Tag: Syria
The problem no one really wants to solve
Ten years after its internal conflict started, Elizabeth Thompson of American University hosted a panel on what the the Biden Administration might be able to do about Syria. Conditions there are dire. US policy has been disappointing. What can a new president do to establish a legitimate government able to rebuild? Mustafa Gurbuz, also of American University, moderated.
Hadeel Oueis of BBC Arabic reminded what has gone wrong in Syria. The Assad regime responded brutally to protests, which pushed them in the the direction of militarization and Islamicization, as militia groups and Islamists had advantages in financing and organization. Peaceful change was quickly ruled out. Today, the best prospects are in the Northeast, where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control security and the autonomous administration governs in a decentralized way, with strong participation by women as well as checks and balances.
Amy Austin Holmes of the Council on Foreign Relations suggested we don’t know what to expect from Biden about Syria specifically, a subject neither he nor his people have addressed except for humanitarian imperatives, but if he wants to reclaim US credibility and moral authority bold steps are needed on three issues concerning vulnerable people:
- ISIS still a big problem, especially at the Al Hol camp. Washington should take back its own citizens from there for trial in the US and establish a timeline for other countries to take back theirs.
- Christians and Yezidis still under threat. Hundreds of thousands have fled the Turkish intervention in northern Syria intervention and should be enabled to return home.
- Kurds, and in particular Kurdish women, have been excluded from diplomatic talks on Syria. They play strong roles in northeastern Syria in both the SDF forces and in the civilian autonomous administration. Biden has given women important roles in his own cabinet, and it has been demonstrated repeatedly that women’s participation in peace talks leads to improved outcomes.
US forces are likely to remain in northeastern Syria to work by, with, and through the SDF, which has demonstrated significant capacity to overcome Arab/Kurdish tensions.
Dafne McCurdy of CSIS underlined that Syria will not be a top priority for Biden but that its humanitarian crisis ranks high, especially with Samantha Power at USAID. The situation is dire, but the US can have a positive impact because it is the biggest donor. It will need to focus on two priorities:
- Renewal of cross-border assistance in western Syria: The UN Security Council will vote in July on whether to keep open the one remaining authorized border crossing for aid to Idlib. If it fails to do so, the US may still be able to use nongovernmental organizations to ship aid across the border, but not at the scale that the UN is capable of.
- Reform of aid to regime-controlled areas, which Assad has used to reward supporters.
Humanitarian aid is not political, but stabilization assistance is, especially in an area of geopolitical competition. The US needs to buttress local authorities who stand up to outside meddling. But US goals have not been clear, because they are limited to one part of Syria and therefore disconnected from a nation-wide strategy. President Trump’s erratic policy did not allow stabilization to play its proper role in geopolitical competition.
Aaron Stein of the Foreign Policy Research Institute agreed that Syria is not a high priority for the Biden administration. The Syrian opposition won’t be a strong factor in its decisionmaking. The main issues will be humanitarian assistance and counter-terrorism. Washington needs to be talking with the Russians, who are in a strong position in Syria. Sanctions work to impoverish the Syrian regime, but they have been ineffective in producing a sustained political outcome. Some eventual sanctions relief in exchange for release of political prisoners is a possibility. The proliferation of arms and the large numbers of fighters will be problems for many years.
Idlib is essentially a stalemate, with Russia and the regime on one side and Turkey on the other, along with the HTS al Qaeda offshoot who are trying to soften their image. The best outcome is the status quo from the US perspective, but it leaves the US dependent on designated terrorist groups in both northwestern (HTS) and northeastern Syria (the PKK, which is the core of the SDF). The US is stuck with bad options.
Joshua Landis, University of Oklahoma, views Assad as having won militarily, as he now controls 65-70% of Syria’s territory but he wants it all. Washington wants political change and has used aid as a tool to feed the opposition as much as regime has used it against the opposition. Assad will focus in the immediate future not on Idlib, which is hard, but on northeastern Syria, because it is a soft spot. He may go after Tanf, which is important to trade links with Iraq and Iran. The Syrian people are pawns in larger geopolitical struggle
Trump used Turkey against Iran and Russia, thus limiting what Assad could do in the north. Biden is likely to be less friendly to Turkey but won’t want to undermine the Turks in Syria. Some Americans are talking about a federal Syria, with Idlib and the northeast remaining outside Damascus’ control as the US presses for regime change there. But in the end the big issues for the Americans are pulling Turkey out of Russia’s orbit and dealing with Iran. Biden might toughen on Iran in Syria because of the nuclear deal, where he will need to soften.
