Tag: Trump
Peace Picks August 9 – 15, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Update on the Victims of Sinjar: The Need to Locate Thousands of Missing Yezidis | August 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2014 the Islamic State began its campaign to annihilate Yezidis in Iraq and Syria. The territorial defeat of ISIS did not, however, end the suffering of Yezidis and other victims of Daesh. Until now, there are an estimated 2,868 Yezidis whose whereabouts are still unknown. Many of them were presumed to be dead. However, in July, Yezidi women were discovered in Syria and Iraq who had been missing since 2014 – underscoring the need for concerted international search efforts. Yezidi civil society organizations have called upon the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, the Iraqi Government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria, Interpol, UNITAD, UNAMI, and other stakeholders to craft a plan and mount a serious effort to locate Yezidi abductees who are still alive and suffering.
Speakers:
Peter Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia and Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations in Afghanistan
Abid Shamdeen
Co-Founder & Executive Director, Nadia’s Initiative
Nisan Ahmado
Journalist, Voice of America
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program Direct, Middle East Program, The Wilson Center
Amy Austin (moderator)
Public Policy fellow and former visiting Scholar at Harvard University
- RESCHEDULED: U.S. National Security in the Indo-Pacific: A Conversation with Senator Tammy Duckworth | August 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Please join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). She will discuss U.S. national security in the Indo-Pacific and her recent visit to the region. Senator Duckworth is an Iraq War Veteran, Purple Heart recipient and former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. A Blackhawk helicopter pilot, she was among the first handful of Army women to fly combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Senator Duckworth served in the Reserve Forces for 23 years before retiring at the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in 2014. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2016 after representing Illinois’s Eighth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives for two terms.
Senator Duckworth serves on the Armed Services Committee; the Environment & Public Works Committee; the Commerce, Science, Transportation Committee; and the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee.
Speakers:
U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Member, Senate Armed Services Committee
Nina Easton
Senior Associate (non-resident), CSIS
Beverly Kirk
Fellow and Director for Outreach, International Security Program, and Director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative
- The Future of Data, Oceans, and International Affairs | August 11, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Oceans are known as the final frontier. Currently, humanity knows less about oceans than about outer space. The oceans present potential solutions to some of our world’s most pressing problems such as climate change and food security, and are also an emergent strategic geopolitical battleground, with recent increased activity in the South China Sea. This GeoTech Hour will cover current oceanic data gaps, how and when these data gaps may be filled, and the implications of filling such data gaps. It will further touch upon the intersection between the oceans and international affairs, and how data is transforming this relationship.
Additionally, understanding both the deep ocean as well as coastal areas will be essential for our future ahead. Our panelists will also discuss the need to be prepared for when climate change starts to cause both extreme ocean-related weather events, such as severe hurricanes and typhoons – as well as “splash over events”, where ocean water mixes with land-based sources for potable freshwater.
Speakers:
Thammy Evans
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
Horst Kremers
Secretary-General, Senior Engineer and Information Scientist, andInformation Systems Strategy Advisor, RIMMA CoE
Eric Rasmussen
CEO, Infinitum Humanitarian Systems (IHS)
Sahil Shah
Co-founder and Director, Sustainable Seaweed
David Bray, PhD
Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
- Hindsight Up Front: Afghanistan | Ambassador Mark Green in Conversation with H.R. McMaster | August 12, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
This event, part of Hindsight Up Front, the Wilson Center’s new Afghanistan initiative, features a discussion with H.R. McMaster, a national security adviser in the Trump administration and currently the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. The conversation—moderated by Wilson Center President, Director, and CEO Mark Green—will assess nearly 20 years of U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, focus on the U.S. withdrawal and its implications, and consider options for future U.S. policy. The discussion will also explore immediate policy recommendations for the Biden administration, and what can be done to ensure that U.S. interests in Afghanistan continue to be advanced.
Speakers:
Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster
Ambassador Mark Green (moderator)
President, Director & CEO, Wilson Center
- Exploring Humanitarian Frameworks for Venezuela: Learning from Iraq’s UN Program Failure | August 11, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
On August 13, the Venezuelan opposition and Maduro will meet in Mexico to kick off Norwegian-mediated negotiations. With political discussions soon to be underway, it’s simultaneously important to consider pathways for expanded and more effective humanitarian assistance. One historical experience that offers insight into what does not work and what could work: Iraq’s 1996 oil-for-food program with the United Nations.
What are the lessons learned from Iraq’s humanitarian program that are applicable to Venezuela? How can the role of the US and the international community in the Iraq experience be applied to present-day Venezuela? What other avenues exist to address Venezuela’s ongoing humanitarian crisis?
