Tag: Syria
Trump still has consequences, none of them good
I’d like to forget about Donald Trump. It is certainly a blessing that those of us who think him a disloyal jerk don’t have to put up with his constant media presence, now that he is out of office. But his years in the White House have consequences. None of them good.
Let’s start at home. The prevalence of COVID-19 infections is looking increasingly like a map of voter preferences in the last presidential election, with the former Confederacy and some Western states suffering the most.
This is not surprising. Trump discouraged social distancing and vaccination, though he was himself was quietly careful to do both. The Delta variant is therefore finding lots of host humans in areas that voted for him. Some will die. More will infect others, including people whose immune systems don’t allow them to be vaccinated as well as children not yet permitted to be vaccinated. The result could be an even more infectious variant popping up, with devastating consequences not only for public health but also for the economy. If you are unvaccinated against COVID-19 and haven’t had polio or smallpox, maybe you should be thinking about why not.
Do I need to spell it out? No one has had polio or smallpox in the US for decades. Because vaccines.
The slow start of vaccination in poorer countries is also in part a result of Trump’s presidency. He wasn’t interested in supporting the World Health Organization’s COVAX program to get them vaccines. Beggar they neighbor and America First are essentially the same thing. The trouble of course is that this, too, contributes to the likelihood of more virulent variants evolving. Yes, evolving: for those who don’t believe in evolution, the existence of COVID-19 variants due mutations should give you pause.
But Trump’s impact on world affairs is unfortunately not limited to COVID-19. Iran is now much closer to having all the material it needs for nuclear weapons than it was when Trump in 2018 withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal. So close, that the newly elected hardline President Raisi is thinking about not reentering it. The Supreme Leader is hinting at that possibility as well, while the Americans have resorted to saying the moment to do so is passing. If you live in one of those states with high COVID infection rates, maybe you are happy about that, because Trump convinced you it was a bad deal. But no deal is clearly worse.
Another sad consequence of Trump’s time in office is the current situation in Syria. He needs to share the blame with Barack Obama, but the fact is neither president ever figured out what to do in Syria other than kill the Islamic State. Andrew Tabler gives an interesting account of Trump Administration thinking on the subject, but he is unable to come up with more than a generic wish for what needs to be done:
A new Syria policy must be carefully calibrated to avoid getting mired in bureaucracy and competing interests. The Biden administration should appoint a special envoy for Syria charged with developing what the Trump team never did—a coherent political strategy, supported by the U.S. intelligence community, to isolate Assad and his regime’s facilitators and limit the malign influence of Iran and Russia.
The fact is that Assad, supported by Iran and Russia, has closed down options other than himself and reduced the Americans and Europeans to begging for humanitarian border crossings so they can provide relief to the millions of Syrians who remain outside Assad’s control, thereby preventing a new flood of refugees. While the Trump Administration finished Obama’s “kill ISIS” project, it did nothing thereafter to stabilize the situation and begin to provide something more than humanitarian relief outside Assad-controlled areas. The result of course is that ISIS is resurging, or at least regrowing.
The situation isn’t much better in other parts of the world. While Biden is understandably trying to keep his focus on the big picture of strategic competition with Russia and China, North Korea has more nuclear weapons and more capability to deliver them to the continental US than ever before. The love letters with Trump never accomplished anything. Nicholas Maduro still holds power in Venezuela, despite much Trump Administration blah-blah about replacing him. The Communist regime in Cuba is looking shaky at the moment, but it survived Trump’s tightening of the embargo and isn’t yielding to protests yet.
The House Select Committee on the January 6 insurrection started its hearings this week with testimony from four law enforcement officers who tried to defend the Capitol. They asked the Committee to find out who was behind the attack, that is who “hired the hitman.” It is important to get an official answer to that question. But we know who it was. Donald Trump called for the attack on the Capitol and expected it to encourage the Congress to reject the results of the Electoral College vote, or even to prevent it from certifying the Electoral College result. It will take the United States a long time to emerge from the shadow Trump has cast over its history.
Trump still has consequences. None of them good.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 29
FP explains Iran’s growing drone threat.
President Biden defended his retaliatory strikes.
