Tag: Syria
Peace Picks | February 21 – February 26, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Restoring Humanitarian Access in Ethiopia | February 22, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 9:45 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region has displaced millions, and created massive humanitarian need. Despite negotiated agreements with the United Nations, the federal government and ethnic militias continue to impede humanitarian access, disrupting the delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance to over 2 million people in need. Humanitarian organizations, and the international community, continue to demand full cooperation from the Ethiopian government to allow unfettered access, with limited results.
Speakers
Jan Egeland: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council
Catherine Weisner: Head of External Engagement at the UNHCR Regional Bureau for East Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes
Daniel Bekele: Chief Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program, CSIS
2. Priorities for U.S. Middle East Policy | February 22, 2021 | 9:05 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Meghan L. O’Sullivan: Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project – Harvard University
Will Hurd: Former Representative, R. Texas, U.S. Congress
Suzanne Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
John R. Allen: President, Brookings Institution
3. A conversation with US Acting Assistant Secretary Joey Hood on economic priorities in the Middle East | February 23, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The stability of the Middle East is highly dependent on economic prosperity. Unfortunately, a weakening economic outlook due to the decline in oil prices and ongoing regional conflicts is exacerbated by the pandemic. The young and growing demographics of the region require swift action to create jobs. Without a long-term regional economic strategy that empowers the region’s rich human capital to contribute meaningfully to the economy, we will continue to go from one crisis to the next. The pandemic is providing a strong catalyst for change and sparking economic diversification and growth.
Speakers
Joey Hood: Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Amjad Ahmad (moderator): Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
4. Security Challenges in Africa: 2021 and Beyond | February 24, 2021 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Terrorism and violent extremism are arguably Africa’s greatest security threats in 2021. Local groups with international terror links are embedded in East, West, and Southern Africa. Their activities foment local conflicts and enable organized crime rackets—destabilizing already fragile political landscapes. Meanwhile, years of government-led security force interventions, many supported by U.S. and European governments, have not dislodged the insurgents. Unless local approaches that incorporate tactics beyond kinetic counterterrorism are included in strategies to prevent violent extremism, Africa’s many national and regional efforts will fail to deliver sustainable and credible peace.
Speakers
Dr. Alastair Reed: Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Executive Director, RESOLVE Network
Dr. Akinola Olojo: Senior Researcher, Lake Chad Basin Program, Institute for Security Studies
Dr. Phoebe Donnelly: Research Fellow, International Peace Institute; Member of the RESOLVE Research Advisory Council
Dr. Joseph Sany (moderator): Vice President, Africa Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Bethany L. McGann: Program Officer, Program on Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace; Research and Project Manager, RESOLVE Network
5. Iranian public opinion in the Biden era | February 24, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The election of President Biden has raised expectations for a restoration of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and a de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland recently completed a poll of Iranian public opinion on these and other relevant issues. The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to a discussion of the poll results and their implications for US-Iran diplomacy.
Speakers
Nancy Gallagher: Director, Center for International and Security Studies, University of Maryland
Ellie Geranmayeh: Senior Policy Fellow, Deputy Head of Middle East and North Africa Program, European Council on Foreign Relations
Ilan Goldenberg: Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Barbara Slavin (moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
6. A New Strategy for U.S. Engagement in North Africa | February 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Ten years after the Arab Spring, the socioeconomic and governance grievances that fueled the 2010-2011 uprisings are still prevalent across North Africa, and many have worsened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite North African activists and officials pushing for reform, the region has received little U.S. support. Now, the new Biden administration has an opportunity to prioritize North Africa. The United States can ensure long-term stability by working with European and multilateral partners to counter Russian and Chinese influence and support the people’s demands for greater voice and accountability in the region.
Speakers
Daniel Rubinstein: Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Karim El Aynaoui: President, Policy Center for the New South
Nancy Okail: Visiting Scholar, Center for Development, Democracy, and Rule of Law, Stanford University
Youssef Cherif: Director, Columbia Global Centers Tunis
7. The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation | February 25, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
During Theodore Roosevelt’s presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.
