Tag: Trade
Stevenson’s army, August 17
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– I’m really troubled by the efforts by Trump and Netanyahu to make US policy toward Israel a partisan matter. I think any member of Congress should be able to visit any country which receives overt US economic or military aid — and aid should be suspended or cut when they can’t.
– FSOs complain that Trump administration is naming far more political appointees than past administrations.
– Axios tells how USTR determined winners and losers from the China tariffs.
– BTW, some good news: the security clearance backlog has been reduced.
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Trump greenlights repression
President Trump yesterday tweeted that the Chinese government is assembling forces for a possible crackdown on protesters in Hong Kong:
Our Intelligence has informed us that the Chinese Government is moving troops to the Border with Hong Kong. Everyone should be calm and safe!
While he said “our intelligence” reported this, the videos of Chinese forces are all over the internet, including some released by Beijing. Frightening protesters out of the street is easier than chasing them out.
Compare Trump’s statement with Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s (no friend of mine):
Any violent crackdown would be completely unacceptable. … The world is watching.
Trump’s relatively neutral hope that everyone will be calm and safe is a green light to Beijing that they can crack down, albeit one with plausible deniability for Trump. If they do crackdown and things go badly, Trump can say he didn’t encourage them. In the meanwhile, he gets credit in Beijing for the soft tone.
Trump will also be applauded in Beijing for backing down on some of the tariffs he had promised to impose in September on consumer goods from China. There was a real risk that they would signal to Americans the truth: consumers pay tariffs, not the exporting countries. That on top of the collapse of US agricultural exports to China threatened to generate real domestic resistance to a tariff war that Beijing is clearly winning. The Chinese have much more effective ways of protecting the government from domestic dissent than Trump does.
Not that the Chinese aren’t hurting. They have let their currency float downwards for good reasons: they need to maintain their exports and try to counter their slowing growth, which is slumping towards 6%. That’s fast compared to the US, but not necessarily fast enough to keep a lid on discontent. Of course the Chinese will eventually have to face the recession that is inevitable in any capitalist economy, but they will want to put it off as long as possible for fear of the social consequences.
That fear is what makes Beijing so anxious and stubborn about the Hong Kong protests. The protesters are demanding:
- Complete withdrawal of the extradition bill
- Withdrawal of the “riot” description used about the 12 June protests
- Amnesty for all arrested protesters
- An independent inquiry into alleged police brutality
- Universal suffrage for the Chief Executive and Legislative Council elections
Essentially the protesters are asking for electoral democracy, accountability, amnesty, and an independent judicial system. If Beijing concedes those things to Hong Kong, what is to stop mainland Chinese from demanding the same?
The short answer is the People’s Liberation Army. No doubt some in Beijing are arguing that it will be easier to stop the protests in Hong Kong than if they spread.
The hardliners have a friend in the White House. The man has no convictions. Everything is transactional. He doesn’t hesitate to sell American values for a bowl of Chinese porridge.
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Stevenson’s army, August 13
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– I’m mildly persuaded by this piece arguing that Boris Johnson’s game plan is to win an election, and that’s more important than Brexit.
– Jeffrey Lewis discusses what the failed Russian test with nuclear release might mean.
– NYT says Afghan army is in sad shape.
– Why did Trump delay Chinese tariffs today? Vox suggests retail pressures; I’d add the sinking stock market.
Or maybe these polls.
– Former Senate Leader Harry Reid calls for an end to the legislative filibuster. WRONG. WRONG. BAD!
– Interesting Dutch report on Russian cyber threats.
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Stevenson’s army, August 10
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– RollCall says OMB has released the hold on some of the foreign aid money.
– WSJ says Turkey will send migrants back to Syria.
– FP says CIA will keep resources in Afghanistan.
– FP says Iranian intelligence services are fighting with each other.
– IG lists the damage done by the Tillerson hiring freeze at State.
– NYT notes how divided Democratic presidential candidates are on trade.
To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 7
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes an almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, follow the instructions below:
– I agree with Dan Drezner that Trump’s trade war is likely to go out of control.
– It’s even affecting US relations with Israel.
– Lawfare writers prove right on predicting radicalization.
– Libertarian author review 2 new books on covert wars.
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Trump’s radical foreign policy fails
Time for a roundup on where President Trump stands on his promise to deliver great deals for America. Spoiler alert: there are no surprises and only one modest success.
Every administration chooses its priorities. Trump has chosen Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, Venezuela, NAFTA, and immigration.
The “maximum pressure” program on Iran has caused economic distress but no willingness to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action (JCPOA), from which the United States withdrew. Iran is back to enriching uranium and accumulating quantities above the JCPOA limits, but Tehran is still hoping Europe, Russia, and China will find ways to import its oil. Iran is also flexing its muscles in the strait of Hormuz, signaling its ability to cause an oil supply disruption that would hike oil prices globally.
North Korea is thumbing its nose at Trump’s effort to portray Kim Jong-un as his best friend. His short-range missile launches are a clear signal of defiance. There is no progress to report in the nuclear negotiations, and it is increasingly clear that the US will need to settle for an agreement that falls way short of the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization it has sought. Some sort of freeze is the best that can be hoped for.
The trade war with China is going badly: it is costing both Americans and Chinese a lot, slowing economic growth worldwide, and undermining global norms for trade and investment that the Trump Administration claims to be defending. There is little hope it will end soon. Trump seems to be committed to making the tariffs permanent, but it is hard to picture how he can face the electorate in 2020 if the tariffs have led the world and the US into recession.
Trump promised improved relations with Russia, and he has not retreated from his effort to befriend President Putin and hold him blameless. But Moscow has made life difficult: its documented interference in the 2016 election, its continued efforts worldwide to counter US interests, its occupation of part of Ukraine, its repression of domestic dissent, and a Congress determined to hold Putin accountable has forced Trump to tighten and expand sanctions. Relations with Russia are not improving (and shouldn’t).
Trump is ratcheting up sanctions on Venezuela, trying to force out President Maduro. But so far shock and awe has not shocked or awed the Venezuelans, as Harold Trinkunas put it in today’s New York Times. President Maduro is still in power. Juan Guaidó and his supporters are still in the streets, where enthusiasm has flagged. Most of Latin America would like a negotiated settlement, but John Bolton is not up for that. He wants Maduro to flee.
The NAFTA renegotiation was an apparent success so far, as it generated a new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement with modest updating and improvements. But the negotiation with Ottawa and Mexico City was only half the challenge. The new agreement faces serious challenges to its approval in September in a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives that President Trump has done little or nothing to court. Will the House really approve NAFTA 2.0 while it is conducting investigations that could lead to impeachment?
Immigration is the one area of actual success for Trump, if you buy into the need to reduce it: illegal entries and asylum seekers are said to be down. Refugee entries are definitely down. But the price has been astronomical: separating children from parents, inhumane and even deadly conditions in detention facilities, denial of refugee resettlement to people in danger of their lives, and inspiration to white supremacists to commit violence. And for those who think the wall is important: little of it is being built.
The Trump Administration is a radical one: it has tried in all these areas to achieve goals that are extreme. The failures are obvious. The question is whether enough Americans will care. Certainly people worldwide do: America is not popular these days, especially but not only with its European allies. Trump is a white supremacist, but the Nordics he so much admires don’t like him.
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