Tag: Turkey
Diplomacy for drawdown
Marc Lynch, after describing well the security dilemmas and state fragility that are driving Middle East conflicts, concludes:
US hegemony in the Middle East will never be restored because the region has fundamentally changed. Moving beyond the wars and political failures that followed the Arab uprisings will not be easy. The damage is too deep.
The question is: should Americans worry about that? Marc doesn’t answer that question, but Steven Metz does.
American interests in the Middle East are usually defined along these lines:
- Countering international terrorism
- Ensuring oil and gas can flow without hindrance to world markets
- Supporting friends and allies
- Preventing nuclear proliferation
Steven essentially says the threat of international terrorism is overblown, US energy vulnerability is vastly reduced (“Petroleum will not be weaponized”), and US friends and allies can (mostly) take of themselves. He doesn’t deal with the proliferation issue, but he really doesn’t have to, because he is talking mainly about military commitments. Military action has never been a good option for dealing with nuclear proliferation, since it would provide a very strong incentive for acquiring nuclear weapons.
Steven’s conclusion: the US should withdraw its military from the Middle East and rely instead on “off-shore balancing” to ensure that no rival hegemon is able to control the region and intervene only in the event that one threatens US interests. The savings could be gigantic: RAND estimated that in 2008 12-15% of the Pentagon budget was spent to securing oil from the Persian Gulf.
Washing our hands of the Middle East is an attractive proposition. Unfortunately it is one that President Obama tried, without a great deal of success. President Trump is tempted in the same direction. But withdrawal has left the many of the vacuums that Marc describes so well, generating security dilemmas and military responses that have left Syria, Yemen, and Libya in ruins and erstwhile American friends like Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates at odds and hedging.
It is difficult to see how the United States can withdraw from the Middle East without a focused diplomatic effort to ensure that the region can restore a modicum of stability,or at least remove some of the drivers of instability. Offshore balancing won’t work if there is no balance but only chaos. The Trump Administration is said to be preparing for a Summit to restore some coherence to GCC next month. That makes sense: there will be no serious effort to counter Iran’s behavior in the region so long as Qatar is feuding with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
But the Administration also needs to end its own feuding with Turkey and restore some balance to its policy on Palestine to make it more palatable to Sunni Arab friends. And it needs to reconsider its position on the Iran deal, which threatens to seriously undermine relations with Europe.
So yes, I agree that we should draw down, if not completely out, from the the Middle East. But there is a lot of diplomatic homework required to make that possible. And a very real possibility that the Administration will focus instead on countering Iran, leading it to increase rather than decrease its military commitments in the region.
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Peace picks – August 13 – 19
1. Discussion – Indian Railways and coal: An unsustainable interdependency | Monday, August 13, 2018 | 3:30 pm – 5:00 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Coal is a key part of the equilibrium of Indian Railways since passenger fares don’t cover all the costs. Unfortunately, this equilibrium is at risk. Already the average distance of coal travelled has fallen 30 per cent in five years. Raising coal freight fares disproportionately compared to its distance and volume has led to higher cost of coal delivered and therefore to higher electricity costs for consumers – by approximately 10 paise/kWh across India. This is unsustainable.
Even more worryingly for the equilibrium is the rise of renewable energy and improved efficiency of power plants – these will lead to historical growth of coal transport coming down measurably. Indian Railways business model of “overcharging” coal while keeping passenger fares low could lead to coal (and thus thermal electricity) becoming uncompetitive.
This is a public event. RSVP pkamboj@brookingsindia.org to attend.
Speakers:
Moderator: Rahul Tongia – Fellow, Brookings India
Rakesh Mohan – Distinguished Fellow, Brookings India; former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India; and formerly Chairman, National Transport Development Policy Committee
Vivek Sahai – Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation; and former Chairman, Railway Board
Girish Pillai – Member (Traffic), Railway Board
2. Iran: Protests, Sanctions, and Regime Viability | Wednesday, August 15, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
On August 6, President Trump officially snapped back sanctions on Iran as part of his “Maximum Pressure” campaign on the country. This is the second concrete step taken by the administration this year, following their formal withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May. The restored sanctions prohibit transactions by countries and private entities involving everything from dollar notes and gold to commercial aircraft. The decision to reimpose these sanctions has drawn opposition from Iran and U.S. allies alike.
