Tag: Syria

Next week’s peace picks

I am speaking tomorrow about the evolution of democracy in the Balkans (2 pm) at the AID Democracy and Governance conference at George Washington University, but I am not sure that really ranks among the week’s peace picks.  Here is a still immodest list of the week’s best, which includes two other events at which I’ll be participating:

1. Syria Under Growing International Pressure

A CENTER ON THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE AND SABAN CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY EVENT

Turkey, the Arab League, the United Nations and the European Union (EU) have escalated pressure on Damascus in an effort to isolate and punish the Syrian regime for its continuing repression of protesters. With the death toll now exceeding 4,000 civilians, Turkey and the Arab League recently joined the U.S. and the EU in imposing wide-ranging sanctions against Syria—a coordinated, international move considered inconceivable just six months ago.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011
3:00 PM to 4:30 PM

Saul/Zilkha Rooms
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Contact: Brookings Office of Communications

Email: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

RELATED CONTENT

More Related Content »

On December 13, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings and the Middle East Institute will host a discussion to examine the impact of growing international pressure on the Assad government and analyze the domestic and regional implications of a weakening Syrian regime and economy. Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Ömer Taşpinar, Murhaf Jouejati of the National Defense University, and Andrew Tabler of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy will join the discussion. Kate Seelye of the Middle East Institute will provide introductory remarks, and Brookings Senior Fellow Michael Doran will moderate the discussion.After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.Participants

Introduction

Kate Seelye

Vice President
The Middle East Institute

Moderator

Michael Doran

Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Panelists

Murhaf Jouejati

Professor of Middle East Studies
National Defense University

Andrew J. Tabler

Next Generation Fellow
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Ömer Taşpınar

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe

2. Kosovo’s President: What does She Represent?

A discussion with

Her Excellency Atifete Jahjaga


Her Excellency

Atifete Jahjaga

President of Kosovo

Moderated by

Daniel Serwer,

Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations

Visiting Scholar, Conflict Management Program , SAIS

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

10:00 am – 11:30 am

Kenney Auditorium

The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20036

Co-sponsored by the Center for Transaltantic Relations and

Conflict Management Program, SAIS

3.  Incomplete Security Sector Reform in Serbia:  Lessons for Democratic Transition

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

 2:00– 3:30 pm

Room 500

1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20036

 with

Jelena Milić

Director, Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies,

Belgrade, Serbia

 Comments by

Daniel Serwer
Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations

 Vedran Džihić

Moderator
Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations

Jelena Milić, director of the Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies, will give an insight into the problems of the security reform in Serbia since the time of the Milosevic regime and democratic changes in 2000 until today. She will discuss the importance of transitional justice for security sector reforms as well as the consequences of current gaps and problems in the reform for Serbia. As the security sector reform is critical for the successs of all post-conflict and democratization efforts the event will outline possible “lessons learned” for democratic transition of regions like North Africa. Finally, Jelena Milić will elaborate on the implications of the recent European Council’s decision on Serbian EU-candidacy bid.

4. Proactive Deterrence: The Challenge of Escalation Control on the Korean Peninsula

Date & Time:
Fri, 12/16/2011 – 12:00pm – 1:30pm
Proactive Deterrence: The Challenge of Escalation Control on the Korean Peninsula
Location:
Korea Economic Institute

1800 K Street NW Suite 1010

Washington, DC 20008

Speakers:
Abraham Denmark, Senior Advisor, CNA
Moderator: Nicholas Hamisevicz, Director of Research and Academic Affairs, KEI
Description:

After the attacks last year by North Korea on the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island, the difficult debates continue over the best way South Korea should respond to these types of strikes by North Korea and on ways to deter them in the future. Fears arise that miscalculating the response to North Korean aggression could quickly escalate into war.

