Tag: Sudan
Stevenson’s army, April 16
– NYT tells how its reporters found Teixiera
– WaPo has timeline for document postings.
– Pentagon used Discord for recruiting.
– Vox has background on Sudan’s clash of armed forces.
– FT says China blocks Blinken trip pending balloon resolution.
– FP excerpts interview with Larry Summers about many issues.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Democracy on the defensive, but not lost yet
I read the Biden/Putin phone call on Tuesday and the Summit of Democracies differently from many others. The former was a clear even if not conclusive win for the US. The latter is more equivocal.
President Putin went into the phone call having mounted most of an invasion force and demanding a binding legal prohibition on Ukraine joining NATO. He came out accepting an official-level dialogue with Washington on European security. That is a win for Biden, even if the invasion force remains in place for now. Moscow will continue at the dialogue to demand a commitment that Ukraine not join NATO, but the Americans won’t yield on that.
Ironically, the best guarantee that Kiev won’t join NATO lies in the current NATO members, few of whom are prepared to take on an obligation to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Redoubling the irony: Putin’s mounting of an invasion force has convinced any loyal Ukrainian that NATO membership is highly desirable. That makes two own goals for Putin: he has spent a fortune on an invasion force that was unnecessary and counterproductive.
The Summit of Democracies convening remotely today is harder to judge. It is one more sign of what we already know: democracy is under attack both in the US and in many places abroad. The Republican campaign against the validity of the 2020 US election and Republican legislation limiting the franchise in many states have cast doubt on whether the US can survive as a democracy. Events in Myanmar, Sudan, Belarus, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and other places have cast more than doubts. Democracy in all those places has suffered severe setbacks in the past year. Not to mention Russia, Serbia, Hungary, Brazil, and other countries that are suffering longer-term erosion of at least semi-democratic institutions and processes. Not to mention the survival of long-standing authoritarian regimes in Syria, Jordan, the Gulf, China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
What good can the Summit of Democracies do? It is difficult to judge. I suppose preparations for it in countries invited and reactions to it in countries not invited may marginally increase pressure for upholding democratic values. Certainly Washington is well aware of its own limitations as a leader of the democratic world and convener of the Summit. The Biden Administration isn’t doing all it might, as it has hesitated to eliminate the anti-democratic filibuster in order to pass Federal voting rights legislation, but it is prosecuting January 6 rioters and suing states that limit voting rights in Federal court.
There is a possibility that some would-be authoritarians in other places will find themselves pressured and even on the ropes, but the overall trend appears to be in their direction. Authoritarians have learned how to weather less draconian political environments, as totalitarian control has become far more difficult due to modern communications and social media. They have also learned how to help each other survive, in order to avoid any domino effects, especially among neighbors. The pendulum has swung in the authoritarian direction, due in part to the corona virus epidemic and the consequent economic slowdown as well as the rallying cries of ethnic/sectarian/linguistic/racial nationalists.
The pendulum can also swing in the other direction, but the Summit looks incapable of making that happen. A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine, or US agreement to block Ukraine from NATO membership, would make things much worse than they already are. Democracy is on the defensive, but not lost yet.
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Stevenson’s army, November 22
[This is the 58th anniversary of the assassination of President Kennedy.]
– FT has more on the Chinese hypersonic missile test.
– WSJ says US thwarted secret Chinese project in UAE.
– US warns allies of Russia attack on Ukraine.
– WaPo says DOD reviews NATO exercises, concerned they may be too provocative.
-NYT says Iranian nuclear programs revive despite Israeli attacks.
-Carnegie analysts see clash between US security and democracy interests.
– Sudan’s PM restored to position.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 30
– WaPo summarizes the intelligence report on Covid19’s origins. Here’s the document.
– NSA Sullivan & USTR Tai clash over China sanctions.
– NYT notes complications facing nuclear subs for Australia.
– CRS has some interesting new reports — on emerging military technologies and on legislation related to foreign coups.
– NYT tells of US efforts to head off Sudan coup.
– Politico says Mike Pence spoke to rally of anti-Iranian group once listed as terrorist.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 2-6, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Restoring a federal governance system in Sudan | Aug 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here
The signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in October 2020, and a constitutional decree issued in March 2021 by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, are both significant markers towards the restoration of a federal governance system in Sudan. Establishing a decentralized system of governance that bridges the development gap between the centre and the regions is a significant challenge. But it is hoped that the genuine devolution of power will support peace-building, result in more equitable distribution of wealth and resources, and amplify local priorities in Sudan’s regions.
At this event, panellists will discuss the implementation of a new federal governance architecture in Sudan, the establishment of structures that will ensure more equitable development across the country and priorities for local governance.