Speakers:
Abbas Kadhim
Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Hagar Hajjar Chemali
Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council; Former Director of Communications and Spokesperson, US Mission to the United Nations
Francisco Monaldi
Director and Fellow,Latin America Initiative, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Patricia Ventura
Director,Regional Public Affairs and Government Relations, IPD Latin America
Tamara Herrera
Managing Director and Chief Economist, Síntesis Financiera
Jason Marczak (moderator)
Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Diego Area (moderator)
Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
- Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump | August 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | CATO Institute | Register Here
For an entire generation, at home and abroad, the United States has waged a war on terror. Fighting it has produced neither peace nor victory, but it has transformed America. A politically divided country turned the war on terror into a cultural and then tribal struggle, first on the ideological fringes and ultimately expanding to open a door for today’s nationalist, exclusionary resurgence.
In Reign of Terror, journalist Spencer Ackerman argues that war on terror policies laid a foundation for American authoritarianism. In Ackerman’s account, Barack Obama’s failure to end the war on terror after the killing of Osama Bin Laden allowed cultural polarization to progress and set the groundwork for Donald Trump’s rise to power. As we approach the 20th anniversary of 9/11, please join us for a discussion of how the war on terror transformed the United States and the prospects for moving away from its divisive excesses.
Speakers:
Spencer Ackerman
Author, Contributing Editor, Daily Beast
Abigail R. Hall
Associate Professor in Economics, Bellarmine University
Erin M. Simpson
Former Co-Host, Bombshell podcast from War on the Rocks
Justin Logan
Senior Fellow, CATO Institute
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Peace Picks | October 5 – October 9, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Oil, Arms, Drones, and Regional Tensions: The Second Berlin Conference on Libya and Crafting a New Interim Government | October 5, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
With the War for Tripoli won in the late Spring by the defenders and a new mutually hurting stalemate taking hold around Jufra and Sirte over the course of the summer, the arena of Libya’s Wars of Post-Gaddafi Succession have shifted to cyberspace and the negotiating table. Amid a flurry of influence operations, attempts to manipulate media optics, and the Prime Minister pledging to go into retirement if a suitable successor is found, the last weeks of September witnessed a flurry of internationally-hosted mediation dialogues on Libya taking place in Morocco, Egypt, Geneva, and Russia. On October 5, a second virtual Berlin Conference is slated to tackle the interlocking issues of oil production, distribution of revenues, the arms embargo, mercenaries and the increasingly polarization among NATO allies with France and Greece on one side and Turkey on the other.
What are the possible trajectories of Libya’s conflict from here? What sort of entity might replace the GNA? What is the future of Libya’s economic system as new mechanisms for the distribution of oil revenues now being debated? How can international actors cooperate to prevent spoilers from scuppering progress?
Speakers:
Deborah Jones: Former US Ambassador to Libya
Wolfgang Pusztai: Former Austrian Military attache to Libya
Jason Pack: Founder, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
Jonathan Winer, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; former US Special Envoy to Libya
2. Foreign Policy and the 2020 Election: Implications for Europe | October 5, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | Brookings Institute| Register Here
With the 2020 election looming amidst a trend of U.S. disengagement with Europe, both the American presidency and the future of Europe are on the ballot in November. What are the implications of the presidential election for the trans-Atlantic relationship and for U.S. foreign policy toward Europe? Would a second Trump administration follow through on threats to abandon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), leaving Europeans to their own devices on matters of security and defense? Would a Biden administration seek to rebuild bridges with its European partners, reverting even partially to a pre-Trump conception of America’s role in the world? And how would a geo-political Europe react to these changes?
On October 5, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will convene a panel discussion on the implications of the 2020 election for U.S. foreign policy, in particular toward Europe.
Speakers:
Célia Belin: Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and EuropeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Has Trumpian populism succeeded? | October 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 brought a populist into the White House. With the president’s first term nearing completion, what is the verdict? Has populism been a force for good in economic policy during the Trump years? Will populism be a force for good in economic policy going forward? And what about populism on the political left?
University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan sees success, as described in his new book, “You’re Hired!: Untold Successes and Failures of a Populist President” (Republic Book Publishers, 2020). AEI economist Michael R. Strain has a different view, presented in his new book, “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)” (Templeton Press, 2020). Join them to discuss.
Speakers:
Casey Mulligan: Professor in Economics, University of Chicago
James Pethokoukis: DeWitt Wallace Fellow, AEI
Michael R. Strain: Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI
4. What Does the Taliban Want? | October 6, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
Peace talks have begun between the Afghan government and the Taliban. One major question is how the Taliban, which is often vague about its goals beyond getting foreign troops out of Afghanistan, views key issues related to the peace process. This online-only event, organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program in partnership with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, will assess what we know–and don’t know–about the Taliban’s position on political systems, women’s rights, international terrorism, and its relationship with Pakistan; what this all may tell us about the Taliban’s future decisions and actions; and what the implications are for the peace process..