Bottom line: Syria is not a problem Washington will focus on, as there are no good solutions. But they are likely to keep troops there. If the Americans were to withdraw, the Kurds would be sitting ducks and would have to make a deal with Damascus. Their civilian and military organizations would crumble. At least now in the northeast there is a military command under a civilian government. In the northwest, military and Islamist forces rule under Turkish control.
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Requiem for Syria, but some hope for US diplomacy
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
On February 4, Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, discussed their new book, Syrian Requiem, which details the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, surveys the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examines the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others. The speakers at the event are listed below:
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann (moderator): Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studies
Origins of the Crisis
Both structural and proximate factors have contributed to the ongoing crisis in Syria. Rabinovich identified flaws in US foreign policy under both Obama and Trump as some of the key proximate causes for the depth of the crisis in Syria. In particular, he argued that Obama’s refusal to arm the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in 2012 and 2013 severely hampered the opposition’s ability to combat the regime. Jouejati similarly identified the failure to arm the FSA as a critical mistake, while also arguing that Obama should have responded more forcefully when Assad crossed his infamous red line regarding the use of chemical weapons. Jouejati pointed to this sign of weakness as a clear signal to Russia that the US would allow Moscow free reign in Syria to dictate the outcome of events.
Rabinovich also noted several structural factors that he believes will continue to generate instability in Syria. First, the artificial borders originating from the notorious Sykes-Picot agreement have created an inherently flawed state. Second, the autocratic nature of the Syrian state under Assad will continue to foster reciprocal resistance and violence. Valensi pointed to Assad’s continued use of violence and repression in reclaimed territory, as well as his focus on strengthening the state security apparatus prior to reconstruction, as evidence that the Assad regime will continue to engender opposition.
Assad’s Prospects
With substantial support from Russia and Iran, Assad has made significant military advances since 2015. However, all of the panelists believe that Assad’s prospects for consolidating control over the country remain dim. Valensi points to three key signs that Assad will struggle to bring the entire country back into the fold. First, even after the military successes of the past few years, Assad still only controls 60% of the territory. Second, both his military success and his ability to maintain control over conquered territory is largely predicated on either physical or monetary support from Russia and Iran. Should that support begin to wane, Assad’s ability to control territory will diminish. Finally, Assad does not have the resources to reconstruct the country, and both Russia and Iran are unlikely to have the necessary capacity or willingness to provide enough financial support.
Jouejati added another critical sign of Assad’s long-term instability. The COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the Lebanese economy have severely exacerbated the economic crisis in Syria. Even in the heart of regime-controlled territory, state subsidies for bread have decreased and people complain of long lines for fuel. As a result, Assad is currently witnessing a worrying decline in support from even his most loyal followers.
Paths Forward
The multitude of stressors on the Assad regime suggests that the US may have some leverage to promote an end to the Syrian civil war. However, while all of the panelists believed that the US has more leverage in Syria than has commonly been acknowledged, they differed on precisely where the US should apply pressure. In particular, the panelists debated which actor is the most promising for asserting influence on the Assad regime. Valensi argued that the new Biden administration should attempt to boost the UN diplomatic process through UN Resolution 2254, despite Heydemann’s critique of the UN process as the example of “zombie diplomacy” par excellence. Jouejati favored US support of a Russian-led diplomatic process, arguing that Russia has indicated a softening of its support for Assad. Heydemann, however, expressed concern that Russia has sent these signals before without ever in fact wavering in its support for the Assad regime.
However, the panelists did agree that the limited US military presence remaining in Syria provides significantly more leverage than many people have recognized. However, they did not advocate for a more expansive military presence, instead arguing that even limited presence and military action can be used strategically. Valensi pointed to Trump’s limited strikes in response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons as evidence that limited engagement need not necessarily be a prelude to full intervention.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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America is back, but where and how is not yet clear
President Biden today in two appearances at the State Department–one for the staff and one to address foreign policy–was anxious to say that America is back to diplomacy, to the defense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and to cooperating with allies. His foreign policy will, he said, benefit Americans, whose security and welfare will be primary goals.