Speakers:
Hon. Adeeb Yousif
Governor of Central Darfur, Republic of Sudan
Anwar Elhaj
Researcher and Political Analyst
Dr. Mona Mohamed Taha Ayoub
Lecturer, Institute of Public Administration and Federalism, University of Khartoum
Dr. Louise Walker
Chargé d’Affaires, British Embassy in Sudan
Ahmed Soliman (Chair)
Research Fellow at the Africa Programme, Chatham House
- Turkey-Israel relations in a changing geopolitical landscape | Aug 4, 2021 | 8:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been historically low since a diplomatic rift in 2010, characterized by an atmosphere of mutual distrust and punctuated by recurring crises. Historically, as the United States’ two closest allies in the region, Turkey and Israel had enjoyed a close strategic relationship. Now, with changing regional dynamics in the form of the Abraham Accords, mutual concerns about the Syrian War and Iran’s role in the region, and the recent change in Israel’s government present new opportunities and environments for the two countries to engage in dialogue.
This panel will discuss the outlook for the relation between these two regional powers.
Speakers:
Jonathan H. Ferziger
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Former Bloomberg Middle East Correspondent
Amb. Mithat Rende
Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Turkey to the OECD
Prof. Brenda Shaffer
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Amb. Matthew J. Bryza (moderator)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Global Energy Center & Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Defne Arslan (welcoming remarks)
Director, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Atlantic Council
- Enhancing security in the Black Sea: The future of security cooperation | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine in 2014, NATO has taken substantial steps to bolster security for its eastern members, particularly with a stronger presence in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. The NATO approach to security in the Baltic Sea has been comprehensive, as all NATO members in the region and other states recognize the dangers posed by a revisionist Kremlin. But NATO efforts along the southern flank, in the Black Sea region, are not as far along.
This panel will discuss NATO’s role in the Black Sea region and what security cooperation among these states will look like in the future.
Speakers:
Leah Scheunemann (welcoming remarks)
Deputy Director, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Alton Buland
Director, South and Central Europe, US Department of Defense
Dr. Can Kasapoğlu
Director of Security and Defense Research, The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM)
Ambassador Elena Poptodorova
Vice President, Atlantic Club of Bulgaria
Dr. Harlan Ullman
Senior Advisor, Atlantic Council; Chairman, The Killowen Group
Irina Zidaru
Director General for Strategic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania
Amb. John Herbst (moderator)
Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
- Why Tunisia’s democratic transition still matters? | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here
Late on Sunday 25 July 2021, the 64th anniversary of the proclamation of the Tunisian Republic, the Tunisian president, Kais Saied declared he will assume the executive power in country, dismissing the government of the Prime Minster Hichem Mechichi and suspending the parliament. He also declared the suspension of the legal immunity of parliament members and taking control of the general prosecutor’s office.
Struggle over powers and mandates has been characteristic of the Tunisian political system over the past decade. Since the eruption of the Tunisian revolution in 2011, significant political progress towards democracy has been achieved. However, over the past year, Tunisia has witnessed disagreements over cabinet reshuffles and control of the security forces, complicating the efforts to handle a recent fierce COVID-19 wave, structural economic hardship and a looming fiscal crisis. Are the shaky political progress and the sluggish economic progress a threat to the nascent democratic transition in Tunisia? Or are the ongoing developments part of Tunisia’s democratization process?
The webinar will explore the factors that paved the way to the dramatic moment of the evening of 25 July 2021, assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition, and why this transition is still relevant in the first place.
Speakers:
Dr Laryssa Chomiak
Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Fadil Aliriza
Editor In Chief, Meshkal
Prof Daniel Brumberg
Director of Democracy and Governance Studies, Georgetown University; Non-resident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Aymen Bessalah
Advocacy and Policy Analyst, Al Bawsala
Dr Lina Khatib (moderator)
Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
- A New Transatlantic Policy Approach Towards the Western Balkans | Aug 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
As the Biden administration pledges to work closely with its European allies, new policy approaches, development tools, and dialogue mechanisms to revitalize transatlantic policy across the region are essential as these countries grapple with weak institutions, endemic corruption, democratic backsliding, and are increasingly influenced by strategic competition.
The panel will engage in an in-depth regional conversation that explores German policy toward the region and how the U.S. and Germany and the EU can achieve better policy outcomes in the Western Balkans.
Speakers:
MdB Peter Beyer
Coordinator of Transatlantic Cooperation, German Federal Foreign Office; Western Balkans Rapporteur, German Parliament
James O’Brien
Vice Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic & Director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Paul Linnarz (opening remarks)
Director, Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung Office USA
- Tunisia’s Constitutional Crisis and Yearning for Democracy in Northwest Africa | Aug 5, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
On July 25, 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied fired the prime minister and suspended Parliament in what some have called a coup. The move followed nationwide protests demanding the premier’s resignation and the dissolution of the parliament as the coronavirus outbreak pushed the healthcare system to collapse and worsened economic conditions.
