Tag: Syria
Stevenson’s army, November 1
– WaPo says House GOP Israel bill will add $90 billion to the debt over 10 years.
– Yale prof warns against bombing Mexico
– Consistent with War Powers law and past precedent, Biden informed Congress of the recent US attacks in Iraq and Syria.
– I’ve often told the story that LBJ asked a prospective White House counsel if he was “a Yes lawyer or a No lawyer.” NYT says Trump would want only Yes lawyers in a new administration.
– SecState Blinken expects a “revitalized Palestinian Authority” will rule postwar Gaza.
Trade-offs [from D Brief]
Chinese-drone ban gains pace: Later today, bipartisan members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party plan to introduce the American Security Drone Act of 2023, the latest attempt to stop the U.S. government from buying drones built in China and other countries labeled as national security threats. It follows several failed attempts to extend the current ban on DOD purchases of Chinese drones to the rest of the government, including a companion to a Senate bill that was re-introduced in February after failing to pass in 2021.
Here’s a case for such a ban, from former INDOPACOM ops director Mark Montgomery, now with FDD. Essentially, he argues at D1, Chinese-made drones could spy on U.S. citizens and infrastructure.
Here’s a case against it, from drone expert Faine Greenwood, writing at Foreign Policy. The FP piece is paywalled, but she limns it here: “There’s one big, fat problem: there is no non-Chinese consumer drone company that does what DJI does. Much less does it at such a low price-point, which is a vital consideration for the vast swaths of modern drone users who don’t have unlimited cash to throw around. And building a DJI-killer is a lot harder than you might assume: although a number of Western competitors tried to knock DJI off the pedestal over the last decade, they all failed…Eventually, they largely stopped trying. This is also why both Ukrainians and Russians are continuing to chew through vast quantities of DJI drones on the battlefield, despite massive misgivings about their reliance on Chinese tech.”
DOD’s current bans: The Pentagon stopped buying drones from China’s DJI in 2017, and most off-the-shelf drones in 2018; that same year, Congress generally but not totally forbade the military to buy any Chinese-made drones.
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A difficult choice and an easy one
The questions of a “humanitarian pause” and an Israeli invasion of Gaza are often discussed separately. They are related.
No invasion means more bombing
We have to assume that Israel will not let Hamas off the hook. At a minimum, Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’ military capability. That can only be done by military means. If you want to see a “humanitarian pause,” the bombing will stop, but that increases from the Israeli perspective the need to go into Gaza to hunt Hamasniks. If you want Israel to stay out of Gaza, the bombing will have to continue and even intensify.
My own preference would be for the Israelis to stay out of Gaza. Urban warfare is difficult and deadly even without an extensive network of tunnels. Once in, the Israelis will likely find they will need to stay, unless they are prepared to see something like Hamas (or worse) return. The invasion, plus an occupation of a decade or more, will kill a lot more Israelis and Palestinians than the bombing.
An Israeli invasion of Gaza is also likely to trigger a wider regional war. Hizbollah in Lebanon, various Iranian proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are capable of launching thousands of missiles at Israel. If the Israelis can’t handle that, they will turn to the United States to help out. Intense American attacks on Iranian proxies could trigger war with Iran. That scenario is a nightmare to be avoided, even if some hawks in the US might welcome it.
Of course there is an option for no bombing and no invasion. But that won’t satisfy popular opinion inside Israel. Nor would it help Prime Minister Netanyahu stay in power. He is responsible for the intelligence and preparedness failures that allows Hamas to do what it did. As soon as the military action stops, political accountability will begin. He will try to postpone that day.
Stop the abuse
The easy choice is on the West Bank. There the Israeli army and ultra-religious settlers have been harassing and killing Palestinians with impunity, not only since October 7. That behavior infuriates Palestinians and Arabs everywhere. From Israel’s own perspective, this is counterproductive. It could also be dangerous. The dog that hasn’t barked is Israel’s own Arab Palestinian population.
Here too Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He has been unwilling to reign in the extremists of his own coalition. Nor has the broadening of that coalition with a few opposition politicians compelled him to do so. The Americans are speaking up against Israeli behavior on the West Bank, but so far with little effect. They need to make it stick.
