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Peace Picks November 12 – 18

Posted in Rory Coleman - November 12, 2018 - 0 Comment

Defending Sovereignty and Information Space | Tuesday, November 13 | 11:30 am – 1 pm | Atlantic Council |
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here

How should one respond to the many interlocking elements that make up this tool of statecraft in order to reinforce the resiliency of our societies and technology and how to use all levers of national power to contain the negative effects of Russian activities?

Russia has been exploiting agents of influence and information space to sway public opinion and mislead government actors. In the wake of the 2016 US Presidential election, the United States was forced to come to terms with Russian interference in American democratic institutions and the sudden throwback to many Russian Cold War-era hybrid tactics. Nevertheless, the Republic of Estonia, along with other European allies, have been well aware of these tactics and have been working to counter the resurgence of Russian activities.

As hybrid warfare has benefited immensely from the digital age, the United States and its European allies and partners urgently need to comprehend the tasks, purposes, and organization of these tactics in order to reinforce societal and technological resilience to face unprecedented levels of state-sponsored influence and interference campaigns.

A conversation with:
Ambassador Victoria Nuland
Former Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs,
US Department of State;
Chief Executive Officer
Center for a New American Security

Dr. Thomas Rid
Professor of Strategic Studies,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University

General Riho Terras
Commander
Estonian Defense Forces

Moderated by:
H.E. Jonatan Vseviov
Ambassador
Embassy of Estonia to the United States

Hudson Institute will host an event to discuss how the U.S. can maintain a competitive edge in the development of 5G technology and the future of global telecommunications. Panelists include former Federal Communications Commissioner and Hudson Senior Fellow Harold Furchtgott-Roth; CEO of global telecommunications company Rivada Networks Declan Ganley; and former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush Karl Rove.

Chinese technology has played a growing role in the global 5G network, with over 58 countries agreeing to use Chinese hardware in their future networks. As it emerges over the next decade, 5G promises to vastly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. While the rollout of 5G will demand billions of dollars, the companies and countries investing now will have a strong say in not only how 5G transmits information, but how others are able to access the system. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson Senior Fellow Arthur Herman.

Speakers

Harold Furchtgott-Roth Speaker

Former Federal Communications Commissioner and Senior Fellow and Director, Center for the Economics of the Internet, Hudson Institute

Declan Ganley Speaker

CEO, Rivada Networks

Karl Rove Speaker

Former Deputy Chief of Staff to President George W. Bush.

Arthur Herman (Moderator) Speaker

Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

The CSIS Europe Program is delighted to host a conversation with U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation. With the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections, we will discuss what the future holds for U.S. policy toward NATO and European security, Russia, the Western Balkans, as well as the U.S.-EU trade relationship from a Congressional perspective. Following Senator Murphy’s remarks, CSIS experts will assess the impact that the new Congress will have on foreign and national security policy, and discuss the issues they will be keeping their eyes on in the 116th Congress.

Featuring:

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D – CT),

Ranking Member, Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation

CSIS Experts

Heather A. Conley,

Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program

William Alan Reinsch,

Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business

Louis Lauter,

Vice President for Congressional and Government Affairs

The Indo-Pacific region, a key focus of the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda, is undergoing significant political and strategic realignments with the return to great power competition. India’s role in the region is central to these developments, both in its emerging partnerships with nations like Japan and the United States and in its deepening rivalry with neighboring China. How are these dynamics likely to play out, and what are their broader strategic implications? Please join the Stimson Center for a panel discussion addressing views from across Asia on the political and security impacts of intra-regional cooperation and competition. Our panelists, Manoj Joshi, Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, Brett Lambert, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy, U.S. Department of Defense, Yun Sun, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, and Yuki Tatsumi, Co-Director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program, will offer comments. Sameer Lalwani, Director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, will convene our meeting, and Elizabeth Threlkeld, South Asia Program Deputy Director, will moderate the discussion.

The Asia Strategy Initiative (ASI) is a joint effort by Stimson’s East, Southeast, and South Asia Program to feature regional perspectives on the shifting strategic dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. By introducing expert analysis, ASI seeks to facilitate dialogues and develop pragmatic solutions for strategic, political, and economic challenges that the region faces.

What is the state of governance in the various zones in Syria? Is a pre-2011 hyper centralized governance structure conducive to the peace process? How can a Syria-tailored decentralization model help the peace process? In its latest book publication, Centralization and Decentralization in Syria: The Concept and Practice, Omran Center for Strategic Studies examines Syria’s current forms of governance and how experiences on the ground, in the various zones of influence, converge or diverge from the concepts of centralization and decentralization.