He is clear enough about Russia and China. He’ll be much tougher on the former than Trump, calling out its repression and even murder of dissidents and countering cyberhacking and election interference, while seeking areas of common interest like the already extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. On China, the policy will be similar to Trump’s in aiming to compete as well as cooperate, but with more attention to human rights and less inclination to trade wars, though the tariffs don’t appear to be coming down yet.
In the Middle East, Biden was clear about one thing: he wants a negotiated end to the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and will cut off American support to the Saudis and Emiratis. So much materiel has already been transferred that this make take some time to have a logistical impact, but the psychological impact will be immediate. The Hadi government the Saudis and Emiratis have backed is going to have to cut a deal or step aside so someone else can. It is unclear what the Houthis will be willing to yield, as they currently have the upper hand in much of the fighting, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Biden has also made it clear he is prepared to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) if Tehran does likewise. But the sequencing of the respective returns, and precisely what they amount to in terms of sanctions relief and nuclear reversal, are still unclear. So is any future nuclear agenda: the Iranians have so far refused widening, deepening, or prolonging the JCPOA.
On the rest of the Middle East, Biden has left things unclear. He has said little or nothing about:
- Syria, where the US still has forces pursuing ISIS, protecting oil wells, and cooperating with Kurdish-led insurgents regarded as terrorists by NATO ally Turkey,
- Palestine, though he has renewed diplomatic contacts with the Palestinian Authority and will presumably return to the two-state goal Trump tried to obliterate,
- Iraq, where US forces were drawn down to 2500 by his predecessor,
- Libya, where the UN has been making some apparent progress on ending the civil war.
- Egypt, where President Sisi has imposed a renewed autocracy at least as ferocious as either of his two immediate predecessors.
Each of these countries is at least as important to the United States as Yemen, but it is unclear what “America is back” means to them. Americans are tired of these longstanding messes, whose resolution is hard to tie directly to American security and welfare, even if we know that withdrawal from them could be costly.
America is really good at getting in, especially if can be done with warplanes and troops. It is much harder to get out, which requires diplomacy. But at least we now have a president who believes in diplomacy and is prepared to back America’s diplomats.
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Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?
Speakers:
Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders
Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University
Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania
2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Watch Here
Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program.
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples
Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI
3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group | Watch Here
The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.
Speakers:
Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service
Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group
Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission
Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group
Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group
Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group
Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group
Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service
4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.
This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.
Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.
Speakers:
Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles
Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel
Chaired by:
Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel
5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie
6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Moderated By:
Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc
7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here
Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control.
Speakers:
Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense
George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Peace Picks | December 7 – December 11, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Insecurity in Northeast Nigeria and Beyond | December 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest economies, is also the lynchpin of security in western Africa. Yet for over a decade, it has struggled to address devastating jihadi insurgencies and terrorism by Boko Haram and the Islamic State. Victory against both groups remains elusive and security in northeastern Nigeria has significantly deteriorated since 2017. Insecurity has also spread to northwestern Nigeria with the farmers-herders’ conflict, which is compounded by the intensifying effects of global warming and remains dormant at best. Proliferating across the country, militia groups add another complex security challenge. Amidst these widespread challenges, Nigerians are demanding meaningful human security and accountability from the often-brutal military and law enforcement forces, such as the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty and inequality and fractious political processes.
On December 7, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. After their remarks, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Ambassador John Campbell: Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, and former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria – The Council on Foreign Relations
Takwa Z. Suifon: Peace and Development Advisor to the United Nations Resident Coordinator – United Nations Country Team in Nigeria
Sophia Comfort Michael: Manager – Norwegian Refugee Council in Nigeria
Siobhan O’Neil: Project Director of the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown, moderator: Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed ActorsCo-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
2. Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next | December 7, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM; 4:00 – 5:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
For the last eight years, the annual PeaceCon conference has offered a dynamic platform for frontline peacebuilders, policymakers, philanthropists, and private sector and civil society leaders working at the nexus of peacebuilding, security, and development to engage in meaningful dialogue and develop substantive plans for action. This year’s conference—with the theme “Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next”—will explore the relationship between justice and peacebuilding in the context of COVID-19 and the worldwide reckoning over systemic injustice and racism.
