Tag: Syria
Stevenson’s army, April 21
– WaPo explains the State/HHS fight over refugees and Biden’s overruling Blinken on admissions.
– NYT says Biden has to choose between solar panels and punishing China for human rights violations.
– Centcom commander says fighting terrorists will be harder after Afghan withdrawal.
– US loses air superiority to drones.
– Russia is fighting ISIS in Syria.
– Chad president’s death raises many issues.
– Iran shaken by Israeli attacks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Watch this space: 10 challenges Biden wishes he didn’t have
President Biden is preoccupied with domestic issues: the economy, COVID-19, race and inequality. But of course foreign policy waits for no president.
The current picture is gloomy:
- Russia has been threatening renewed hostilities against Ukraine. Moscow is claiming it is all Kiev’s faulty, but I suspect Putin is getting nervous about improved performance of the Ukrainian Army. Perhaps he thinks it will be easier and less costly to up the ante now. Besides a new offensive would distract from his domestic problems, including that pesky political prisoner and hunger striker Alexei Navalny.
- Iran and Israel are making it difficult for the US to get back into the nuclear deal. Israel has somehow crashed the electrical supply to Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Tehran has amped up the IRGC/Supeme Leader criticism of President Rouhani, making it harder for him to ease conditions for Washington’s return to the nuclear deal. A vigorous Iranian reaction to the Israeli sabotage would make the Americans hesitate.
- Peace talks between Afghanistan and the Taliban for a transitional power-sharing government are not going well. How could they? The Taliban want an Afghanistan in which President Ghani would have no place. Ghani wants an Afghanistan in which the Taliban would have no place. Powersharing requires a minimum of mutual tolerance that appears lacking.
- North Korea is renewing its missile and nuclear threats. President Trump pretty much poisoned the diplomatic well with Pyongyang by meeting three times with Kim Jong-un without reaching a serious agreement. Kim seems to have decided he can manage without one, so long as his nuclear weapons and missiles threaten South Korea, Japan, and even the continental United States.
- China is menacing Taiwan. I doubt Beijing wants to face the kind of military defense and popular resistance an invasion would entail, but ratcheting up the threat forces Taipei to divert resources and puts an additional issue on the negotiating table with Washington, which doesn’t want to have to come to Taipei’s defense.
- Syria’s Assad is consolidating control and preparing for further pushes into Idlib or the northeast. While unquestionably stretched thin militarily and economically, Damascus no longer faces any clear and present threat to Assad’s hold on power. He hasn’t really won, but the relatively liberal opposition has definitely lost, both to him and to Islamist extremists.
- Central Americans are challenging American capacity to manage its southern border. The increase of asylum seekers, especially children, presents a quandary to the Biden Administration: shut them out as President Trump did, or let them in and suffer the domestic political consequences. Biden has put Vice President Harris in charge, but it will be some time before she can resurrect processing of asylum seekers in their home countries and also get the kind of aid flowing to them that will cut back on the economic motives for migration.
- The Houthis aren’t playing nice. America’s cut in military and intelligence support for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is giving their Yemeni adversaries a chance to advance on the last remaining major population center in the north still nominally held by President Hadi’s shambolic government. If the Houthis take Marib, the consequences will be catastrophic.
- Addis Ababa isn’t either. Africa’s second most populous country, Ethiopia, has gone to war against its own Tigray region, which had defied Addis’ authority on control of the military and holding elections. The Americans want Addis to ease up and allow humanitarian assistance and media in. Ethiopia’s reforming Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy is playing rope-a-dope with the Americans and keeping up the pressure on the Tigrayans.
- You haven’t heard much about it lately, but nothing good is happening in Venezuela, where President Maduro has survived efforts to oust him and now is enjoying one of what must be at least 9 lives.
Biden deserves a lot of credit for what he is doing domestically, and he is the best versed president on foreign affairs in decades. But the international pressures are building. It is only a matter of time before one or more of these ten issues, or a half dozen others, climb to the top of his to-do list. None of them are going to be easy to handle. Watch this space.
