Tag: Tunisia

Difficult to demonstrate, but obvious

Posted in Uncategorized - August 11, 2014 - 0 Comment

Three years ago, a poor Tunisian fruit vendor doused himself with gasoline, and set himself on fire. His death ignited a revolution that would spread to the rest of the Middle East in what came to be known as the Arab Spring.

Today, the initial optimism of the Arab revolutions has given way to despair. Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, is perhaps the last bastion of democracy in region. Last Tuesday at the Atlantic Council, Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki said that his country must succeed for the sake of “the entire Arab world.”

The country is not as island, and will not succeed in the face of regional instability. With elections scheduled before the end of the year, Marzouki claimed that Tunisia’s political crisis is in the past. A much more significant problem is the looming regional security catastrophe. Young Tunisians have trained with radical Islamist groups in Syria, Mali, and Libya. They threaten to undermine Tunisia’s budding democracy.  Tunisians must choose between democracy and extremist political Islam.

The country also faces an impending economic crisis. The unemployment rate is over 15%, with more than 40% of those under 25 searching for work. Young people thought the revolution would solve everything, but democracy is not the panacea many had hoped for. Many are wistful for the era of ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, when unemployment was lower. While the economic machine has stagnated, it is not beyond repair. Marzouki lauded the US loan guarantee program, and asked the IMF to remain patient. They must understand that “we are a fragile society,” and cannot expect immediate implementation of structural adjustment programs.

Tunisia is also facing heightened levels of corruption. The post-revolutionary state is weaker than it was under Ben-Ali (as is often the case after a revolution), and thus levels of corruption will be temporarily higher. However, corruption and unemployment are not insurmountable problems. A stable government can tackle all these issues. Unfortunately, the current government is powerless to do anything, because of the current Prime Minister’s lame duck status.

Marzouki was critical of America’s tepid support for democratic movements in the Arab world. “We didn’t have the support that we expected from the West,” who supported dictatorships because it was considered the most stable alternative. He warned that, in the absence of robust support for Tunisia, “You can say goodbye to democracy in the Arab World” for centuries to come.

He said Tunisia needs helicopters, night vision goggles, and communications equipment. The country’s anemic army is facing well-trained, well-armed terrorists. Ben Ali, who sought to prevent the army from becoming too powerful, neglected the Tunisian military. The next three months will be especially perilous, “the most dangerous in our history,” because of the upcoming elections. Terrorists, he said, see this as their last opportunity to upend Tunisia’s fragile democracy.

The Tunisian model is based on the idea that you cannot have national consensus without including moderate Islamists and secularists. Radical Islamism must not be conflated with all Islamist movements. Muslims fall along a spectrum, and the moderate end of the spectrum must be included in the government. The problem with most terrorists is not Islamism per se—it’s extremism.

As a secularist, he said that he was “extremely satisfied” with his government’s relationship with the ruling Islamist Ennahda party. They play by the rules of the game. Ultimately, it is nonsense to believe that any single group in the Middle East can rule alone.

Tunisia bears the heavy burden of being the only successful democracy in the Middle East. It could play the role that Poland did in Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. But Tunisia cannot be an island of democracy amidst a sea of chaos and tyranny.

When asked if he had any advice for Egypt, the President demurred, saying, “I do not want to start a diplomatic crisis.” Marzouki did, however, have a message for the Arab world: not all Islamists are created equal. Governments cannot exclude moderates from the political process. The choice is between an inclusive government and unending civil war. “It is difficult to demonstrate, but it’s obvious.”

