Tag: Turkey

Elections have consequences

Posted in Daniel Serwer - June 28, 2018 - 0 Comment

Here are the speaking notes I prepared for today’s noontime presentation at SETA DC:

  1. It wasn’t free or fair, but Erdogan has won his gamble: he has not only the enhanced presidency but also a coalition majority in parliament. He in effect controls the judiciary and press as well.
  1. The opposition is fragmented and likely to prove no more effective than in the last few years, though its hostility to Syrian refugees will guarantee it some support.
  1. Turkey looks headed deeper into one-man rule, even if Erdogan fulfills his pledge to lift the emergency.
  1. It would be foolish to imagine Erdogan will suddenly become generous to his enemies, end his crackdown on over 100,000 alleged coup-plotters, break with the Russians, re-focus attention on fighting Islamic extremism and qualifying for EU membership, negotiate peace with Turkey’s Kurds, or patch up the alliance with the US.
  1. I wonder if he would even restrain his body guards from beating up demonstrators were he to visit the US again.
  1. The question is what the US should do about it? How do we make it through the coming years, possibly even a decade or more, with an erstwhile ally moving in a direction it is hard to like?
  1. The current occupant of the White House makes these questions more difficult than they would normally be. He is on the outs with Erdogan, but not over human rights or relations with Russia. Trump and Erdogan might agree entirely on those issues.
  1. But President Trump has continued to insist on supporting the Syrian Kurds and hasn’t proven much help on the extradition of Gulen, which are the two things Erdogan cares about the most.
  1. Ironically, the best approach is one Trump might find attractive: a transactional relationship that relies less on Turkey as an ally and more on its usefulness to the US.
  1. The most important aspect of that usefulness is geography. The Incirlik air base is important to U.S. operations throughout the Levant. So long as it remains available, we are going to have to try to improve relations with Erdogan, who fortunately gets real benefits from those operations.
  1. As Syria’s northern neighbor with a long common border, Turkey is hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees. The US has spent around $600 million to support them and needs to continue.
  1. The immediate crunch issue is the sale of F35s to Ankara, which Congress is trying to stop. What is needed is a compromise, one that ends Erdogan’s threat to buy Russian S400 air defenses while allowing the transfer of the F35s. Secretary Mattis is said to be working a deal of that sort. I can’t help but wonder whether a Patriot sale might also still be something Erdogan still wants.
  1. The question of the Syrian Kurds is next. The agreement on Manbij appears to be working so far and needs to be completed with reformulation of the town’s governing body and withdrawal of YPG forces east of the Euphrates.
  1. Much tougher will be the issue of prisoner releases: Ankara holds dozens of Americans, apparently hoping to trade them for Gulen. It is hard to convince Erdogan that Trump does not have the same power over Gulen’s fate that Erdogan has over the Americans Turkey holds.
  1. If, however, a court decides in favor of extradition, I doubt the Trump administration will stand in the way.
  1. This, I’m afraid, is how we will need to proceed: issue by issue, looking for trades we can reasonably do that Erdogan will find attractive. It will be a hard slog, one during which concern about human rights abuses will likely find little public expression.
  1. I nevertheless hope the Administration will make a strong case in private against Erdogan’s continued crackdown. All but the immediate coup plotters should be freed, Kurdish political leaders and journalists should be released and amnestied or pardoned, jobs should be restored.
  1. The strongest potential leverage the Americans have now on human rights is economic: Turkey is headed in a bad direction that will be made much worse if secondary sanctions against Iran are instituted.
  1. Relief from secondary sanctions could be traded for easing the crackdown, but Trump isn’t likely to do that. Erdogan will have strong incentives to surreptitiously violate the sanctions, which he did even during the Obama era.
  1. Erdogan has won. Trump is in power. Elections have consequences.

 

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Peace Picks – June 25-July 1

Posted in Marc-Andrea Fiorina - June 24, 2018 - 0 Comment

1. An Alternative Vision for Israel | Monday, June 25, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | Brookings Institution | Register Here

On June 25, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host Member of Knesset Yair Lapid for an Alan and Jane Batkin International Leaders Forum. M.K. Lapid will join for a public conversation on his vision for Israel’s future. M.K. Lapid, the former finance minister of the State of Israel, will discuss a wide-ranging set of issues confronting Israel today, from its position in the Golan Heights, its strategy toward the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, to the state U.S.-Israel alliance and bipartisan support for Israel in the United States.