With the move to an entirely virtual format, PeaceCon 2020 aims to attract an even more diverse set of voices, expertise, and ideas from across the world. Sessions will go beyond exploring the problems and will challenge participants to put forward differing points of view and distill learning outcomes into pragmatic solutions.
Join USIP, in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding, as we kickstart PeaceCon 2020 with a high-level keynote and panel discussion on December 7, 2020. The discussion will address the relationship between COVID-19, conflict, and fragility, and consider strategies for the international community to address the peace and security implications of the pandemic. Following a series of breakout sessions hosted by the Alliance for Peacebuilding, participants will re-join USIP for a fireside chat with Darren Walker, the president of the Ford Foundation.
Agenda
9:00am – 10:30am: AfP-USIP Plenary Session
Welcome Remarks
Lise Grande: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Uzra Zeya: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Julia Roig: Chair, Board of Directors, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Keynote Address
Senator Chris Coons (D-DE): U.S. Senator from Delaware
High Level Panel: COVID and Fragility: Risks and Recovery
Paige Alexander: CEO, The Carter Center
David Beasley: Executive Director, World Food Programme
Tjada D’Oyen McKenna: CEO, Mercy Corps
Ambassador Mark Green: Executive Director, McCain Institute
Dr. Joseph Hewitt, moderator: Vice President for Policy, Learning & Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
4:00pm – 5:00pm: Afternoon Keynote: Fireside Chat with Darren Walker
Darren Walker: President, Ford Foundation
Uzra Zeya, moderator: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
3. A Conversation with Belarusian Opposition Leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | December 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Belarus has been rocked by mass protests since its longtime authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, claimed victory in the country’s rigged August 9 presidential election. After being forced to flee the country due to threats to her family, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—widely recognized by the international community as the real winner of the election—has led the Belarusian opposition movement while conducting an international campaign to rally support for the Belarusian people in their peaceful protests to remove Lukashenka from power. With firm backing from Russian President Vladimir Putin and an inability to keep protesters from filling the streets each week, Lukashenka and his security forces have illegally detained, beaten, and tortured Belarusians for demonstrating against his government. Tsikhanouskaya has fought for the advancement of self-determination, human rights, and freedom in Belarus, and is the recipient of the European Union’s Sakharov Prize, the bloc’s top human rights award. Today, Tsikhanouskaya continues to lead the Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power, recognized by EU lawmakers as the legitimate representative of the Belarusian people.
Speakers:
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Belarusian Opposition Leader
4. Responding to Venezuela’s Parliamentary Elections | December 7, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
On December 6th, the Maduro regime will hold National Assembly elections despite lacking adequate electoral conditions. Though many countries will not recognize the results of these elections, the regime is nevertheless expected to replace the current opposition-led National Assembly with the newly elected legislators on January 5th.
In the wake of these elections, the international community will have two important decisions to make. States will decide whether and how to uphold the legitimacy of the Venezuelan interim government, which derives its legitimacy from the current National Assembly. States will also decide whether and how to continue recognizing the 2015-2020 National Assembly, which could have its mandate extended if there is no legitimately elected legislature to take its place. These decisions will impact the Interim Government’s representation abroad, determining the extent to which the Venezuelan opposition can continue to safeguard external assets, protect Venezuela’s resources, oversee humanitarian assistance, denounce human rights violations, and facilitate a peaceful democratic transition.
Speakers
Carrie Filipetti: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cuba and Venezuela, U.S. Department of State
José Ignacio Hernández: Former Special Prosecutor of the Venezuela Interim Government
Michael Grant: Assistant Deputy Minister for the Americas, Global Affairs Canada
5. Understanding a Year of Political Turmoil in and Around Russia | December 8, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
A constitutional overhaul. Protests in Khabarovsk and a flawed election in Belarus. An anemic economy and a raging pandemic. A poisoned opposition leader. Turkish forces deployed in Azerbaijan, Russia’s ‘near abroad.’ For the Kremlin, 2020 was supposed to be a triumphant year but it rapidly transformed into one of deep uncertainty and malaise. How should we interpret all of these events? As rumors circulate in Moscow questioning President Putin’s longevity as Russia’s leader, is the regime stable? Where is public opinion trending ahead of the consequential 2021 Duma elections? How do a younger generation view Russia’s future? And, what does all of this mean for Europe and the incoming Biden administration?