Sen. WIcker [R-MS] is using a hold to try to get more ships built in MS.
Members of Congress are spending much more in personal security.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 28
US air strikes in Iraq and Syria against Iranian-linked militias. NYT background. Official release.
UN told Russian mercenaries commit war crimes in Africa.
Bruce Riedel remembers the Khobar Towers bombing 25 years ago. He notes how US retaliated against Iran. The incident also led to a civ-mil clash when SecDef Cohen wanted to punish senior officers and USAF Chief of Staff wanted to punish only those immediately responsible. The chief retired early in quiet protest. For me it was a clash between the Navy and Air Force approaches to command responsibility.
Fred Kaplan reviews West Point’s long history of teaching about race.
Tucker Carlson attacks Gen.Milley.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | June 21-25, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- World refugee day: Stories of resilient women | June 21, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council hosts a powerful conversation with refugee – and former refugee – women from around the globe as they share their stories of hope and triumph after surviving unforgettable hardship. These are stories of true resilience.
Speakers:
Adrienne Arsht (opening remarks)
Executive Vice Chair, Atlantic Council; Founder, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Reena Ninan (moderator)
Journalist and International Correspondent
Suzana Vuk
Account Executive, Zoom Video Communications
Priyali Sur
Founder & Managing Director, The Azadi Project
José Felix Rodriguez
Regional Coordinator of Migration, Social Inclusion and Non-Violence (Americas Region), International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Lilia
Interviewed by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
Sedighe
Interviewed by the Azadi Project
Masouma
Interviewed by the Azadi Project
Rebecca Scheurer (closing remarks)
Director, Humanitarian Initiatives, Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, Atlantic Council
2. What Iran’s election results portend | June 21, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Following the June 18 presidential elections in Iran, a panel of experts discuss the political landscape and the ballot’s regional and international implications. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the implications of the election results for US-Iran relations, the 2015 nuclear deal, and Iran’s regional and domestic politics, including the succession to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Speakers:
Borzou Daragahi
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Fatemeh Haghighatjoo
Director, Nonviolent Initiative for Democracy
Azadeh Zamirirad
Iran Researcher and Deputy Head of the Africa and Middle East Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Sadegh Zibakalam
Author and Professor, University of Tehran
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
3. Prioritizing clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies | June 21, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Around the world, developing markets are facing a daunting challenge: how to strengthen their economies to improve the lives and livelihoods of citizens while not relying on high-carbon avenues for growth which have been deployed for generations. In many ways, the future of climate action relies on the decisions made in these emerging markets, and additional fiscal pressure brought about by the pandemic has made investing in necessary energy transformations to create sustainable, long-term growth even more difficult. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in collaboration with the World Bank and the World Economic Forum, outlines a plan for mobilizing and prioritizing clean energy investments in these economies.
The Brookings Initiative on Climate Research and Action will convene an event to discuss the new IEA report, “Financing clean energy transitions in emerging and developing economies” and the obstacles to mobilizing and deploying finance for clean energy transitions.
Speakers:
David G. Victor (introduction)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Fatih Birol (keynote)
Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Michael Waldron (paper presentation)
Head of the Energy Investment Unit, International Energy Agency
David Dollar
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
Samantha Gross
Director, Energy Security and Climate Initiative; Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Rachel Kyte
Dean, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Steven M. Rothstein
Managing Director, Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Market
4. Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents And The Vote For Radical Parties: Analyzing Text From Twitter | June 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Hoover Institution, Stanford University | Register Here
The Hoover Institution announces a new seminar series on Using Text as Data in Policy Analysis. These seminars will feature applications of natural language processing, structured human readings, and machine learning methods to text as data to examine policy issues in economics, history, national security, political science, and other fields. This third session features a conversation with Francesco Giavazzi speaking on Terrorist Attacks, Cultural Incidents and the Vote for Radical Parties: Analyzing Text from Twitter.