A former journalist, television presenter, and author, Lapid founded the centrist Yesh Atid Party in 2012. The party garnered a surprising 19 seats in its first elections, and was the second largest party in the Knesset. Yesh Atid today polls as the main opposition challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Introductory Remarks: John R. Allen, President, The Brookings Institution

Moderator: Tamara Cofman Wittes, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution

Featured Speaker: Yair Lapid, Chairman – Yesh Atid Party

2. More Than Burden Sharing: Five Objectives for the 2018 NATO Summit | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | 8:15 am – 9:45 am | Center for New American Security | Register Here

In early-July, NATO will host the first full-length summit at its new headquarters in Brussels. It will also be the first NATO summit for President Donald Trump’s foreign-policy team. President Trump will arrive in Brussels with only one thing on his mind: burden sharing. This is hardly a new concern for an American president, or indeed for many European leaders. Although continuing to push allies to take on a bigger share of the burden is important, the United States should not allow this single issue to eclipse the entire summit agenda. This summit needs to be about more than burden sharing. It is with this in mind that the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program has published its latest report, “More Than Burden Sharing: Five Objectives for the 2018 NATO Summit.”

We cordially invite you to the formal release of this report on Tuesday, June 26 at 8:15 AM at the CNAS office (1152 15th Street NW, Suite 950) as we examine the additional issues that NATO allies should tackle at the Summit including the Black Sea, counter-terrorism, emerging domains of warfare, NATO-EU defense planning, and readiness. This public, on-the-record event will feature opening remarks by the Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ine Eriksen Søreide. A panel discussion with CNAS experts Julianne Smith and Jim Townsend, along with Ian Brzezinski of the Atlantic Council will follow. The event will be moderated by Professor Rosa Brooks of Georgetown University.

3. Mapping the Role of Religion in Fragile States – Insights from Libya, South Sudan and Iraq | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | 9:30 am – 11:00 am | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

From Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s influence in the Iraqi elections to the involvement of religious actors in South Sudan’s peace process, the role of religion in conflict zones continues to dominate headlines. Please join field researchers and U.S. Institute of Peace experts on June 26, as they present an approach for mapping the role of religious actors and institutions to better understand their legitimacy and influence in contributing to peace and conflict, exploring findings from three recent mappings from Libya, South Sudan, and Iraq based on work from the field.

The religious landscape of any conflict zone is undergoing constant change, making it difficult for stakeholders to engage and partner with religious actors. This event presents a methodology that relies on local researchers to understand the influence and legitimacy of religious actors and institutions, taking a unique approach to identifying key informants to facilitate trust and accuracy. Researchers who participated in the project in South Sudan and Iraq will be present to answer questions about challenges faced and how they were overcome.

Speakers:

Welcoming remarks: Col. Paul Hughes,  Acting Vice President, Center for Applied Conflict Transformation, U.S. Institute of Peace

Introductory remarks: Rev. Susan Hayward, Senior Advisor, Religion & Inclusive Societies, U.S. Institute of Peace

Moderator: Rosarie Tucci, Director, Inclusive Societies, U.S. Institute of Peace

Palwasha Kakar, Senior Program Officer, Libya Project Coordinator, U.S. Institute of Peace

Dr. Jacqueline Wilson, Lead Researcher and South Sudan Project Coordinator, U.S. Institute of Peace

Dr. Ann Wainscott, Lead Researcher and Iraq Project Coordinator, U.S. Institute of Peace

Zainab Qassim, Networks Manager, Sanad for Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace

Monica Pio, South Sudan Researcher, Forcier Consulting

4. Is There Reason to Hope? – Turkey after the 2018 Elections | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | Project on Middle East Democracy | Register Here

On June 24, Turkish voters will go to the polls to select the first president and parliament to be elected under the constitutional reforms of 2016. With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan poised to assume even greater powers if he wins, these elections have been described as Turkey’s last off-ramp before dictatorship. While some observers remain optimistic about the possibility of a surprise opposition victory, others fear that a contested or stolen vote could end in protests and violence.

With the stakes higher than ever, please join us for an expert panel on Tuesday, June 26, that will discuss the results of Turkey’s elections as well as their implications for the future of Turkish democracy and for the U.S.-Turkish relationship.

