no freer, no richer and no more peaceful than they were in 1980. All of the recent reforms around extractives—from transparency to certification to oil-to-cash—point toward the modern idea that the people, not power, should have the ultimate right to control a country’s resources. Can the US lead the West toward the next global revolution, by abolishing its legal trade in authoritarian oil and conflict minerals? Join us for a conversation with Leif Wenar, Chair of Philosophy and Law, King’s College London and author of Blood Oil, and Todd Moss, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Fellow, Center for Global Development and author of Oil to Cash: Fighting the Resource Curse through Cash Transfers.
- The Europe-Russia Relationship: From the Ukraine Crisis and the Rise of the Far Right to the War in Syria | Thursday, January 15th | 12:30-2:00 | GWU Elliot School of International Affairs | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Two years ago, Ukraine’s Euromaidan revolution set off a new era in the Europe- Russia relationship. Europe responded to the annexation of Crimea with economic sanctions, prompting Russia to ban some European imports. Last fall, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine was overshadowed by Europe’s refugee crisis, Moscow’s strikes in Syria, and the Paris attacks. Taking advantage of rising anti-immigration sentiment and Islamophobia, Europe’s far-right parties, whose leaders express their admiration for President Putin, have fared well at the polls. European leaders must now work with Russia on conflict resolution in the Middle East while managing growing political polarization at home and helping Ukraine stabilize. Join us for a discussion on the topic featuring Marie Mendras, Transatlantic Academy; Alina Polyakova, Atlantic Council; and Marlene Laruelle, Research Professor of International Affairs; Director, Central Asia Program; Associate Director, Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies, GW. Jeff Mankoff of the Center for Strategic and International Studies will moderate the discussion.
- Book Launch: The Outcast Majority: War, Development, and Youth in Africa | Thursday, January 14th | 2:00-3:00 | The Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | While African youth are demographically dominant, most see themselves as members of an outcast minority. Their outlier perspective directly informs the fresh and compelling new thinking about war, development, and youth in The Outcast Majority: War, Development, and Youth in Africa by former Wilson Center fellow and youth expert Dr. Marc Sommers. Featuring interviews with development experts and young people, this book contrasts forces that shape and propel youth lives in war and post-war Africa with those that influence and constrain the international development aid enterprise. With an eye on the colossal populations of excluded and profoundly undervalued youth in conflict-affected Africa and far beyond, the concluding framework delivers practical steps for making development work significantly more relevant and effective.Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program in the 5th floor conference room as we speak with Dr. Sommers about his latest publication and examine the implications of his research for international development policy. This event will feature a conversation between Dr. Sommers and Mr. Mark Hannafin, Executive Secretary and Senior National Security Adviser at USAID and co-chair of the new USAID policy on youth in development. Monde Muyangwa, Africa Program Director, will moderate the conversation.
- Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution: On 5th Anniversary, What’s Next? | Thursday, January 14th | 2:30-4:00 | US Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Five years ago this month, the Tunisian people’s protests calling for respect of their civil liberties resulted in the downfall of the 24-year authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and the start of a rocky but largely peaceful process toward an inclusive political system. Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace and the International Republican Institute on Jan. 14 as we commemorate the 5th Anniversary of the Jasmine Revolution and examine the issues facing the country in the coming year and how the international community can help.Tunisia is confronting the regional rise of violent extremism that has led to terrorist attacks in its own country, spotlighting the struggle to balance security and human rights. Its frail economy remains a danger to social peace, with unemployment even higher than when the Jasmine Revolution began. Many of Tunisia’s youth are especially vulnerable to these factors.The panelists will consider these issues as well as specific decisions coming up in 2016, including the political situation, decentralization and economic reform. Join the conversation on Twitter with #Tunisia5. Speakers include: Ambassador Faycal Gouia, Embassy of the Republic of Tunisia; Scott Mastic, International Republican Institute; and Amy Hawthorne, Project on Middle East Democracy; Linda Bishai, U.S. Institute of Peace, will moderate the discussion, and Ambassador William B. Taylor will give opening remarks.
- Kazakhstan Nationbuilding and Kazakh Nationalism: A Debate | Thursday, January 14th | 3:00-6:00 | GWU Elliot School of International Affairs | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A new social activism has emerged in Kazakhstan, organized by different small groups self-defining as Kazakh nationalists. Who are they? What is their audience? What political and national projects do they advance? How do they position themselves toward the current authorities, the relationship to Russia, to the Islamic world, and to their Central Asian neighbors?Join us for a discussion with activists representative of this new trend and a roundtable with DC-based experts. Speakers include: Aidos Sarym, Altynbek Sarsenbayuly Foundation; Valikhan Tuleshov, Almaty Management University; Serik Beissembayev, Central Asia Program Visiting Fellow and Center of Social and Political Studies ‘Strategy’ in Almaty; Ulan Bigozhin, Doctoral Student at Indiana University; and Marat Raimkhanov, Hubert Humphrey Fellow at the University of Maryland.
- Foreign Intervention in South Asia: A Case Study from Sri Lanka | Thursday, January 14th | 3:30-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation with a panel of experts to discuss Norway’s experience mediating conflict in Sri Lanka, and explore the role foreign actors play in South Asia more broadly.Across South Asia, external actors have often intervened to mediate conflict and build stability. Despite best efforts and often better resources, international involvement in South Asian conflicts has often faltered from lack of local support or consensus coupled with concerns over sovereignty. This was the case in Sri Lanka, where a five-year long Norwegian-led mediation process between the Tamil Tigers and Sri Lankan government unraveled, in part, due to a failure in securing bipartisan political support. The South Asia Center will convene a panel of experts to discuss Norway’s experience mediating conflict in Sri Lanka, and explore the role foreign actors play in South Asia more broadly. Speakers include Mark Salter, Author of To End a Civil War; Richard L. Armitage, President, Armitage International, L.C.; and Erik Solheim, Development Assistance Committee Chair, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The discussion will be moderated by Bharath Gopalaswamy, Director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council.
