Tag: Turkey
Stevenson’s army, May 22
I’ve told the class that Congress doesn’t make strategy but often outsources that task to the executive branch. Last year in the NDAA Congress asked for a China strategy. Yesterday, the WH sent it to Congress. I haven’t read it yet — 16 single-spaced pages, after all — but China hawk Josh Rogin likes it.
Heritage Foundation says China’s buildings in Africa are likely bugged.
Lawfare writers have some valuable suggestions on how to create a cybersecurity czar.
Ed Luce of the FT sees Pompeo as “Trump’s Baghdad Bob.” NYT sees Pompeo’s personal strategy to become president as feature of his secretaryship.
NYT says Turkey is winning in Libya.
WSJ says doctors on the TR urged evacuation before Crozier message.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, April 20
– Foreign powers are testing US defenses, Hill reports.
– Russia seems willing to broaden arms control agenda.
-The domestic politics of fighting the pandemic — in Turkey.
– Asia sees second wave of infections.
– Feel good moment: Atlantic has a bunch of spectacular photos of my home state of Colorado. I felt better seeing them and hope you do, too.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Asymmetric warfare and the great powers
I spoke last night at the Alexander Hamilton Society at Johns Hopkins’ Homewood campus. Here is what I said:
I have two points to make: the first concerns proxy forces, which are becoming the rule rather than the exception; the second concerns asymmetric or hybrid warfare, which is taking on new guises. But none of it is really new—warriors have always sought to strike an enemy where he is weak and to remove their own forces from danger.
Increased use of proxy military forces to enable great powers to duel with each other without engaging directly with their own military forces is already happening in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Ukraine. Iranian-trained and equipped militias, Turkey’s Turkoman and Islamist allies, America’s Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Lebanese Hizbollah, the Houthis, Haftar’s forces, and Russia’s mercenaries and Ukrainian proxies are playing central roles in contests that the U.S. or its Gulf allies are engaged in, mostly as adversaries against Russia or Iran.
In an era of great power competition, the inclination will be not to worry too much about our own proxies’ internal governance or abuse of human rights any more than we did during the Cold War. Realists and would-be autocrats will see that as idealistic claptrap. But governance matters to some of us. Let me remind you of what Alexander Hamilton said, in a strikingly different context, in the Federalist Papers:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
It is hard to support Ukraine to win a military confrontation with Russia if Ukraine is a kleptocracy, which is why it was right for Joe Biden to back firing of a corrupt prosecutor and wrong for the Trump Administration to regret his firing, while still claiming to be against corruption. It is also hard to support UAE and Saudi forces that have committed crimes of war in Yemen, or switch to support Khalifa Haftar in Libya or Bashar al Assad in Syria. Domestic and international support for odious allies is difficult to muster. One of the reasons the Americans have backed the Syrian Democratic Forces is the Kurds’ relatively decent governance, but of course we ignore their PKK credentials and the PKK’s terrorist acts inside Turkey.
Let me turn to asymmetric warfare. Adversaries have agency. Asymmetric warfare is the product of their ingenuity. America is hard to fight on land or sea. Since the purpose of warfare is political, better to fight it where expensive armor and submarines count for less: among the people.
War amongst the people is taking on new meaning with the rise of geopolitical challengers. In Bosnia and Kosovo, we saw the use of human shields, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. We are now seeing the weaponizing of masses of people on a giant scale: Assad’s effort to drive one million IDPs from Idlib to the Turkish border and beyond with Russian backing is intended to rid his territory of people he thinks are opponents and break Turkey’s will in occupying parts of Syria. Human shields have become human spears. Turkey is using people as well, though in a less deadly way: by allowing refugees to cross into Greece, it is pressuring the Europe Union for more humanitarian assistance.
The Russian satellite states South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia as well as Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine likewise aim at political results: to make the parent states ungovernable and block their progress towards the West.