And even though South Korea and the U.S., along with other allies, would likely be able to defend South Korea and eventually reunify the Korean peninsula through force, the outbreak of war will likely have huge human, economic, and developmental costs for South Korea. Thus, proper deterrence mechanisms and response procedures are needed.

Please join KEI for a luncheon discussion with Abraham Denmark, Senior Advisor, CNA. Mr. Denmark will discuss his Academic Paper Series report on some of the issues involved with preemptive self-defense and proactive deterrence by South Korea.  He will also present some possible policies for South Korea and the United States that could mitigate the potential for accidental escalation while sustaining deterrence over North Korea. We hope you will join us for this interesting event.

A light meal will be served.

To RSVP for this event, please click here.

5. Combating Botnets: Strengthening Cybersecurity Through Stakeholder Coordination

Millions of American computers have been compromised and are remotely controlled for a variety of malicious purposes in botnets, enabling online crime and aggression. In September, the Departments of Commerce and Homeland Security issued a Request for Information to explore developing a voluntary industry code of conduct to respond to botnets. Internet Service Providers (ISPs), security firms, advocacy groups and citizens submitted comments on how these networks can be detected, how ISPs can notify customers whose computers are affected and how to improve cybersecurity with the appropriate distribution of responsibilities.

Friday, December 16, 2011
1:30 PM to 3:30 PM

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Contact: Brookings Office of Communications

Email: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Register Now
On December 16, the Center for Technology Innovation at Brookings will host a discussion examining how government agencies, private firms and citizens can work together to combat the cybersecurity risks associated with botnets. Representatives of the Department of Commerce and the Department of Homeland Security will present their conclusions from the Request for Information on the industry’s options for moving forward. In addition, a panel of experts will explore the need for stakeholder cooperation and coordination in fighting botnets, how to engage citizens in strengthening cybersecurity, and the challenges of measuring progress. The discussion will highlight the importance of well-crafted public-private partnerships and careful governance in addressing cybersecurity risks.After the program, speakers will take audience questions.
Participants

Introduction and Moderator

Allan A. Friedman

Fellow, Governance Studies

Presenters

Bruce McConnell

Counselor to the National Protection and Programs Directorate Deputy Under Secretary
U.S. Department Of Homeland Security

Ari Schwartz

Senior Advisor to the Secretary on Technology Policy and Member of the Internet Policy Task Force
U.S. Department of Commerce

Panelists

Jamie Barnett

Chief of the Commission’s Public Safety and Homeland Security Bureau
Federal Communications Commission

Sameer Bhalotra

Deputy Cybersecurity Coordinator, National Security Staff
The White House

Yurie Ito

Director, Global Coordination
JP CERT

Michael Kaiser

Executive Director
National Cyber Security Alliance

Brent Rowe

Senior Economist

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Delusional, deluded or deluding?

The full transcript of the Barbara Walters interview with Bashar al Assad is worth a read, if only because it will likely one day be seen a presaging the fall of the Assad regime, like Qaddafi’s mad rants in Libya.  Bashar’s denial is total:

OK, we don’t kill our people, nobody kill. No government in the world kill its people, unless it’s led by crazy person. For me, as president, I became president because of the public support. It’s impossible for anyone, in this state, to give order to kill people.

Mistakes may have been made, but they are not his or the government’s. Individuals have made mistakes are being held accountable. He feels no guilt. The press is free. Foreign correspondents are welcome. There was no order for a crackdown, just the legitimate institutions of the state defending themselves from terrorists, as any state would have to do.

The terrifying part of all of this is that he gives the distinct impression of believing it. That would be delusional. It is difficult to imagine how someone so out of touch with reality can be convinced to stop the brutality.

In theory it is also possible that he is deluded: maybe his younger brother Maher, responsible for the security forces, doesn’t bother telling him what is happening?  Certainly if he watches too much Syrian TV, he wouldn’t know that the protests are mainly peaceful and the security forces ferociously violent. He could then believe that there really are terrorists inciting this instability and attacking the Syrian state.

