Tag: Syria
Stevenson’s army, October 23
Read Amb.Taylor’s prepared statement.
NBC news confirms that Gen. (ret.) Keane and Sen. Graham convinced the president to keep troops in Syria to hold oil fields.
Sen. McConnell has introduced a measure criticizing administration policy in Syria but lacking any sanctions or legal consequences.See Cong Rec p. S5974.
NYT explains Russia-Turkey deal.
Administration is divided over limiting Chinese access to technology
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No smear
Read Bill Taylor. His opening statement in the House yesterday illustrates vividly why it is so important to have a professional, disciplined, and honest Foreign Service.
Bill, who was my colleague at the US Institute of Peace 10 years ago, testifies to the existence of a communications channel from President Trump to Ukrainian President Zelensky that was demanding investigations of the 2016 election and of Joe Biden’s son in exchange for freeing up military assistance and allowing Zelensky a visit to the White House. The crux of the matter is this, in Bill’s words:
The irregular policy channel was running contrary to goals of longstanding U.S. policy.
Informal channels are common and often useful in diplomacy. Bill was lucky he even knew about this one. Often they bypass the official Chief of Mission entirely. Trump is entitled to use his friends to convey messages to a foreign head of state if he likes.
But in this case the informal channel really was irregular, because it was conveying messages inconsistent with US law and policy. The Congress had provided the military assistance and the various departments of government whose assent was required had given it. Stated US policy was support for Ukraine. If Trump wanted to add conditions, he needed to tell his own Administration as well as the Congress and inform the embassy.
He failed to do that, since he knew the backlash would be gigantic. He preferred instead to use his personal lawyer and a campaign contributor now ambassador to the European Union. Rudy Giuliani and Gordon Sondland could be relied on to do Trump’s personal bidding, no matter how wrong-headed. Under instructions from the President, they were trying to use US aid to extract results that would be personally and politically beneficial to himself. Bill memorably described this as “crazy,” but it is far worse that that. It is a corrupt abuse of power.
Now the President and his minions are claiming Bill’s testimony is a “smear” because there was no quid pro quo. This is classic Trump: accusing others of doing what he is doing to them and claiming that the facts are somehow different because he says they are. Bill should wear the accusations against him with pride: he did has done the right thing and demonstrated how an honest civil servant can penetrate the fog of lies and abuse of power that surround this president.
There is more to come. Defense official Laura Cooper is talking with the House today. No doubt many intelligence officials, civil servants, and Foreign Service officers will, following Bill’s example, find the courage to speak out. There will be plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors to sort through. The big question is when Speaker Pelosi will decide that the House has enough to impeach: before the end of the year, as many are speculating, or closer to the 2020 election?
Trump has now betrayed American interests in Ukraine, Syria (by yanking US troops without proper preparation), North Korea (by ignoring missile launches), and even Saudi Arabia, where he has failed to respond to the attack on its oil production facilities. In all four places he has created openings that Russian President Putin is exploiting. There were good reasons why Putin intervened in the 2016 election in favor of Trump, who is both strikingly incompetent and beholden to Russian financing.
That is no smear. It is the sad and apparent truth.
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
Apparently in one of his recent golf games with the president, Lindsey Graham persuaded Trump to keep some US forces in Syria in order to protect Kurdish oil fields. FP says it’s unclear what that means in practice.
Both WaPo and NYT have stories saying Putin and Orban persuaded Trump that Ukraine was a swamp of corruption and shouldn’t be helped.
Many lawmakers are still pushing to censure Trump for his betrayal of the Kurds.
Iraqi military says US forces moving from Syria don’t have permission to stay in Iraq.
WaPo tallies the many incomplete deals Trump claims he has made.
WH personnel office correctly told the president that he can’t name two other acting officials as acting head of DHS. This is all because of the Vacancy Act.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 21
– Erdogan wants nuclear weapons.
–China, Russia & Iran plan joint naval exercises.
–Russian hackers are busy in Europe.