In light of these developments in Tunisia, site of the Arab Spring’s only democratic success story, Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the status of democratization in Northwest Africa, specifically focusing on Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. Panelists will discuss the implications of President Saied’s move and its constitutionality, the state of democratization in the region and the impact of events in Tunisia, the role and interventions by regional powers like Egypt and Gulf countries, and policy recommendation to support democratic processes and governance reform across Northwest Africa.
Speakers:
Yasmina Abouzzohour
Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Khaoula Ben Gayesse
Tunisian Journalist
Dalia Ghanem Yazbeck
Resident Scholar, Carnegie Middle East Center
- Pakistan’s National Security Outlook: A Conversation with Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf | Aug 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the country’s founding, Pakistan’s national security priorities have been largely defined by the realities of its geopolitical neighborhood. Now, with escalating violence in Afghanistan, intensifying competition between the United States and China, limited hopes for rapprochement with India, and the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan’s neighborhood is evolving — and Pakistan’s national security approach will have to evolve with it.
This discussion with Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the United States, as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.
Speakers:
Dr. Moeed Yusuf
National Security Advisor, Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Hon. Stephen J. Hadley (moderator)
Chair of the Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Peace Picks | June 21-25, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- World refugee day: Stories of resilient women | June 21, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council hosts a powerful conversation with refugee – and former refugee – women from around the globe as they share their stories of hope and triumph after surviving unforgettable hardship. These are stories of true resilience.
Speakers:
Adrienne Arsht (opening remarks)
Executive Vice Chair, Atlantic Council; Founder, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Reena Ninan (moderator)
Journalist and International Correspondent
Suzana Vuk
Account Executive, Zoom Video Communications
Priyali Sur
Founder & Managing Director, The Azadi Project
José Felix Rodriguez
Regional Coordinator of Migration, Social Inclusion and Non-Violence (Americas Region), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Lilia
Interviewed by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Sedighe
Interviewed by the Azadi Project
Masouma
Interviewed by the Azadi Project
Rebecca Scheurer (closing remarks)
Director, Humanitarian Initiatives, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, Atlantic Council
2. What Iran’s election results portend | June 21, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Following the June 18 presidential elections in Iran, a panel of experts discuss the political landscape and the ballot’s regional and international implications. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the implications of the election results for US-Iran relations, the 2015 nuclear deal, and Iran’s regional and domestic politics, including the succession to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Speakers:
Borzou Daragahi
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
Director, Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy
Azadeh Zamirirad
Iran Researcher and Deputy Head of the Africa and Middle East Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Sadegh Zibakalam
Author and Professor, University of Tehran
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
3. Prioritizing clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies | June 21, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Around the world, developing markets are facing a daunting challenge: how to strengthen their economies to improve the lives and livelihoods of citizens while not relying on high-carbon avenues for growth which have been deployed for generations. In many ways, the future of climate action relies on the decisions made in these emerging markets, and additional fiscal pressure brought about by the pandemic has made investing in necessary energy transformations to create sustainable, long-term growth even more difficult. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in collaboration with the World Bank and the World Economic Forum, outlines a plan for mobilizing and prioritizing clean energy investments in these economies.
The Brookings Initiative on Climate Research and Action will convene an event to discuss the new IEA report, “Financing clean energy transitions in emerging and developing economies” and the obstacles to mobilizing and deploying finance for clean energy transitions.
Speakers:
David G. Victor (introduction)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Fatih Birol (keynote)
Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Michael Waldron (paper presentation)
Head of the Energy Investment Unit, International Energy Agency
David Dollar
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Samantha Gross
Director, Energy Security and Climate Initiative; Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Rachel Kyte
Dean, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Steven M. Rothstein
Managing Director, Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Market
4. Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents And The Vote For Radical Parties: Analyzing Text From Twitter | June 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Hoover Institution, Stanford University | Register Here
The Hoover Institution announces a new seminar series on Using Text as Data in Policy Analysis. These seminars will feature applications of natural language processing, structured human readings, and machine learning methods to text as data to examine policy issues in economics, history, national security, political science, and other fields. This third session features a conversation with Francesco Giavazzi speaking on Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter.
Speakers:
Francesco Giavazzi
Professor of Economics, Bocconi University; Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research; Research Associate, NBER
5. Views From the Ground: Perceptions of Domestic Conditions in MENA | June 22, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) holds the third event in a four-part series in cooperation with Arab Barometer, on the occasion of the publication of Arab Barometer’s findings from the sixth wave of its surveys. The third panel will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Abdul-Wahab Kayyali, senior research specialist with the Arab Barometer, to discuss the findings relevant to domestic conditions in the region. What have been the views of governments throughout the pandemic and ongoing crises? How are the economic conditions, and in what ways has the change of global work conditions impacted regional populations? What are the perceptions of civil liberty and freedoms?