That would be truly deluded, but there is still another possibility: he is attempting to delude. Not so much the Western public, which by now knows better, but his own people, who will be treated to this interview repeatedly. Listen to Deborah Amos on the PBS Newshour Tuesday evening:

Watch Syria’s Assad Denies Ordering Deadly Crackdown as Sanctions Drive Down Currency on PBS. See more from PBS NEWSHOUR.

This fits with what Bashar says about his strategy in the interview:

…the majority of the Syrian people are in the middle and then you have people who support you and you have people who are against you. So the majority always in the middle. Those majority are not against you. If they are against you you cannot have stable most of the city…

Walters: You feel the majority of the people in this country support you?

Assad: I say the majority are in the middle and the majority are not against — to be precise.

He is trying to win over the majority, who are caught in the middle between the state and the terrorists.

I lean towards this last interpretation.  Bashar al Assad is not a rocket scientist (only a physician), but he is more than smart enough to know what is going on and rational enough to stop it if he did not think it was in his interest. His focus is where it should be: winning the hearts and minds of the majority that is not yet against him, or at least keeping them neutral.

This understanding should inform the strategy of the opposition and the international community. Actions that turn this majority in Bashar al Assad’s direction (violence, sanctions that target vital commodities, rhetoric that suggests NATO is coming to the rescue) should be avoided. Actions that win over the substantial Syrian middle and lower classes (providing humanitarian assistance, international monitoring of the sort the UN has already undertaken or the Arab League has proposed, sanctioning non-vital trade and investment, denouncing regime violence, nonviolent boycotts, strikes and demonstrations) are the way to go.

Bashar is trying to outlast his opponents; they need to prepare for the long haul, even if we all hope this will end soon.

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This is not easy

American Ambassador Robert Ford is returning to Damascus, where violence continues.  Security forces and pro-regime militias killed dozens yesterday while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was meeting with opposition Syrian National Council members in Geneva.  It is not clear how many the defector-manned Free Syrian Army has killed, but the SNC is claiming its armed partners will only defend Syrians and not undertake offensive operations.

There is no sign of the Arab League observers Bashar al Assad claims to have agreed could be deployed.  Syria is now saying that sanctions have to end before observers can be deployed.  I guess Damascus forgot to mention that earlier.

What is to be done?  More of the same I am afraid.  There is no quick solution.  Even if Bashar were to exit suddenly, there would still be a regime in place fighting for its life with the resources Iran provides.  The effort now has to focus on tightening sanctions, especially those imposed by the European Union and the Arab League as well as Turkey.  It is important also to continue to work on the Russians, who have so far blocked any UN Security Council resolution.

Burhan Ghalioun, who leads the SNC, goes over all these issues and more in his Wall Street Journal interview last week.  Unfortunately, it attracted attention mainly for what he had to say about Syria being able to recover the Golan Heights and breaking its military alliance with Iran.  Much more interesting were his commitment to nonviolence, to a “civil” state, to countering sectarianism, to Arab solidarity and to building a serious democracy with rule of law.  The outlines of an SNC program are starting to emerge, including a desire for an orderly transition, maintenance of state institutions and elections within a year.  But I found it hard to credit his dismissal of the Muslim Brotherhood.  It has long played an important underground role in Syria and is likely to persist as an important political force in the post-Assad period.

The Americans seem to me still focused on hastening Bashar’s removal.  That is certainly a worthy goal, but it may not happen.  We also need to be worrying about sustaining the nonviolent opposition, which is under enormous pressure every day.  Ambassador Ford’s return may give them a boost, but he is unlikely to be able to do much to help them or to communicate effectively with the regime, whose listening skills are minimal.

Getting the observers in would be one important step, but it is unclear to me whether they really exist.  If Bashar did agree to them, could the Arab League deploy them within a reasonable time frame?  Who are they?  How many?  How have they been trained?  What rules of behavior will they follow?  How will they report?