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Peace Picks | March 15 – March 19, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Free to Leave? Independent Media in Russia | March 15, 2021 | 9:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Independent media in Russia have long faced harassment and intimidation from the Kremlin. Indeed, when Vladimir Putin first rose to the Russian presidency in 2000, he quickly stifled the country’s large national broadcasters, shuttered commercial media outlets, and began a campaign to force domestic affiliates to break ties with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Russian Service. Even with the advent and now ubiquity of the internet, the Kremlin has moved to block online sites that it deems “undesirable,” or detrimental to its grip on power. Putin and his cronies have even resorted to the murder of prominent journalists.
International outlets have sometimes been spared the harsh treatment that Russian news sources have received. But Putin is now dialing the pressure up on foreign media companies, too. Russian authorities have recently used the country’s “foreign agent” law to fine and effectively ban Western news outlets that don’t support the Kremlin propaganda line. Since January 2021, Russia’s media regulator has issued hundreds of violations that will result in nearly $1 million in fines for RFE/RL for “non-compliance” with the law—more fines are on the way.
Investigative journalism in Russia has been more successful of late, led by Alexei Navalny’s YouTube videos exposing Kremlin corruption and uncovering the operations of the FSB’s brazen death squads. But the triumphs of these investigations speak more to the skill of Navalny and his team than an open media environment. Navalny now sits in prison, Russian propaganda continues to surge, and independent news outlets are more threatened than ever.
The Kremlin’s multi-faceted pressure campaign deprives Russian society of quality news and information, making it more difficult for Russians to pursue the fundamental freedoms they deserve.
Can independent media survive under such intense pressure from the Kremlin? What can the West do to support a vibrant free press in Russia?
Speakers:
Jamie Fly
President and CEO of RFE/RL
Kiryl Sukhotski
Regional director for Europe and TV production at RFE/RL,
Maria Lipman
Senior Associate at the PONARS Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University
Dylan Myles-Primakoff
Nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, join to discuss the Russian media landscape and the challenges ahead.
Melinda Haring (Moderator)
Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center
2. Minsk II and the Donbas Conflict: Six Years Later | March 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This February marks six years since the Minsk 2 Protocol was agreed upon by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany in order to work toward ending the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Since then, the implementation of Minsk 2 by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group has been difficult, with some moments of stabilization but an overall failure to move toward the conflict resolution phase. Additionally, recent ceasefire violations are evidence that the situation is worsening. In this panel, experts will discuss what is happening on the Donbas frontline today, assess the implementation of Minsk 2, and share major achievements and shortcomings on the development of the situation in the region.
Speakers:
Hannah Shelest
Director of Security, Programmes, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”; Editor-in-Chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica
Brian Milakovsky
Independent Analyst
Mykhailo Minakov
Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
William E Pomeranz (Moderator)
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
3. MEI: Syria Annual Conference: The Geopolitics of Syria’s Crisis | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Syria Program is pleased to host its annual Syria Policy Conference, featuring three panels of Syrian figures and leading experts. Marking the ten year anniversary of the 2011 uprising, this inaugural conference is especially poignant, with a path towards stability and justice still some way away. What are the lessons learned from the past decade and what does the future hold? What avenues remain open for progress on the diplomatic front; what options are available to ameliorate the worsening humanitarian situation; what role will Syrians from all backgrounds play in determining what comes next? These are many more questions will be the subject of the conference agenda below.
