Tag: Turkey
Stevenson’s army, October 17
– The national security adviser disagrees with Gen. Milley. Are tweets real policy?
– A federal judge asks the same question and gets confused reply.
–Turkey breaks the law.
Administration rejects Putin call for extension of New START. [By the way, as I read Article XIV of the treaty, an extension will not require a vote by the Senate.]
– NYT notes how similar the cultural splits over face masks look like the 1980s fights over mandatory vehicle seatbelts.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 14
Bloomberg says Trump plans to pull US troops from Somalia.
FP says Israel is expanding settlements.
WTO says Europe can impose $4 Billion in tariffs because of Boeing subsidies.
NYT has table showing when absentee ballots will be counted by states.
FP says China’s money didn’t buy love in Australia.
Wired has big piece on Gen. Nakasone.
Some crazies in Portland pulled down a statue of Abraham Lincoln on Monday, David Van Drehle explains how uncalled for that was.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Civilians at risk, sovereignty is the objective
Crisis Group’s reporting on the military and diplomatic situation in Nagorno-Karabakh seems to me on the mark. Azerbaijan has the advantage and is pressing it with Turkish assistance and Israeli weapons, despite the mountainous topography, impending winter, and Russia’s alliance with Armenia.
The only real questions are how far Baku and Yerevan are willing and able to go. Will Baku stop short of completely retaking its sovereign territory, or try to go all the way to Stepanakert and even the Armenian border? Will Yerevan throw its main forces into the fight, with or without Russian support?
The implications for civilians could be dramatic. Something like 145,000 people live in Nagorno-Karabakh, almost entirely Armenians at this point. They are unlikely to stick around if Baku presses forward. They might even be called out by Armenia, which regards them as its citizens, if Yerevan decides to put its forces into the fight, in order to clear the battlespace. Self-cleansing of this sort is common. It could well lead to a dramatic demographic shift if Baku were to prevail.
Azerbaijan, a secular autocracy whose population is overwhelmingly Muslim, has long nurtured the ambition of retaking all of its sovereign territory. Baku isn’t likely to be too careful about its wartime obligations to Armenian civilians. It views the Nagorno-Karabakhis and the secessionist republic they have supported for three decades as the enemy, not least because they ethnically cleansed Azerbaijanis in past conflicts. The difference this time is that Baku is far stronger than it was even at the time of the last major clash in 2016.
Whether Azerbaijan is strong enough this time around to re-establish its internationally recognized sovereignty is not yet clear. Few details are coming from the conflict zone. But Baku’s current lack of interest in a ceasefire and Yerevan’s desire for one tell us what we need to know about how the clashes are going. Let’s hope however that Armenian civilians do not end up paying a high price for the failure of negotiations and compromise all these years.
Here is what Azerbaijani President Aliyev has to say. And here is Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan’s version.
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Stevenson’s army, September 30
After last night’s dispiriting display of socially-distanced mud wrestling, let’s turn to something completely different.
Two bipartisan congressional reports on important national security matters: a House panel on future defense and a task force report on arms control.
WSJ reports how China is taking control of various international organizations.
A retired Navy captain writes about Chinese actions in the Taiwan strait.
US Navy has moved ship to help Greece against Turkey.
SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel preview their new book about military adaptation.
Russian Duma goes remote because of Covid infections.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 28
Politico excerpts a chapter from the new biography of Jim Baker, with a clever “7 rules for running Washington.”
WaPo says US has threatened to leave the embassy in Baghdad.
WaPo also reports on the Turkish navy’s new “Blue Homeland” plans.
Lawfare piece argues Iran has a clever gray zone strategy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No Nobel Prize
Amy Hawthorne, who knows more about the Middle East than Jared Kushner will ever learn, tweeted yesterday:
Amy W. Hawthorne@awhawthTo state the obvious, the “peace in the Middle East” theme touted by Trump and Kushner re UAE-Israel agreement is disconnected from reality given that the 2 countries never fought a war and the agreement does nothing to end today’s actual Middle East wars
just details I guess
But maybe a bit more explication is required, especially in response to the right-wing hoopla about getting a Nobel Prize for their dear leader.
As Amy suggests, the agreement between Israel and the Emirates has nothing to do directly with any past or current conflict in the Middle East. There is no history between them of bombardment, invasion, expulsion, displacement, or occupation.* The UAE has participated directly or through proxies in wars in Yemen, Syria, and Libya, but those have little or nothing to do with Israel.
Kushner, who designed Trump’s still-born proposal for peace with the Palestinians, likes to pretend that the agreement with the UAE will advance that prospect. It is more likely to dim it. It weakens and divides Palestinian support in the Arab world at a time when Israel is already so strong it feels no real pressure to negotiate. While the UAE extracted suspension of Israel’s plans to annex Palestinian land, that provision is temporary. Kushner, a strong supporter of Israelis settlements in the West Bank intended to block formation of a contiguous and viable Palestinian state, is interested in Palestinian surrender to a one-state solution with unequal rights. That won’t do anything for Middle East peace.
Trump’s presidency has significantly worsened prospects not only for peace between Israelis and Palestinians but also between Arab states and Iran. His withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal allowed Iran to enrich much more uranium, putting it within far less than a year of having the fissile materials required to build a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia is likewise moving towards nuclear weapons, as is Turkey. We face the real prospect of a nuclear arms race among the three most powerful countries in the Middle East, unleashed by a President who thought he could bring the Iranians to heel with sanctions. That effort has failed.
We could review a few more non-contributions to peace in the Middle East:
- arms sold to both the Emirates and Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen,
- withdrawal of US troops from eastern Syria that undermined America’s Kurdish allies,
- greenlighting of Turkey’s expansion across its southern border to create a buffer zone in northern Syria,
- support for the most brutal military dictatorship Egypt has ever seen,
- flirting with would-be autocrat General Haftar in Libya and providing only erratic rhetorical support to the internationally recognized government.
President Trump’s best bid for contributing to peace is in Afghanistan, which I suppose is “greater” Middle East. Unable to defeat the Taliban, the Trump Administration gave Special Envoy Khalilzad the job of getting the US out. He reached an agreement with the Taliban for US withdrawal as well as a commitment to intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government. Trump may well boast about the US withdrawal, but he has to be careful not to draw attention to the fact that it is only vaguely conditions-based and constitutes a retreat from America’s longest war without anything like victory. Zal has made lemonade from lemons, but there is not much sweetener available and the intra-Afghan talks, as well as the fighting, are likely to go on for a long time.
President Obama left the Middle East in bad shape. President Trump has managed to make things worse. As of a year ago, he had actually increased the number of US troops deployed in the region. It is certainly arguable that the former didn’t deserve the Nobel Prize he got. The latter would deserve it far less. Of course the Norwegian prize committee knows that and won’t be tempted. Trump’s egotistical neediness to match the achievements of the black president is pitiful, not praiseworthy.
*PS: the same goes for Bahrain.
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