Bluff is not going to win this game.  Enforcing sanctions, persuading the Russians to go along with a Security Council resolution, deploying Arab League observers, sustaining the protesters, keeping an exit door open for Bashar:  none of it is easy, but together these things may begin slowly to turn the tide.

Here is Bashar al Assad with Barbara Walters:  he asks for evidence of brutality, denies that he has given orders for a crackdown and suggests the UN is not credible. He likely also thinks the sun revolves around the earth:

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Next week’s “peace picks”

1. Looking to the Future of Pakistan

With each passing day, Pakistan becomes an even more crucial player in world affairs. Home of the world’s second largest Muslim population, epicenter of the global jihad, location of perhaps the planet’s most dangerous borderlands, and armed with nuclear weapons, this South Asian nation will go a long way toward determining what the world looks like ten years from now.

Event Information

When

Monday, December 05, 2011
2:00 PM to 4:00 PM

Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Email: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Register Now

RELATED CONTENT

Save to My PortfolioOut of the Nuclear Loop

Stephen P. Cohen
The New York Times
February 16, 2004

Save to My PortfolioArmageddon in Islamabad

Bruce Riedel
The National Interest
July/August 2009

Save to My PortfolioThe Pakistan Time Bomb

Stephen P. Cohen
The Washington Post
July 3, 2007

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On December 5, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host the launch of The Future of Pakistan(Brookings Institution Press, 2011), which evaluates several scenarios for how the country will develop and evolve in the near future. A team of 17 experts from Pakistan, the United States, Europe and India, led by Brookings Senior Fellow Stephen P. Cohen, contributed chapters to the book, looking at pieces of the Pakistan puzzle. Several of the authors will join other Pakistan experts on two panels to examine the issues, relevant actors and their motivations, different outcomes they might produce, and what it all means for Pakistanis, Indians, the United States, and the entire world.After each panel, participants will take audience questions
Participants

2:00 PM — Opening Remarks

Stephen P. Cohen

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative

2:10 PM — Panel 1 – Paradoxical Pakistan

Moderator: Teresita C. Schaffer

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative

C. Christine Fair

Assistant Professor
Georgetown University

William Milam

Senior Scholar
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Shuja Nawaz

Director, South Asia Center
The Atlantic Council

Moeed Yusuf

South Asia Adviser
U.S. Institute of Peace

3:10 PM — Panel 2 – Pakistan: Where To?

Moderator: John R. Schmidt

Professorial Lecturer
The George Washington University

Pamela Constable

Staff Writer
The Washington Post

Bruce Riedel

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Marvin Weinbaum

Scholar-in-Residence
Middle East Institute

Joshua T. White

Ph.D. Candidate
Johns Hopkins University, SAIS

2. Which Way Forward for Egypt?

Wednesday, December 7, 2011 – 12:15pm – 1:45pm

New America Foundation

1899 L Street NW Suite 400

Washington, DC 20036

Egypt’s first parliamentary elections since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak began on November 28th. The vote for the People’s Assembly will stretch over six weeks into January 2012.

An outpouring of enthusiastic voters has for the moment raised a note of optimism in Egypt. Yet following days of mass protest over the military’s continued rule, state violence, and deepening political and social polarization, it appears that Egypt’s transition will be long and rocky.

Join us for a conversation co-hosted by the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association about the election’s impact, transitional prospects, and implications for the wider MENA region and U.S. foreign policy.

A light lunch will be served.

Participants

Featured Speakers
Randa Fahmy
Vice President, Egyptian American Rule of Law Association

Nathan Brown
Professor, Political Science & International Affairs, George Washington University
Nonresident Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Michael Wahid Hanna
Fellow, The Century Foundation (will have just returned from Egypt)

Moderator
Leila Hilal
Co-Director, Middle East Task Force
New America Foundation

3. Islamist Terrorism and Democracy in the Middle East

A Book Launch for a USIP-funded study by Katerina Dalacoura

Wednesday, December 7 from 3:00-4:30

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Choate Room
1779 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest
Washington, DC 20036

The putative relationship between political repression and terrorism remains a matter of active debate in scholarly and policymaking circles.  Based on investigations into individual Islamist movements and the political environments in which they operate, this study assesses whether the emergence of Islamist terrorism is linked to the absence of political participation and repression.