Given recent protests in the country over economic woes and ineffective government, the sanctions come at a particularly challenging time for Iran. What remains to be seen is whether new economic pressure will prompt Iran to revive its nuclear ambitions or pressure Tehran into renegotiating a nuclear accord.
On August 15, Hudson Institute will host a panel to discuss Iran, the effectiveness of the U.S. “Maximum Pressure” campaign, the regime’s ability to navigate sanctions, and the country’s widening protests. Panelists will include Michael Pregent, Hudson Institute senior fellow; Alireza Nader, an independent Iran scholar; Behnam Ben Taleblu, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Mariam Memarsadeghi, co-founder and co-director of Tavaana.
3. Brazil’s Election Takes Shape | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 10:00 am – 10:45 am | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Note: Conference call dial-in information will be sent to participants two days prior to the event.
Latin America’s largest democracy officially kicks off one of its most consequential presidential contests on August 16. Over 14 candidates are vying for the presidency, with five standouts. How might the campaign take shape in the lead-up to the first round on October 7?
Join us via conference call on the day that the campaign officially begins—Thursday, August 16—for a conversation from 10:00 to 10:45 a.m. EDT, in partnership with the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), on what to look for during the campaign and how Brazil’s next president may tackle some of the key issues necessary for Brazil to enter a new era of growth and stability.
For a preview of our conversation, keep an eye out for Ricardo Sennes’ Spotlight publication, to be launched on August 9, where he dissects the potential implications of political and economic reform, foreign direct investment, and security policies laid out by Jair Bolsonaro, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Geraldo Alckmin, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the PT nominee.
Speakers:
Roberta Braga – Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Ricardo Sennes – Nonresident Senior Brazil Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Co-Founder, Prospectiva Consulting
Roberto Teixeira da Costa – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Henrique Rzezinski – Member, Board of Trustees, Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
4. Turkey Sanctions – Navigating a Historic Bilateral Crisis | Thursday, August 16, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | The Washington Institute for Near East Policy | Register Here
Earlier this month, the Trump administration issued sanctions against Turkey for its continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. Ties between the two governments have been under strain for years, but the latest incident has seemingly touched off the most severe crisis in recent memory, including a plunge in Turkish economic indicators. As the historic dispute unfolds, what are the future prospects and pitfalls for the bilateral relationship?
To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a Policy Forum with Amanda Sloat, Max Hoffman, and Steven Cook, moderated by Institute senior fellow Soner Cagaptay.
Amanda Sloat is a Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe. Previously, she served as deputy assistant secretary for Southern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean affairs at the State Department.
Max Hoffman is the associate director of national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, focusing on Turkey, the Kurdish regions, and U.S. defense policy, among other issues.
Steven Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. An expert on Turkish politics, he has appeared in numerous international media outlets, including as a columnist with Foreign Policy magazine.
This event will be held at The Washington Institute, 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC, 20036. It will also be broadcast live on our website.
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Trump’s Turkey shoot
After weeks of silence and inaction on the issue of Syria, President Trump has finally done something that will affect the outcome of the Syrian civil war. The influence will not be positive.
Using his favorite policy platform – Twitter – Trump announced Friday that as the Turkish Lira “slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar,” the United States will increase tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum. As the New York Times reports, his 50 percent tariff on steel will “effectively [price] Turkish steel out of the American market, which [accounts] for 13 percent of Turkey’s steel exports.”
The run on the Lira, which has been brewing for the past few weeks, is now fully in gear. The self-fulfilling prophecy of foreign-exchange traders selling the Lira before it further loses value, hence depreciating the currency, is in full force. Investors are instead rushing to short the Lira, amplifying the detrimental effect on its value. President Trump boasting about how “strong” the dollar is – which, seeing how uncompetitive American exports are as a result, is not a good thing – does not help.
What does this mean for the countries around Turkey? In the past twenty years, through their “zero-problems” foreign policy and aim for broader strategic influence in the Middle East, Turkey has been increasing its exports to Arab states. Turkish trade with the Middle East and the Gulf increased by 22.1 percent in 2017 alone. As the Lira continues to plummet and Erdoğan continues to shake confidence in the independence of Turkey’s Central Bank, Turkey’s economic strife will have repercussions across the region. It might even cause a domino effect by rattling investor confidence in other economically struggling countries in the region, such as Jordan.