Please join the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) and the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) for a panel discussion featuring:

Moderator: Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research, POMED

Henri Barkey Cohen, Professor of International Relations, Lehigh University; Senior Fellow, Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Nicholas Danforth, Senior Analyst, Bipartisan Policy Center

Howard Eissenstat, Associate Professor, St. Lawrence University; POMED Nonresident Senior Fellow

Lisel Hintz, Assistant Professor of International Relations and European Studies, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University

Gönül Tol, Founding Director, Center for Turkish Studies, Middle East Institute; Adjunct Professor, George Washington University

5. Impact of Turkish Election Results on Turkish-American Relations | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | National Press Club, First Amendment Lounge, 529 14th St NW Washington, DC 20045 | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here

Turkey’s snap Presidential and Parliamentary elections take place on June 24, and the outcome will shape the future of Turkey for years to come. How will these elections impact Turkey’s foreign policy toward the United States?

Please join THO on June 26 for a timely discussion on the results of the Turkish Elections. Our distinguished experts will provide insight on how the election will impact U.S.-Turkey relations. ***A light lunch will be provided for all guests***

Speakers:

Moderator: Melike Ayan, Bloomberg TV

Peter Van Praagh, President, Halifax International Security Forum

Defne Sadiklar-Arslan, Executive Director, Atlantic Council Turkey ( via Skype from Istanbul)

Luke Coffey, Director of Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy, The Heritage Foundation

Paul McCarthy, Deputy Director of Europe, International Republican Institute

6. Who won Turkey? Implications from Erdoğan’s Snap Elections | Wednesday, June 27, 2018 | 10:30 am – 12 pm | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has called snap presidential and parliamentary elections for June 24. Following the failed coup attempt in July 2016, the constitutional referendum in April 2017 that approved a more powerful executive presidency, and recent economic turbulence, Turkish politics have become increasingly volatile. Recent polls suggest it is likely that Erdoğan will win the presidency in a run-off, but his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will lose its majority in parliament. What would be the domestic, economic, and foreign policy implications of such a mixed result? And what would a renewed mandate for Erdoğan mean for Turkey’s democracy, economy, and relations with the United States and Europe?

To address the outcome of the elections and its wide-ranging implications, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will convene an expert panel on Wednesday, June 27. The panel will feature Ali Çarkoğlu, professor in political science at Koç University; Charles Johnston, BIAC executive board vice chair and managing director of international government affairs at Citi; Amanda Sloat, Robert Bosch senior fellow at Brookings; and Kemal Kirişci, TÜSİAD senior fellow and director of the Turkey Project at Brookings. The discussion will be moderated by Karen DeYoung, associate editor and senior national security correspondent for The Washington Post.

7. Russia in the Middle East: A View from Israel | Wednesday, June 27, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Wilson Center | Register Here

Since Russia entered the Syrian conflict in September 2015, it has positioned itself as a major player in the region. Israel in particular has had to contend with Russia’s presence right across its border. How does Israel perceive Russia’s influence in the region? How does it impact on Israel’s ability to maintain its security interests? The speakers will address these questions and related issues.

Speakers:

Moderator: Matthew Rojansky, Director, Kennan Institute

Major General (Res.) Amos Gilead, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya

Dr. Col. (Res.) Shaul Shay, Director of Research of the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Interdisciplinary Center, Herzilya

Dr. Dmitry Adamsky, Professor, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzilya

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The Levant: from bad to worse

Posted in Nicolas Reeves - June 21, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Wilson Center hosted a panel yesterday entitled “The Middle East: A Region in Chaos?” to discuss the current situation in the Middle East and the U.S. government’s reaction to this situation. Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO of the Wilson Center, introduced the speakers before the moderator, Michael Yaffe, Vice President, Middle East and Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace, provided a brief summary of the many developments in the region in 2018. The panel included:

Robin Wright – USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow

Bruce Riedel – Senior Fellow and Director, Brookings Intelligence Project, Brookings Institution

Mona Yacoubian – Senior Advisor, Syria, Middle East and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace

Aaron David Miller – Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center.

This post will focus on the panel’s analysis of recent developments in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and the Syrian Conflict. A previous post focused on the Iran/Saudi Arabia dimension.