To discuss the book and its findings, New America and Omran present Dr. Ammar Kahf, Executive Director and co-founder of the Omran Center who earned his Ph.D. in Political Science and Islamic Studies at the University of California Los Angeles and previously served as the Chief of Staff to the Secretary General of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces from 2012 to 2013, and Mr. Yaser Tabbara, Esq., co-founder and board member of the Omran Center, and a former Senior Advisor to the Syrian Interim Government Prime Minister in 2013. Further remarks will be provided by Mona Yacoubian, Senior Adviser for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace and former Deputy Assistant Administrator in the Middle East Bureau at USAID from 2014-2017 where she had responsibility for Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon.

Participants:

Ammar Kahf, @ammarkahf
Executive Director, Omran Center for Strategic Studies

Yaser Tabbara, @abulyas
Co-Founder and Board Member, Omran Center for Strategic Studies

Mona Yacoubian, @myacoubian
Senior Adviser, United States Institute of Peace

Moderator:

Peter Bergen, @peterbergencnn
Vice President, New America

Please join us for a discussion of the external and internal drivers of change in post-Cold War Russian nuclear strategy. Dr. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard will argue that current Russian strategy is reducing the emphasis on nuclear weapons and oriented primarily toward deterring rather than fighting nuclear war. Improved conventional military capabilities are reducing Russia’s need to use nuclear weapons to compensate for conventional inferiority, and the most influential actors formulating nuclear strategy in Russia now argue for enhancing conventional and non-conventional tools to influence the course of conflict.

This event is made possible through generous support from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

FEATURING:

Kristen Ven Bruusgaard,

MacArthur Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford

Olga Olika (discussant),

Senior Advisor and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS

Michael Kofman (moderator),

Senior Research Scientist, Russia Studies Program, CNA

Tags : China, Democracy and Rule of Law, India, Russia, Syria

Your Saturday video, delayed

Posted in Daniel Serwer - October 29, 2018 - 0 Comment

I spent a few minutes Saturday with CGTN answering questions about statements at the Manama Dialogue as well as the French/German/Russian/Turkish meeting on Syria in Istanbul:

Tags : Saudi Arabia, Syria

Peace Picks: October 22 – 28

Posted in Tal Marom - October 21, 2018 - 0 Comment

On September 30, Macedonians voted in a referendum that would rename the country North Macedonia and remove the key obstacle to NATO and European Union (EU) membership. A boycott effort, outside influences, and ambivalent results – more than 90 percent voting yes, but below 40 percent turnout – raise questions about what comes next.

Will the government in Skopje muster the constitutional majority required to adopt the changes called for in the Prespa Agreement it negotiated with Greece? If not, will the country face snap parliamentary elections? How does this influence the calculus in Greece ahead of its own difficult parliamentary vote on the agreement? What impact does this have on the region and prospects for future NATO and EU enlargement. What roles are the United States, Europe and Russia playing in all this?

Speakers
The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen
Former Secretary General of NATO

Lilica Kitanovska
Chief, VOA Macedonian Service

Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President, Programs and Strategy, Atlantic Council

Since April 2018, Nicaragua has been rocked by street protests against the government of President Daniel Ortega. Amidst harsh measures that criminalize social protest, the government arrested over two dozen opposition activists and leaders on Sunday, October 14th, subsequently releasing them after an international outcry.

According to the OAS Inter-American Human Rights Commission, over 300 people have been killed, the majority of them anti-government demonstrators. A broad civic alliance consisting of the private sector, student, labor, and human rights groups, and intellectuals has demanded an end to the repression, the resignation of Ortega, and the holding of early elections. Attempts by the Catholic Church to mediate a dialogue have thus far failed.

Speakers
Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson Center

Douglas Castro
Professor & Researcher, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Lesther Alemán
Student of Communications, Universidad Centroamericana
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Jeancarlo López
Student of Engineering, National Autonomous University of Nicaragua
Member of Alianza Cívica’s Political Committee

Dr. Shelley McConnell
Associate Professor of Government
St. Lawrence University

Israel sits at the center of a region in the throes of several major challenges, including the situations in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon as well as the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Join the Wilson Center for a conversation with Ephraim Sneh, a long-time Israeli official and analyst of Israel’s foreign policy and the region at large. He will address these challenges as well as the state of U.S.-Israeli relations.