Speakers:
Abdul-Wahab Kayyali
Senior Research Specialist, Arab Barometer
Sahar Khamis
Non-Resident Scholar, MEI
Saloua Zerhouni
President, Rabat Institute for Social Science
Ibrahim al-Assil (moderator)
Senior Fellow, MEI
6. Iran’s Pivotal Presidential Election | June 22, 2021 | 10:30 AM ET | Wilson Center and United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The election on June 18 could mark the most important political transition in Iran for more than 30 years since the new president is likely to be in power when the next supreme leader is selected. Most Iranians—and now the majority of voters—were born after the 1979 revolution. One of the looming questions is how many will vote—and what will turnout say about public support for the regime.
The election intersects with critical negotiations between Iran and the world’s six major powers over the future of the JCPOA nuclear deal. Iran’s next president will set policy for years to come on foreign relations, including talks with the outside world on its nuclear and missile programs as well as on domestic affairs and the economy, which have been stifled by economic sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
This expert panel will discuss the election results and the implications for Iran, the Middle East, and the United States. How will the new president fare with the Biden administration?
Speakers:
Robin Wright
Distinguished Fellow, USIP-Wilson Center; Author and Columnist, The New York Times
Suzanne Maloney
Interim Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution; Senior Fellow, Brookings Center for Middle East Policy
Ali Vaez
Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
James F. Jeffrey (moderator)
Chair of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, US State Department
7. Re-Seeding Culture: Syrian Artists in Berlin | June 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Arts and Culture Center in collaboration with the Goethe-Institut Washington host a conversation about the development and influence of a thriving Syrian creative community in Berlin over the past decade with a panel of members of this community.
How did Berlin emerge as a new hub of Syrian arts and culture in diaspora? What challenges did Syrian artists face? How did they adapt and engage with this new artistic landscape? And what sort of influence has this exchange of cultures had on Berlin’s artistic community and cultural institutions?
Speakers:
Khaled Barakeh
Contemporary Artist
Kinan Hmeidan
Actor
Diana El-Jeiroudi
Filmmaker & Producer
Malu Halasa (moderator)
Writer
8. Advancing the role of women in Sudan’s transition | May 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
The contribution of women to Sudan’s transition is crucial to ensuring long-term peace, stability and development. In March 2020, the transitional government adopted its National Action Plan on women, peace and security, in line with UN Resolution 1325 which reaffirms the important role of women in peace and security efforts. Earlier this year, the cabinet also announced its priority to empower women in public affairs yet implementation of these commitments remains slow
At this event, panellists reflect on the role of women in the implementation of peace in Sudan and discuss how to increase the participation of women in political roles and other fields. They also examine outstanding priorities for legal reform, the impact of gender-based discrimination and the need for action to secure the rights and safety of women in the country.
Speakers:
Samia El Hashmi
Co-Founder and Chairwomen, Mutawinat Benevolent Company
Samia Nihar
Head, Gender Unit, Development Studies and Research Center, University of Khartoum
Manara Asad Begira Arbab
International Cooperation and Public Relations Officer, Sudan Youth Organization for Climate Change
Yousra Elbagir (moderator)
Freelance Journalist and Writer
9. A Conversation with Iraq’s Planning and Migration Ministers | June 23, 2021 | 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Join USIP for a discussion with Iraq’s Minister of Planning Khalid Najim and Minister of Migration and Displacement Evan Jabro on the current situation and challenges to stabilization, reconstruction and reform efforts in Iraq. The discussion will also shed light on the status of Iraq’s displaced communities and recent returnees — including ethnic and religious minorities and those at al-Hol camp — as well as the Iraqi government’s plans for the future.
Speakers:
Michael Yaffe (opening remarks)
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Minister Khalid Batal Najm
Minister of Planning, Republic of Iraq
Minister Evan Faeq Jabro
Minister of Migration and Displacement, Republic of Iraq
Sarhang Hamasaeed (moderator)
Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Book Discussion | Transforming Our World: President George H.W. Bush and American Foreign Policy | June 24, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
From the fall of the Soviet Union to the Gulf War, the presidency of George H. W. Bush dealt with foreign policy challenges that would cement the post-Cold War order for a generation. Transforming Our World: President George H.W. Bush and American Foreign Policy offers readers a unique perspective on international events in the Bush administration — in the words of distinguished U.S. foreign policy insiders who helped shape them. They shed new light on and analyze President Bush’s role in world events during this historic period, his style of diplomacy, the organization and functioning of his foreign policy team, the consequences of his decisions, and his leadership skills.
Speakers:
Andrew H. Card Jr.
Author, Transforming Our World; Former White House Chief of Staff; Former Chair, National Endowment for Democracy
Andrew S. Natsios
Author, Transforming Our World; Director, Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director, & CEO, Wilson Center
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