As the conversation shifted to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Miller painted a bleak picture of future prospects for a two-state solution. At a time when Syria, Iraq, and Egypt – traditional, vocal allies of the Palestinian cause – are projecting less power across the region because of unrest at home, the US-Israel relationship has reached unprecedented strength. This realignment is a central premise of Jared Kushner’s peace plan strategy. Kushner hopes that aligning fully with Israel on previous roadblocks, such as the governance of Jerusalem, will take these issues off the table while heaping pressure on Netanyahu to accept concessions made to the Palestinians. At the same time, Palestinian demoralization with the current state of affairs will push them back to the negotiating table if any unexpected compromises are made. Miller argued that Kushner’s moves will have the opposite effect; Palestinian trust in America to be an honest broker has evaporated over the last six months, leaving them less inclined than ever even to engage with the United States to find a viable two-state solution.

Miller and Yacoubian also highlighted the diminishing US leadership as power vacuums emerge across the region due to the dysfunction of many Arab states. As Trump continues the Obama administration’s hands-off approach to the region, these voids are being filled by Russia, Turkey, Israel, and non-state actors. US aversion to conflict has also allowed Iran to dramatically increase its influence in Syria, leading to direct military engagement between Israel and the Islamic Republic. Yacoubian argued that a possible Israeli airstrike on Iranian positions close to the Syria-Iraq border could mean that more escalation is on the horizon. Paradoxically, continued hostilities could drag the United States into a proxy war between Israel and Iran fought in Syria and Iraq.

On the southern front, the Syrian Arab Army’s ongoing siege of Dera’a and Al-Quneitra provinces could force even more refugees to flee to Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom is already reeling from the political blowback to tax hikes designed to combat the country’s ailing economy, and another refugee influx would further inflame internal tensions. Yacoubian argued that recent US inaction in Syria suggests that the State Department’s promise for “firm and appropriate measures” in response to cease fire violations in Southern Syria is also bluster, so Jordan is on its own. Yacoubian also revealed that efforts to convince the Kurds to leave Manbij and move east of the Euphrates in northern Syria could easily derail, leading to more violence, while Trump’s desire to quickly withdraw US. troops could leave a power vacuum that ISIS would exploit.

The Bottom Lines: The political situation in the Levant has gone from bad to worse over the last six months. Increased US support of Israel at the expense of Palestinian goodwill appears to have driven them away from the negotiating table completely, at least for now. In Syria, immediate US withdrawal will only lead to further destabilization. While the train has left the station for Trump to intervene in the south to limit further economic and political strain on Jordan, maintaining a presence in the east could prevent a resurgence of ISIS in this sparsely populated, US-controlled region.

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From bad to worse

Posted in Rrap Kryeziu - May 31, 2018 - 0 Comment

The Middle East strategic landscape is rapidly changing. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, brewing hostilities between Iran and Israel over Syria, and elections in Iraq and Lebanon continue to jolt regional stability. On May 23, 2018, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW), hosted a panel titled “Shake-Up in the Middle East: How Will Regional Powers Respond” to discuss current developments and their implications. The panel included:

1. Gregory Gause, Head of International Affairs Department, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University
2. Feisal Istrabadi, Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East, Indiana University
3. Gönül Tol, Founding Director, Center for Turkish Studies, Middle East Institute
4. Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW (Moderator)

Gause suggested that after one year, two Secretaries of State, and three national security advisors, Washington seems to finally have a strategy for the region, though some may label it a wish-list. Secretary Pompeo’s list includes demands that ranged from disarming and demobilizing Shia militias, to Iran’s withdrawal throughout the entirety of Syria.

Increased pressure on Iran will require increased cooperation with the Gulf Allies. The United States will want Saudi Arabia to send troops to Syria or perhaps to deflate oil prices so as to further squeeze Iran economically. Such demands will likely not be met with cooperation. The Saudis have spent the last two years trying to push oil prices up for internal reasons. The idea that the Saudis will do the opposite to enhance a US-led effort to pressure Iran is far-fetched if not entirely unreasonable.

Istrabadi sketched the geostrategic landscape of Iraq, which shows signs that it is emerging from the shadows and reasserting itself in a positive way. The current Prime Minister has managed to recalibrate the country’s relations with its neighbors by cooling tensions with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Gulf States; a goal that his predecessor failed to achieve. Iraq’s moment may however prove transient as the US is ratcheting up tensions in the region.