Aleksandr Aksenenok
Vice President, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC); Former Ambassador to Syria
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University
Andrew Tabler
Martin J. Gross Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy; former Senior Advisor, U.S. State Department
Gonul Tol
Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute
Liz Sly (Moderator)
Beirut Bureau Chief, Washington Post
4. The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policy Makers and Practitioners | March 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Please join the Wilson Center Africa Program for the launch of The State of Peacebuilding in Africa: Lessons Learned for Policymakers and Practitioners, edited by Dr. Terence McNamee and Dr. Monde Muyangwa, on Tuesday, March 16, 2021, from 9:00-10:45 AM Eastern Time US (EDT). Key topics for discussion include peacebuilding frameworks, strategies and tools, as well as the role of international actors.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul D. Williams
Professor of International Affairs and Associate Director M.A Security Policy Studies Program, The George Washington University
Dr. Fritz Nganje
Former Public Policy Scholar; Associate Professor of International Relations, University of Johannesburg
Dr. Chukwuemeka B. Eze
Executive Director, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP)
Ms. Lisa Sharland
Deputy Director of Defence, Strategy and National Security, and Head of International Program, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Dr. Franklin Oduro
Resident Program Director for Elections, Ethiopia Office, National Democratic Institute for International Affairs
Dr. Phil Clark
Professor of International Politics, SOAS University of London
Andrea Johnson (Moderator)
Program Officer, Higher Education and Research in Africa and Peacebuilding in Africa, Carnegie Cooperation of New York
5. The “Minneapolis Effect”: Hostility Toward Law Enforcement, Police Officer Passivity, and the Rise of Violent Crime | March 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The phenomenon of cities with disengaged officers and higher levels of serious violent crimes has come to be called the “Minneapolis Effect.” Join us for a discussion with two scholars who have recently illuminated this criminological trend.
Speakers:
Honorable Paul Cassell
Professor of Criminal Law, University of Utah
Lawrence Rosenthal
Professor of Law, Chapman University
Paul J Larkin Jr. (Moderator)
Rumpel Senior Legal Research Fellow
6. Asset, Liability, or Both—The Future of U.S.-Saudi Relations | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Register Here
With the release of the incriminating U.S. intelligence report on the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden—in a sharp break with the Trump administration—has clearly outlined his intention to recalibrate the U.S.-Saudi relationship to ensure it advances U.S. interests and values.
Are the administration’s initial steps sufficient to rebalance the relationship? Or does more need to be done? What impact has this shift had on Saudi internal politics, specifically on the standing of the crown prince? And even more fundamentally, with the fracturing of the decades-long oil-for-security trade-off, what are the U.S. interests in its relationship with the kingdom in 2021?
Speakers:
Yasmine Farouk
Visiting Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bernard Haykel
Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University
Robin Wright
Columnist, New Yorker; Fellow at US Institute of Peace and Wilson Center
Aaron David Miller (Moderator)
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
7. Black Sea Connectivity and the South Caucasus | March 17, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Black Sea historically served as a major trading route connecting Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to the Mediterranean world. There is a growing interest in this region from major regional and non-regional actors. In addition to the security dimension, the Black Sea is attracting growing commercial interests. In order to maximize trade opportunities for all parties involved, there is a need for renewed effort to facilitate Black Sea connectivity, in order to manage post-Covid recovery, and achieve significant synergy of resources and markets for years to come. More investment is needed for infrastructure development and harmonization of tariffs and border crossing procedures, with the common aim of increasing competitiveness of the entire transit and transportation system.
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts who will discuss Black Sea Connectivity and its South Caucasus Extension for greater commercial benefits to the wider Black Sea region.
Speakers:
Ivo Konstantinov
Commercial counselor and trade attache, Embassy of the Republic of Bulgaria
Mamuka Tsereteli
Non-resident fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Andrii Tsokol
Associate Director, Infrastructure Europe, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Iulia Joja (Moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
8. Pursuing War Crimes: The Meaning of Justice in the Syria Context | March 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Ten years into the tragic Syrian conflict, the cost of the violence and violations stretch beyond imagination. More than half a million Syrian lives have been lost, 12 million have been displaced, and millions maimed and injured. More than 100,000 Syrians have been forcibly disappeared, while tens of thousands languish in official and makeshift detention centers. Those who should be held to account have evaded justice and, in some cases have seen their power grow.
Over the past few years, leading international criminal lawyers, prosecutors, and civil society groups committed to accountability have filed cases against perpetrators in European courts. Where do these cases stand today and what are the prospects for holding criminals accountable? What role, if any, can US and European policy makers play in supporting the quest to seek justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria?
Speakers:
Ambassador Stephen J. Rapp
Senior Fellow, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Dr. Yasmine Nahlawi
Legal Consultant
Sareta Ashraph
Senior Adviser, US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Jomana Qaddour
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
9. Can Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Deliver Peace? | March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Global Fragility Act and U.S. Strategy on Women, Peace and Security offer tools for realizing these goals and build upon decades of lessons learned from research and programming in the field. But important questions remain if a new approach consistent with principles of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) is to be operationalized. What should the role of local stakeholders and beneficiaries be in establishing DEI principles and evaluating program impact? And what are the hurdles to bringing these more inclusive approaches to scale?