Speakers
Denis Volkov: Deputy Director, Levada Center
Andrei Kolesnikov: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Moscow Center
Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: Director, Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding
6. Five Years Later: UNSCR 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security | December 8, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
December 9 will mark five years since the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security (YPS). UNSCR 2250 was a milestone in the international community’s affirmation that youth play a significant role in realizing global peace and security. While youth have previously been depicted as victims, targets, or perpetrators of violent conflict, UNSCR 2250 represented a shift in discourse toward youth as peacebuilders and agents of change capable of preventing, mitigating, and resolving conflict in their communities.
Studies have demonstrated that including and partnering with young people helps foster a more sustainable peace. However, despite continued support from the U.N., and grassroots efforts to encourage inclusive representation of youth in decision making, there remain structural barriers that prevent youth from contributing to YPS on national, regional, and local levels.
Join USIP for a discussion with the co-chair of the Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security and two youth peacebuilders as they reflect on the tangible progress that has been made on the YPS agenda since the passage of Resolution 2250, as well as the challenges to effective implementation of the agenda around the world.
Speakers:
David Yang, welcoming remarks: Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lorena Gómez Ramírez: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Cécile Mazzacurati: Head, Secretariat on Youth, Peace and Security, United Nations Population Fund; Co-chair, Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security
Mridul Upadhyay: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Rebecca Ebenezer-Abiola, moderator: Program Officer, Curriculum and Training Design, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Belarus: Is the Tide Turning? | December 8, 2020 | 12:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The democratic revolution in Belarus has outlasted expectations despite mass detentions, torture of democratic activists, and crackdowns on independent media perpetrated by dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Since demonstrations began in August, the United States and European Union have each condemned the state’s violent treatment of protestors while expanding sanctions against Lukashenka and his cronies. But with financial and security assistance from the Kremlin propping up the authoritarian regime, Congress and the incoming Biden administration must do more to support the Belarusian people in their struggle for freedom and democracy.
Speakers
Ambassador John Herbst: director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Franak Viačorka: nonresident fellow at the Eurasia Center; adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Michael Carpenter: nonresident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center; senior director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement
Melinda Haring, moderator: deputy director of the Eurasia Center
8. Lessons from Afar: Anti-Apartheid, the Arab Spring, and the Path Forward | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment of Peace | Register Here
The anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa captured the world’s attention during the latter half of the 20th century, just as the Arab Spring did in the early 21st. Precisely three decades after Nelson Mandela’s release from prison and a decade from the start of the Arab Spring, what lessons can we draw from South Africa as the Middle East continues to seek stability? And as people across the world confront rising authoritarianism, how can these important moments in history be guiding lights for lasting change?
Speakers
H. A. Hellyer: senior associate fellow and scholar at the Royal United Services Institute in London; nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Shafiq Morton: an award-winning Cape Town-based journalist
Ebrahim Rasool: former Ambassador of South Africa to the United States
Zaha Hassan: human rights lawyer, visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
9. How Movements Fight Corruption | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In the fight against corruption, civil society is often at the forefront of advancing innovative plans and solutions to increase government transparency and accountability and ultimately root out graft across different sectors. The urgent global response to the COVID-19 pandemic makes this function of civil society all the more crucial, as the same measures meant to stem the pandemic’s devastating health and economic effects also heighten the risk of corruption. As the world celebrates International Anti-Corruption Day, it’s important to elevate the voices of civil society leaders and movements working diligently to stifle and prevent corruption—as well as address the challenges they face.
Join USIP for a discussion on these citizen and movement efforts, including those in Guatemala, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. This event will feature activists, scholars of nonviolent action, and international donors to explore the various ways bottom-up pressure can be used to make governments more open, hold leaders accountable, and prevent and curb corruption. This conversation will also draw insights from a series of USIP Special Reports, products of a multi-year research project in six different countries, to provide lessons on how policymakers and international actors can best support movements working to advance transparency and accountability.