Speakers
Andrew Porwancher: Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program
8. Palestine and the Progressive Movement in the United States | February 25, 2021 | 3:30 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
How can a U.S. policy toward Palestine align more closely with progressive principles? What are the chief obstacles to promoting a justice-oriented approach to Israel/Palestine in the American political sphere? Will the election of new progressive leaders to Congress make this goal more attainable than in the past? To answer these and other questions, please join MEI for a public webinar and book talk with Marc Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick, coauthors of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
Speakers
Marc Lamont Hill: Steve Charles Professor of Media, Cities, and Solutions, Temple University
Mitchell Plitnick: President, ReThinking Foreign Policy
Khaled Elgindy (moderator): Senior Fellow, MEI
9. The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
In August 2013, a massive sarin attack in the Damascus suburbs shocked the world and confronted the Obama White House with an agonizing choice: Whether to enforce the president’s “red line” threat with a military strike, or gamble on a diplomatic solution that offered the appealing prospect of the complete elimination of Syria’s strategic chemical weapons stockpile. Ultimately a deal was struck, and within days the race was on to extract and destroy hundreds of tons of lethal chemicals stashed in military bunkers across Syria, in the middle of a civil war. In his new book Red Line, journalist and author Joby Warrick draws from new documents and hundreds of interviews to reconstruct the key decision points as well as the unprecedented international effort to remove the weapons under fire and then—when no country was willing to accept Syria’s chemicals—to destroy them at sea.
Speakers
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Joby Warrick: Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center
Robert S. Litwick (moderator): Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center
10. Dealing with conflicts and their aftermath | February 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
During the week of February 22, the Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP) at Brookings will host an international conference — bringing together leaders and experts from the region, the United States, and elsewhere in the world — to discuss the top priorities for the United States and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The conference, titled “The Middle East and the new U.S. administration,” marks the successful first year of CMEP’s “Sources of Middle East instability” project. This signature effort brings to bear the center’s expertise in regional geopolitics, deep understanding of key countries, and insight into U.S. foreign policymaking to reassess assumptions about the region and to offer a sound knowledge basis for future policy.
Speakers
Gregory D. Johnson: Nonresident Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
Jomana Qaddour: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy
Daniel L. Byman: Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy
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Peace Picks | February 15 – February 19, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Iraq: A Road Map for Recovery | February 16, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Iraq faces a range of complex and interrelated challenges across the political, socioeconomic, and security sectors. The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung and the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative, with support from DT Institute, convened a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue beginning in March 2020 and continued through virtual venues through December 2020. The dialogue brought together experts from the United States, Europe, and Iraq for a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s cross-sector governance challenges. The attendees included a mix of former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.
In a new report, Iraq: A roadmap for recovery, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff outlines some of the most important discussions, findings, and recommendations of the dialogue. The panel will explore some of the most important discussions of the working groups and share recommendations to support the government of Iraq on its road to recovery.
A link to the meeting will be sent to those who register to attend. The event is open to press and on-the-record.
Speakers:
Dr. Dhiaa Al-Asadi: Former Member of Iraqi Council of Representatives
Amb. Ramon Blecua: Former European Union Ambassador to Iraq
Amb. Feisal Al-Istrabadi: Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East; Professor of the Practice of International Law and Diplomacy, Indiana University, Bloomington
Amb. Rend Al-Rahim: President, Iraq Foundation;
Former Ambassador of Iraq to the United States
Mr. Olin Wethington: Founder and Chairman
Wethington International LLC
Ms. Louisa Loveluck (Moderator): Baghdad Bureau Chief
The Washington Post
2. MENA’s Economic Outlook 2021: Challenges and Opportunities February 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
This is a critical year to revisit economic hopes for the region. The COVID-19 epidemic will continue to constrict national GDPs and as vaccinations accelerate, countries will be looking beyond survival to recovery. The incoming Biden administration will be in the early stages of formulating its Middle East strategy, of which economic development will play a central role. Policy makers will need a carefully considered approach to dealing with a region in the midst of economic and political transformation. We believe this discussion will provide much needed clarity on key questions regarding economic opportunities and challenges facing MENA countries.