Get ahead of the political curve
At the moment, the Israelis are both intensifying the bombing and entering Gaza at will, without however yet trying to hold territory there. But humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly and clearly require at least a bombing pause. Israel should combine that with a clear statement of restraint in the West Bank and a promise to deal with legitimate Palestinian aspirations once the fighting is over. But of course that would not help Netanyahu, so it is unlikely to happen.
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Arab rebellion in eastern Syria
Former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi writes, prompted by the current Arab rebellion against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rule in Deir ez-Zur:
Insincerity has consequences
The way the current US administration deals with the Arab world is controversial and confusing. On the one hand, senior American officials visit Arab countries and confirm the strategic relationship that binds Washington with these countries as well as the need for Iran to stop its policy aimed at instability in the region. Then they give Iran access to more than 10 billion dollars, knowing that part of it will be used against countries that Washington claims to be its allies.
Washington claims that it supports human rights, democracy, and transparency, and then allows its Kurdish Communist allies (PKK) in Syria to use American weapons to bomb Arab civilians who demand justice and trust American values.
Washington should be aware that American policy and actions are being analyzed, studied, and built upon by all countries and peoples. The result is an irreparable loss in credibility and sincerity.
False claims
In Deir ez-Zur, the SDF is trying to attach three accusations to the movement of the Arab tribes:
- SDF claims the Arabs launched their movement for the sake of a militia leader named Abu Khawla, but the truth is that Abu Khawla is the creation of the SDF. No one rebelled because of him, but rather because of the repressive and corrupt practices of the SDF. The Arab clans are the ones who demanded the dismissal of Abu Khawla when the SDF supported him.
- The SDF claims the region supports ISIS, but in fact the Arab clans fought ISIS before the formation of the anti-ISIS coalition and the emergence of the SDF. ISIS has killed thousands of Arab clansmen. The clans themselves have been at the forefront in the fight against ISIS, including under the leadership of the coalition.
- SDF claims the clans cooperate with the regime and the Iranians, but it is the SDF that deals with the regime and says its relations with Iran are good. The people of Deir ez-Zur liberated the region from the regime and have continued to fight it since mid-2012. It is the Arab youth who fight the Iranian militias. The regime has destroyed large parts of the province in retaliation.
The US needs to act
The US government should intervene to solve the problems in Deir ez-Zur. The continuation of the conflict there is not in the interest of anyone except Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime, which is working to fuel it with all the means available. The silence of the Department of Defense and Centcom’s Operation Inherent Resolve will not help.
Steps required from the US side, to help it return to its mission:
- Change all the leaders of the SDF/PKK in the Deir ez-Zur region, because they are the cause of the problems.
- Call for a general meeting of the representatives of the people of the region, including sheikhs, notables, and intellectuals, to listen to the people’s demands directly. The purpose of the meeting would be to find a new administrative, economic, and military mechanism for Al-Deir that meets the demands of the people without interference from the SDF or its cadres.
- Avoid dealing with Arabs the SDF nominates.
- Investigate whether the SDF has used US weapons in the commission of war crimes in Deir ez-Zur.
The Department of State delegation that visited the area last weekend failed to meet any of the real local representatives. The SDF launched a massive attack in the wake of the meeting, which confirms that the mission failed.
The SDF needs to act too
The SDF cannot continue in its current direction. It needs to
- Release Deir ez-Zur people from 21 SDF detention centers.
- Change its media discourse, which constantly accuses the people of Deir ez-Zur people of being criminals, agents, and smugglers.
- Allow International human rights organizations to enter Deir ez-Zur under the protection of US forces to investigate the war crimes.
Deir ez-Zur is a test for the US
The US is currently trying to negotiate a “mega-deal” with Saudi Arabia and Israel that will have to give something to the Palestinians. But the same US Administration has failed to stop SDF/PKK killing of Arabs in Deir ez-Zur. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should test any US offer by asking the US officials to listen to the Arab demands in northeast Syria. He should want to see if the Americans can deliver before moving one step further.
At the end of the day, the US forces will leave Syria and the Kurds and the Arabs will stay. Helping the two indigenous communities to find common ground will pay dividends to the US in the long term.
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Travel is getting riskier
On the plus side is the release of five Americans. That is good, but what is to prevent Tehran from taking five more hostages? Thousands of Americans visit Iran every year, despite State Department warnings. Many are dual citizens with family there. Tehran isn’t likely to scoop more up right away, but eventually it may return to lucrative hostage-taking. The slippery slope is real.