The U.S. Institute of Peace is pleased to sponsor an in-depth discussion with Dalacoura centered on her recently-published work.

Funded by a grant from USIP, the volume draws on a series of case studies that include al Qa’eda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Groupe Islamique Armé, Gamaa Islamiyya, the Jordanian and Egyptian Muslim Brotherhoods, the Tunisian Nahda Movement, the Turkish Justice and Development Party, and Iranian Islamist movements.

“Drawing on her deep knowledge of Middle East politics, Dalacoura powerfully challenges past assumptions about a simple link between democratic deficits and the spread of Islamist terrorism,” said Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Conceptually rigorous, empirically rich, incisive and searching, this is a major study.”

Speakers

  • Daniel Brumberg, Chair
    U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Katerina Dalacoura, Author
    London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Dafna Rand
    Department of State
  • Eric Goldstein
    Human Rights Watch

4.  The Arab Spring:  Implications for US Policy and Interests

A publication launch and discussion featuring

Middle East Institute scholars:

Allen Keiswetter

Principal Coordinator and Author
with

Charles Dunne
Amb. Art Hughes

Amb. Molly Williamson

Thursday, December 8, 2011

12:00pm-1:30pm

SEIU Building, Room 2600

2nd Floor

1800 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036

*Please note that this event is not being held at MEI. An ID is required for entrance into the building.*

The Middle East Institute is proud to present its first ever policy paper produced exclusively by MEI scholars.  Entitled “The Arab Spring: Implications for US Policy and Interests,” it draws upon the broad expertise of 25 Middle East Institute scholars to examine the impact of this year’s popular uprisings in the Arab world on a variety of sectors and issues, including oil and energy, Iran, the peace process, and democratization and reform.  The paper is based on a series of roundtable discussions amongst MEI scholars in response to the historic and unprecedented changes taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and beyond, and offers and offers insights and recommendations for US policymakers recalibrating America’s approach to the Middle East.  Please join us for the launch of this MEI featured publication and a discussion with principal coordinator and author Allen Keiswetter and contributors Amb. Molly Williamson, Amb. Art Hughes, and Charles Dunne.  You can read the full paper in advance of the event here.

TO RSVP for this event, please click here.
5.  Getting Rights…Right: How Companies are Implementing the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights

Thursday, December 8, 2011
9:00 AM – 4:30 PM

Grand Ballroom, 3rd Floor
Marvin Center, 800 21st Street, NW

To mark International Human Rights Day 2011, George Washington University, the UN Global Compact US Network, and the US Institute of Peace will host a one day conference on the Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. These principles, approved by the UN Human Rights Council in June, are designed to help business monitor its human rights impact. These guidelines clarified both the human rights responsibilities of states and firms and made them clear and actionable. Our speakers, representing business, civil society, the US Government, and academia, will focus on practical approaches to implementing the Guiding Principles (the GPs).

9:00-9:10 – Welcoming Remarks
Stephen C. Smith, Professor of Economics and International Affairs; Director, Institute for International Economic Policy, GW

Dave Berdish, Manager of Sustainable Business Development, Ford Motor Company

9:10-9:45 – “Why Firms Should Advance Human Rights: Manpower’s Approach”
David Arkless, President, Corporate and Government Affairs, ManpowerGroup

9:45-11:15 – Panel 1 – “Addressing the Problems of Slavery and Human Trafficking”
Brenda Schultz, Manager of Responsible Business, Carlson Hotels Worldwide Samir Goswami, Director of Corporate Responsibility, Rule of Law, Lexis Nexis