Speakers:
Gladys Kudzaishe Hlatywayo: Secretary for International Relations, MDC Alliance
Olena Tregub: Secretary General, Independent Defence Anti-Corruption Committee, Transparency International
Walter Flores: Principal Advisor, Center for Studies for Equity and Governance in Health Systems
Bryan Sims: Senior Manager of Peacebuilding, Humanity United
Shaazka Beyerle, moderator: Senior Fellow, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, George Mason University
10. What does Aung San Suu Kyi’s Electoral Success Mean for Myanmar? | December 9, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The governing National League for Democracy won a stunning victory in Myanmar’s recent election. Supporters claim the NLD’s strong showing represents an endorsement of Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership. Critics point to flaws in the electoral process, including censorship of NLD opponents and disenfranchisement of Rohingyas and other ethnic minorities. How will the NLD’s mandate affect democratic development and progress in the peace process? How should the incoming Biden administration respond to Myanmar?
Speakers
Scot Marciel: Former US Ambassador to Myanmar (2016-20); Visiting Practitioner Fellow on Southeast Asia, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
Mary Callahan: Associate Professor of International Studies from the University of Washington.
William Wise, moderator: Non-Resident Fellow and Chair, Southeast Asia Forum, Stimson Center
11. Lessons Learned for Afghanistan from El Salvador’s Peace Process | December 10, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began in Doha, Qatar in September 2020, providing an unprecedented opportunity for peace after forty years of conflict and war. As these critical negotiations unfold, it is important to consider historical examples of countries who have successfully overcome seemingly intractable conflicts to forge peace.
This event will highlight important lessons from El Salvador’s peace process in order to provide insight into the ongoing Afghan peace talks. While the conditions are significantly different than those in Afghanistan, the peace process to end the civil war in El Salvador can provide key lessons for Afghanistan on complex peace negotiations by highlighting both the successes and challenges of their peace process.
Speakers
Ambassador Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs (2013-2017) and Ambassador to El Salvador (1997-2000)
Ambassador Álvaro de Soto: Former UN Secretary-General’s Representative for El Salvador peace negotiations
General Mauricio “Chato” Vargas: Congressman, San Salvador, El Salvador
Ambassador Ruben Zamora: Former Salvadoran Ambassador to the United Nations (2014-2017) and Salvadoran Ambassador to the United States (2013-2014)
12. 50 Years of the Assad Dynasty | December 10, 2020 | 2:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On November 13, 1970, Syria witnessed its last of many coups following its 1946 independence from the French. Fifty years later, the country remains led by a dynasty that has outlasted not only nine American presidents, but has also managed to maintain its iron grip over Syria while surrounding regimes have successively succumbed to regional upheaval.
This panel will reflect on the Assad family’s impact on Syria and the region, its relationship with the United States, and what the future might hold for the family and the regime.
Agenda:
Opening remarks
William Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Ibrahim Al-Assil: Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute
Rahaf Aldoughli: Lecturer in Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University
Steven Heydemann: Janet Wright Ketcham 1953 Chair in Middle East Studies, Smith College
Joseph Bahout: Director, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Rima Maktabi, moderator: UK Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya News Channel
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Peace Picks | November 30 – December 4, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. France and Islam: Identity, Politics, and Geopolitics | November 30, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
France’s contentious policy on the public practice of Islam has struck multiple identity and political fault lines, not only in France or Europe, but also across the Muslim world. What was essentially a domestic French political debate has morphed into a global debate on relations between state and religion, liberalism and secularism, and the West and Islam/Muslim-majority countries. The intensifying controversy in France comes amid growing populist calls for limiting migration, especially from Muslim countries, and ongoing government initiatives that would deepen the securitization of Islam in the country. President Macron’s rhetoric has dovetailed with France’s foreign policy toward the Middle East’s ideological and geopolitical cleavages, ensuring the amplification of reactions abroad. While the public reaction in the Middle East has been largely uniform, official reactions have exposed existing divisions and conflicts on regional affairs.