The US will release some Iranians, so far unidentified, from US prisons. Exchange for them is not a fair deal, as they have all been tried and convicted in a court system that guarantees a lot more rights than the Americans arrested in Iran. But the exchange is understandable and even laudable. If Iran wants a drug dealer or sanctions breaker back, he will only add marginally to the miscreants already there. And the exchange will save the US taxpayer a few dollars.
The problem is the money
$6 billion is a lot of money. The agreement allowing the dollars to go to Iran may require Tehran to use it for humanitarian purposes (food and medicine), but cash is fungible. It is easy enough to shift the money you might have spent on food (but no longer need) to purchase weapons. You can be pretty sure the ultimate beneficiary will be something the United States doesn’t like: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or a drone factory whose main customer is Russia.
The money is not American. It is Iranian, frozen in South Korea at Washington’s behest. It derives from South Korean payments for Iranian oil. So the American taxpayer is not footing the bill, but the cash will relieve Iran of some financial pressure. If that leads to other agreements–in the nuclear talks, for example–it may be worthwhile. But that factor is hard to weigh before it materializes.
It’s not only Iran
Iran is not the only hostage-taker. Russia, China, Venezuela, Syria, and others also indulge. Each will now hope for a billion or so in addition to the prisoner exchange in negotiations on American hostages. We likely have sufficient frozen funds from some of the hostage takers. It will not be good if today’s deal whets hostage-taker appetities.
There is already an International Convention against the Taking of Hostages (New York, 17 December 1979), but it foresees individuals as the perpetrators, not states. It has 176 state parties, including the United States. While it has been argued that Iran’s use of arbitrary detention constitutes hostage taking, holding individuals responsible is unlikely to prove much of a deterrent when it is a state that decides to detain someone. The existing convention is inadequate to deal with a situation where a state is the hostage-taker. Something more is needed.
Easily said, hard to do
What is needed is a policy that will prevent states from resorting to arbitrary detention/hostage taking. Easy to say, but difficult to institute. A convention requiring multilateral sanctions against states that detain foreigners arbitrarily might be an attractive proposition in theory, but in practice it will prove difficult to get agreement on which detentions are arbitrary. And in many instances the miscreant states will already be subjected to extensive sanctions.
In the absence of more effective measures, international travel has already become more hazardous. There are today more countries where I would hesitate to travel due to the threat of arbitrary detention than ever before in my lifetime. This latest agreement is going to make it even more risky. That may be no real loss to the hostage takers, who don’t really want nosy foreigners observing the way they treat their own citizens. But it is definitely a loss for those of us anxious to see and experience the world beyond our own shores.
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Syria is in good company in the Arab League
The Arab League decided yesterday in Cairo to readmit Syria. The League had suspended Syria’s membership in response to its violent crackdown on demonstrators in March 2011. President Assad will presumably attend the May 19 Summit in Riyadh. This comes on top of several bilateral normalization moves, including by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Conditions aren’t likely to be fulfilled
The readmission is supposedly conditional. Though I’ve been unable to find the official statement, press reports suggest the conditions include allowing humanitarian assistance and return of refugees, clamping down on Syria’s burgeoning Captagon drug exports, and the beginnings of a political process called for in UN Security Council resolution 2254.
I’ll be surprised if much of that comes to pass. Assad could and should have done all those things long ago. Preventing humanitarian assistance, blocking return of refugees, financing his regime with drug smuggling, and blocking any transition are all part of his strategy. Readmission to the Arab League is unlikely to change his behavior, which aims at restoration of his personal authority on the entire territory of Syria.
Fighting abates but conflict continues
That is still far off. The mostly Islamist remains of Syria’s opposition control parts of northwestern Syria while Turkish troops control several border areas, where they have pushed hostile Kurdish forces farther east and south. Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control a large part of the east, with support from the U.S. Damascus requires Iranian and Russian support to maintain sometimes minimal control over the west and south. Israel continues to bomb Syria pretty much at will, to move Iranians and their proxies away from its border and to block military supplies to Hizbollah in Lebanon.
None of these conflicts is settled, but fighting has abated from his heights. None of the forces involved has the will and the wherewithal to change the current situation. Assad no doubt hopes that normalization with the Arab world will solve his economic problems and enable him to mount the effort required to regain more territory. He may negotiate to regain territory from Turkey in exchange for promises to clamp down on the Kurds. He’ll wait out the Americans, who aren’t likely to want to remain in Syria much longer.