Speakers:
Francesco Giavazzi
Professor of Economics, Bocconi University; Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research; Research Associate, NBER
5. Views From the Ground: Perceptions of Domestic Conditions in MENA | June 22, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) holds the third event in a four-part series in cooperation with Arab Barometer, on the occasion of the publication of Arab Barometer’s findings from the sixth wave of its surveys. The third panel will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Abdul-Wahab Kayyali, senior research specialist with the Arab Barometer, to discuss the findings relevant to domestic conditions in the region. What have been the views of governments throughout the pandemic and ongoing crises? How are the economic conditions, and in what ways has the change of global work conditions impacted regional populations? What are the perceptions of civil liberty and freedoms?
Speakers:
Abdul-Wahab Kayyali
Senior Research Specialist, Arab Barometer
Sahar Khamis
Non-Resident Scholar, MEI
Saloua Zerhouni
President, Rabat Institute for Social Science
Ibrahim al-Assil (moderator)
Senior Fellow, MEI
6. Iran’s Pivotal Presidential Election | June 22, 2021 | 10:30 AM ET | Wilson Center and United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The election on June 18 could mark the most important political transition in Iran for more than 30 years since the new president is likely to be in power when the next supreme leader is selected. Most Iranians—and now the majority of voters—were born after the 1979 revolution. One of the looming questions is how many will vote—and what will turnout say about public support for the regime.
The election intersects with critical negotiations between Iran and the world’s six major powers over the future of the JCPOA nuclear deal. Iran’s next president will set policy for years to come on foreign relations, including talks with the outside world on its nuclear and missile programs as well as on domestic affairs and the economy, which have been stifled by economic sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
This expert panel will discuss the election results and the implications for Iran, the Middle East, and the United States. How will the new president fare with the Biden administration?
Speakers:
Robin Wright
Distinguished Fellow, USIP-Wilson Center; Author and Columnist, The New York Times
Suzanne Maloney
Interim Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution; Senior Fellow, Brookings Center for Middle East Policy
Ali Vaez
Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group
James F. Jeffrey (moderator)
Chair of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, US State Department
7. Re-Seeding Culture: Syrian Artists in Berlin | June 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s Arts and Culture Center in collaboration with the Goethe-Institut Washington host a conversation about the development and influence of a thriving Syrian creative community in Berlin over the past decade with a panel of members of this community.
How did Berlin emerge as a new hub of Syrian arts and culture in diaspora? What challenges did Syrian artists face? How did they adapt and engage with this new artistic landscape? And what sort of influence has this exchange of cultures had on Berlin’s artistic community and cultural institutions?
Speakers:
Khaled Barakeh
Contemporary Artist
Kinan Hmeidan
Actor
Diana El-Jeiroudi
Filmmaker & Producer
Malu Halasa (moderator)
Writer
8. Advancing the role of women in Sudan’s transition | May 23, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
The contribution of women to Sudan’s transition is crucial to ensuring long-term peace, stability and development. In March 2020, the transitional government adopted its National Action Plan on women, peace and security, in line with UN Resolution 1325 which reaffirms the important role of women in peace and security efforts. Earlier this year, the cabinet also announced its priority to empower women in public affairs yet implementation of these commitments remains slow
At this event, panellists reflect on the role of women in the implementation of peace in Sudan and discuss how to increase the participation of women in political roles and other fields. They also examine outstanding priorities for legal reform, the impact of gender-based discrimination and the need for action to secure the rights and safety of women in the country.
Speakers:
Samia El Hashmi
Co-Founder and Chairwomen, Mutawinat Benevolent Company
Samia Nihar
Head, Gender Unit, Development Studies and Research Center, University of Khartoum
Manara Asad Begira Arbab
International Cooperation and Public Relations Officer, Sudan Youth Organization for Climate Change
Yousra Elbagir (moderator)
Freelance Journalist and Writer
9. A Conversation with Iraq’s Planning and Migration Ministers | June 23, 2021 | 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Join USIP for a discussion with Iraq’s Minister of Planning Khalid Najim and Minister of Migration and Displacement Evan Jabro on the current situation and challenges to stabilization, reconstruction and reform efforts in Iraq. The discussion will also shed light on the status of Iraq’s displaced communities and recent returnees — including ethnic and religious minorities and those at al-Hol camp — as well as the Iraqi government’s plans for the future.