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar on France’s evolving policy on the public and political manifestations of Islam. Among other topics, the webinar will address the following questions: What are the domestic and foreign policy drivers of France’s new policy on Islam and Islamism? How is this policy shaping identity debates on Islam and Muslims in the West? What does this policy tell us about populism, nativism, and multiculturalism in France in particular and the West in general? And what will be the geopolitical implications of this new policy in the Middle East and the Muslim world?
Speakers:
Galip Dalay, moderator: Nonresident Fellow – Brookings Doha CenterRichard von Weizsäcker Fellow, Robert Bosch Academy
François Burgat: Senior Research Fellow – French National Centre for Scientific Research
Jocelyne Cesari: Visiting Professor of Religion, Violence, and Peacebuilding – Harvard Divinity School
Rim-Sarah Alouane: Ph.D candidate in Comparative Law – Université Toulouse
2. Taking Stock: Five Years of Russia’s Intervention in Syria | November 30, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in October 2015 changed the course of the civil war, saving the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Five years on, al-Assad is still in power and the country remains unstable. Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria and the United States’ withdrawal of troops in late 2019 have redesigned the geography of the conflict, while the EU has been largely absent from the diplomatic efforts to halt the war.
Speakers:
Marc Pierini: visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
Jomana Qaddour: nonresident senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Program of the Atlantic Council, where she leads the Syria portfolio.
Dmitri Trenin: director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.
Frances Z. Brown: senior fellow with Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
3. Contested Waters: Flashpoints for Conflict in Asia | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over 40 hostile or militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II.
Join USIP for a virtual discussion on the future of water conflict and water diplomacy. Environmental peacebuilding experts and activists from Burma, India, and Pakistan will discuss the strategies they use to mitigate water conflict risks in their countries, as well as examine insights from a new USIP report, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies,” that may help develop early warning indicators for emerging water-based conflicts.
Speakers:
Tegan Blaine: Senior Advisor on Environment and Conflict, U.S. Institute of Peace
David Michel: Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Author, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies”
Abdul Aijaz: Doctoral Candidate, Indiana University Bloomington
Amit Ranjan: Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
Z Nang Raw: Director of Policy and Strategy, Nyein Foundation
Jumaina Siddiqui, moderator: Senior Program Officer for South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. U.S.-China Relations Under Biden: A Look Ahead | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While the recent election of Joe Biden likely signals a raft of domestic political changes, its impact on U.S.-China relations remains unclear. The Trump administration has remolded the relationship, which is now defined by confrontations over economic practices, emerging technologies, and security. There is also growing bipartisan support for pursuing a tougher approach to China, and the Justice, State, and Defense departments are increasingly prioritizing new initiatives to push back on Beijing. Will Biden maintain the confrontational tone and policies of his predecessor? Or will he devise an entirely different posture toward Beijing? The answers to these questions will not only have critical consequences for the two countries in question, but for the broader international community as well.
One month after the U.S. election, Paul Haenle will moderate a discussion with American and Chinese experts on how the Biden administration will approach China, as well as how Beijing is gearing up for the new U.S. president.
Speakers:
Paul Haenle: Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China
Evan A. Feigenbaum: Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Xie Tao: Professor of Political Science and Dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University
5. Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World | December 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
With rapid technological change, shifting global demographics, and tectonic geopolitical shifts, the world faces an inflection point—where the choices that leaders make in the coming years will have profound implications for generations. In response to this moment, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz has organized a project at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution called Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging World to explore what these shifts mean for global democracy, economies, and security.
Join USIP and Stanford’s Hoover Institution for a timely conversation on the project’s findings and its implications for U.S. and international policy. The panel discussion will evaluate the major demographic, technological, and economic trends that are creating tectonic shifts in our geopolitical landscape and forcing a strategic rethink of governance strategies in the 21st century. In light of the challenges identified, panelists will also consider how the United States and others can harness these changes to usher in greater security and prosperity.