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Peace picks August 4-8

Posted in Uncategorized - August 4, 2014 - 0 Comment
  1. Morocco’s Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa Monday, August 4 | 9:30 am – 11:00 am Atlantic Council of the United States; 1030 15th Street, NW, Twelfth Floor, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND H.E. Moulay Hafid Elalamy, Mohamed El Kettani, Hajji, and Nabil Habayeb will discuss how Morocco has emerged not only as a significant US political and strategic partner in Africa, but also as an attractive portal for investment and business headed to the continent. They will discuss US interests and the opportunities to deepen economic and commercial cooperation with Morocco and other African countries.
  2. Tunisia’s Democratic Successes: A Conversation with the President of Tunisia Tuesday, August 5 | 11:00 am – 12:15 pm Atlantic Council of the United States; 1030 15th Street, NW, Twelfth Floor, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND With both presidential and parliamentary elections due late this year, Tunisia once again faces imminent milestones in its political history. Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki will join the Atlantic Council’s Hariri Center and Africa Center for an exclusive engagement to discuss successes to date and how the country can address pressing economic and security challenges as its democratic transition continues.
  3. The Gaza Crisis: No Way Out? Policy Options and Regional Implications Tuesday, August 5 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND The Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a discussion examining the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the U.S. handling of the crisis, and the regional implications. Brookings Vice President for Foreign Policy and former U.S. Special Envoy to the Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations Martin Indyk will share his observations and insights. He will be joined by fellows Natan Sachs and Khaled Elgindy, a former adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team.
  4. Putting the South Caucasus in Perspective Tuesday, August 5 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have been independent states for more than 23 years. Although geographically contiguous, they differ in language, religion, and political and security orientation. How is each country faring in state building, developing democracy, and improving economic performance?  Two prominent academic experts of the South Caucasus, Professors Ronald Suny and Stephen Jones, will discuss the historical experience and current developments of the region.
  5. Overcoming Obstacles to Doing Business in Sub-Saharan Africa Wednesday, August 6 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm Atlantic Council of the United States; 1030 15th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND In the context of the inaugural US-Africa Leaders Summit, the Atlantic Council’s will launch a new study about barriers to doing business in sub-Saharan Africa and how they can be overcome. Visiting Fellow Aubrey Hruby will discuss the inadequate infrastructure, lack of market data, and poor policy implementation in Africa. The publication will also focus on innovative solutions for surmounting such obstacles and how companies who have successfully entered African markets can provide lessons learned for future investors.
  6. Loved? Liked? Respected? The Success and Failure of U.S. Public Diplomacy Wednesday, August 6 | 6:00 pm – 8:00 pm Washington Institute-Near East; 1828 L Street, NW, #1050, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND The Washington Institute will host a debate on the value of U.S. public diplomacy. It will analyze the role of public diplomacy in the Middle East with particular attention to the crisis in Gaza, the ISIS campaign in Iraq, the ongoing conflict in Syria, and escalating terrorist threats in the region. Institute’s Executive Director Robert Satloff will stand off against the former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, James Jeffrey in a debate moderated by Viola Gienger of the United States Institute of Peace.
  7. Statesmen’s Forum: His Excellency Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, President of the Republic of Mali Thursday, August 7 | 9:00 am – 10:15 am Center for Strategic and International Studies; 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita of Mali will discuss the progress and challenges of Mali’s post-crisis recovery, as well as the broader regional prospects for security, development, and good governance in the Sahel region. He will share his perspective on the ongoing peace process and the role that neighboring countries and the U.S. government can play in tackling insecurity and fostering reconciliation.
  8. President Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso Thursday, August 7 | 5:00 pm National Press Club, 13th Floor; 529 14th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND President Blaise Compaore will give his assessment of the results of the US-Africa Leaders Summit taking place in Washington, D.C. from August 5th to 6th. He also plans to speak on his role as a regional mediator to resolve conflicts in West Africa.
  9. A Batkin International Leaders Forum with the President of Somalia Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Friday, August 8 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am Service Employees International Union; 1800 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND His Excellency Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, president of the Federal Republic of Somalia, will explore the future of democracy in Somalia and its many challenges and promises. Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director for Foreign Policy at Brookings, will hold a question and answer session with the president.
  10. Beyond North Waziristan Friday, August 8 | 10:30 am – 12:00 pm Atlantic Council of the United States; 1030 15th Street, NW, Twelfth Floor, Washington, D.C. REGISTER TO ATTEND As the Pakistani army wages a long-awaited operation, Zarb-e-Azb, against militant sanctuaries in North Waziristan, there are questions about how effectively it confronts the long-term challenge of terrorism in the region. How is the North Waziristan operation impacting militant groups operating in the region, and the overall stability of Pakistan? Can the United States, Afghanistan, and Pakistan work together to address sanctuaries for insurgents on both sides of the border? Major Ikram Sehgal and Hassan Abbas will highlight the progress, pitfalls, and implications of Pakistan’s strategy in North Waziristan.
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The Muslim Brotherhood’s bleak future

Posted in Uncategorized - July 18, 2014 - 0 Comment

The Muslim Brotherhood experienced its fall from grace in Egypt just one year ago with President Morsi’s removal. The once highly organized and hierarchical party is now shattered, bringing into question the future of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, as well as the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and the Tunisian Ennahda party. On Monday, the Middle East Institute hosted “The Muslim Brotherhood: Between the Path of Ennahda and the Threat of the Islamic State” with panelists Alison Pargeter, Hassan Mneimneh, and Eric Trager. They came to a consensus that the Muslim Brotherhood has weakened, especially in Egypt, and its strategy has become disjointed. It is currently unlikely to succeed in gaining power either in Egypt or in Syria.