Jean Baderscheider, Vice President, Global Procurement, Exxon Mobil

Indika Samarawickreme, Executive Director, Free the Slaves

Moderator:
Pamela Passman, President and CEO, CREATe

11:15-11:30 – Coffee Break

11:30-1:00 – Panel 2 – “How Business Should Operate in Conflict Zones”
Bennett Freeman, Senior Vice President for Social research and Policy, Calvert Group

Charlotte Wolff, Corporate Responsibility Manager, Arcellor Mittal

Olav Ljosne, Regional Director of Communications, Africa, Shell Corporation

Moderator:
Raymond Gilpin, Director, Center for Sustainable Economies, U.S. Institute of Peace

1:00-2:15 – Luncheon Keynote
Ursula Wynhoven, General Counsel, UN Global Compact

Gerald Pachoud, Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary General, UN and former Senior Advisor, Special Representative on Business and Human Rights

2:15-3:45 – Panel 3: General Implementation of the Guiding Principles Is it difficult to get buy in? Is it costly? What recommendations or roadblocks have you found?
Mark Nordstrom, Senior Labor & Employment Counsel, General Electric

Dave Berdish, Manager of Sustainable Business

Brenda Erskine, Director of Stakeholder and Community Relationships, Suncor

Meg Roggensack, Senior Advisor for Business and Human Rights, Human Rights First

Moderator:
Susan Aaronson, Associate Research Professor of International Affairs, GW

3:45-4:30 – General Discussion: What should policymakers do to encourage adoption of the GPs?

RSVP at: http://tiny.cc/guidingprinciples

Sponsored by Institute for International Economic Policy, U.S. Institute for Peace, U.N. Global Compact, and the U.S. Network

6.  The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban

Start: Friday, December 9, 2011 4:30 PM
End:   Friday, December 9, 2011 6:00
You are cordially invited to a book lecture with author Daniel R. Green for his new book
The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban Friday, December 9
4:30 PMThe Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036
Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.This event is sponsored by IWP’s Center for Culture and Security.

About the author

Daniel R. Green is a Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is pursuing a PhD in political science at the George Washington University. For his work in Afghanistan in 2005-2006, he received the U.S. Department of State’s Superior Honor Award, the U.S. Army’s Superior Civilian Honor Award, and a personal letter of commendation from then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace. He has also received the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Exceptional Public Service Award and in 2007 served with the U.S. military in Fallujah, Iraq. He lives in Washington, D.C.

About the book

In this gripping, firsthand account, Daniel Green tells the story of U.S. efforts to oust the Taliban insurgency from the desolate southern Afghan province of Uruzgan. Nestled between the Hindu Kush mountains and the sprawling wasteland of the Margow and Khash Deserts, Uruzgan is a microcosm of U.S. efforts to prevent Afghanistan from falling to the Taliban insurgency and Islamic radicalism.

Green, who served in Uruzgan from 2005 to 2006 as a U.S. Department of State political adviser to a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), reveals how unrealistic expectations, a superficial understanding of the Afghans, and a lack of resources contributed to the Taliban’s resurgence in the area. He discusses the PRT’s good-governance efforts, its reconstruction and development projects, the violence of the insurgency, and the PRT’s attempts to manage its complex relationship with the local warlord cum governor of the province.

Upon returning to Afghanistan in 2009 with the U.S. military and while working at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul until 2010, Green discovered that although many improvements had been made since he had last served in the country, the problems he had experienced in Uruzgan continued despite the transition from the Bush administration to the Obama administration.

 

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Getting ready for post-Assad Syria

While my enthusiasm for nonviolent revolution in Syria has not waned, some of the best pieces of the past week have focused on the risks involved.