Speakers:
Jihad Azour: Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program;
Former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
3. Croatia: Opportunities and Obstacles to Peace and Economic Growth in the Balkans | February 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | The Hoover Institution |Register Here
In this ninth episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and former President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović discuss education reform, peacebuilding in the Balkans, and strategies to achieve energy security and combat cyber-enabled information warfare.
H.R. McMaster in conversation with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, First female President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020)
Speakers:
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović: Former President of the Republic of Croatia (2015- 2020).
H.R McMaster (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
4. Building an Army Ready for Great Power Competition | February 17, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
The Army is aggressively preparing for Great Power Competition by moving beyond incremental improvements and making transformational changes across the entire force. Most notably, the Army announced People as their #1 priority, enabling resources to efforts that take care of people and transform how to manage talent. Army transformation includes implementing new doctrine, new organizations, new ways to train, modern equipment, and how the Army competes around the world. Just recently, the Army announced a new model called Regionally Aligned Readiness and Modernization Model (ReARMM) to balance priorities and requirements. These changes ensure the Army maintains strength for the Great Power Competition environment already on the horizon.
As the Army moves into 2021 there are, however, some storm clouds on the horizon. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley recently predicted “a lot of bloodletting” as the Pentagon tries to fund all the necessary programs in a constrained funding environment. A new administration, with undoubtedly different priorities, will be soon sworn in. The recruiting environment remains difficult.
Speakers:
General James C McConville: 40th Chief of Staff of the US Army
Thomas Spoehr (Moderator): Director, Center for National Defence
5. Nonstate Armed Actors and the US Global Fragility Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities | February 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
In December 2020, the United States released its first U.S. “Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability,” as called for in the 2019 Global Fragility Act. To maximize the strategy’s efficacy, the U.S. government must ensure the implementation plan has a clear goal and theory of success, as well as addresses pressing challenges such as the fallout from COVID-19 and efforts to subvert peace. Chief among these challenges will be nonstate armed actors who are an entrenched driver of violence in nearly every potential priority country, from Central America to East Africa and beyond.
On February 18, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings will hold a panel discussion examining how the U.S. government should think about working with, and through, nonstate armed actors in implementing the fragility strategy. The discussion will address the following questions: How should the Biden administration approach working with nonstate actors as a potential means to maximize efficacy of conflict prevention and stabilization? What, if any, broader changes should it make to engage such actors? What challenges and opportunities do nonstate armed actors pose in potential priority countries?
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote): Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations – U.S. Department of State
Frances Z. Brown: Senior Fellow, Democracy, Governance, and Conflict Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
George Ingram: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development, Center for Sustainable Development
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Vanda Felbab-Brown (Moderator): Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; Co-Director – Africa Security Initiative; Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
6. Turning a Blind Eye: the Human Cost of Trafficking | February 18, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Friends of Europe | Register
Human traffickers run sophisticated operations. Often bypassing border officials, national and local police – and on occasion the judiciary – human trafficking is intimately intertwined with migration. Reports have brought to light how women are taken by trafficking networks during their journey and face widespread sexual exploitation. And the danger does not end at the border – even after arriving at reception centres, shortages of police and guardians for unaccompanied children create hotspots for exploitation and smuggling.
There isn’t a major city in Europe that doesn’t benefit from human trafficking of women and girls. Furthermore, the proceeds of trafficking underpin illegal arms, drugs and terrorism. This is a sinister and dirty equation, and yet we in Europe largely turn a blind eye to it. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, recently released its annual risk analysis, claiming to provide a comprehensive picture of the European Union’s migratory situation. Yet, missing from the picture – human trafficking and its significant impact on women and girls. As the European Commission looks towards its 2021-2025 Action Plan against migrant smuggling, it will be vital to address protections for those on the move and the relationship between human trafficking and organised crime.
This Policy Insight debate will broach the realities of migrant smuggling and address the steps that must be taken to ensure that people on the move can undertake safe and legal journeys.