Join USIP and the Heller School for Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University for a timely discussion on how applying the principles of diversity, equity, and inclusion can contribute to more effective U.S. peace and development programs around the world. Panelists will consider efforts to meaningfully engage marginalized or underrepresented groups such as women, youth, and social movement actors to support locally driven peacebuilding.
Speakers:
Corinne Graff, (Introductory Remarks)
Senior Advisor, Conflict Prevention and Fragility, U.S. Institute of Peace
Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Executive Director, Corporación de Investigación y Acción Social y Económica (CIASE) in Colombia
Joseph Sany
Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Pamina Firchow (Moderator)
Associate Professor of Conflict Resolution and Coexistence, Brandeis University
10. Maritime Security Dialogue: Congressional Perspective on the Future of the US Navy |March 18, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | US Institute of Peace| Register Here
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI)
Co-Chair, House National Security Caucus and Member, House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee and
Representative Elaine Luria (D-VA)
Vice Chair, House Armed Services Committee & Member, Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee
Dr. Seth Jones (Moderator)
Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program.
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The future of the Islamic State
The Atlantic Council March 4 hosted an event to discuss the group’s current activities and prospects of an ISIS resurgence, including the Caliphate’s impact and demise (2014-17), as well as current and future ISIS activities not only within Syria and Iraq but throughout the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute; Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
Resurgence Unlikely:
Moderator Banan Malkawi described the ISIS insurgency as a watershed moment for violent extremism. We need to ask “What are the key expectations for the future of the Islamic State as an organization?” The consensus was that an ISIS resurgence is unlikely, though all the speakers acknowledged the threat that the group still poses within the remote pockets where they continue to operate.
Revkin discussed her experiences doing fieldwork in Iraq, noting that conversations she has had with Iraqis suggest there is no easy way to accurately assess the threat ISIS poses to Iraqi society. Just counting weapons and people involved in ISIS activity will not work without examining the socioeconomic and political environment that the group is operating in today. There are multiple drivers of instability in Iraq, only few of which are directly attributed to ISIS. An ISIS resurgence to their 2014 capacity is nearly impossible because of the violence they committed against Sunni communities. They just don’t have the necessary levels of public support.
Sectarian Divisions and Deal Making:
Peek agreed. The viability of a ISIS resurgence is limited, because Sunni politics is marked by pragmatism and deal making. An ISIS resurgence is more likely to happen in Syria than in Iraq, but the chances of either are still limited as long as the Syrian Democratic Forces (and their partnership with the United States) remains strong. “It is a dark time for Sunnis in the Levant,” he said.
Daragahi explained the structure of ISIS and noted the group thrives in ungoverned areas. Its social media and internet strategy has shifted into darker, more secure corners of the internet. ISIS has had to redirect its thinking and recruitment tactics in order to continue to survive. It exploits failed states, whether in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sub-Saharan Africa or other pockets of the world. Thriving on grievances is how the group has managed to stay alive, albeit in a lowered capacity.
The rise of Salafi jihadism and sectarianism have been the keys to ISIS survival, according to Mohammed Abu Rumman. Some of the theories that have emerged in recent months regarding the group and their external support from partners and governments were shot down by both Daragahi and Rumman. ISIS will continue to operate in ways that ensure its survival, but the group will likely remain self-funded.
The international community and governments that have been working to delegitimize ISIS should continue, as countries such as Iraq and Syria still face threats from the group and feel the residual impact from its time in power.
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Peace Picks | March 1 – March 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
- Breaking the Tie: Security and Stability in Belarus | March 1, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
For the past six months, Belarusians protesting for free and fair elections across the country have faced growing repression as strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka attempts to cling to power. The opposition has demonstrated staying power and growing political capital, but the army and the security services remain loyal to Lukashenka. This domestic stalemate also presents a strategic problem for the Kremlin, which seems to have no new ideas beyond some monetary support for Lukashenka’s regime. Meanwhile the US and Europe have responded with modest financial sanctions against the discredited president and his cronies.