Agenda
2:00pm – 2:20pm | A Conversation with Secretary George P. Shultz
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Secretary George P. Shultz: Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
2:20pm – 3:20pm | Panel Discussion: Governance Strategies for the Emerging New World
Dr. Chester A. Crocker, moderator: James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University
Dr. Lucy Shapiro: Virginia and D. K. Ludwig Professor of Developmental Biology, Stanford University
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. James P. Timbie: Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Dr. Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo: President, El Colegio de México
3:20pm – 3:30pm | Closing Remarks
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Venezuela’s Assembly Elections | December 3, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On Sunday, December 6, 2020, Venezuela will hold elections to choose members of the National Assembly for five-year terms. Since 2015, Venezuela’s political opposition has held a majority in the Assembly, the body from which Juan Guaidó emerged as interim President in January 2019.
This December’s Assembly elections take place against a backdrop of acute restrictions on political freedoms under the regime of Nicolás Maduro. For example, to limit and undermine the National Assembly’s authority, the regime convened elections in 2017 for a parallel Constituent Assembly, elections condemned by over 40 countries in Latin America and around the world. In recent years, leading opposition figures have been summarily prohibited from offering their candidacy, and in 2020, the Venezuelan Supreme Court arbitrarily removed the leadership of opposition parties, substituting others appointed by the government.
Amidst these growing restrictions on democratic space, the opposition has decided not to participate in the December 6 elections, a decision supported by scores of countries who have recognized the interim presidency of Juan Guaidó.
What, then, do these elections mean for the political future of Venezuela? What future strategies are available to the opposition? Will citizens, exhausted by chronic shortages of basic goods and in the midst of a raging pandemic, show up to vote? What will a new Assembly mean for the political future of Juan Guaidó?
Speakers:
Michael Penfold: Abraham F. Lowenthal Public Policy Fellow; Professor of Political Science, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) Business and Public Policy School, Venezuela
Margarita Lopez Maya: Professor, Center for Development Studies (CENDES), Universidad Central de Venezuela
Beatriz Borges: Director, Center for Justice and Peace (CEPAZ)
Phil Gunson: Senior Analyst, Andes, International Crisis Group
Cynthia J. Arnson, moderator: Director, Latin American Program
7. What Challenges will the UN Pose for the Joe Biden Administration? | December 3, 2020 | 3:30 – 5:00 pM ET | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The incoming administration will confront a United Nations that increasingly serves as a theater for great-power competition, rather than the forum for global peace and understanding that its founders hoped to achieve. In addition, some of the greatest violators of human rights are on the UN’s Human Rights Council, while the World Health Organization stands accused of hampering the international COVID-19 response due to political pressures.
Please join AEI for an in-depth discussion on the key challenges the UN faces in an era of competition among the US, China, and Russia and how the Biden administration can strengthen the UN-US relationship.
Speakers:
Ivana Stradner, opening remarks: Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow, AEI
Sam Daws: Director, Project on UN Governance and Reform, University of Oxford
Hillel Neuer: Executive Director, UN Watch
Stewart M. Patrick: Director, International Institutions and Global Governance Program, Council on Foreign Relations
Danielle Pletka: Senior Fellow, AEI
John Yoo: Visiting Scholar, AEI
Kori Schake, moderator: Director, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
8. Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics and Changing Role in the World | December 4, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
For the last two decades, discussions on Pakistan have centered around the U.S. war in Afghanistan and on Pakistan’s struggle with extremism, while its rich history, complex internal dynamics, and the aspirations of its citizens were largely excluded from the narrative. Nearly 20 years after 9/11, it is time for the United States to reexamine its relationship with, and understanding of, this complicated country.
On December 4, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a panel discussion taking a multifaceted look at this nation of 220 million people. The event will include a discussion on domestic issues, ranging from the human and women’s rights situation to Islamist politics and ethnic and religious insurgencies within the country. In addition, the conversation will focus on the implications of a Biden presidency for Pakistan, as well as the country’s changing role in the Greater Middle East and South Asia.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and TechnologyDirector – The Intelligence Project
Declan Walsh: Cairo Bureau Chief – New York Times
9. The U.S.-India Partnership: Looking Forward | December 4, 2020 | 8:30 – 9:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
The growth of the U.S.-India strategic partnership has been a significant achievement both in Washington and in New Delhi over the last two decades. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Laura Stone and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Reed Werner will review recent successes and identify future goals for the relationship. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
Speakers:
Laura Stone: deputy assistant secretary of state for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan.
Reed Werner: deputy assistant secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia.
Ashley J. Tellis: Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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