The Gulf States’ northern neighbor, Turkey, has not remained unaffected by geopolitical tremors in the MENA region. Tol, stressed that Turkey’s foreign policy fulcrum has become the Kurdish issue. Turkish-US relations have previously been tested; first in 1964 with Cyprus and the famous Johnson letter, then in 1974 when the US congress imposed sanctions and an arms embargo, and third in 2001 when Turkey decided not to allow US troops into its military bases. But ties remained unbroken due to the ruling center right parties and the military’s commitment to a pro-american Turkish foreign policy.

Today, Turkey-US relations are vastly different. The military, opposition, and the government are all on the same anti-American page. Problems today between the two countries are no longer contextual but structural. Democratic backsliding remains a concern, especially for the EU, while Turkish-Russian bilateral relations have warmed.

Bottom line: Saudi Arabia and Turkey are drifting away from the US, while Iraq will find it hard to fill the gap. Things are going from bad to worse for the Americans.

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Peace picks, May 28 – June 3

Posted in Noah Roos - May 28, 2018 - 0 Comment
  1. The Malaysian Election Tsunami: What Happens Next? | Wednesday, May 30 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

The CSIS Southeast Asia Program is pleased to present ‘The Malaysian Election Tsunami: What Happens Next?’ a panel discussion featuring Dr. Meredith Weiss (Professor and Director of International Programs, University of Albany’s Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy) and Ambassador Joseph Y. Yun (US ambassador to Malaysia, 2013-2016). They will discuss the outcomes of 14th Malaysian general election, and what the election means for the state of democracy in Malaysia and the region.

  1. Asserting Taiwan’s International Space: The Challenges Ahead for Taipei’s Leadership | Wednesday, May 30 | 2:00 pm – 3:30 pm | Wilson Center | Register Here

Taiwan’s unique status in the world has come under greater pressure in recent months as China steps up efforts to challenge Taipei’s global standing. Taiwan remains a leading Asian economy and a vibrant democracy. Yet strained cross-Strait relations have made it increasingly difficult for Taipei to ensure its standing in the international arena. Join us for a discussion on the political, security, and social challenges ahead for Taiwan, and how Taiwan may be able to overcome some of its vulnerabilities to ensure a stable and prosperous future. Panel includes Irene Wu (Fellow, Wilson Center), Ian Reston (Research Fellow, Project 2049 Institute) and Gerrit van der Wees (Editor, Taiwan Communique and Lecturer, George Mason University).

  1. Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments | Wednesday, May 30 | 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm | US Institute of Peace | Register Here

In the past two years, the world has witnessed multiple crises in regions where nuclear weapons are present: the Korean peninsula saw heightened tensions throughout 2017; China and India were involved in a major border crisis; violence between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control in Kashmir has been the highest in 15 years and the U.S. and its partners in the Middle East now face a highly uncertain future vis-à-vis Iran.

The U.S. has an innate interest in preventing nuclear war around the world. Along with other strong powers, the United States has been proactive in managing crises in nuclearized regions, most notably in South Asia, which has seen repeated bouts of escalated tensions since the end of the Cold War. Yet, as great power competition resurges and U.S. interests in Asia pit it against actors like Iran, Pakistan, and increasingly China, the U.S. role in crises in nuclearized regions may become more complicated. What implications could this have for the probability of conflict and for U.S. influence as other strong powers compete more aggressively with Washington in these theaters, including possibly using crises as opportunities to overshadow the traditional U.S. role as crisis manager?

Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on May 30 for a discussion on the opportunities, challenges, and risks of crises in regional nuclear contexts and policy options for U.S. diplomacy.  Panel includes Amb. Joseph Yun (Senior Advisor to the Asia Center, US Institute of Peace), Lora Saalman (Vice President, East-West Institute), Feroz Khan (Research Professor, Naval Postgraduate School), Moeed Yusuf (Associate Vice President, Asia Center at US Institute of Peace), and Gregg Zoroya (USA Today Editorial Board).