Do Lukashenka or Moscow have any new cards to play? Does the opposition? How will the situation in Belarus end and how will Washington, Brussels, and Moscow react?
Speakers:
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer
Columnist with Novaya Gazeta,
David Kramer
Senior Fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy
Valery Kavaleuski
Foreign Affairs Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Marie Mendras
Professor at Sciences Po’s Paris School of International Affairs
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
2. Red Flags Report Launch | March 2, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic International Studies | Register Here
China’s political and economic influence in the Western Balkans is on the rise, fueled in part by a regional demand for infrastructure which is satisfied by opaque deals in the ICT, energy, and transportation sectors. These projects present risks to good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and digital security. Join CSIS for a virtual discussion of a new CSIS report which describes tools and actions critical for stakeholders to objectively evaluate and respond to these risks. The report concludes a three-part series which examined the nature and impact of Chinese economic influence in the Western Balkans and its implications for the region’s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote)
Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, CSIS
Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS
Valerie Hopkins (Moderator)
South-East Europe Correspondent, The Financial Times
3. Lebanon: Challenges and Future Prospects| March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel to launch its Lebanon Program, focusing on Lebanon’s current state of affairs and potential US foreign policy options going forward. The months-long political stalemate and the unaddressed financial crisis keep pushing Lebanon further into chaos and uncertainty. In parallel, the new Biden administration is redefining the US stance vis-à-vis Iran and reassessing some of its bilateral relations in the region. Many of these changes will have direct implications for Lebanon. This distinguished panel will address these local and regional developments, think through ways US foreign policy towards Lebanon can be more nuanced and constructive, and highlight themes and signals that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel
President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon
May Nasrallah
Chairwoman, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Paul Salem
President, MEI
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, MEI
4. Agent Sonya: Moscow’s Most Daring Wartime Spy | March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Please join the Intelligence Project for a discussion with Ben MacIntyre on his latest book, Agent Sonya. This true-life spy story is a masterpiece about the Soviet intelligence officer code-named “Sonya.” Over the course of her career, she was hunted by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Nazis, MI5, MI6, and the FBI—and she evaded them all. Her story reflects the great ideological clash of the twentieth century—between Communism, Fascism, and Western democracy—and casts new light on the spy battles and shifting allegiances of our own times.
With unparalleled access to Sonya’s diaries and correspondence and never-before-seen information on her clandestine activities, Macintyre has conjured a page-turning history of a legendary secret agent, a woman who influenced the course of the Cold War and helped plunge the world into a decades-long standoff between nuclear superpowers.
Speakers:
Ben Macintyre
Author and Journalist, The Times
5. Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe | March 3, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
In the wake of unprecedented domestic terror and national security threats in the form of mass shootings and insurrection in the nation’s capital, former Congresswoman & Wilson Center Director, President, and CEO Jane Harman offers her new book Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe (St. Martin’s Press; May 18, 2021), which chronicles how four consecutive administrations have failed to confront some of the toughest national security issues and suggests achievable fixes that can move us toward a safer future.
Please join Congresswoman Harman and New York Times national security correspondent and senior writer David Sanger for an in-depth conversation on the book and a discussion on better processes and more sound policy for the next generation of elected officials and the new administration.
Speakers:
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
David Sanger
Former Distinguished Fellow, National Security Correspondent and Writer, the New York Times; Author, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age
6. Religion, Ethnicity, and Charges Of Extremism: The Dynamics Of Inter-Communal Violence In Ethiopia| March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | European Institute of Peace| Register Here
In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of the Tigray crisis makes this understandable, but in its shadow, inter-communal tensions and conflicts have persisted across Ethiopia. In recent years there were numerous violent incidents, such as the Amhara regional ‘coup’ attempt of June 2019, the violence across Oromia in October 2019, and incidents around Timkat in Dire Dawa and Harar in January 2020.