Hybrid warfare using other means other than population movements and puppet states is also on the rise. In the Balkans, the Russians are aiming at destabilization without spending much. They’ve tried assassination, cyberattacks, mass mobilization, illicit political financing, and social media. The U.S. is not above using all those tools as well. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Stuxnet, the color revolutions, financing of NGOs and political training, and the State Department’s more than 120 acknowledged Twitter accounts (not to mention the covert ones) may look to you and me like good causes, but they look like potent weapons to America’s adversaries.
We may not be headed into a Cold War with any single adversary, but we are certainly heading towards a geopolitical competition that will entail use of all the means available in an environment of shifting alliances and uncertain outcomes.
But in the end, it may not be state adversaries that bring us down via proxies, weaponizing people, and hybrid warfare. Something much smaller may put on display our own inadequate government services. It shouldn’t escape notice that Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei, and Donald Trump are all at risk from the political and economic consequences of a virus. Defending populations from epidemics is not a new governance requirement, but rather a longstanding one. This, too, is war amongst the people, who might just demand some minimal competence and truthfulness in their governance.
Remember, again, Hamilton:
Vigor of government is essential to the security of liberty.
Only military means
As the humanitarian crisis in Idlib seems to me that biggest on earth right now (a million or more civilians displaced and under constant attack in a war zone), I reproduce below the Turkish/Russian ceasefire agreement, provided by Bassam Barabandi.
What is striking here is how mendacious the preamble is. While the ceasefire and security corridor established by this agreement are highly desirable, virtually every word of the preamble is false or based on false premises. Bashar al Assad is intent on chasing people out of Idlib because he can’t control the province so long as they remain. While this agreement may hold briefly, there is every reason to believe he will renew the assault and that the Russians and Iranians will support him every inch of the way up to the Turkish border, no matter the humanitarian consequences, unless stopped from doing so by military means.
Additional Protocol to the Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area
The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred to as the Parties),
Recalling the Memorandum on the Creation of De‑Escalation Areas in the Syrian Arab Republic as of May 4, 2017 and Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the Idlib De-Escalation Area as of September 17, 2018.
Reaffirming their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic.
Reaffirming their determination to combat all forms of terrorism, and to eliminate all terrorist groups in Syria as designated by the UNSC, while agreeing that targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure cannot be justified under any pretext,
Highlighting that there can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict and that it can only be resolved through Syrian-led and Syrian-owned, UN facilitated political process in line with the UNSCR 2254,
Stressing the importance of prevention of further deterioration of humanitarian situation, protection of civilians and ensuring humanitarian assistance to all Syrians in need without preconditions and discrimination as well as prevention of displacement of people and facilitation of safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their original places of residence in Syria;
Have agreed as follows,
1- Cease all military actions along the line of contact in the Idlib de-escalation area starting from 00:01 of March 6, 2020.
2- A security corridor will be established 6 km deep to the north and 6 km deep to the south from highway M4. Specific parameters of the functioning of the security corridor will be agreed between the Defense Ministries of the Turkish Republicand the Russian Federation within 7 days.
3- On March 15, 2020, joint Turkish-Russian patrolling will begin along highway M4 from the settlement of Trumba (2 km to the west of Saraqib) to the settlement of Ain-Al-Havr.
This additional protocol enters into force from the moment of signing.
Done in Moscow on 5 March, 2020 in three copies, in the Turkish, Russian and English languages, all texts having equal legal force.
Signatures:
For Republic of Turkey For Russian Federation
Stevenson’s army, March 3
-Politico reports State-Defense clash over Patriots to Turkey.
– George Packer describes how Trump has subdued the Deep State, targeting and humiliating career professionals in State and Justice.
-SecState Pompeo says Congress will be informed of secret agreements on Afghanistan.
-Here’s the transcript of his TV interview on the topic.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Stevenson’s army, March 2
– The Afghan peace deal may break down over prisoner exchanges.
– The Russo-Turkish understanding over Syria is breaking down. And Greece is sending troops to its border.
– The effort to find a new Iraqi premier has broken down.
-North Korea’s missile test moratorium has ended.
– A federal judge has ruled that Ken Cuccinelli’s acting appoint is illegal under the Vacancy Act — and also that two of his decisions are nullified. That’s a consequence of using Actings improperly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).