Speakers
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center

Aaron David Miller
Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center

General (Ret.) Ephraim Sneh
Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College Former Cabinet Member and Knesset Member

The United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. But as the date approaches, important aspects of the withdrawal agreement as well as the future relationship between the U.K. and EU, particularly on trade, remain unresolved. Nowhere are the stakes higher than in Northern Ireland, where the re-imposition of a hard border with Ireland could threaten a hard-fought peace. Scotland, which voted resoundingly against Brexit, has raised questions about the future of devolved governance arrangements in the U.K., while the independence question remains alive. As Robert Bosch Senior Fellow Amanda Sloat writes in her recent report “Divided kingdom: How Brexit is remaking the UK’s constitutional order,” “Brexit will alter not one but two unions: the European Union and the United Kingdom.”

On October 23, 2018, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion on the Brexit endgame. It will examine what the decisions of the coming weeks could mean for the U.K., Ireland and Northern Ireland, Scotland, the European Union, and the United States. Sloat will be joined on the panel by Douglas Alexander, former U.K. Secretary of State for Scotland and Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs; Lucinda Creighton, former Irish Minister for European Affairs; and Sir Kim Darroch, British Ambassador to the United States. Edward Luce of the Financial Times will moderate.

Speakers
Thomas Wright
Director, Center on the United States and Europe

Amanda Sloat
Robert Bosch Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe

Douglas Alexander
Senior Fellow, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Chair, UNICEF UK

Lucinda Creighton
CEO, Vulcan Consulting

Sir Kim Darroch
British Ambassador to the United States, British Embassy

Edward Luce
Washington Columnist and Commentator, Financial Times

A panel discussion addressing the evolution, challenges, and future of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Deployed in 2007 to counter the threat of al-Shabaab in Somalia, AMISOM remains the African Union’s most extensive and dangerous military intervention. Eleven years later, however, Somalia’s security challenges persist. As al-Shabaab continues to stage deadly attacks, questions linger regarding AMISOM’s transition, the commitment of its Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and the ability of the Somali National Army to stand on its own.

The event will feature Paul D. Williams, and his recent book, Fighting for Peace in Somalia: A History and Analysis of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), 2007-2017, which offers a meticulous account of AMISOM since its deployment. Paul Williams will present insights from his book on the history and obstacles of AMISOM, and address how AMISOM’s funders and troop contributors envision its future. Amanda Dory, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, will then weigh in on potential avenues through which AMISOM could transition from Somalia.

Speakers
Paul D. Williams
Associate Director of the Security Policy Studies M.A. Program, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs

Amanda Dory
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Judd Devermont
Director, Africa Program

The war in Yemen is in its fourth year of unabating violence. What began as a power struggle within the government has now ensnared a population of nearly 30 million. With tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and many more dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival, the state is on the brink of collapse

Yemen now constitutes one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, in a large and impoverished country. Nonetheless, little discussion is devoted to how U.S. policy affects this disaster and what might be done to ease the dire conditions on the ground. The United States supports the war effort of the Saudi- and Emirati-led coalition in the war, fighting against Iranian-backed Houthis. The war will also have major implications for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its stability. Riyadh is America’s oldest ally in the region and Washington has important geopolitical interests at stake. In September, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the U.S. allies were working to reduce civilian casualties, reportedly overriding staff recommendations on this.

Speakers
Natan Sachs
Director, Center for Middle East Policy

Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy

Dafna Rand
Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps

Fatima Abo Alasrar
Senior Analyst, Arabia Foundation

Daniel L. Byman
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

Hudson Institute will host a panel to assess U.S. policy in Syria. Panelists will consider how the Trump Administration’s new Syria strategy diverges from previous administrations’ and analyze how the new strategy intends to respond to outside influencers, particularly Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State, who continue to obstruct U.S. efforts within Syria.

Speakers
Mariam Jalabi
Representative, Syrian Opposition Coalition to the United Nations

Michael Doran
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Jonas Parello-Plesner
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Jomana Qaddour
Doctoral Candidate, Georgetown University Law Center
Former Senior Policy Analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom

Join Muriel Domenach, Secretary General of the French government’s Inter-ministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization (CIPDR), as she discusses France’s ongoing efforts to counter radicalization and violent extremism.