Speakers:
Ana Christina Jorge: Director of Operational response Division at Frontex
Notis Mitiarachi: Greek Minister of Migration and Asylum
Malaika Oringo: Founder and CEO of Footprint to Freedom and member of the International Survivors of Trafficking Council
Monique Pariat: Director-General for Migration and Home Affairs (DG HOME) at the European Commission
Dharmendra Kanani: Director, Asia, Peace, Security and Defence, Digital and Chief Spokesperson
7. Libya: The great game. A decade of revolution, civil war and foreign intervention | February 18, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ten years after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Muammar al-Qaddafi, the Biden administration is facing renewed challenges in Libya. Placed at the center of great powers’ diverging geopolitical interests, such as those of the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia, Libya will face enormous political, economic and security challenges in the foreseeable future. The Biden administration must now face the current state of play: The United States’ diplomatic absence has left the country in turmoil and facilitated the intervention of foreign powers in the country.
The panel will explore the role of international actors in the post 2011 Libyan political landscape. The panel will also analyze their interactions, as well as the relationship these actors have with forces on the ground. Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East programs in collaboration with the Tripoli-based think tank Sadeq Institute for a public conversation to launch the upcoming publication of the Sadeq Institute’s book part of a long reads collection: Libya: the Great Game. A Decade of Revolution, Civil War and Intervention.
Speakers:
Steven A. Cook: Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow, Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Marta Dassù: Senior Advisor for European Affairs, The Aspen Institute
Anas El Gomati: Founder and Director, Sadeq Institute
Deborah K. Jones: Former United States Ambassador to Libya
Karim Mezran (Moderator): Director, North Africa Initiative, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
8. Veterans, Novices, and Patterns of Rebel Recruitment ? | February 18, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | Register Here
Why do insurgents recruit experienced fighters at some times and untrained novices at others? Research suggests that insurgent organizations place a premium on committed members who demonstrate political devotion. But research also suggests that groups are willing to compromise on commitment when compelled by other priorities. The speaker will argue this extends to recruitment of experienced fighters who are capable and knowledgeable, but also less committed and generally riskier. Specifically, he expects groups will accept these risks and recruit veteran fighters when initially building their organization, when transitioning to new modes of warfare, and when competing with peer organizations for dominance.
At other times, groups should more readily focus their efforts on novices who can be molded to fit their less urgent operational needs. The speaker will evaluate this theory with a case study of Al Qaeda in Iraq and its successor, the Islamic State. This research sheds light on an understudied component of insurgent recruitment that has implications for organizational behavior, counterinsurgency, intergroup conflict, and civilian victimization.
Speakers:
Evan Perkoski: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program
9. Is Now Finally the Time to Discuss Inequality in Lebanon? | February 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Middle East Center | Watch Here
Lebanon’s political economy has long been described as exceptional. The trope of a “Lebanese economic miracle,” in which Lebanon is a paragon of economic success, was long amplified by the ruling elite in order to maintain a status quo.
The 2019-2020 crises not only swept away this idea but also made blatant another kind of exceptionalism in the country—its record-high income and wealth inequality, which is perpetuated by the corrupt political economy. Extreme inequality is not a new phenomenon, however; rather it was brushed aside by the ruling elite, which largely consists of the nation’s wealthiest.
How can Lebanon create a new economic model that would put social justice at its core? Did the 2019 revolution create the opportunity to think and design policies that could decrease inequality levels? Join us for a conversation with Lydia Assouad, Toufic Gaspard, Haneen Sayed, and Gregg Carlstrom to discuss Lebanon’s worsening inequality and Assouad’s latest paper, Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring, on Friday, February 19 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (10:00-11:00 a.m. EST).
Speakers:
Lydia Assouad: El-Erian fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center where her research focuses on public and political economics.
Toufic Gaspard: Former senior economic adviser to the Lebanese minister of finance and adviser to the International Monetary Fund.
Haneen Sayed: Lead human development specialist at the World Bank.
Gregg Carlstrom: Middle East correspondent with The Economist.