The issue here is what Turkey’s economic troubles, and President Trump’s decision to pile on at the worst possible time, mean for the conflict in Syria. This is particularly salient in the Northern region of Idlib. After Russia and the Syrian government “liberated” the south of Syria of opposition fighters in June and July, Idlib is the last region in Syria with an active Arab military opposition to Assad – IS pockets of influence in the south and the east notwithstanding. During regime attacks on rebel strongholds in Homs in 2014-15, Aleppo in 2016, and Eastern Ghouta and Deraa in 2018, many opposition militias struck deals with the Syrian regime for safe passage to Idlib in exchange for their surrender. The same goes for a significant number of internally displaced persons, who fled regime-held areas and headed for Idlib in the hopes of protection from Assad or the opportunity to leave Syria for Turkey.
The result is that the Idlib region is currently home to more than 2.5 million people, up from 750,000 before the beginning of the war. Idlib is also home to a number of Turkey-sponsored political and military groups, as Turkey hopes to maintain Idlib as a zone of influence for the foreseeable future; it has already spent considerable sums of money in reconstruction efforts, in the hopes that it can return Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to Idlib – despite the fact that most of them are not from Idlib. As the last remaining rebel stronghold, Idlib is also the next military target for the Syrian government
Speculation abounds that the only thing stopping Assad from launching his offensive on Idlib is Russian calls for restraint, as well as a Turkish “red line” warning the Syrian government not to invade Idlib. This is where Turkey’s economic woes become important, particularly as they can be attributed to American actions.
Trump’s tweet will only increase animosity between the US and an economically desperate Turkey. As a result, Turkey is likely to accelerate its turn towards economic cooperation with Russia, with whom they signed a gas pipeline deal in July. Economic cooperation, however, comes with strings attached, and it is likely that Russia will use its greater economic leverage to defuse the chances of a Syrian-Turkish conflict. This would result in Turkish withdrawal from Idlib, and – as Middle East Institute scholar Charles Lister details – a military and humanitarian crisis on a scale unlike anything seen in the Syrian civil war so far should Assad attack the overcrowded region of Idlib.
There is much to criticize about Turkey’s role in Syria. They have sponsored salafist and jihadist groups, encouraged ethnic conflict between the Arabs and the Kurds in the north, and impeded American efforts to liberate eastern Syria from IS by attacking the Kurds in Efrin in January. Trump’s administration, however, is not attempting to influence Turkey’s behavior in Syria in a positive manner, or even to punish Turkey for their actions in Syria. Instead, Trump is kicking Turkey while it is down, meaning that Trump’s first active contribution to the conflict in Syria is somehow worse than America’s inaction in the past few months. As usual, it will be the Syrian population that suffers the most.
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Coup failure and civilian control
The SETA Foundation convened a panel yesterday discussing how the July 15, 2016 coup attempt has affected civil-military relations in Turkey. Panelists were:
- Sener Akturk, Associate Professor, Koç University Department of International Relations
- Edward Erickson, Scholar-in-Residence in the Clark Center for Global Engagement, State University of New York at Cortland
- Mark Perry, Author and Foreign Policy Analyst.
Kadir Ustun (Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC) moderated the conversation.
Ustun underlined that the events of July 2016 were an attack on Turkey’s democracy. Erdogan’s leadership in the coup’s aftermath allowed the Turkish people to “reclaim their democratic institutions.” Akturk furthered this point, claiming that Turkey actually faced two assaults on its democracy, one from the “bolshevik” PKK in July 2015 and the other from Fethullah Gulen’s “Messianic cult” in July 2016.
Erdogan’s reforms, Akturk said, posed an existential threat to each group by eroding the credibility of their grievances with Turkish society. The creation of a government-sponsored Kurdish TV channel in 2009 significantly reduced the PKK claim that Erdogan marginalized the Kurds. The lifting of the headscarf ban for public employees in 2013 eroded the Gulen Movement’s argument that the government limited religious freedom of expression.
As a result, both groups resorted to violence to achieve their political objectives. Akturk emphasized that these groups, not Erdogan, represent the real threat to Turkey’s democracy. While Erdogan championed Morsi’s democratically-elected government in Egypt, Gulenists encouraged the coup that brought it down in 2013. Further, the PKK’s constitution reveals its Bolshevik-leaning tendencies, while the governing style of its Syrian affiliate, the PYD, betrays the PKK’s preference for totalitarianism.