On Twitter? Follow @ACSouthAsia and use #ACSriLanka. - The Arab Spring Five Years Later: Towards Greater Inclusiveness | Friday, January 15th | 10:15-11:45 | The Brookings Institution | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Five years have passed since the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia sparked revolts around the Arab world and the beginning of the Arab Spring. Despite high hopes that the Arab world was entering a new era of freedom, economic growth, and social justice, the transition turned out to be long and difficult, with the Arab world now in turmoil with revolutions, counter revolutions, wars, civil strife, and the worst refugee crisis of our times. The response to the Arab Spring and its aftermath has focused almost exclusively on political and security issues, and on the very divisive questions of national identity and political regimes. Economic and social questions have been put on the back burner. On January 15, Global Economy and Development at Brookings will host a discussion on a new book, The Arab Spring Five Years Later, which explores the critical economic and social issues driving the Arab Spring agenda and the real economic grievances that must be addressed in order to achieve peace, stability, and successful political transitions as well as provides an approach to addressing those grievances. Hafez Ghanem and Shinchi Yamanaka will present the key findings of the book, followed by a panel discussion featuring Masood Ahmed, Director of the Middle East Department, IMF; Sanjay Pradhan, CEO, Open Government Partnership; and Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings. The panel will be moderated by Shanta Devarajan, Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region, World Bank.
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Ready or not, here comes transitional justice
I got to Colombo just two days ago. I’ve spent most of the time walking and exploring this bustling town that eats lots of very spicy curry and somehow manages to ignore the spectacular Indian Ocean that lies just off its far too rundown shores. This is not Beirut, Tel Aviv or Miami, despite the gaggle of high-rise hotels in the central Fort district.
Friday afternoon I made it over to the Sri Lanka Foundation for a discussion of transitional justice chaired by Colombo University law professor Dinesha Samaratne, with Centre for Policy Alternatives lawyer Bhavani Fonseka and NYU professor Allen Feldman presenting. The focus of the session was on the applicability (or not) of South Africa’s experience with its Truth and Reconciliation Commission and amnesty, but it in fact ranged far more widely.
Sri Lanka ended its war against the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) in 2009 with a government victory over the insurgents, who were trying to establish an independent Tamil state. A year ago (almost to the day), President Rajapakse, who won the war, stepped aside, defeated at the polls by one of his sidekicks, now President Sirisena. He and parts of Rajapakse political coalition cooperated with the leader of the opposition, now Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, to form a “consensual” government, whose forces won a clear parliamentary majority in August.
By all reports, the atmosphere in Sri Lanka has changed dramatically since last January. Repression is far less in evidence. People feel free to speak their minds. The Rajapaksa government, which included close relatives of the president, was triumphalist, centralizing and moving in the direction of autocracy. A constitutional amendment has undone at least part of the damage and strengthened independent commissions. The Sirisena government has said it is committed to truth, justice and reconciliation. It wants a new constitution.
Whereas Rajapaksa rejected international involvement in the war’s aftermath, the Sirisena government agreed to a UN Human Rights Council resolution that lays out a process that includes a special court with still undefined international participation, a truth and reconciliation process, accounting for missing persons (about 16,000) and compensation to victims. All who spoke agreed there can be no backing away from this commitment.
But none of this has happened yet, and lots of important details are still undecided. Fonseka emphasized that those decisions are up to Sri Lankans, who need to make it clear what they want, including things that go beyond what the UN suggested like security sector reform and vetting of officials. What will the balance be between truth and justice? While it is clear that there can be no amnesty for the most serious crimes, what incentives will perpetrators have to talk? How will it be possible to avoid prioritizing some victims over others? It is not even clear what time period the transitional justice process will cover (the civil war lasted, off and on, for 26 years). A government task force has been formed for public consultations, which will last however only two and a half months.
Discussion of the South African experience, led principally by Feldman, underlined that there was no blanket amnesty there. Relatively few people who sought amnesty received it. Forensic investigations are still going on, a South African embassy official said, that sometimes contradict the testimony perpetrators provided to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. The main impact of the South African process was to make it impossible to continue to deny what had happened and to clarify the political motives that underlay the behavior of both sides. Citizens, Feldman underlined with reference to Solon, need to participate in the post-war process, as they did in the war. The consequences should be democratizing, equalizing the voices of victims with those of perpetrators.
Samaratne and others in the audience made it clear that the issues the war raised did not end with the war. There have been reports Feldman cited of post-war cases of torture, even some abuses during the last year Fonseka said. The problem is that the justice system has crumbled. It needs to be reconstructed. The current Sri Lankan legal framework and institutions are not adequate to the challenges they face.
Sri Lanka is not ready for transitional justice, one participant concluded. The state should be held accountable for what was done in its name. From this perspective, even limited amnesty risks reducing deterrence, which depends on punishment.The situation in South Africa was dramatically different: there the oppressed came to power and magnanimously agreed to a generous Truth and Reconciliation process. In Sri Lanka , many of the same people are in power and are likely to want to protect themselves. People in the north of the country (where the insurgency was concentrated) are still abused and still afraid.The victims want justice before reconciliation.
That expectation will not be easy to fulfill. Ready or not, transitional justice in some form is on its way.
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