The future of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is questionable after the violent clashes and unprecedented crackdown this past year. Pargeter, author of The Muslim Brotherhood: From Opposition to Power, said that the party has faced significant challenges over the past twelve months in internalizing its overthrow and moving forward to regain legitimacy. It has had to face depleted finances, party leader arrests, and distrust from the public.

The current strategy has been to act defensively and shift blame away from the Brotherhood. The discourse of self-preservation has been far from successful. The international community has moved on—Sisi has taken power and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is crippled. It is trying to give the impression that the fight is still going on, but is it has not found a viable path back to political power.

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has always struggled in articulating its ideology. It is now more important than ever, as the future of the party depends on institutional reform and transparency. A genuine change in political culture will be necessary if the Brotherhood is ever to gain power again. The cycle of competition between the military and political Islam will need to change if Egypt is to ever move forward, which Pargeter concluded could ultimately take more than a decade.

Trager, Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, discussed the role and future of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. The party was founded in 1946 and had a tumultuous history throughout the past several decades. It was exiled in 1982 after a violent uprising, which ultimately forced the leadership to reshape its chain of command and membership strategy.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has now had to focus entirely on organizational maintenance, such as funding livelihoods and housing for its members. It is still a wealthy organization but has become very weak within Syria since its exile. It faces significant long-term challenges and is preoccupied with maintenance rather than politics. The organization will have to gain significant support within Syria if it is to ever acquire political power.

Mneimneh, Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said  that Tunisians don’t want what happened in Egypt and Syria to play out in their countries. Ennahda has been the only true success story among the three. It is making strides towards democratic practice.

The Ennahda leader has spoken with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood regarding how to seek compromise. There ultimately needs to be an acceptance of diversity and inclusivity in Egypt rather than focusing on one party at the exclusion of the others. Ennahda is working to break the three main characteristics of politics in the region:  paternalism, tribalism and elitism. It aims at broader pariticipation in government. This approach has proven far more successful than the Muslim Brotherhood’s approach in Egypt or Syria.

The Muslim Brotherhood has had a tumultuous few years and it is unlikely that it will gain power in Egypt or Syria anytime soon.  It is preoccupied with its own survival. With no coherent strategy, there isn’t much hope for the Egyptian and Syrian branches moving forward.

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Promote the vote

Posted in Uncategorized - June 22, 2014 - 0 Comment

With Tunisia’s presidential and parliamentary elections approaching in the fall, the Middle East Institute and the International Republican Institute (IRI) held a discussion “Brick by Brick: How Tunisians Are Laying the Foundation for Democracy” regarding the upcoming democratic transition. Yassine Brahim, President of the Afek Tunis Party, Meriem Bourguiba, Executive Committee of the Afek Tunis Party, and Scott Mastic, Regional Director at IRI, came together to discuss the elections and the challenges combatting voter apathy.

Tunisia is currently viewed as a beacon of stability within the Middle East. After successfully adopting a new constitution this year, Tunisians enjoy wide political rights and freedoms that range from freedom of belief to free speech. With elections around the corner, political parties are racing to garner support throughout the country.

However, Tunisians are angered by the economic stagnation and inadequate government response, fostering a sense of distrust and frustration towards political parties.  Fifty per cent of Tunisians believe that political parties are not interested in the general population, while 57% think that parties are only interested in power and personal growth. Thus, there is a great need to connect with everyday Tunisians to increase voter turnout and combat negative views of parties.

Political parties must look at the demographics behind the recent levels of voter apathy. Meriem Bourguiba noted that Tunisian youth currently present a great challenge in terms of political support due to the high unemployment rate and instability during Ben Ali’s regime. Approximately 95% of young Tunisians want to cross the Mediterranean in search of better opportunities in Europe. However, Bourguiba emphasized, “we can’t jump ship yet—we need to instill good will and dreams back into the youth.” Tunisia must search within civil society for outlets to truly impact youth and their education in order to get them out to the polls and vote.

It is also important that Tunisian women are empowered and see the significance in exercising their vote. Political parties should take a direct approach by talking with women in their homes and social settings in order to discourage female voter apathy. Women must be shown that they are active participants in government and that their voices will be heard. They are contributing members of this newly developing system. It is imperative that they have opportunities and resources appropriate to their best qualities.