“Prevent to Protect,” the plan released by CIPDR in February 2018, offered 60 measures to refocus France’s policy of prevention around five key themes:

Shielding individuals from radicalization
Widening the detection and prevention network
Understanding and preparing for developments in radicalization
Training local stakeholders and assessing practices
Tailoring disengagement schemes

After Ms. Domenach’s remarks, Seth G. Jones, Harold Brown Chair and Director of the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, will host a moderated armchair discussion comparing and contrasting the French and American perspectives on the issues of returning foreign fighters, counter-narrative efforts, and building community resilience.

Speakers
Muriel Domenach
Secretary General, Interministerial Committee for the Prevention of Delinquency and Radicalization

Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair
Director, Transnational Threats Project
Senior Adviser, International Security Program

Tags : Africa, Balkans, Brexit, European Union, Ireland, Israel, Israel/Palestine, Latin America, Somalia, Syria, Yemen

Iran’s offensive defense

Posted in Tal Marom - October 17, 2018 - 0 Comment

The International Institute for Strategic Studies hosted a panel of experts on Iran’s Regional Posture October 11. The panel consisted of Dina Esfandiary, fellow at the Century Foundation, Ambassador Barbara A. Leaf, former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director of the International Crisis Group.

Panelists revisited the nature and role of Iran today, dissecting Iran’s motivations, threats, and constraints, beyond traditional perspectives that privilege analyses based on American interests. With ethno-sectarian conflicts raging in Syria and Yemen as well as a tense political transition in Iraq, the Saudi-led Gulf states and Iran, the region’s major actors, have been embroiled in a competition of political and strategic influence.

But is it that simple? Esfandiary sought to move beyond polarity. She pointed out that Iran is not simply vying for power, but seeks to preserve its territorial integrity against Western and Gulf nations it views as aggressive. As a main center of Shi’a Islam, Iran sees itself as entitled to regional influence. Esfandiary elaborated that while religion was a foreign policy driver for the post-Revolution state’s early years, the Iranian government now leans towards nationalism as a better way to unify the nation’s people and frame its foreign policy endeavors. Elaborating on this point, Leaf said that Iran’s posture should be understood as an offensive defense, a response to the US presence and support of both the Israelis and the Saudis, which it sees as a threats to its territorial integrity and legitimate involvement in Arab affairs.

Iraq, Esfandiary said, is Iran’s highest regional priority. Tehran seeks a central government in Baghdad aligned with its interests. However, with the election of Barham Salih as Iraq’s new President, and his selection of Adel Abdul Mahdi as Prime Minister, many analysts have signaled a turn in Iraq away from the rigid ethno-sectarian politics that have dominated the post-invasion landscape. With many Iraqis disillusioned by dysfunctional governance resulting from proxy politics, Iran’s ability to sway the new government’s formation and the future of the nation’s politics are limited. Esfandiary further identified the Syrian civil conflict as Iran’s second priority, and the conflict in Yemen as its last priority, questioning whether Iran has a long-term strategic goal in Yemen at all. Leaf agreed, with Iraq as Iran’s greatest concern given the election year.

Invoking Iran’s Hezbollah model, Leaf listed the three major instruments in Iran’s toolbox:

Creating and directing splintered proxy groups, preferably local actors, to shape civil conflicts as Tehran sees fit. In particular, supporting and directing Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq.
Increasing its defense and intelligence architecture in Syria, part of its corridor to Israel and the Mediterranean.
Exploiting disordered Arab states with sizeable Shi’a minorities.

Vaez added Iran’s nuclear program as another instrument of the state’s offensive defense strategy in the region: a deterrent to nuclear Israel and the aggressive Gulf states, all supported by the US.

Underscoring the constraints of current containment policies, Vaez underlined that Trump was misguided in withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. While the goal is to deprive Iran of resources through sanctions, Iran’s regional proxy operations are not strongly correlated to sanctions, citing 2011 as a year in which Iran was able to expand its proxy operations while under increased pressure from multilateral sanctions.

With another round of harsher sanctions going into effect on November 4, Vaez fears that in the unlikely scenario of effective sanctions, Iran’s political system and elite will welcome a crisis, whipping up nationalist sentiment and acting in a less risk-averse manner throughout the region. Leaf, who submitted testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Subcomittee on Terrorism, Non-Proliferation, and Trade in support of sanctions, brought up this fear in encouraging the committee to avoid mistiming sanctions, lest they strengthen Iranian nationalism.