10. The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath | February 19, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Syria program is pleased to announce a panel discussion to launch Syrian Requiem: The Syrian Civil War and its Aftermath (Princeton University, 2021). In this volume, the authors trace the origins and escalation of the conflict from 2011 protests in Deraa to the current state of widespread humanitarian devastation and displacement a decade later.
The authors will be joined by MEI Syria Program Advisory Council Member Rime Allaf and MEI Senior Fellow Robert Ford, who will reflect on the origins and development of this conflict and explore what avenues exist today toward reconciliation, humanitarian relief, or solutions for the millions of displaced Syrians around the world.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Itamar Rabinovich (author): President, the Israel Institute; Israel’s Chief Negotiator with Syria in 1990s
Carmit Valensi (author): Research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
Rime Allaf: Advisory Council Member, MEI Syria Program
Amb. (ret.) Robert Ford: Senior fellow, MEI
Charles Lister (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Syria and CTE programs, MEI
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The problem no one really wants to solve
Ten years after its internal conflict started, Elizabeth Thompson of American University hosted a panel on what the the Biden Administration might be able to do about Syria. Conditions there are dire. US policy has been disappointing. What can a new president do to establish a legitimate government able to rebuild? Mustafa Gurbuz, also of American University, moderated.
Hadeel Oueis of BBC Arabic reminded what has gone wrong in Syria. The Assad regime responded brutally to protests, which pushed them in the the direction of militarization and Islamicization, as militia groups and Islamists had advantages in financing and organization. Peaceful change was quickly ruled out. Today, the best prospects are in the Northeast, where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control security and the autonomous administration governs in a decentralized way, with strong participation by women as well as checks and balances.
Amy Austin Holmes of the Council on Foreign Relations suggested we don’t know what to expect from Biden about Syria specifically, a subject neither he nor his people have addressed except for humanitarian imperatives, but if he wants to reclaim US credibility and moral authority bold steps are needed on three issues concerning vulnerable people:
- ISIS still a big problem, especially at the Al Hol camp. Washington should take back its own citizens from there for trial in the US and establish a timeline for other countries to take back theirs.
- Christians and Yezidis still under threat. Hundreds of thousands have fled the Turkish intervention in northern Syria intervention and should be enabled to return home.
- Kurds, and in particular Kurdish women, have been excluded from diplomatic talks on Syria. They play strong roles in northeastern Syria in both the SDF forces and in the civilian autonomous administration. Biden has given women important roles in his own cabinet, and it has been demonstrated repeatedly that women’s participation in peace talks leads to improved outcomes.
US forces are likely to remain in northeastern Syria to work by, with, and through the SDF, which has demonstrated significant capacity to overcome Arab/Kurdish tensions.
Dafne McCurdy of CSIS underlined that Syria will not be a top priority for Biden but that its humanitarian crisis ranks high, especially with Samantha Power at USAID. The situation is dire, but the US can have a positive impact because it is the biggest donor. It will need to focus on two priorities:
- Renewal of cross-border assistance in western Syria: The UN Security Council will vote in July on whether to keep open the one remaining authorized border crossing for aid to Idlib. If it fails to do so, the US may still be able to use nongovernmental organizations to ship aid across the border, but not at the scale that the UN is capable of.
- Reform of aid to regime-controlled areas, which Assad has used to reward supporters.
Humanitarian aid is not political, but stabilization assistance is, especially in an area of geopolitical competition. The US needs to buttress local authorities who stand up to outside meddling. But US goals have not been clear, because they are limited to one part of Syria and therefore disconnected from a nation-wide strategy. President Trump’s erratic policy did not allow stabilization to play its proper role in geopolitical competition.
Aaron Stein of the Foreign Policy Research Institute agreed that Syria is not a high priority for the Biden administration. The Syrian opposition won’t be a strong factor in its decisionmaking. The main issues will be humanitarian assistance and counter-terrorism. Washington needs to be talking with the Russians, who are in a strong position in Syria. Sanctions work to impoverish the Syrian regime, but they have been ineffective in producing a sustained political outcome. Some eventual sanctions relief in exchange for release of political prisoners is a possibility. The proliferation of arms and the large numbers of fighters will be problems for many years.
