Tag: Taiwan

Stevenson’s army, December 22

In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.

Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.

Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.

Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, Novemberr 27

WaPo reports closure of 10 US bases in Afghanistan.
China escalates trade war with Australia.
Fight in Taiwan parliament over allowing US pork imports.
David Brooks on US political divisions.
Puzzling purge of Defense Policy Board.
Former APSA Fellow Paul Musgrave reviews IR theory in light of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
You don’t have to know details of the Amendment Tree in the Senate, only that it is the way the majority leader can block consideration of any amendments. Here’s a detailed example from last year. 
And attached is an excerpt from a CRS paper that shows how often it has been used lately.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, November 14

At US request, Israeli agents killed al Qaeda leader in Tehran.
China reacts to Pompeo statements on Taiwan.
Pew has more analysis of what went wrong with polls.
Defense One has a chapter from Tom Ricks’ new book about the ideas of the Founders.
As a Coloradan  who could see Pike’s Peak in the distance when I was growing up, I’ve always had a fondness for “America the Beautiful,” written by Katharine Lee Bates after a visit there. Historian Jill Lepore has the story.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Peace Picks | November 9 – November 13, 2020

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream. 

  1. The Future of Transatlantic Policy Towards Russia | November 9, 2020 | 9:00  – 9:45 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here

Please join CSIS and the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding (CPRDU) for a conversation with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen E. Biegun and Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marcin Przydacz on strengthening the transatlantic relationship amid today’s shifting geostrategic landscape of great power competition and a global pandemic in order to counter the foreign and security policy challenges posed by Russia.

This conversation begins a four-part series of discussions as part of the ninth annual Transatlantic Forum on Russia which will discuss the impact of geostrategic competition on the international system, growing domestic unrest in Russia, and the future of European energy security.

Speakers:

Stephen E. Biegun: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State

Marcin Przydacz: Polish Deputy Foreign Minister

Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: Director, Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding

2. Election 2020: State of Play and Implications | November 10, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

As many predicted, the 2020 election results were not finalized on Election Day. Voter turnout surged across the country, with record participation numbers that shattered levels from previous years. More than 100 million people voted early nationwide, and the country is on track for the highest turnout in more than a century.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden remain neck and neck in a handful of battleground states that have yet to declare a winner. Some House races across the country remain undecided, and control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Results have been trickling in slowly but mounting legal action and false accusations of voting fraud threaten to further delay the results.

On November 10, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar examining the results of the 2020 election. Panelists will analyze state-by-state outcomes, voter turnout trends, election administration, implications for future policy implementation, and the stakes for American democracy.

Speakers:

Darrell M. West, moderator: Vice President and Director – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation

Camille Busette: Senior Fellow – Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy ProgramDirector – Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative

John Hudak: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies

Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies

Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies

3. Myanmar’s Post-Election Future: A New Beginning? | November 10, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here

In Myanmar’s upcoming general elections, Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s ruling party, the NLD, is widely expected to emerge victorious. Nevertheless, since the party came to power in 2015, it has faced numerous international challenges.

During these pivotal times for Myanmar, join East Asia Program Co-Director Yun Sun, Ambassador U Aung Lynn, Dr. Aung Naing Oo, and Priscilla Clapp in a post-election virtual discussion unpacking the results and what they mean for the future of the peace process, the Rohingya crisis, and Myanmar’s relationship with the world.

Speakers:

U Aung Lynn: Ambassador to the United States from Myanmar

Dr. Aung Naing Oo: Executive Director of Center for Peace and Reconciliation

Priscilla Clapp: Senior Advisor, USIP; former U.S. Chargé d’Affaires in Yangon

4. Election Cycle United States and Brazil: The Impact of the 2020 Elections for Brazil | November 10, 2020 | 4:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The American and municipal presidential elections in Brazil adapted to the new reality of COVID-19. In addition to voting by mail in the U.S. and changing the election date in Brazil, Brazilian municipal elections are also the first to follow changes established by the 2019 Electoral Reform and following historic presidential elections in Brazil in 2018.

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recession and continuous polarization, what parallels can we establish between the American and Brazilian elections? How can the outcome of the American elections impact the future of bilateral relations with Brazil? How can these elections impact the Brazilian response to coronavirus and low economic growth?

Speakers:

Maurício Moura: President, Idea Big Data

Patrícia Campos Mello: Journalist, Folha de S. Paulo

Bruno Carazza: Professor, Ibmec and Fundação Dom Cabral;Columnist, Valor Econômico

Suelma Rosa: Director of Government Relations, Dow Brasil; President, Irelgov

Roberta Braga: Deputy Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council

5. Running to Stand Still? The Impact of the United Nations in the Middle East, 75 Years On | November 11, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

In its 75th year, the United Nations (U.N.) faces immense challenges in its mission to promote peace and security around the world. During the September 2020 General Assembly meeting, the U.N. reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism as a means to address the world’s problems. But is the U.N. Charter as relevant today as it was 75 years ago?

Preventing the illegal use of force and ensuring equality and dignity for all people are the cornerstones of the U.N. Charter. How has this mission fared in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region? What lessons have we learned from the U.N.’s role in conflicts such as those in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, and Syria? Is it still realistic to discuss Security Council reform? What impact would such reform have on conflicts in the MENA region?

Furthermore, there are a number of U.N. political missions and special envoys working on complex issues in countries including Yemen, Libya, and Syria. Their role has often been controversial. What alternatives must be considered to address conflict mediation in the MENA region? Does the U.N. still serve as an effective multilateral mechanism through which to pursue conflict resolution?

The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend this webinar that discusses these questions and more. The panelists will critically reflect on the achievements, challenges, and potential trajectories of the U.N. in the MENA region, in light of the organization’s 75th anniversary.