Akturk also remarked that the attempted coup shifted the Turkish civilian-military balance firmly in favor of civilian oversight over the military. As a result of the coup attempt, the military became subordinate to civilian rule, forcing the Turkish armed forces to delink themselves from politics and occupy themselves only with fighting. Finally, Akturk revealed that any doubts surrounding Turkey’s military capability following Erdogan’s dismissal of 42% of its commanders after the coup were swiftly silenced with the success of Operation Euphrates Shield in the Fall of 2015.
Erickson argued that the coup failed because of a generational change in the military. The staunch Kemalists who held the office of Chief of the General Staff during Turkey’s coup-riddled 20th century had largely been replaced by younger officers by 2016. Many of these officers received their educations abroad or had served on NATO assignments, exposing them to the view that the military should not interfere with domestic politics. Further, many had witnessed the aftermath of the 1980 coup, which resulted in over 600,000 arrests. As a result, the coup failed. Instead of siding with the plotters, the Chief of the General Staff in 2016, Hulusi Akar, sided with Erdogan.
The significance of the coup for Turkey’s democracy, Erickson argued, is that it brought about Turkey’s second republic, which began with the adoption of the presidential system this year. Importantly, the presidential system brought about one of Samuel Huntington’s key elements of a functioning democracy: civilian control over the military. In Erickson’s view, while Turkey’s politics may swing towards authoritarianism in the short term under Erdogan, the establishment of the military as a force used purely for fighting represents a gain that will strengthen Turkey’s democracy in the long term.
In his remarks, Perry cautioned against using American standards to measure the legitimacy of Turkey’s military, and to instead appreciate that Turkey’s establishing civilian control over the military is a huge accomplishment. Perry claimed that Hulusi Akar’s decision to side with Erdogan during the coup reveals that “Turkey does not need coups anymore.” But the Turkish military still has a long way to go before it is viewed as a legitimate institution by all Turks. So long as not all elements of Turkish society feel represented by the Turkish armed forces, some Turks will continue to struggle to see it as a legitimate implementer of Turkish national interests abroad.
Caveat emptor: All of the panelists agreed that the failure of the attempted coup strengthened Turkey’s democracy by paving the way to firmer civilian control of the military. The panelists, however, chose to gloss over the reality that these gains will likely only become visible after Erdogan and his authoritarian agenda leave office.
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Peace picks July 15 – 21
1. The Legacy of the July 15 Coup Attempt on Civil-Military and US-Turkey Relations | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 10:30 am – 3:30 pm | The SETA Foundation | Register Here
On July 15, 2016, the Turkish people demonstrated their commitment to democracy and civil rights by peacefully resisting and stopping an attempted coup by a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces. In the two years since, Turkey has changed its system of government and overhauled its military forces, reforms which have had marked effects on the nature of civil-military relations in Turkey. These changes will have significant impact on the future of the US-Turkey relations as well as the democratic development of the country.
On July 16, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC will host a conference on the anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt with a Keynote Address by Dr. Ravza Kavakci Kan, Deputy Chairperson of the AK Party. Two panel discussions will focus on the future of civil-military relations in Turkey and the changes in Turkey since the 2016 coup attempt will mean for the future of the US-Turkey security partnership, which has long been a strong bond between the two nations.
10:30 – 12:00 Panel I: The Future of Civil-Military Relations in Turkey
Sener Akturk, Associate Professor, Koç University Department of International Relations
Edward Erickson, Scholar-in-Residence in the Clark Center for Global Engagement, State University of New York at Cortland
Mark Perry, Author and Foreign Policy Analyst
Moderated by Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC
12:00 – 1:00 Keynote Address by Dr. Ravza Kavakci Kan, Deputy Chairperson of the AK Party
1:00 – 1:30 Lunch
1:30 – 3:00 Panel II: The Future of the US-Turkey Security Partnership
Mark Kimmitt, Defense Consultant, MTK Defense Consultants
Richard Outzen, Senior US Army Advisor & Member of Policy Planning Staff, US Department of State
Kadir Ustun, Executive Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Moderated by Kilic B. Kanat, Research Director, The SETA Foundation at Washington DC
2. Second Anniversary of the July 15 Coup Attempt | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization | Held at the United States Institute for Peace, Auditorium – 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
Please join THO and Bau International University on Monday, July 16, for an exclusive interview with Ret. General, Commander of the Turkish Land Forces, Salih Zeki Colak. This event will focus on the second anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt that took place in 2016.