International Crisis Group (ICG) weighed in with an analysis of where things might go wrong:

  • the fate of the Alawite community;
  • the connection between Syria and Lebanon;
  • the nature and implications of heightened international
    involvement;
  • the long-term impact of the protest movement’s growing
    militarisation; and
  • the legacy of creeping social, economic and institutional
    decay.

Patrick Seale offered a more generic warning of civil war and a far-fetched (or is it imaginative?) proposal for BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) mediation to avoid it (with thanks to Carne Ross for tweeting it).

Meanwhile, back at the Arab League they imposed in principle serious sanctions on Syria, including a ban on transactions with its central bank as well as travel by regime big shots and a halt to Arab development projects in Syria.  As usual, some of the important stuff is not mentioned.  Commercial air transportation with Syria will continue, assets in the Gulf have not been frozen, and neighbors Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan have not committed to complying with the sanctions, which will probably be implemented slowly and incompletely.  Even if all were willing, the regime would find ways of taking advantage of sanctions to enrich its least savory characters.

One other thing is also certain:  the longer it takes to get rid of Assad, the more difficult the transition to a democratic regime will be.  No one can pretend that the Syrian National Council (SNC) is yet ready to govern, even if Libya and France have recognized it (the latter as a partner for dialogue and not a government).  It needs to hasten its preparations, which so far seem rudimentary.  The SNC (and other elements of the opposition?) will reportedly meet in Cairo within a week to elaborate its vision and plans for the transition.  The Syrians could do worse than take that ICG list of issues and work on serious plans to resolve them.

PS:  The UN Human Rights Commission “Report of the independent international commission of inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic,” published this morning, makes grim reading. Here are a couple of randomly chosen paragraphs:

48. Several defectors witnessed the killing of their comrades who refused to execute orders to fire at civilians. A number of conscripts were allegedly killed by security forces on 25 April in Dar’a during a large-scale military operation. The soldiers in the first row were given orders to aim directly at residential areas, but chose to fire in the air to avoid civilian casualties. Security forces posted behind shot them for refusing orders, thus killing dozens of conscripts.
49. Civilians bore the brunt of the violence as cities were blockaded and curfews imposed. The commission heard many testimonies describing how those who ventured outside their homes were shot by snipers. Many of the reported cases occurred in Dar’a, Jisr Al Shughour and Homs. A lawyer told how security forces took positions in old Dar’a during the operation in April. Snipers were deployed on the hospital rooftop and other buildings. “They targeted anyone who moved”, he said. Two of his cousins were killed on the street by snipers.

 

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All the action is not in the streets

The streets are dangerous in  both Egypt and Syria.

In Egypt, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has named a new civilian prime minister and intends to proceed with the first round of parliamentary elections next Tuesday.  While there is talk of boycotting among secularists, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists intend to participate.  As the violence of the last week ebbs, Tahrir square has been filling, but odds are that SCAF will have its way and elections will proceed.  It is starting to look as if the secularists will be the big losers.  Might they have done better to devote more time and energy to organizing their voters and less to occupying Tahrir?

The Arab League has issued an ultimatum to Damascus demanding admission of international observers.  Failure to do so will supposedly lead to vigorous travel, trade, investment and other sanctions.  The Bashar al Assad regime seems determined to continue its crackdown, which is still killing dozens of demonstrators every day, principally in Homs yesterday.  The Arab League, not known for taking decisive action, needs to be ready to make good on its bluff.

Military action in Syria, despite French blague, still seems to me not just far off but nigh on impossible.  Moscow is still blocking action in the UN Security Council, the Arab League is not asking for it, the Americans don’t want to think about it, and the Europeans are not going to do it on their own.  The best bet for the Syrians is still nonviolent protest, though it may be better to focus on boycotts, general strikes and work stoppages rather than putting large numbers of people in the now very dangerous streets.

Revolution is an emotional business.  Often the headiest experiences are in mass rallies.  But there are other ways to protest, and the ballot box should not be ignored.  All the action is not in the streets.

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