Speakers:
Ibraheem Bahiss: Independent Analyst
Malalai Bashir: Senior Journalist, Radio Azadi, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Afghan Service
Dr. Orzala Nemat: Director, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit
Rahimullah Yusufzai: Resident Editor, The News International
Abraham Denmark: Director, Asia Program
Michael Kugelman, moderator: Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
5. Online Event: Supporting Marginalized Groups amid Lebanon’s Cascading Crises | October 6, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Lebanon has been home to vulnerable communities for centuries, most recently becoming home to perhaps a million refugees fleeing the Syrian conflict. Now, as the country reels amid compounding economic, public health, and political crises, refugees join expatriate domestic workers and others among Lebanon’s most marginalized communities in facing heightened risk.
Sahar Atrache, Yasmin Kayali, and Banchi Yimer will join us for a discussion of the threats facing Lebanon’s most vulnerable communities, and what stakeholders can do to support and empower them. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guests and host, Jon B. Alterman, via the provided link.
Sahar Atrache is the senior advocate for the Middle East at Refugees International. Prior to joining Refugees International, Sahar was the senior advocacy officer at the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) and a senior analyst on the Middle East and North Africa at International Crisis Group.
Yasmin Kayali is the co-founder and CCO of Basmeh & Zeitooneh, a non-profit organization launched in 2012 that seeks to empower Syrians in exile to live lives of dignity. Basmeh & Zeitooneh designs and delivers effective relief, education, and livelihood and protection services to marginalized communities from six centers across Lebanon.
Banchi Yimer is a former domestic worker who lived in Lebanon for nearly a decade. Alongside fellow Ethiopian migrant workers, she founded Egna Legna (“Us for Ourselves”), a community-based organization working on migrant domestic workers’ issues and women’s issues in Lebanon and Ethiopia.
Speakers:
Sahar Atrache: Senior Advocate for the Middle East, Refugees International
Yasmin Kayali: Co-founder and CCO, Basmeh and Zeitooneh
Banchi Yimer: Founder and Director, Egna Legna
6. Public Opinion, Annexation, and Normalization: A 2020 Zogby Research Poll | October 7, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
In 2019 and 2020, Zogby Research Services polled in several Arab countries and Israel to assess attitudes on a number of topics related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Arab Peace Initiative, and the desirability of normalization before a final resolution of the conflict. The findings collected were surprising and instructive of a nuanced change in attitudes.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the polling data and the potential implications they have on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers:
Khaled Elgindy: Director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman: President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
James Zogby: Managing director, Zogby Research Services; founder and president, Arab American Institute
Paul Salem, moderator: President, MEI
7. Ten Years of Pan-Arab Protests: Understanding the New Dynamics of Change | October 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2019 and early 2020, the Middle East and North Africa witnessed widespread protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq marking a decade since the Arab uprisings started in 2010. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread, these movements largely subsided under strict, temporary lockdowns. However, the coronavirus exacerbated socioeconomic conditions and inequalities, thus provoking renewed street demonstrations in Lebanon and Iraq as well as other countries across the region such as Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan. As MENA governments grapple with the adverse economic impact of the pandemic and the deterioration of public services, more popular unrest is likely to erupt. In this timely discussion, former Wilson Fellow, analyst and journalist Rami Khouri, offers an in-depth comparative analysis of the 2019 protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq in dialogue with Middle East Program fellow Marina Ottaway and Bard College professor and Jadaliyya co-editor Ziad Abu Rish.
Speakers:
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
8. From the Sidelines of Nagorno-Karabakh: Georgia, Russia, and Turkey | October 7, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has faced its largest eruption of fighting since a 1994 ceasefire partially brokered by the United States. Previous escalations between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been smothered within a few days. However, the current hostilities continue to escalate and the possibility of a large scale war between the two states is becoming more likely. Russia has historically supported Armenia while maintaining close relations with both former Soviet republics. On the other hand, Turkey has announced its unconditional support of Azerbaijan and appears to be ready to provide military capabilities to the Azeris. Georgia has always maintained close neighborly relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and now has expressed its willingness to facilitate a peaceful resolution.
What are the regional consequences of a full out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan? What role do Turkey, Russia, and Georgia play in the conflict? What are the factors that inhibit long-standing peace? Why does the conflict concern the United States?
Speakers:
Neil Hauer: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Victor Kipiani: Chair, Geocase
Maxim A. Suchkov: Non-resident scholar, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Gonul Tol, moderator: Director of Turkey Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
9. Lessons from Africa: Building Resilience through Community-Based Health Systems | October 8, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
COVID-19 has revealed shortcomings in the health systems of countries all over the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, the health crisis threatens to severely curtail already limited public health services and exacerbate fragility. Yet, despite immense hurdles, past crises have shown that innovative decision-making and locally-led interventions can go a long way in improving the resilience and responsiveness of health systems. Please join the Wilson Center, in partnership with the Population Institute, for a discussion with experts on the role of trust in enabling crisis response and how a more holistic approach to access to services in addition to healthcare, like girls’ education and maternal health, ultimately increases the resilience of at-risk communities.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abdulaziz: Head of Division, Disease Control and Prevention, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Uzma Alam, PhD: Researcher, Africa Institute for Health Policy Foundation; Senior Program Officer, Africa Academy of Sciences
Juliet Nabyonga-Orem, PhD: Team Lead, Health Financing and Investment, Universal Health Coverage/Life Course Cluster, World Health Organization
Dr. Raj Panjabi: CEO, Last Mile Health; Assistant Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School and the Division of Global Health Equity at Brigham & Women’s Hospital
Ambassador Deborah R. Malac: Former U.S. Ambassador to Uganda and former U.S. Ambassador to Liberia; Career Foreign Service Officer, U.S. Department of State; Senior Fellow, Population Institute
Sarah B. Barnes, moderator:Project Director, Maternal Health Initiative
10. Can Teaching Students Real Debate Reduce Political Polarization? | October 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the midst of a highly polarized election, with an already polarized electorate, it may seem there is little hope for bridging the deep divisions in American society.
Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Robert Litan argues that teaching middle school and high school students the principles of competitive debate will make for more informed citizens and voters. Litan’s new book, “Resolved: How Debate Can Revolutionize Education and Help Save our Democracy,” makes the case for teaching middle school and high school students how to have reasoned debates where the participants use evidence and reason to constructively engage in civil discourse.
On October 9, Litan will be joined by Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at Brookings, and Norman Ornstein, AEI resident scholar, to explore how the principles of competitive debate can improve students’ lifelong work skills while making them more informed and demanding voters, and whether an engaged electorate will in turn change the way political candidates campaign for the better, improving–and maybe even saving–our democracy.
Speakers:
Robert E. Litan: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Economic Studies
Norm Ornstein: Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute
Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance Studies, Senior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
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Peace Picks | September 21 – September 25, 2020
1. Global China: Examining China’s Approach to Global Governance and Norms | September 21, 2020 | 9:30 – 10:45 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the last several years, the world has seen China taking on more responsibility and power in international institutions. China’s growing activism has provided a glimpse into its ambitions to assert a greater role for itself on matters of global governance. China’s growing activism also has raised key questions about the scale of Beijing’s ambitions and the tools it would be willing to use to advance them.
On September 21, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a webinar to address these and other questions concerning China’s evolving approach to international institutions, rules, and norms. The event will launch the next tranche of Brookings papers released as part of its series “Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World.” From human rights to energy to trade, these papers present a range of arguments for observers of China and policymakers to consider as they evaluate China’s role on the international stage.
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or by joining the conversation on Twitter with #GlobalChina.
Speakers:
Jeffrey Feltman: John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy – Foreign Policy
Lindsey W. Ford: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Sophie Richardson: China Director – Human Rights Watch
David O. Shullman: Senior Advisor – International Republican InstituteAdjunct Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
2. Reporting on 2020: Free Press, Disinformation, and Election Integrity | September 21, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
A free and independent press is essential to open societies and functioning democracies. As elections draw nearer in the United States, media is navigating how to provide the public with the facts in an information environment unlike any before. The coming months will include an election with increased vote-by-mail due to the ongoing pandemic, the continued attempts of foreign adversaries to interfere in the elections, political operatives undermining the credibility of journalism, misinformation — and more malicious disinformation — about all of it.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab on Monday, September 21 from 1:00-2:00pm ET for a discussion with leading journalists and editors on their role in the integrity of the upcoming election. We will speak with these expert journalists and editors, experienced in covering national security, technology, and elections, on their approach to delivering fact-based news to sustain an informed public, as well as avoiding the amplification of disinformation in a landscape rife with it.
Speakers:
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Stacy-Marie Ishmael: Editorial Director, Texas Tribune
Ellen Nakashima: National Security Reporter, Washington Post
Brandy Zadrozny: Reporter, NBC News
3. Ecological Threats to Peace | September 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future.
The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.
Join USIP and the Institute for Economics and Peace for a look at the inaugural Ecological Threat Register, as experts explore the nexus between conflict and climate change and consider strategies for boosting resilience to climate-induced insecurity. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #EcoThreat2020.
Speakers:
Sagal Abshir: Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University
Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace
Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson: Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross
Tyler Beckelman: Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Whither the Middle East: More Conflict or New Peace? | September 23, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Lebanon is in chaos as it struggles to rebuild politically and physically. Tensions between Iran and the United States are again mounting over access to arms and their rivalry in the region, with fears of a showdown this fall. Syria is nearing a decade of war, with no imminent prospects of peace or reconciliation. ISIS still has an estimated 10,000 fighters menacing Iraq and Syria. Yet, amid these volatile times, Israel and the U.A.E. signed the first peace agreement in more than a quarter century. Where is the Middle East headed—toward more conflict or new peace?
Speakers:
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
Daniel Kurtzer: Former Ambassador to Israel and Egypt; Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Vali Nasr: Former Dean and Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Robin Wright: USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Journalist and Author
5. The Perils of Polarization in Southeast Asia | September 23, 2020 | 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Rising levels of political polarization are hurting democracy in many Southeast Asian countries. The coronavirus pandemic is only ratcheting up political pressures further. Drawing on a new Carnegie Endowment report, “Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers,” this event will examine two critical cases—Indonesia and Thailand—to gain a regional understanding of why polarization is increasing, its political effects, and how political and civic actors can take steps to address it.