Autocracy restored
If Assad is successful in restoring his autocracy, he won’t be alone in the Middle East. It is a long time since the Arab Spring of 2011. Tunisia’s fledgling democracy is gone, as is Egypt’s. Bahrain’s democratic movement was snuffed out early. Yemen’s and Libya’s “springs” degenerated into civil war. Sudan is headed in the same direction. Iraq has suffered repeated upheavals, though its American-imposed anocracy has also shown some resilience. Saudi Arabia has undertaken economic and social reforms, but driven entirely by its autocratic Crown Prince. The UAE remains an absolute monarchy.
Only in Morocco and Qatar have a few modest reforms survived in more or less stable and relatively open political environments. They are both monarchies with a modicum of political participation. Though Qatar allows nothing that resembles political parties, there is limited room for freedom of expression. Morocco is a livelier political scene, but the monarchy remains dominant whenever it counts.
America has already adjusted
The Biden Administration has already adjusted. It is treating democratic values as tertiary issues with any Middle Eastern country with a claim to good relations with the US. There is no more talk of Saudi Arabia as a rogue state. Washington is silent on the restorations of autocracy in Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain. The Americans want to see negotiated solutions in Yemen, Libya, and Sudan. Those are more likely to restore autocracy, or something like Iraq’s power-sharing anocracy, than any sort of recognizable democratic rule.
The Americans are not joining the Syria normalization parade. They are not blocking it either. Washington no doubt figures the conditions are better than nothing. We’ll have to wait and see if that is true.
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Justice can’t substitute for politics
Anwar Albuni, Director of the Syria Center for Legal Studies and Research in Berlin, gave an overview today at the Middle East Institute of prosecutions in Europe for serious crimes over the past 12 years of revolution, repression, and civil war in Syria. These include at least 60 indictees for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including Bashar al Assad if I understood correctly, as well as many others for money laundering.
Justice as a substitute for political progress
Albuni’s view is that these prosecutions worry the Syrian leadership and send a powerful message to human rights abusers worldwide. He hopes that in the absence of any progress in the constitutional talks in Geneva, the prosecutions in Europe and one potential prosecution in Chicago will exclude abusers from the political process and prevent diplomatic normalization with the Syrian regime. The Russians and Chinese are blocking any action in the UN Security Council. But he hopes the General Assembly may create a special court, at least to prosecute use of chemical weapons.
The diplomatic normalization the Arab countries are pursuing with Syria should be, he thought, expected. The Gulf in particular wants no democracies in the region. Its monarchies even supported extremists in Syria in order to prevent a real democracy from emerging there. An audience member noted that Turkiye today is on a similar wavelength and is preventing Syrian witnesses from leaving Turkiye to testify in European courts.
Hope is not a policy
I might be inclined to hope Albuni is correct. But I don’t see much evidence for his perspective. There are certainly instances where indictments have given pause to abusers, but Syria isn’t likely to be one of them. Twelve years of civil war with only a few dozen lower-level convictions is not going to stop Bashar al Assad from his homicidal ways any more the International Criminal Court indictment will stop Vladimir Putin from kidnapping Ukrainian children.
Human rights abuses are not incidental for Assad and Putin. They are part of the war-fighting strategy and well-documented, including by an organization on whose board I sit. Bashar used chemical weapons because he found them effective. Like barrel bombs, they are cheap and indiscrimately deadly. If you are trying to terrify a civilian population, that is what you want.
Assad won’t soften
So it is unlikely that justice will do for Syria what politics has failed to do so far. Getting some of the worst abusers out of the picture and sending a message to the rest is a good idea but will just as likely stiffen Assad’s resolve as weaken it. Assad knows that softness will get him nowhere. The prosecutions may make some of his cronies think twice, but like Putin’s they can easily find a window to fall out of.
Syria’s Arab neighbors are likely to continue diplomatic normalization, in exchange for Assad’s fake promises of cracking down on the drug trade his regime now uses in lieu of taxes. The Americans show no interest in normalizing but are turning a blind eye. They are convinced that the Arab neighbors will do it even if Washington objects. The constitutional committee is likely to remain stalemated, because Assad thinks he has won the war. He has nothing to gain from the political process. Justice, justice you shall pursue, but don’t expect it to solve political problems.
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