Because of political indifference, great preparation and direct appeals to different facets of the population are necessary. Scott Mastic stressed that parties must convey progressive, new ideas, but also show a collective interest in Tunisia regardless of differing opinions.

The Afek Tunis party is preparing for the upcoming elections this fall, but it continues to struggle with voter apathy across a wide range of constituents. It is a liberal, free-market party that is currently ranked sixth in the polls. According to Afek Tunis President Yassine Brahim, it is a challenging task to address the many political and institutional issues within the country, even if Tunisia has progressed a great deal over the past several years.

Brahim advocated fundamental reforms to resolve the pressing social and economic issues the country suffers from. It is necessary to liberalize the economy without discrimination and make incentives for people to create businesses. Leaders of political parties should encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, while also halting the bureaucratic selectiveness of the current economy. There should be direct communication with voters and great efforts throughout both the presidential and parliamentary elections to increase voter turnout.

Despite the challenges of voter apathy, Tunisia is advancing peacefully and transitioning towards democracy. Power lies in the hands of the people, provided they go to the polls and participate in the rebuilding of their country.

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Survey says

Posted in Uncategorized - June 12, 2014 - 0 Comment

Tuesday Jay Leveton presented the results of the 2014 ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller survey at the American Security Project.  It focuses on Arab youth perspectives, concerns and aspirations throughout the region. The survey consisted of 3,500 face-to-face interviews conducted over the past year across sixteen countries in the Middle East. The sample was split equally between males and females ranging from 18 to 24 years old. Leveton highlighted the top ten findings:

  1. Arab youth are embracing modern values. 46% of Arab youth believe that traditional values are outdated and belong in the past. This number has risen from only 17% in 2011, demonstrating a shift away from traditional values. This change is also reflected in the decreasing influence of parents, family, and religion on Arab youth.
  2. They remain confident in their national government’s abilities. Arab youth show approximately 60% confidence in the government’s ability to address living standards, economic stability, war, unemployment and terrorism. There is great surprise in this confidence, specifically in countries that have suffered from economic hardship or political instability following the Arab Spring. Approval of the impact of the Arab Spring has declined from 72% in 2012 to 54% in 2014, most likely due to the continuous civil unrest and political instability in countries such as Egypt and Syria.
  3. They are increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living and unemployment. 63% of Arab youth are concerned about growing living expenses, while 42% expressed significant worry over unemployment. Approximately half are apprehensive about their own national economy. However, 55% of youth in countries outside of the GCC are concerned about unemployment, while only 39% within the GCC. This is due to the GCC’s proven ability to assist in job creation, while countries in North Africa and the Levant struggle with their youth unemployment rates.
  4. Arab youth believe that the biggest obstacle in the Middle East is civil unrest. 55% believe that the recent uprisings and instability are the greatest impediments to the advancement of the region. 38% believe that the lack of democracy is the greatest issue, while some believe it is the threat of terrorism.
  5. They are increasingly looking towards entrepreneurship as a source of opportunity. 67% feel that the younger generation is more likely to start a business than in previous generations. This entrepreneurial spirit hints at the perceived opportunities in starting one’s own business, specifically in response to some governments’ inability to provide jobs for their youth.
  6. The country that the younger Arab generation would most like to live in is the United Arab Emirates. 39% said that the UAE is the ideal country they would move to, while 21% said the United States, and 14% said Saudi Arabia. The UAE is the model country for Arab youth in terms of the right balance of governmental responsibility, national economy, foreign relations, etc. The United States has remained high in favor in Arab youth perspectives.
  7. Arab youth see their country’s biggest allies to be Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 36% believe that Saudi Arabia is their country’s biggest ally and 33% said the UAE. This was followed by Qatar, Kuwait, and lastly the United States, which marks a shift away from Western countries as the largest allies.
  8. They have a new concern for obesity and rising health issues. Over the past year, there has been a sharp increase in the percentage of youth concerned about obesity from 12% in 2013 to 26% in 2014. An increasing number of the younger generation is worried about diabetes, cancer and heart disease. Among all countries, 52% of youth feel as though the healthcare in their country has remained the same over the past year, while 34% believe that it has improved.
  9. They believe that the government should subsidize energy costs and aren’t too concerned about climate change. 74% believe that energy, electricity, and transport fuel should be subsidized by the government. This comes from the rising concern about the cost of living in each respective country. While this is the greatest worry among youth, concern for climate change and the environment is a very low priority at only 6%.
  10. There has been a great increase in daily news consumption, specifically through online media and social networking sites. Television has been the most popular source of news for the sixth year in a row with 75% of Arab youth using it as their most frequent news source. However, a declining number of youth see the television as the most trusted source of news– 39% now view social media as the most reliable source, rising from 22% in 2013.