This event is being held in collaboration with Freedom House.
Speakers:
Thomas Carothers: Senior Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a leading authority on international support for democracy, human rights, governance, the rule of law, and civil society.
Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies and researcher at the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
David Timberman: Director for Asia programs at Freedom House.
Eve Warburton: Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore.
6. COVID-19 and Cease-fires: What Have We Learned? | September 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
In March, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global cease-fire to combat the spread of COVID-19. Though initially dismissed as unrealistic, the secretary-general’s call was surprisingly well-received: Nearly 70 countries, hundreds of nongovernmental organizations, and eminent persons joined in repeating the call for a humanitarian pause to address the growing pandemic. In response, several conflict parties announced unilateral cease-fires, including the National Democratic Front in the Philippines, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the National Liberation Army in Colombia. Two months later, the U.N. Security Council adopted resolution 2532, calling on conflict parties across the world to support a 90-day humanitarian cease-fire.
However, since then, it has been challenging for any bilateral or multilateral cease-fires related to the pandemic to materialize, despite the spread of COVID-19 to numerous conflict zones, including Yemen and Syria.
Join USIP for a timely discussion on the strategies needed to pursue effective cease-fires in conflict zones. Drawing from recent reports, including the recent USIP publication “Searching for COVID-19 Cease-fires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities,” panelists will consider the correlation between political willpower and conflict resolution, how the secretary-general’s cease-fire appeal was perceived on the ground in conflict zones, and whether international pressure could make a difference in advancing the secretary-general’s call.
Speakers:
Roxaneh Bazergan: Senior Political Affairs Officer and Team Leader, Mediation Support Unit, U.N. Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
Christine Bell: Professor of Constitutional Law and Assistant Principal, The University of Edinburgh School of Law
Ashish Pradhan: Senior Analyst, U.N. Advocacy and Research, International Crisis Group
Tyler Thompson: Senior Expert, Negotiations and Peace Process Support, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Security at the Maritime Edge | September 24, 2020 | 10:45 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
No global supply chain is independent of maritime transport and most are existentially dependent on it. In fact, greater than 90% of all global trade tonnage is transported by sea. While vulnerabilities in widely used software or control systems are a concern, the greater source of risk is systemic inadequacies in the public-private partnership for maritime cybersecurity and shortfalls of both capacity and coordination amongst critical stakeholders across the global security community. The lifeblood of global energy networks runs through the ocean. The cybersecurity of systems, from offshore renewable energy, to fossil fuel transport to major transshipment hubs, to floating production, storage, and offloading vessels, is an increasingly significant factor in the security of energy system as a whole.
To begin a conversation towards a strategy to address these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative under the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security invites you to join us for a virtual discussion, “Security at the Maritime Edge” on Thursday, September 24th from 10:45am-12:00pm. The event will feature opening remarks from Rear Admiral Mark H. “Buz” Buzby (USN, Ret.), Maritime Administrator for the U.S. Department of Transportation and a panel moderated by Captain Jason Tama, Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard and featuring Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America; Dr. Xavier Bellekens, Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications, University of Strathclyde; Captain Alex Soukhanov, Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber; Mr. Kevin Stine, Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce; and Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Please join this conversation via the web application Zoom, which is accessible through your web browser, the Zoom desktop or mobile app, and by phone. If you wish to join the question and answer period, you must join by app or web. Register below receive further information on how to join the virtual audience.
Speakers:
Captain Jason Tama: Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard
Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf: President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America
Dr. Xavier Bellekens: Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications,University of Strathclyde
Captain Alex Soukhanov: Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber
Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar: Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Mr. Kevin Stine: Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce
8. The Catholic Church and Peacebuilding | September 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For decades, the Catholic Church has served as a mediator in high-level negotiation efforts involving governments and nonviolent movements vying for human rights, democracy, and peace. With its deep connections to communities, institutional ties to governments, and global diplomatic status, the Catholic Church is uniquely positioned to help grassroots activists and peacebuilders collectively vocalize grievances and key demands while providing guidance and managing relationships with national and local governments. While this dual role has not been formally codified and varies based on context, it has implications for the Church’s ability to support people power movements, peace processes, and conflict prevention efforts globally.
The Church is able to advance peace globally by building strategic and tactical bridges between grassroots nonviolent action and peacebuilding actors, as well as investing in their development and capacity building. But this role is not without challenges. Can the Church serve as an effective mediator while openly denouncing human rights violations and government crackdowns against nonviolent activists? Is it possible for different Church actors to effectively assume different roles in the context of popular movements for peace and democracy? What does this look like practically and what can we learn from past cases?