Speakers:

Noha Aboueldahab, moderator: Fellow – Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center

Habib Nassar: Director of Policy and Research – Impunity Watch 

Jakkie Cilliers: Chairman of the Board and Head of African Futures & Innovation – Institute for Security Studies

Lise Grande: United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator – Yemen

7. Ramifications of the US Elections for Change in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood | November 11, 2020 | 8:00 – 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

We have recently seen a period of US disengagement with Europe and its Eastern neighborhood. In this event, we explore changes in American foreign policy toward this region after the Presidential elections on November 3, the risks of a possible prolonged transition in Washington, and access the broader implications for the region, including those stemming from recent developments in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova as well as the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

We have recently seen a period of US disengagement with Europe and its Eastern neighborhood. In this event, we explore changes in American foreign policy toward this region after the Presidential elections on November 3, the risks of a possible prolonged transition in Washington, and access the broader implications for the region, including those stemming from recent developments in Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova as well as the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

We will explore how a “more geopolitical Europe” will react to these changes, and whether European leaders can count on a more supportive administration in Washington as they deal with the growing number of crises and challenges to regional security, including an assertive Russia and Turkey.

Speakers:

Daniel S. Hamilton: Director, Global Europe Program; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Distinguished Fellow

Cristina Gherasimov: Research Fellow, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP

Stefan Meister: Head of Tbilisi Office, Heinrich Böll Foundation; Associate Fellow, DGAP

Milan Nič, moderator: Head of Program, Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, DGAP

8. What are Pakistan’s Aims in Afghanistan? | November 12, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Pakistan’s aims in Afghanistan are variously described as the chief obstacles to a peace process in that country, or as serving as an active partner with the international community in working for a political solution to the Afghan conflict. However, on one issue, there is ordinarily little dispute: Pakistan looks at the outcome in Afghanistan as critical to its security interests. Arguably, no outside country has more to gain and lose from what happens in Afghanistan. The Middle East Institute (MEI), in co-sponsorship with INDUS, is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss Pakistani interests and aims in Afghanistan. 

How relevant currently is the concept of “strategic depth”? What kind of regime would Pakistan prefer in Kabul? What is the nature of Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban and how much influence does it exercise over the insurgency’s political wing? How important to the course of the Afghan conflict today are Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan?

Speakers:

Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein fellow, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution

Asad Durrani: Former chief, military intelligence and inter-services intelligence, Pakistan 

Afrasiab Khattak: Former Senator, Pakistan; Pashtun political and human rights activist; analyst, regional affairs

Jawed Ludin: Former deputy foreign minister of Afghanistan; president, Heart of Asia Society

Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI

9. US-Taiwan Policy in 2021 and Beyond | November 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

U.S.-Taiwan relations have advanced in recent years. At the same time, tensions have been rising in cross-Strait relations and in U.S.-China relations, raising concerns about Taiwan’s overall security. How will the results of the U.S. presidential election impact these developments? What issues relating to Taiwan should command the greatest attention from U.S. policymakers in 2021 and beyond?

On November 12, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution will host a group of policy experts to examine the future of U.S.-Taiwan policy. Panelists will participate in a cross-cutting discussion analyzing the next administration’s inheritance of U.S.-Taiwan relations and examining a range of issues critical to Taiwan’s future, including cross-Strait dynamics, Taiwan’s international space, economic security, technology issues, and security issues.

Speakers:

Ryan Hass, moderator: The Michael H. Armacost Chair Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China CenterInterim Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies

Richard C. Bush: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center

Bonnie S. Glaser: Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Syaru Shirley Lin: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Eric Sayers: Adjunct Senior Fellow, Asia-Pacific Security Program – Center for a New American Security

10. The UN Nuclear Ban Treaty Enters Into Force in January: Then What? | November 13, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment of Peace | Register Here

Fifty countries recently signed and ratified the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which will take effect in January 2021. This marks a major milestone in international efforts to ban nuclear weapons, but notably, the United States, its allies, and all other nuclear-armed states refused to take part.  

So what effect, if any, will the treaty have on international security and nuclear disarmament efforts? And how will treaty promoters attract additional states to sign and ratify it? Join Beatrice Fihn, Togzhan Kassenova, Zia Mian, and George Perkovich for a conversation on the future of the nuclear ban.

Speakers:

Beatrice Fihn: executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize-winning campaign coalition that works to prohibit and eliminate nuclear weapons.

Togzhan Kassenova: nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.

Zia Mian: physicist and co-director of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, part of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.

George Perkovich: works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies.

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Stevenson’s army, November 4

For only the 4th time since the Civil War, we won’t know the winner of a presidential contest within a day or two. In 1876, a congressionally established commission  decided between competing electoral slates from 3 states in February. In 1916, Charles Evans Hughes waited until November 22 to concede to Woodrow Wilson. In 2000, the Supreme Court stopped the vote count in Florida in mid- December.And now we await final returns and possible recounts — and maybe additional legal challenges — in five states. The Senate majority is also uncertain — and may not be resolved until Georgia runoff election[s] on January 5.
WaPo says Cybercom ran an operation against Iran before the election .
A US general says US troops might be sent to Senkaku Islands.
WOTR has a provocative piece saying US military is wrong to plan against a fait accompli in the Baltics or Taiwan.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 26

– WSJ says US is to sign defense cooperation agreement with India this week. No more details yet.
– Coast Guard is also sending cutters to western Pacific
China retaliates over Taiwan arms sales.
-Kushner helped turn foreign development agency into domestic loan provider.
– NYT tells how Trump supporters tried and failed to get WSJ to run unverified Hunter Biden story.
Both Georgia Senate races may go to runoffs, complicating Senate action in January.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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