Speakers:
Salih Zeri Colak – Retired General, Commander of the Turkish Land Forces
Dr. M. Hakan Yavuz – Professor of Political Science, University of Utah
Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr. – Chairman Emeritus, Stimson Center
3. JCPOA 2.0: Iran, Europe, Trump, and the Future of the Iran Deal | Monday, July 16, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm | National Iranian American Council | Capitol Visitor Center, Room SVC-210/212 | Register Here
Nearly two months have passed since President Trump exited from the Iran nuclear deal and announced the reimposition of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. While major businesses have withdrawn from the Iranian market in the wake of the decision, the remaining parties to the accord have continued to engage in dialogue about how to keep the accord alive.
Speakers:
John Glaser – Director of Foreign Policy Studes, Cato Institute
Kelsey Davenport – Director for Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Reza Marashi – Research Director, National Iranian American Council
Jamal Abdi – Vice President of Policy, National Iranian American Council
4. Are Americans Giving Up on Democracy? | Tuesday, July 17, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | New America | Register Here
How committed are Americans to the values, norms and processes of democracy itself? As non-democratic and illiberal movements take hold across the globe, and with democratic norms and voting rights under threat in the U.S., this question has gained urgency. Recently, two major studies of public attitudes, from the Democracy Fund’s Voter Study Group and from Pew Research Center, have delved deeply and rigorously into this question.
Please join us for a lunchtime conversation about the state of our democracy, what citizens want to see from their country, and how to move forward. Lee Drutman of New America and Jocelyn Kiley from Pew Research Center will present the key findings of the results, followed by a discussion involving journalists and academics who have watched the shifting ground of American democracy from different angles.
Speakers:
Lee Drutman – Senior Fellow, Political Reform, New America
Jocelyn Kiley – Associate Director, US Politics, Pew Research Center
Perry Bacon, Jr. – Political Writer, FiveThirtyEight
Vanessa Wiliamson – Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Henry Olsen – Senior Fellow, Ethics and Public Policy Center
5. Supporting Democracy in Challenging Times | Tuesday, July 17, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
For more than three decades, the United States has provided bipartisan support to secure freedom, human rights and democratic governance for countries around the world through the work of the National Endowment for Democracy, along with its four core institutes, the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the International Republican Institute (IRI), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and the Solidarity Center.
Over the past decade, the work of promoting democracy has been increasingly challenging amidst a phenomenon of democratic recession and resurgent authoritarianism, which is increasingly viewed by scholars as a new era of ideological and political contestation. Systemic corruption, deep inequality and injustice, and the failure of governments to address the needs of ordinary citizens breed political instability, terrorism, and massive flows of refugees – conditions that threaten our own security and well-being. Authoritarian leaders are capitalizing on these conditions and accelerating their efforts to penetrate and corrupt fragile states through aggressive political, economic, technological and cultural mechanisms with the goal of reaping political influence and acquiring strategic resources. Please join us at CSIS on July 17 as we host the heads of the NED, CIPE, IRI, NDI, and the Solidarity Center to discuss the new challenges in supporting democracy.
Speakers:
Carl Gershman – President, National Endowment for Democracy
Andrew Wilson – Executive Director, Center for International Private Enterprise
Daniel Twining – President, International Republican Institute
Kenneth Wollack – President, National Democratic Institute
Shawna Bader-Blau – Executive Director, Solidarity Center
Daniel F. Runde – William A. Schreyer Chair and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development, CSIS
6. Oil and Iran: How Renewed Sanctions Will Affect Iran and World Markets | Wednesday, July 18, 2018 | 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here
In exiting the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration has vowed to drastically reduce Iran’s oil exports below figures reached during negotiations over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Administration officials have been traveling the globe urging importers of Iranian oil to cut purchases to zero by Nov. 4, the deadline for re-imposition of US secondary sanctions. The panel will discuss whether this goal is realistic and the impact the US campaign is having on global production and prices as well as on Iran.
Speakers:
Moderator: Barbara Slavin – Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Anna Borshchevskaya – Ira Weiner Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Amos J. Hochstein – Senior Vice President, Marketing, Tellurian Inc.