– WSJ says Trump now plans residual force in Syria to protect oil.– WaPo, fact-checks Trump claim that Saudis will pay for extra US forces.
– State fights back.
– New book by Mattis speechwriter describes first Pentagon briefing for Trump.
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Walking back
President Trump and his minions are walking back a lot of things:
- No, the Trump Doral resort will not host the G7;
- No, Trump did not greenlight the Turkish invasion of Syria and attack on the Syrian Kurds;
- No, the President’s chief of staff did not confirm that the President wanted an investigation into Joe Biden and his son in exchange for Congressionally mandated military aid to Ukraine.
None of these corrections comes even close to erasing the original mistakes. If it is wrong for Trump to host the G7 at one of his resorts, it is also wrong for foreign governments and US agencies to be padding his income at the Trump hotel in DC and a resort in Scotland. He definitely did yank the US troops who were preventing a Turkish invasion of Syria, without apparently thinking about the consequences, which are catastrophic for both the Kurds and Arabs who did the bulk of the fighting against the Islamic State in Syria. Chief of staff Mulvaney’s denials don’t pass the laugh test, or Chris Wallace’s grilling.
Trump is reaching his limits. Public opinion among Democrats and independents is turning against him on the impeachment inquiry. John Kasich may not be a typical Republican today, but he is an intelligent one calling for impeachment. At least a few Senators may not be far behind. The damage to America’s standing in the world, and to their hopes for re-election, is becoming all too evident. Still, most rank and file Republicans are backing Trump. If that starts to change, the Senate dam will break.
Ron Chernow, who knows more American history than anyone else alive, has the most interesting and compelling take on impeachment today: it was designed, he says, precisely for someone like Trump. I confess to me it seems almost too good for someone of his ilk, but Chernow helpfully notes that prosecution can come once he is out of office. I do hope to live long enough to see that happen.
Meanwhile, American interests worldwide are suffering mightily. Everyone who depends on the US has to see the instant betrayal of the Kurds as a warning. No American friend or ally should be neglecting to hedge by seeking support elsewhere. America’s adversaries are enjoying the spectacle, which has handed Russia and Iran a leg up in Syria and enabled both of them to gain invaluable intelligence on US military operations both from the abandoned bases and from erstwhile US allies.
Trump’s move has also signaled, once again, that he is a pushover who yields easily to adversaries. Turkish President Erdogan rolled him, the Iranians have apparently gotten away with a serious attack on Saudi oil production facilities, Russia is enjoying impunity for its invasion of Ukraine, and the North Koreans have given Trump an ultimatum if he wants them to make even small moves to limit their nuclear program. Make America Great Again is not only isolating the United States but diminishing it. Even at the end of the Vietnam war, which was unquestionably a low point for US influence in the world, American influence was greater than it is today.
The spectacle of the United States walking backwards is demoralizing, not only to Americans but also to much of the rest of the world. Let’s hope we get Trump out of office within the next year or so. If he gets re-elected, the damage will be irreversible.
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Stevenson’s army, October 18 and 20
October 20: Next fights
SecDef Esper says US troops in northern Syria will move to Iraq.
Politico had an earlier report about military thinking about ISIS now.
RollCall says Congress is still likely to vote on Turkey sanctions.
I can’t locate a new CRS report on how the Senate handles impeachment, so I’ll give you the rules and precedents from the longtime Senate parliamentarian, Floyd Riddick.
FP has a bunch of articles on how to cope with Trump’s foreign policies.
October 18: Words matter
Look at the text of the US-Turkish agreement. The word “cease-fire” isn’t there, only a 120 hour “pause” to allow the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from the undefined “safe zone.” And the US agreed that it agreed the safe zone had to include “the re-collection of YPG heavy weapons and the disablement of their fortifications and all other fighting positions.”WSJ points out some of the other ambiguities in the agreement. NYT calls it a “cave-in” to Turkey. WaPo says DOD is rushing to develop its plans. Peter Beinart calls Democrats critical of the Syria pullout hypocrites because of their views on Afghanistan.
BTW, McConnell says the Senate will start taking up appropriations bills.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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