While the 2014 survey ranges across sixteen countries that vary in political, economic, and social characteristics, there is nonetheless a great sense of continuity in the hopes, concerns, and priorities of Arab youth in the region.

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There is more thankless work to be done

Posted in Uncategorized - May 14, 2014 - 0 Comment

Lakhtar Brahimi, the UN special envoy for Syria during the better part of the last two years, resigned yesterday, with appropriate apologies to the Syrian people.  In many obvious senses, the UN has been a colossal failure in Syria:

  • it has failed to bring about a political settlement between the regime and its opposition,
  • it has not prevented 150,000 deaths and millions of people displaced,
  • it hasn’t even managed more than local ceasefires,
  • it delivers humanitarian aid mostly behind regime lines, and
  • it has been unable to get concerted regional or great power action to end the war.

But looked at from a different angle it has also managed to do quite well:  even before Brahimi’s appointment, it put forward a plan for an end to the fighting, it deployed international monitors, it withdrew them when it became apparent they weren’t doing any good, it managed two Geneva conferences (the first in 2012 at least produced a joint US/Russian plan and the second got the warring parties to the same table), it has helped managed the process of eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons, it has documented human rights abuses, and it has provided absolutely vital humanitarian assistance to large numbers of vulnerable civilians.

The UN is only as good as its member states allow it to be.  It is not a miracle worker.  But it is also not finished yet, even if Brahimi deservedly wants to withdraw.

So what should it do next?  Given the failure of the Geneva 2 talks, and the apparent fruitlessness of further efforts along those lines, what should the UN and its specialized agencies do to alleviate suffering, protect civilians, increase the odds of an eventual political settlement (or hasten its arrival) and reduce the likelihood of a burdgeoning conflict that engulfs Lebanon, Iraq and maybe even Turkey and Jordan?

There are several options, not mutually exclusive:

  1. Deliver 360 degree aid:  The bulk of UN humanitarian assistance has gone people in need in regime-controlled territory.  The UN agencies could join many nongovernmental organizations in providing ample humanitarian assistance across borders from Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, thus enabling it to deliver more to rebel-held areas.
  2. Facilitate regional dialogue:  While they have embassies in each others’ capitals, the Saudis and Iranians are barely on speaking terms and conducting a proxy war in Syria; refocusing them on common interests like countering violent extremists and maintaining state structures in the Levant could improve the situation.  It is a good sign that the Saudis yesterday invited the Iranian foreign minister for a visit.
  3. Begin planning for post-war reconstruction and transition:  When the war ends, as it inevitably will, the UN will be called upon to support reconstruction; it should be thinking about that now, helping to negotiate local ceasefires where possible and to build the local governing structures and civil society that can support the reconstruction process.  Efforts of this sort are vital to improving the prospects for a democratic transition in Syria.
  4. Provide a moral compass:  the UN could do more to publicize war crimes and crimes against humanity, it could take a strong position against the presidential “election” Assad is planning to conduct under thoroughly unfair and unfree conditions June 3, it could insist more loudly on protection of civilians and humanitarian access, it could get religious leaders to insist on observance of the laws of war.
  5. Cut off regime and terrorist financing: The sanctions on the Syrian regime are not nearly as tight as they might be, and terrorist organizations like ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) as well as Jabhat al Nusra are still receiving international funds as well as arms and other assistance from abroad.  A more concerted effort to reduce the availability of resources could help de-escalate the conflict and reduce the harm to civilians.

There are arguments against all these propositions.  The UN generally requires the permission of the host country to deliver aid from any direction.  The regime could conceivably boot the UN from Damascus if it tries without permission.  It is not easy for the UN to get the Saudis talking, as they tend to be both secretive and hierarchical.  Local level reconstruction efforts to establish a minimum of governance and civil society require a capillary international presence in rebel-held areas, where security is dicey.  He who holds a moral compass will not always be welcomed by those–on both sides of the war–who don’t.

But the UN is a reflection of ourselves.  If we want these things done, the organization will find at least some people and means to get them done.  The soft-spoken and precise Brahimi, well-suited to the high political level he has been dealing at, would not have necessarily been the best person for these tasks.   The US needs to lead an effort to ensure that Brahimi’s departure does not end the UN’s focus on Syria.  There is more thankless work to be done.

 

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