A team of Ethiopian and international researchers – Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal Kadir, Muhammed Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye – studied two incidents of inter-communal violence: the attacks on mosques and (mostly) Muslim properties in Mota, Amhara region in December 2019 and the violence and destruction of properties in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia in July 2020. They will present their findings in this event, followed by discussion and Q&A.
Their research shows that in Ethiopia religion and ethnic violence overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised: the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Speakers:
Terje Østebø
University of Florida
Jörg Haustein
University of Cambridge
Sandy Wade (Moderator)
Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace
7. COVID-19 and Cooperation in Libya | March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Libya is at a turning point after the U.N.-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected a temporary executive authority in February to unify the country and move toward elections by year’s end. However, sustainable peace cannot be achieved with only an agreement at the national level. And the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated economic challenges, strained the country’s health infrastructure, and added a new layer of complexity to the country’s conflict. Local-level cooperation—and linking these efforts to the national-level peace process—is of utmost importance to achieve a cohesive and peaceful country.
And despite a difficult year, there have been bright spots for Libya on this front. The COVID-19 pandemic yielded many examples of local-level initiatives where Libyans came together in challenging conditions to cooperate for a common goal. The hope is that these successes can lead to longer and more enduring areas of cooperation.
Join USIP as we host Libya’s ambassador to the United States and Libyan civil society leaders for a look at stories of positive community cooperation during the current crisis—as well as a discussion on how Libyan and international organizations can build off these successes to navigate Libya’s complex conflict and ensure a peaceful future for the country.
Speakers:
Wafa Bughaighis (Keynote speaker)
Libyan Ambassador to the United States
Ahmed Albibas
Director, Moomken Organization for Awareness and Media
Abdulrahman A. S. Elgheriani
President and CEO, Tanmia 360
Craig Browne
Program Policy Officer, World Food Programme
Nate Wilson (Moderator)
Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. Unraveling the Conflict in Syria March 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In 2012, as the conflict in Syria continued to smolder, then-president Barack Obama made clear that any use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime would constitute a “red line” for U.S. engagement. Yet in the aftermath of a sarin attack outside Damascus just a year later, the Obama administration seized the opportunity to work with Russia on an ambitious plan to hunt down and remove chemical weapons rather than go to war. A decade later, the tangle of “heroes and villains” involved in that particular scenario is clearer.
Speakers:
Joby Warrick
Author of Red Line
Maha Yahya
Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
9. The Future of ISIS March 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On October 27, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump announced that the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in Syria in an American special operation, striking a blow against an already weakened organization.
What ISIS accomplished during the period of its rise and growth represents a “quantum leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating theories of terrorist groups, and requires deep analysis of the organization’s expected future trajectory. The Politics and Society Institute in Amman, Jordan, and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in Washington, DC, are pleased to co-host this expert discussion. This panel will shed light on what opportunities exist for policymakers to deal with the legacy of ISIS detainees and returnees, as well as on strategies against a potential resurgence in Iraq and Syria.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute
Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
10. Strategic nuclear modernization in the United States| March 4, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Brookings Institutions| Register Here
What: As with prior administrations before it, the Biden administration is preparing to undertake a major review of the U.S. strategic nuclear modernization program. Though the U.S. arsenal has decreased in accordance with the New START treaty, new delivery systems are still being developed.
Supporters of the current program argue that implementation is critical for the United States’ ability to deter adversaries and reassure allies. Opponents argue that the current program is well in excess of deterrence requirements and is not affordable over the long term. During the review period, Congress will examine the current program as well as requested funding for these systems.
On Thursday, March 4, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a panel to discuss how the Biden administration will – and should – approach negotiations regarding the future of the strategic modernization program.
Speakers:
Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund
Madelyn R. Creedon
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Franklin Miller
Principal, The Scowcroft Group
Amy Woolf
Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service
Frank A Rose
Co-Director and Foreign Policy Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
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Stevenson’s army, February 26
– Biden administration strikes Iranian-backed militias in Syria.
– Biden talks to Saudi king
– Axios says administration in no rush to change Western Sahara policy..
– Pew reports public opinion on Biden foreign policy challenges.
– David Ignatius comments on Egypt policy.
– Josh Rogin urges action on North Korea policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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