Speakers:
Michael Yaffe (opening remarks)
Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Minister Khalid Batal Najm
Minister of Planning, Republic of Iraq
Minister Evan Faeq Jabro
Minister of Migration and Displacement, Republic of Iraq
Sarhang Hamasaeed (moderator)
Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Book Discussion | Transforming Our World: President George H.W. Bush and American Foreign Policy | June 24, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
From the fall of the Soviet Union to the Gulf War, the presidency of George H. W. Bush dealt with foreign policy challenges that would cement the post-Cold War order for a generation. Transforming Our World: President George H.W. Bush and American Foreign Policy offers readers a unique perspective on international events in the Bush administration — in the words of distinguished U.S. foreign policy insiders who helped shape them. They shed new light on and analyze President Bush’s role in world events during this historic period, his style of diplomacy, the organization and functioning of his foreign policy team, the consequences of his decisions, and his leadership skills.
Speakers:
Andrew H. Card Jr.
Author, Transforming Our World; Former White House Chief of Staff; Former Chair, National Endowment for Democracy
Andrew S. Natsios
Author, Transforming Our World; Director, Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director, & CEO, Wilson Center
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Russians love their tsars, until they don’t
Russian President Putin is all about power: getting it, exercising it, holding on to it. He also knows when he meets it.
That is what happened with President Biden in Geneva today. Unlike his predecessor, Biden was clear and forceful about Russia’s malfeasance, both internationally (especially the invasion of Ukraine) and internally (especially the jailing of Alexei Navalny and restrictions on the press). The result was a relatively productive confrontation leading to future meetings on strategic weapons, cybersecurity, and prisoner exchanges. Putin did his usual “what about malfeasance in the US” for the TV cameras to broadcast back home, and he got the formal respect he always seeks and responded in kind. But this meeting was a win for Biden: the contrast with President Trump’s embarrassing performance in Helsinki is striking. Trump got nothing. Biden got Russia into conversations the US favors.
Biden claims persistently that personally knowing other world leaders is vital to foreign policy. But his description of his own side of conversations often contrast dramatically with this notion. He is all about convincing other leaders to think about their own country’s interests, not about their personal relations with him. He denies being “friendly” with Xi Jinping, only claiming to know him well. He has consistently downplayed his own remark about Putin being a killer and ignores Putin’s support for Trump. Biden wants the relationship to be about the interests of the two states, not the two leaders. Instead of flattery, he warns that Russian malfeasance could end hopes for foreign investment, in particular if Navalny were to die in prison. He tries, not always successfully, to cast what he wants in terms his adversary might be able to accept. Putin couldn’t care less that blocking cross-border humanitarian aid to rebel-held territory in Syria will cause humanitarian problems.
But Putin did not come to this meeting his usual braggart self. Russia’s economy is in bad shape, he is unpopular after so many years in power, and China is rapidly becoming the superpower he would like Russia to be. Moscow is bogged down in Syria and losing in Libya. Putin needs a better relationship with the US at least as much as Biden needs what he terms a more “stable and predictable” relationship with Russia. Putin also needs the US not to reciprocate interference in the 2016 and 2020 American elections with Washington interference in his re-election effort in 2024. Closing down a few cyberhackers and allowing some independent media might be a reasonable way to try to prevent that. Nor is Putin any more anxious than Biden to spend billions more on strategic nuclear weapons. If they can agree to stand down and focus on getting China to do likewise, Putin won’t be unhappy.
No one should expect a sea change in Putin’s behavior. He is a murderer, as Biden once said, and won’t hesitate to do it again if he thinks it will serve his interests and he can get away with it. Putin is Putin, not Yeltsin. The US should think less about Putin and more about what comes next. As one Muscovite put it to me, Russians love their Czars, until they don’t.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, May 21
– The administration seems to be trying to take a victory lap with the cease-fire in Gaza. Insiders are giving partial tick-tocks to AP and Politico. AP also notes the Biden pattern of public support for Israel and private scolds. NYT says Biden wants to give US aid to Gaza.
In other news, WaPo reports Russian and Iranian rivalry for influence in Syria.
FP says Philippine basing deal coming.
DOD says China wants a base on west coast of Africa.
Senate Foreign Relations and Banking are fighting over CFIUS role in foreign grants to US universities.
And look at this: new searchable data base of LBJ phone calls.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