Idlib is essentially a stalemate, with Russia and the regime on one side and Turkey on the other, along with the HTS al Qaeda offshoot who are trying to soften their image. The best outcome is the status quo from the US perspective, but it leaves the US dependent on designated terrorist groups in both northwestern (HTS) and northeastern Syria (the PKK, which is the core of the SDF). The US is stuck with bad options.
Joshua Landis, University of Oklahoma, views Assad as having won militarily, as he now controls 65-70% of Syria’s territory but he wants it all. Washington wants political change and has used aid as a tool to feed the opposition as much as regime has used it against the opposition. Assad will focus in the immediate future not on Idlib, which is hard, but on northeastern Syria, because it is a soft spot. He may go after Tanf, which is important to trade links with Iraq and Iran. The Syrian people are pawns in larger geopolitical struggle
Trump used Turkey against Iran and Russia, thus limiting what Assad could do in the north. Biden is likely to be less friendly to Turkey but won’t want to undermine the Turks in Syria. Some Americans are talking about a federal Syria, with Idlib and the northeast remaining outside Damascus’ control as the US presses for regime change there. But in the end the big issues for the Americans are pulling Turkey out of Russia’s orbit and dealing with Iran. Biden might toughen on Iran in Syria because of the nuclear deal, where he will need to soften.
Bottom line: Syria is not a problem Washington will focus on, as there are no good solutions. But they are likely to keep troops there. If the Americans were to withdraw, the Kurds would be sitting ducks and would have to make a deal with Damascus. Their civilian and military organizations would crumble. At least now in the northeast there is a military command under a civilian government. In the northwest, military and Islamist forces rule under Turkish control.
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Requiem for Syria, but some hope for US diplomacy
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
On February 4, Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, discussed their new book, Syrian Requiem, which details the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, surveys the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examines the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others. The speakers at the event are listed below:
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann (moderator): Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studies
Origins of the Crisis
Both structural and proximate factors have contributed to the ongoing crisis in Syria. Rabinovich identified flaws in US foreign policy under both Obama and Trump as some of the key proximate causes for the depth of the crisis in Syria. In particular, he argued that Obama’s refusal to arm the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in 2012 and 2013 severely hampered the opposition’s ability to combat the regime. Jouejati similarly identified the failure to arm the FSA as a critical mistake, while also arguing that Obama should have responded more forcefully when Assad crossed his infamous red line regarding the use of chemical weapons. Jouejati pointed to this sign of weakness as a clear signal to Russia that the US would allow Moscow free reign in Syria to dictate the outcome of events.
Rabinovich also noted several structural factors that he believes will continue to generate instability in Syria. First, the artificial borders originating from the notorious Sykes-Picot agreement have created an inherently flawed state. Second, the autocratic nature of the Syrian state under Assad will continue to foster reciprocal resistance and violence. Valensi pointed to Assad’s continued use of violence and repression in reclaimed territory, as well as his focus on strengthening the state security apparatus prior to reconstruction, as evidence that the Assad regime will continue to engender opposition.
Assad’s Prospects
With substantial support from Russia and Iran, Assad has made significant military advances since 2015. However, all of the panelists believe that Assad’s prospects for consolidating control over the country remain dim. Valensi points to three key signs that Assad will struggle to bring the entire country back into the fold. First, even after the military successes of the past few years, Assad still only controls 60% of the territory. Second, both his military success and his ability to maintain control over conquered territory is largely predicated on either physical or monetary support from Russia and Iran. Should that support begin to wane, Assad’s ability to control territory will diminish. Finally, Assad does not have the resources to reconstruct the country, and both Russia and Iran are unlikely to have the necessary capacity or willingness to provide enough financial support.
Jouejati added another critical sign of Assad’s long-term instability. The COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the Lebanese economy have severely exacerbated the economic crisis in Syria. Even in the heart of regime-controlled territory, state subsidies for bread have decreased and people complain of long lines for fuel. As a result, Assad is currently witnessing a worrying decline in support from even his most loyal followers.