Robin Mills – CEO, Qamar Energy
Brian O’Toole – Non-resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Sara Vakhshouri – Founder and President, SVB Energy International
7. From Washington to Brussels: A Discussion on the NATO 2018 Summit | Thursday, July 19, 2018 | 8:30 am – 9:15 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Please join us on Thursday, July 19 for a timely conversation with Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), Co-Chairs of the Senate NATO Observer Group and members of the U.S. delegation to the July 11-12 NATO Summit, for post-summit analysis as well as a discussion of the vital role that bipartisan Congressional leadership plays in tackling transatlantic security challenges. Our speakers will share details about the specific role the newly constituted Senate NATO Observer Group will play in providing Congressional support for NATO and U.S. strategic interests in Europe.
8. No Friends, No Enemies? Trans-Atlantic Relations after Trump’s Europe Trip | Thursday, July 19, 2018 | 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here
What is the state of the Atlantic alliance following the July NATO summit and the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki? Where are relations heading between the Trump administration and the European Union, which Trump has claimed “was set up to take advantage” of the United States? What are the implications of the Trump administration’s protectionism for trans-Atlantic relations? Where do Brexit Britain and post-election Turkey fit in an evolving West? Under pressure from within and without, can the European Union forge a stronger independent foreign policy and preserve multilateralism and liberal order in a world where these concepts are under assault?
On July 19, the Center on the United States and Europe, in partnership with the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD), will host a panel discussion examining recent developments in Europe and trans-Atlantic relations, including the outcomes of Trump’s July trip to Brussels, London, and Helsinki. Following the discussion, the panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Introduction: Bahadir Kaleagasi – CEO, TUSIAD
Moderator: Susan B. Glasser – Staff Writer, The New Yorker
Robert Kagan – Stephen & Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Kemal Kirişci – Senior Fellow, TUSIAD; Director, The Turkey Project, Brookings Institution
Angela Stent – Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Thomas Wright – Director, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
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Peace Picks July 8 – 15
You can find more events for the upcoming week here
1. A Vision: Ukraine – 2030: Sustainable Development Doctrine | Tuesday, July 10, 2018 | 1:30 pm – 3:00 pm | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Ukraine has made significant progress on ambitious economic and financial reforms in recent years. Steps have been taken to intensify the fight against corruption and boost economic growth across a range of sectors. However, much work is still needed for Ukraine’s economic development and improvement of the socio-economic situation. In addition to focus on specific reforms and bolstering investor confidence, strategies for long-term sustainable development must also be considered.
At this event, Mr. Serhiy Taruta, Member of Parliament, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, will present a paper, entitled Ukraine 2030, a vision which lays out a framework for the strategic direction of Ukraine’s long-term development. This will be followed by a discussion on the challenges and opportunities for Ukraine’s sustainable development will be discussed.
Speakers:
Moderator: Ambassador John Herbst, Director – Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Mr. Serhiy Taruta, Member of Parliament, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
Dr. Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow – Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council; Independent Member, Supervisory Board, Ukrzaliznytsia
Dr. Vira Nanivska, Policy Research Director, Collegium Anna Yaroslavna: East
Dr. Edi Segura, Chairman of the Board, The Blezyer Foundation; Partner and Chief Economist, SigmaBleyzer
Ms. Michelle Small, Director, Head of the Washington DC Representative Office, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Mr. Morgan Williams, President, US-Ukraine Business Council
2. Elections in Zimbabwe: Autocracy and Stasis, or Democracy and Change? | Tuesday, July 10, 2018 | 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm | National Endowment for Democracy | Register Here
Since the Movement for Democratic Change’s founding in 1999, Zimbabwe has been going through a protracted struggle for democratization. An entrenched incumbent, fortified by a strong political-military network, has met aspirations for democratic improvement with strong resistance. This network, however, underwent a serious rupture last November when former allies effectively deposed its long-serving leader, Robert Mugabe. The new president, President Emmerson Mnangagwa, has scheduled general elections for July 30, 2018. The upcoming polls present new political dynamics and a heightened level of anticipation both within and outside Zimbabwe. In his presentation, Dr. Alex Magaisa will consider the struggle to achieve greater democratic accountability in today’s Zimbabwe. He will assess preparations for the approaching elections and discuss the prospects for democratization, including possible post-election scenarios and the roles of the military and the international community. Comments by Dr.Alexander H. Noyes will follow.
Speakers:
Moderator: Natalie Kay, Program Officer, Southern Africa, National Endowment for Democracy
Alex Magaisa, Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow, National Endowment for Democracy
Alexander H. Noyes, Senior Associate (Non-Resident), Africa Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
3. July 15 Coup Attempt: Two Years Later | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization
Please join the Turkish Heritage Organization and the Global Policy Institute on July 11 for a panel discussion on the second anniversary of the July 15 coup attempt that took place in 2016. Since this critical event in Turkey’s recent history, the country has witnessed profound changes within both its foreign and domestic politics. Our distinguished guests will discuss how the coup attempt shaped present day Turkey and the potential implications regarding U.S.-Turkey relations.
