Tag: Taiwan
Stevenson’s army, August 27
– US still expects a truck bomb near the Kabul airport.
– WSJ has good background reports on ISIS-K and on Haqqani network.
– Treasury allows humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
FAOs take note: naval war college prof says US can’t succeed in building foreign armies.
-Defense One notes omission from Russian strategy document.
– Poll shows US support for defending Taiwan.
– WaPo has interactive site to follow redistricting.
– WOTR says we need to change combatant command arrangements.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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I hope we’ve learned unilateral withdrawal is a bad idea
Judging from my inbox, a lot of people around the world are thinking the US withdrawal from Afghanistan could be prelude to withdrawal elsewhere. I think the opposite is true. The Afghanistan debacle will make it difficult to discuss withdrawal almost anywhere for at least two and likely three years.
President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan completely, thus fulfilling (four months late) the terms of President Trump’s agreement with the Taliban, has strong support across the political spectrum in Washington. But the way it was done was shambolic. Biden failed to ensure either a negotiated “decent interval” from the Taliban or a commitment of the Afghan security forces to defend the country’s government. There appears to have been no serious transition plan. The Americans literally withdrew from Bagram air base, the biggest in Afghanistan, in the dark of night, without consulting or informing the local Afghan commander.
It may well be that this was done to prevent panic, as President Biden has implied. But that was an ill-considered plan. Did anyone really think things would go more smoothly without Afghan cooperation?
The “Saigon in Kabul” scenes will inoculate the Administration against any further withdrawals, at least until a second Biden term. There will of course be force adjustments for operational reasons, some of them potentially major, like getting the American aircraft out of Al Udeid in Qatar. They are exposed to Iranian missiles and will need to be moved if there are going to be hostilities, or even the threat of hostilities, with Tehran. I wouldn’t mind seeing fewer US troops committed in autocracies like Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, but those would need to be carefully considered and well-executed. We may not like their style of governance, but replacements could be worse. I would expect no major drawdowns in places like Iraq, Kosovo, Cuba (Guantanamo), Japan, South Korea, or Europe, unless they are negotiated and agreed with the local authorities.
The only major US commitment under discussion in Washington these days is to Taiwan. China is growing in military strength. Taiwanese, watching Hong Kong and Xinjiang, are less interested in reunification and increasingly interested in independence. It is no longer as clear as it once was that the US has both the means and the will to defend against a Chinese attack, even if it is eminently clear the Taiwanese would make a takeover difficult for Beijing. But there are no deployed American ground forces in Taiwan, so no question of withdrawal. I assume the US Navy will continue to make its presence felt in Western Pacific and seek to improve its posture in defending the first island chain.
It has been clear for two decades that the US does not want to be the world’s policeman, patroling worldwide. I doubt Americans even want to serve as the world’s fireman, reacting to conflagrations as a first responder. The arguments for retrenchment are strong. But the consequences of withdrawal, especially when unilateral, can be catastrophic. I hope we’ve learned that much.
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Peace Picks | August 16-20, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- What’s Next for Cross-Strait Relations? Trends, Drivers, and Challenges | Aug 17, 2021 | 8:30 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
Please join CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette for a discussion on the future opportunities and challenges that confront cross-Strait relations with Chiu Chui-cheng, Deputy Minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.
Speakers:
Chiu Chui-Cheng
Deputy Minister, Mainland Affairs Council, Republic of China
Jude Blanchette
Freemand Chair in Asia Studies, CSIS
- Karun: The tragedy of Iran’s longest river | Aug 17, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Recent protests in Iran’s Khuzestan province have brought new attention to the country’s serious and mounting water shortages caused by decades of mismanagement, exacerbated by droughts and climate change. To delve deeper into these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative invites you to view “Karun,” an award-winning documentary by filmmaker Mohammad Ehsani. It traces the path and the environs of the Karun River, Iran’s longest waterway, which used to be an important source for agriculture and drinking water in Khuzestan. Kaveh Madani, a noted Iranian environmental expert, will provide commentary.
Speakers:
Kaveh Madani
Visiting Fellow, MacMillan Center, Yale University
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
- Against the Clock: Saving America’s Afghan Partners | Aug 19, 2021 | 2:30 PM EST | Center for a New American Security | Register Here
With the departure of U.S. forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s rapid military gains, the United States must act urgently to protect thousands of Afghans who aided the war effort as local translators, fixers, drivers, guides, security guards, and in other critical roles.
While the first group of Afghans recently touched down in the U.S., the vast majority of the nearly twenty thousand special immigrant visa (SIV) applicants and their families await relocation—part of a lengthy process that, as it stands, will long surpass next month’s troop withdrawal deadline. This is not the first time the U.S. has been faced with this challenge: in 1975 the Ford administration evacuated more than 100,000 Vietnamese refugees to the U.S. via Guam; and the U.S. similarly airlifted thousands of Iraqis and Kosovar Albanians to safety in 1996 and 1999, respectively. Today, as the Taliban seizes key ground across Afghanistan, there is little time to spare.
This panel will discuss the status of U.S. efforts to relocate Afghan visa applicants, lessons learned from similar evacuations in the past, and what must be done next.
Speakers:
Rep. Seth Moulton
Co-Chair, Honoring Our Promises Working Group
Member, House Armed Services Committee
Amb. Richard Armitage
President, Armitage International
Former Deputy Secretary of State (2001-2005)
Richard Fontaine
Chief Executive Officer, CNAS
Lisa Curtis
Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, CNAS
Former Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Council Senior
Director for South and Central Asia, National Security Council
- The Deeper Consequences of the War on Terror | Aug 19, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | CSIS | Register Here
The January 6 Capitol attack stunned the nation, but Karen J. Greenberg argues in her new book that the pernicious effects of disinformation, xenophobia, and disdain for the law are rooted in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) International Security Program will host this conversation on how the war on terror may have resulted in unseen effects on democratic norms, and how those democratic norms have evolved over time.
Speakers:
Karen J. Greenberg
Director, Center on National Security, Fordham University School of Law
Emily Harding
Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, International Security Program, CSIS
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Stevenson’s army, August 12
– Belarus rejected US proposed ambassador.
– China punished Lithuania over Taiwan.
– FP assesses problems in Afghanistan’s forces.
– FWIW: Here’s the Trump-Taliban peace agreement.
-CBO says debt limit likely to be reached in Oct or Nov
– Data for redistricting to be released today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 5
– The administration announced a $750 million arms sale to Taiwan, its first.
– Reuters says a new arms transfer policy will be coming soon, with added human rights criteria.
– CRS has an updated report on the congressional process in arms sales.
– China may have converted ferries for amphibious operations.
– Politico explains how HAC Chair Delauro gets her bills approved. [This reinforces my point that appropriations and armed services are the rare committees that know how to pass controversial legislation.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 14
But there’s no big news about France. Celebrate anyway.
NYT reports and speculates about disappearance of REvil from Dark Web.
But WaPo says lack of indicators it was offensive cyber op that did it.
HASC approved defense appropriations bill. But report criticizes Space Force.
Many Senate holds block defense nominees.
GOP Senators resist AUMF repeal.
Japan mentions Taiwan, climate change in new defense white paper.
I think Adam Gopnik is onto something in what he calls Biden’s “invisible ideology.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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