For Esfandiary, the Gulf Arab states’ insistence that Iran pull out as a precondition for negotiations is one of the biggest constraints in reducing conflicts in Yemen and Syria. She argued that Yemen could have been ideal for negotiations with Iran, which has made it clear it is willing to negotiate. Leaf echoed this sentiment, stating that while the fractured Gulf states have tried to bring the Houthis to the negotiating table via Oman, only Tehran can succeed. Iran has been reckless in supporting the Houthis, rapidly transferring military training and technology to them. But the Houthis are independent, often operating against Iranian wishes as in their capture of both Sa’ana and Aden. Their relationship to Iran is very different from that of Hezbollah or other proxies. Further recklessness on the part of the Houthis, such as attacks on commercial ships, could be problematic for Iran.

All three panelists agreed that Iran’s image in the international sphere has improved significantly, regardless of its proxy activities. Esfandiary
and Vaez both pointed to the European Union’s effort to bypass US sanctions as well as the ICJ ruling in favor of Iran as indicators of a recovering international image. Despite the negative domestic impact of the war in Syria and Iraqi resistance to Iranian meddling, Iran appears uninterested in negotiating with the US in any capacity. Tehran instead is emphasizing its relationships with the EU, China, and Russia. Beijing and Moscow are especially important and have a higher level of familiarity with the Iranian economy than their Western counterparts.

Ultimately, Vaez warned of the need for a more inclusive security and intelligence architecture in the Middle East. The region needs a long-term strategy to escape the asymmetry and escalating armament in the region.

Tags : China, Gulf states, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Nuclear weapons, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen

Peace Picks October 15-21

Posted in Rory Coleman - October 14, 2018 - 0 Comment

Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint | Monday, October 15, 2018 | 10 am – 12 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Please join us for the launch of Defusing the South China Sea Disputes: A Regional Blueprint by the CSIS Expert Working Group on the South China Sea, which brings together prominent experts on maritime law, international relations, and the marine environment from China, Southeast Asia, and beyond. Members of the group gathered three times between July 2017 and July 2018 to discuss issues that they consider necessary for the successful management of the South China Sea disputes, and produced blueprints for a path forward on each. The members believe these three proposed agreements add up to a robust model for managing the South China Sea disputes, one which would be both legally and politically feasible for all parties.

The working group includes a diverse set of 27 experts from claimant states and interested countries, including the United States. It is chaired by Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at CSIS. All members take part in their personal capacities, not as representatives of their home institutions. They are invited to join the group based on their subject matter expertise and willingness to reach creative compromises.

Agenda

Summary of Blueprints
Gregory B. Poling, Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS

Panel Discussion with Members
Bonnie S. Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, CSIS
Prashanth Parameswaran, Senior Editor, The Diplomat
Amy Searight, Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS

This report was made possible by general funding to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Iranian regime has spent considerable energy capitalizing on chaos in Syria to establish transit routes from Iran to the Mediterranean. Israel has followed the movements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies in Syria warily, laying out clear red lines to deter Iranian overreach. The IRGC-Quds Force rocket attack on Israeli military posts in the Golan in May 2018 instigated Israeli retaliation against Iranian-backed ground forces. Although Iran did not respond in kind, tensions along Israel’s northwestern border and in southern Syria persist, and the potential for an Israeli-Iranian conflict looms.

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft and Rafik Hariri Centers on Wednesday, October 17 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. for the launch of nonresident senior fellow Nader Uskowi’s issue brief on Iran’s evolving strategy in Syria and the implications for regional security. This discussion will focus on the possibility for future conflict between Iran and Israel as the Syrian conflict enters its next phase, as well as how the United States can adapt its own policies to reflect the altered power structure in the region.

A conversation with:

Nader Uskowi
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council

Assaf Orion
Military Fellow
Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Jennifer Cafarella
Director of Intelligence Planning
Institute for the Study of War

The countries of Georgia, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine stand at a crossroads. Perched between Russia and the West, they have chosen a path of economic and political reform and closer relations with the West. They face substantial challenges dealing with the systemic legacy of the Soviet period as they pursue reform, while also confronting Kremlin interference in their affairs and occupation of their land. Once described as part of a geopolitical “grey zone,” these countries are working to instead be seen as states on the “frontlines of freedom” with futures as free, whole, and secure European states.

At this conference, the Atlantic Council will convene a group of experts to discuss topics such as the historical origins of the so-called “grey zone,” the Kremlin’s use of frozen conflicts, transatlantic policy toward the region, and democratic progress in these states.

This event will include a spotlight address from the Hon. A. Wess Mitchell, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, on US strategy in Central and Eastern Europe.