Join USIP for an event that will explore how and where the Catholic Church is able—or has the potential—to effectively support peace processes and people power movements by operating at the grassroots, engaging at the formal level, and liaising in between. The speakers will share anecdotes and stories from their rich experiences, offering an opportunity to discuss current perspectives around violence prevention and conflict transformation in the Catholic Church.
Speakers:
Bishop Robert W. McElroy: Bishop of San Diego, Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Scott Appleby: Marilyn Keough Dean, Professor of History, University of Notre Dame
Sergio Cabrales: Nicaraguan Fulbright Scholar and Graduate Student, University of Pittsburgh
Marie Dennis: Senior Advisor, Pax Christi International
Maria Stephan: Director, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. U.S. and the Middle East: Lessons from the Obama and Trump Administrations | September 24, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The U.S. administration that takes office in January 2021 will formulate policies toward the Middle East and North Africa amid rising great power competition, a shifting energy landscape, and a diminished public appetite for military interventions. What lessons can be learned from the experiences of the two previous administrations? Re-Engaging the Middle East, a new book of essays edited by Dafna Rand and Andrew Miller, takes up this question across a range of countries and thematic issues.
Join us on Thursday, September 24, for a panel discussion that will bring together former Obama and Trump administration officials alongside experts from the MENA region. Together, they will take a critical look at U.S. policies under both presidents with a view toward recommendations for the next administration.
Speakers:
Alexander Bick: research scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He served as Syria director at the National Security Council and on the policy planning staff under Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.
Joyce Karam: Washington correspondent for the National and has covered American politics extensively since 2004, with a focus on U.S. policy towards the Middle East.
Mick Mulroy: Senior for National Security and Defense Policy at the Middle East Institute. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under Secretaries of Defense James Mattis and Mark Esper.
Dafna Rand: Served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s policy planning staff, and on the staff of the National Security Council.
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East.
10. The Fallout of the War in Syria | September 25, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Syrian conflict has been devastating both within the country and outside its borders. Neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have all suffered from disproportionate social and economic impacts as well as a decrease in GDP. Trade and tourism have taken a hit, while poverty rates have increased and labor market conditions have deteriorated. Yet, the regional interdependence that has led to such negative impacts may also hold the answer to addressing these challenges. A regional approach could unlock creative solutions that ultimately bring stability and even prosperity.
Join USIP for an in-depth presentation and discussion of the World Bank’s new publication, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria.” The panel will include the report’s lead author as well as regional experts who will provide insight on the economic and social effects that the Syrian conflict has had on its neighbors.
Speakers:
Saroj Kumar Jha: Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, World Bank
Harun Onder: Senior Economist, World Bank; Lead Author, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria”
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute
Natasha Hall: Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Peace Picks|February 17-23
Understanding China’s Economic Slowdown: Countering Belt and Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation| February 18, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Amid a time of open challenges to the United States for strategic and economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific by General Secretary Xi Jinping, China’s economic growth is at its slowest pace since 1992. Through the development of political and economic plans such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, China is attempting to set global development standards while simultaneously increasing other nations’ dependence on China’s technologies and its financial and developmental practices.
What is the significance of the Chinese economic slowdown and its implication for the U.S. and its allies? How can we accurately assess Chinese strengths and weaknesses, and how do we more effectively counter Beijing’s policies and actions that undermine U.S. and allied interests?
Join Hudson Institute for a conversation with experts on what China’s attempts to redefine development standards and practices means for the United States in the era of great power competition. The event will draw on John Lee’s recent report, China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Allies and his upcoming report, Ambition and Overreach: Countering One Belt One Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation.
Speakers:
Patrick Cronin: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Thomas Duesterberg: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Nicholas Lardy: Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
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Censorship and Self-Censorship in Russia| February 18, 2020 | 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here
State control on information and media and aggressive pressure on journalists seeking to maintain their independence are critical elements of the modern Russian state. Although the Russian constitution has an article expressly prohibiting censorship, in reality censorship is a constant factor in the life of the Russian media. Censorship is carried out both directly and indirectly by state pressure and through self-censorship by journalists. In partnership with IREX, the Kennan Institute will host three well-known Russian publicists, analysts, and commentators, Konstantin Sonin, Konstantin Eggert, and Gleb Cherkasov, to discuss censorship and self-censorship in Russia and its role in Russian society.