Speakers:
Moderator: Deniz Karatas, Global Policy Institute
Abraham Wagner, Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs & Senior Research Scholar, Columbia University
4. Future of US-Turkish Relations After Erdogan’s Victory | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm | Endowment for Middle East Truth | Register Here
Join EMET on Capitol Hill as we host Congressman Gus Bilirakis, FDD scholar and former Turkish parliament member Dr. Aykan Erdemir, the pro-Kurdish opposition US representative of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), Giran Ozcan, and EMET’s Director of the Kurdistan Project, Diliman Abdulkader. The panel will be moderated by EMET founder and President Sarah Stern. Our panel will analyze the implications of the June 24th Turkish elections called by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Leading Turkey since 2002 with the Justice and Development Party (AKP), internally Erdogan has tilted state institutions to further solidify his position, he has targeted political opposition groups, academics, journalists, and the Kurdish minority all while labeling those speaking against his rule as “terrorists.” Erdogan has distanced himself from his short-lived “zero problem with neighbors” policy as he has made more foes than friends in the region. He has threatened Greece with military action while continuing to have a foothold in Northern Cyprus. His incursions into Syria targeting US-backed Kurdish forces has created a diminishing of relations with the United States. Under Erdogan, Turkey has pivoted towards Russia by purchasing Russian missiles incompatible with NATO defense systems. The panel will examine the outcome of the elections, what Turkey’s future holds under Erdogan and how this will affect US-Turkish relations.
5. Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent After the Fall of the Caliphate | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 12:00pm – 1:45pm | Foreign Policy Research Institute | Register Here
In 2014, the United States stated its intention to “degrade and destroy” ISIS. Since then, a diverse array of forces has worked tirelessly to liberate key territories in Iraq and Syria from ISIS’s Caliphate. Now, in the summer of 2018, ISIS’s Caliphate largely has been dismantled as a territorial entity. However, the group is far from destroyed, and its ability to maneuver is much improved as it reverts to an insurgency. What’s more, there is very little to prevent yet another non-state armed group from retaking the very same lands that ISIS once held. Accordingly, American diplomacy, military strategy, and intelligence collection likely will focus on Iraq and Syria for many years to come. Thus, the question for policymakers is how the U.S. can prevent non-state armed groups from regaining a territorial foothold, further destabilizing these territories, and ultimately threatening U.S. interests in the region. Relatedly, the question of what to do about the likes of al-Qaeda and ISIS even if they do not hold territory remains equally pressing.
“Stabilizing the Fertile Crescent After the Fall of the Caliphate,” a special issue of Orbis: FPRI’s Journal of World Affairs (Summer 2018) and the subject of this panel, seeks to provide a framework for thinking about the threat of terrorism emanating from the Fertile Crescent now that ISIS’s Caliphate is being undone and to provide concrete policy recommendations to establish a tenable politico-economic status quo.
Speakers:
Tally Helfont, Director of Program on the Middle East, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Samuel Helfont, Assistant Professor, Naval War College, Monterey
Barak Mendelsohn, Associate Professor, Haverford College
Assaf Moghadam, Adjunct Associate Professor, Columbia University
6. Next Steps on North Korea: Denuclearization and Building a New Relationship | Thursday, July 12, 2018 | 9:00am – 10:30 am | Korea Economic Institute of America | Register Here
With the historic first meeting between a sitting U.S. president and the leader of North Korea now complete, the difficult process of negotiating North Korea’s dismantlement and building a new relationship between the United States and North Korea begins. What are the key steps the United States and North Korea need to take to achieve the goals of the Singapore Statement? What is the role of South Korea as the process moves forward? What challenges beyond denuclearization are there for building new U.S.-North Korea relationship?
Please join the Korea Economic Institute of America and the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy for a discussion of the key next steps in dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program and moving towards the new relationship called for in the Singapore Statement.
Speakers:
Moderator: Jenna Gibson, Korea Economic Institute of America
Patrick Cronin, Center for a New American Security
Katrin Katz, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Kim Seok Hwan, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
Kim Yong Hyun, Dongguk University
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