Agenda

Introduction

Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council

Keynote Remarks

The Hon. Roger Wicker, US Senator for Mississippi, US Senate

Address: The Historical Origins of the Frontlines of Freedom

Dr. Serhii Plokhii, Director, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University

Address: “Grey Zone” Past and Future

The Hon. Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, US Department of State

Fireside Chat

Dr. Serhii Plokhii, Director, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University

The Hon. Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations, US Department of State

Moderated by: Mr. Mark Simakovsky, Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Panel I: Frozen Conflicts and the Kremlin’s Agenda

Mr. Denis Cenusa, Researcher, Institut für Politikwissenschaft, Justus-Liebig-Universität

Ambassador John Herbst, Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Minister Tinatin Khidasheli, Former Defense Minister, Republic of Georgia

Ms. Maria Snegovaya, Adjunct Fellow, Center for European Policy and Analysis; Research Associate, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland

Ambassador James Warlick, Partner and Senior Policy Adviser, Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners

Moderated by: Dr. Michael Carpenter, Senior Director, Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement; Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Spotlight Address: Strategy in Central and Eastern Europe

The Hon. A. Wess Mitchell, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US Department of State

Introduced by: Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council

Panel II: Transatlantic Policy Towards the Region

H.E. David Bakradze, Ambassador of Georgia to the United States

Mr. David Kramer, Senior Fellow, Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy, Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, Florida International University

Mr. Alex Tiersky, Senior Policy Adviser, US Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe

Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council

Moderated by: Ms. Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council

Panel III: Democratic Progress in the Frontlines of Freedom

Mr. Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy

Dr. Laura Jewett, Senior Associate and Regional Director for Eurasia, National Democratic Institute

Mr. Stephen Nix, Regional Director, Eurasia, International Republican Institute

Moderated by: Ms. Eka Gigauri, Executive Director, Transparency International Georgia

Countering traditional notions of balance-of-power theory, smaller states have not joined together militarily to oppose the United States’ rising power at the end of the Cold War, Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, or Russian offensives along its Western border. Instead, balance-of-power politics has taken a different form.

In a new book, Restraining Great Powers: Soft Balancing from Empires to the Global Era, T.V. Paul argues that leading powers have engaged in “soft balancing,” which seeks to restrain threatening powers through the use of international institutions, informal alignments, and economic sanctions. Placing the evolution of balancing behavior in historical context, Paul examines how subtler forms of balance-of-power politics can help states achieve their goals against aggressive powers without wars or arms races. Paul will be joined in conversation by Richard Fontaine and Ellen Laipson. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate. Copies of the book will be available for sale.

T.V. PAUL

T.V. Paul is James McGill Professor of International Relations in the department of Political Science at McGill University.

RICHARD FONTAINE

Richard Fontaine is the president of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

ELLEN LAIPSON

Ellen Laipson is the director of the Master’s in International Security degree program and the Center for Security Policy Studies at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

ASHLEY J. TELLIS

Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Why do peacebuilders sometimes succeed and sometimes fail, even within the same country? Why can organizations not guarantee the same results from the same policies? Peacebuilders struggle to answer these questions and create programs with consistently positive results. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace as we discuss policy recommendations drawn from new research highlighting unexpected solutions to a long-standing challenge.

Organizations that work to build peace in fragile states often fail to meet the stated goals of the programs they design to resolve violent conflict. In her newly published book, Global Governance and Local Peace: Accountability and Performance in International Peacebuilding, Susanna Campbell dives into why peacebuilding organizations often fail and presents one of the keys to success: local actors that force organizations to stay accountable to local peacebuilding goals. Join experts as they discuss Campbell’s findings and how country-based staff can sidestep normal accountability procedures and empower local actors to push for innovative solutions to local problems.

Speakers

Susanna Campbell
Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University

Michael Barnett
Professor, International Affairs and Political Science, The George Washington University

Mike Jobbins
Senior Director of Partnerships and Engagement, Search for Common Ground

Kate Somvongsiri
Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau of Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development

Leanne Erdberg, moderator
Director, Countering Violent Extremism, The U.S. Institute of Peace

Tags : Georgia, Iran, Moldova, Peace, South China Sea, Syria, The Middle East, Ukraine

Your Saturday video

Posted in Daniel Serwer - October 6, 2018 - 0 Comment

Al Jazeera‘s Mehdi Hasan challenges Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif:

Tags : Iran, Syria

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From War to Peace:

Righting the Balance

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