Paths Forward
The multitude of stressors on the Assad regime suggests that the US may have some leverage to promote an end to the Syrian civil war. However, while all of the panelists believed that the US has more leverage in Syria than has commonly been acknowledged, they differed on precisely where the US should apply pressure. In particular, the panelists debated which actor is the most promising for asserting influence on the Assad regime. Valensi argued that the new Biden administration should attempt to boost the UN diplomatic process through UN Resolution 2254, despite Heydemann’s critique of the UN process as the example of “zombie diplomacy” par excellence. Jouejati favored US support of a Russian-led diplomatic process, arguing that Russia has indicated a softening of its support for Assad. Heydemann, however, expressed concern that Russia has sent these signals before without ever in fact wavering in its support for the Assad regime.
However, the panelists did agree that the limited US military presence remaining in Syria provides significantly more leverage than many people have recognized. However, they did not advocate for a more expansive military presence, instead arguing that even limited presence and military action can be used strategically. Valensi pointed to Trump’s limited strikes in response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons as evidence that limited engagement need not necessarily be a prelude to full intervention.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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America is back, but where and how is not yet clear
President Biden today in two appearances at the State Department–one for the staff and one to address foreign policy–was anxious to say that America is back to diplomacy, to the defense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and to cooperating with allies. His foreign policy will, he said, benefit Americans, whose security and welfare will be primary goals.
He is clear enough about Russia and China. He’ll be much tougher on the former than Trump, calling out its repression and even murder of dissidents and countering cyberhacking and election interference, while seeking areas of common interest like the already extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. On China, the policy will be similar to Trump’s in aiming to compete as well as cooperate, but with more attention to human rights and less inclination to trade wars, though the tariffs don’t appear to be coming down yet.
In the Middle East, Biden was clear about one thing: he wants a negotiated end to the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and will cut off American support to the Saudis and Emiratis. So much materiel has already been transferred that this make take some time to have a logistical impact, but the psychological impact will be immediate. The Hadi government the Saudis and Emiratis have backed is going to have to cut a deal or step aside so someone else can. It is unclear what the Houthis will be willing to yield, as they currently have the upper hand in much of the fighting, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Biden has also made it clear he is prepared to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) if Tehran does likewise. But the sequencing of the respective returns, and precisely what they amount to in terms of sanctions relief and nuclear reversal, are still unclear. So is any future nuclear agenda: the Iranians have so far refused widening, deepening, or prolonging the JCPOA.
On the rest of the Middle East, Biden has left things unclear. He has said little or nothing about:
- Syria, where the US still has forces pursuing ISIS, protecting oil wells, and cooperating with Kurdish-led insurgents regarded as terrorists by NATO ally Turkey,
- Palestine, though he has renewed diplomatic contacts with the Palestinian Authority and will presumably return to the two-state goal Trump tried to obliterate,
- Iraq, where US forces were drawn down to 2500 by his predecessor,
- Libya, where the UN has been making some apparent progress on ending the civil war.
- Egypt, where President Sisi has imposed a renewed autocracy at least as ferocious as either of his two immediate predecessors.
Each of these countries is at least as important to the United States as Yemen, but it is unclear what “America is back” means to them. Americans are tired of these longstanding messes, whose resolution is hard to tie directly to American security and welfare, even if we know that withdrawal from them could be costly.
America is really good at getting in, especially if can be done with warplanes and troops. It is much harder to get out, which requires diplomacy. But at least we now have a president who believes in diplomacy and is prepared to back America’s diplomats.
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Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?
Speakers:
Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders
Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University
Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania
2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Watch Here
Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program.
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples
Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI
3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group | Watch Here
The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.
Speakers:
Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service
Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group
Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission
Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group
Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group
Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group
Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group
Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service
4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.
This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.
Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.
Speakers:
Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles
Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel
Chaired by:
Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel
5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie
6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Moderated By:
Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc
7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here
Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control.
Speakers:
Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense
George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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