Speakers:
Konstantin Sonin: John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
Konstantin Eggert: Independent journalist, political analysts and communication consultant
Gleb Cherkasov: Journalist; Former Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Kommersant
Sergey Parkhomenko: Senior Advisor, Jounalist, “Echo of Moscow” Radio; Former Editor-in-Chief, Itogi, Vokrug Sveta
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Ending Our Endless War in Afghanistan: Washington Perspectives on a U.S.-Taliban Agreement| February 18, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
After over a year of intensive talks, press reports indicate that an official agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is imminent. The agreement reportedly begins with an immediate reduction in violence by all sides, followed by the signing of a U.S.-Taliban agreement. This would lead to intra-Afghan peace negotiations, accompanied by a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops. Implementing and verifying each step in this process will require meticulous diplomacy, but this reported agreement could mark a major turning point in the effort to end the war in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace; former National Security Advisor
The Honorable Michele Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors
Ambassador Douglas Lute: Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
Ambassador Richard Olson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Smith: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Conservative Nationalism in the Age of Trump| February 20, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
The driving force of nationalism within the Republican party is squarely in the spotlight, with the U.S. 2020 elections in sight and questions of how the United States will approach diplomatic, economic, and military issues in the balance. In his new book, Age of Iron: On Conservative Nationalism, Colin Dueck examines the strengths and weaknesses of President Trump’s foreign policy and the overarching role of conservative nationalism in the past, present, and future of U.S. foreign policy. He will be joined in conversation by Danielle Pletka and Richard Fontaine, with Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis as moderator.
Speakers:
Colin Dueck is a professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Richard Fontaine is the chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on U.S. foreign policy generally and the Middle East specifically.
Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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Bridging strategies: Infrastructure efforts in Southeast Asia in an era of great power competition| February 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the geographical heart of the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia will play a critical role in determining the region’s political, military, and economic trajectory for decades to come. As a rapidly growing region home to more than 655 million people, Southeast Asia has become a priority destination for US and Japanese infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific, as well as Chinese infrastructure efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
How do these regional infrastructure projects fit into intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? Are the new G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure compatible or competitive with China’s BRI? How can the US, Japan, and other likeminded allies and partners best operationalize these principles in the region? Ultimately, what are the geopolitical and security implications of the evolving infrastructure investment landscape across the Indo-Pacific?
The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.
Speakers:
Mr. Bart W. Edes: Representative of the North American Office, Asian Development Bank
Mr. Jonathan Hillman: Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Makoto Lyori: Visiting Fellow, Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Dr. Miyeon Oh: Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Ms. Shannon Tiezzi: Editor-in-Chief, The Diplomat
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The Impact of the Conflict on Human Rights in Syria| February 20, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University | Register Here
The Commissioners of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (Chair Professor Paulo Pinheiro, Commissioner Karen Abuzayd and Commissioner Hanny Megally) will discuss recent conflict dynamics in Syria and their impact on the human rights situation. In this context, the Commission will discuss their recently published report on child rights violations.
Speakers:
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro: A Chairman of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Karen Koning Abuzayd: A Commissioner of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Hanny Megally: A senior fellow at the New York University Center on International Cooperation
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The Crisis in Syria’s Idlib| February 21, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Nearly 600,000 people have been displaced in northwestern Syria in the last two months, in what is now the biggest humanitarian crisis in nine years of war. The brutal military assault being conducted by the Syrian government, Russia and Iran shows no signs of abating and has in recent weeks sparked direct and deadly clashes between Syrian and Turkish troops. Hospitals and schools continue to be struck from the air, IDP camps have reached capacity and humanitarian agencies are warning of an impending humanitarian disaster.
Since the Syrian government and its allies began an offensive on Idlib in the Spring of 2019, approximately 25% of the opposition-controlled territory has fallen – roughly 75% still remains. Amid this ongoing crisis and unprecedented levels of civilian displacement and human suffering, the international community appears to have been rendered powerless. The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion on the situation in Idlib, in order to discuss the nature of the crisis and the international response; the geopolitical dynamics at play; concerns over terrorism; and what possible paths might exist to resolve the situation.
Speakers:
Zaher Sahloul: President and Founder, MedGlobal
Elizabeth Tsurkov: Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Charles Lister: Senior Fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, MEI
Alexander Marquardt: Senior national correspondent, CNN
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Realism redefined
Different from previous plans, Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan addresses key issues like borders, Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees. Although the plan has enraged the Palestinians , it has received a much more favorable reception from many states than experts predicted, such as Europe and the Middle East. Without a Palestinian partner, is the plan destined, as its critics argue, to fail? Or will it, as its supporters claim, reshape the conflict in significant, beneficial, and lasting ways?
On February 11, the Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “President Trump’s Plan for Peace in the Middle East.” The discussion featured two speakers: Michael Doran and Jon Lerner. Both serve as senior fellows at the Hudson Institute.
Previous plans vs Trump’s
Lerner and Doran noted that Trump’s plan addresses all final status topics in detail, including Jerusalem, settlement, borders, and right to return, while previous plans left out these issues. Lerner believes that Trump’s plan accepts the reality, contrary to previous plans that sought to change reality on the ground. This plan guarantees Israel’s control over a unified Jerusalem rather than dividing the city. Since it is impossible for Israelis to uproot settlements from the West Bank, Trump legalizes Israeli settlements. Although this plan is a setback for Palestinians, it creates an independent Palestinian state with a capital, grants economic support to Palestinians, allows Palestinians access to Israeli ports, and proposes a tunnel connecting the West Bank and Gaza.
Bilateral or trilateral?
Because most Arab states have more concerns other than than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they didn’t offer united supports to pressure Israel into concessions, Lerner says. Due to the lack of support, Palestine should consider engaging with the US and Israel. Lerner predicts that,
- If the Palestinian were to engage in negotiations but didn’t accept the plan, they would receive a receptive audience, which could force Israel to stop its annexation.
- If the Palestinians don’t engage in negotiations, which is likely, Israel will keep moving forward and weaken the Palestinians further.
Lerner thinks the Palestinian made a wrong choice to cut all dialogue with the US after Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017. Instead, the Palestinians should have rejected Trump’s decision and worked with him on a plan until they achieved what they want. Lerner urges the Palestinian to engage in negotiations, or they will be more likely to lose ground.
US interests
Doran argues that the US has more issues in the region nowadays and needs to cooperate with its allies. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has weakened its Israeli ally, especially after Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza failed to bring stability. If the US forced Israel out of the West Bank and handed its control to Abbas, he would not have the capability to maintain control and fend off Hamas. Jordanian security could not be guaranteed either. Lerner added that the US avoided the unproductive perception of even-handedness with allies on one side, and sympathy towards Palestinians on the other. Trump’s plan is rooted in realism and the administration’s support for allies.
Lerner pointed out that irrespective of who wins the presidential election in November, the content of this plan has changed political dynamics in both Israel and the US. It will be hard for the Israeli government to accept a less generous plan than Trump’s in the future. It will also be difficult for future US administrations to propose any plan more like previous plans and less like Trump’s plan.
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Security and trade post-election
The Center for Strategic and International Studies November 14 hosted two panels on the midterm elections’ implications for the trans-Atlantic agenda and trade policy. The first featured a discussion with Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) and the second a conversation between CSIS experts Louis Lauter, Vice President for Congressional and Government Affairs, and William Alan Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business. Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and the Director of the Europe Program at CSIS, moderated.
President Trump’s current threat to leave the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty set the tone for the first discussion. Murphy framed the move as consistent with a broader agenda from the anti-institutionalists in the Administration to withdraw from multilateral organizations, with the spotlight on NATO after the President’s threatening comments last summer.
Murphy highlighted that there is a tendency in Congress to separate the President’s actions and statements from the Administration. While the President is launching rhetorical assaults against NATO, under the surface NATO cooperation continues. Many Republican colleagues have favored this approach, creating an atmosphere complacency. Murphy cautioned that the President should be taken at his word. Congress should prevent an executive withdrawal from NATO. The Senator introduced a failed bill back in July that would have required Congressional consent. There might be more interest in the Democratic-controlled House once Congress reconvenes.
Murphy warned that US foreign policy has become too sanctions dependent. There is a need to create and use alternative Congressional foreign policy instruments, a recommendation echoed by Lauter in his recent study on Congressional foreign policy preferences. The Senator recently introduced the European Energy Security and Diversification Act to finance energy infrastructure in Europe as a means to promote independence from Russia. He also pointed to the need to fund fragile democracies in the region.
Trump’s distancing the US from its NATO allies should be seen as part of a general trend towards isolationism and nationalism, in contrast to French President Macron’s vision for multilateralism and internationalism to solve global problems. Trump’s America First message still resonates with large swaths of the country, prompting Murphy to state that until we fix our domestic politics and economy, politicians will be able to sell Trump’s message in regions that have seen losses in jobs such as manufacturing.
While Reinsch pointed out that trade is low on the average voter’s motivations, Murphy underlined the connection between global institutions/alliances and the strength of the American economy and jobs. Trump’s threatening posture towards NATO does not exist in an economic vacuum. Macron has been urging Europe to become more militarily and technologically autonomous, in part by favoring European defense contractors over American ones, in response to Trump’s criticism of NATO. The steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on the EU make the situation worse.
The political divide between skeptics and supporters of liberalized international trade rests more within parties than between them, according to Reinsch and Lauter’s recent studies. Lauter’s study of the pre-election Congress’ foreign policy preferences found that Congress was fairly internationalist, with Reinsch elaborating that trade was less a partisan issue and more a regional one. The coasts tend to be pro-trade while skeptics dominate the Midwest, as demonstrated in the mixed reactions to Trump’s tariffs on the EU.
A post-election survey of incoming Democrats looked at their public statements on the issue. Twenty-four of fifty-five surveyed said nothing about trade following the election. Twenty-one made pro-trade statements, and eight anti-trade statements. While Democrats may hold the USMCA (the NAFTA replacement) hostage for political reasons, Reinsch predicted that the new Congress will include many pro-trade representatives. It is too soon to write a general obituary for trade agreements.
China is the regional challenge that will likely continue to enjoy bipartisan support, evidenced in the reaction to the Administration’s 301 report on China. The question will be how this is handled moving forward in light of Trump’s relationship with the WTO. While he has rejected appointments of new judges for its dispute appellate body and is willing to go beyond the WTO to achieve policy goals, Reinsch emphasized that the Europeans and Japanese want to address concerns over China within the context of the WTO.
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