  1. Turkey’s Snap Elections and the Impact on U.S. – Turkey Relations | Thursday, May 31 | 11:00 am – 12:30 pm | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here

On June 24, Turkey will go to the polls for snap presidential and parliamentary elections that will mark the country’s transition to the new presidential system that was approved in an April 2017 referendum.
These elections come at a time when Turkey’s relationship with the U.S. – its NATO ally and foremost security partner – is facing numerous challenges. Turkey and the U.S. remain at odds over the latter’s support of the YPG in Syria, which Ankara considers to be a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, various pieces of recent Congressional legislation have proposed bans on weapons sales to Turkey in response to Ankara’s purchase of Russian military equipment and the continued imprisonment of American citizens in Turkey.
How will this critical turning point in Turkey’s domestic governance affect its vital relationship with the U.S.?
Join THO on May 31 for a discussion with Turkish and American experts on how developments surrounding these snap elections and Turkey’s transition to a presidential system could impact the U.S.-Turkey bilateral relationship.  Panel includes Richard Leiby (Editor and Writer, The Washington Post), Ragip Soylu (Washington Correspondent, Daily Sabah), Shawn Turner (CNN National Security Analyst and Director of Communication, Center for a New American Security), Yusuf Erim (Turkey Analyst, TRT World) and Guy Taylor (National Security Team Leader, The Washington Times).  Moderated by Prof. Herbert Reginbogin (Advisory Board Member, Turkish Heritage Organization).

  1. Military Challenges in the Asia Pacific: US Responses to Regional Competition | Friday, June 1 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here

The Asia Pacific security environment is more contested today than at any time since World War II. China’s increased assertiveness and North Korea’s unpredictability are not symptomatic of America’s decline, nor do they necessarily signal great power conflict. Rather, recent developments demand a close look at the changing terms of regional competition and America’s responses to it. In this hypercompetitive environment, how will the US and its allies and partners ensure regional stability?

Join AEI as a panel of security experts discuss how the US can keep its competitive edge in the Asia Pacific.  Panel includes Roger Cliff (Center for Naval Analyses), Thomas Donnelly (American Enterprise Institute), Nathan Freier (United States Army War College) and Lt. Gen. Wallace (Fmr. Assistant Secretary of Defense, Asian and Pacific Security Affairs).  Moderated by Philip Lohaus (American Enterprise Institute).

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Peace picks, May 14 – May 20

Posted in Adam Friend, Noah Roos, Sebastian Gerlach - May 14, 2018 - 0 Comment
  1. The Fallout from Trump’s Decision on the Iran Deal | Monday, May 14 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |

May 12 is the deadline for President Trump to renew sanctions waivers under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In January, he vowed to pull out of the JCPOA unless European nations met his demands for new pressure on Iran’s ballistic missile program, more stringent inspections of Iran’s military installations and a commitment to extend curbs on the Iranian nuclear program beyond the terms of the nuclear deal. The Future of Iran Initiative, the Global Business and Economics Program, and the Middle East Security Initiative invite you to a discussion of the ramifications of Trump’s decision on the likely responses of Iran and US European allies as well as the consequences for non-proliferation and conflict in the Middle East. A conversation with Axel Hellman (Policy Fellow; European Leadership Network), Elizabeth Rosenberg (Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program; Center for a New American Security), Ali Vaez (Iran Project Director; International Crisis Group), and David Mortlock (Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center; Atlantic Council). Moderated by Barbara Slavin (Director, Future of Iran Initiative; Atlantic Council), with keynote remarks by David O’Sullivan (Ambassador and Head, European Union Delegation to the United States).

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  1. How to Talk to North Korea | Monday, May 14 | 10:00 am – 11:00 am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here |

As a possible Trump-Kim summit draws closer, join Carnegie for a conversation about what negotiating with North Korea is really like. Previous U.S. negotiators and experts will talk about what lessons have been learned in previous rounds of talks, and what the United States should know going forward. The New York Times’ Mark Landler will moderate.  Panel includes Suzanne DiMaggio (Director and Senior Fellow, New America), Robert L. Gallucci (Professor, Georgetown University), Christopher Hill (Professor, University of Denver), and Daniel Russel (VP for International Security and Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute)

  1. US Policy Towards Iran: Strategic Options | Monday, May 14 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here |

The president’s decision on the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has dominated the discussion in Washington. But recent events also reinforce the need for an American strategy for the broader challenge posed by Iran. Returning some measure of stability to the increasingly fractured Middle East—a vital and enduring U.S. national security interest—requires confronting the spread of Iranian influence.

Join us on May 14 for a discussion on Iran’s influence in Syria and Iraq, and the release of a report from the Task Force on Managing Disorder in the Middle East on U.S. Policy Toward Iran: Strategic Options.  Fireside chat includes Amb. Eric Edelman (Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey) and Jake Sullivan (Former Director of Policy Planning, U.S. State Department and Former National Security Advisor to the Vice President).  Panel includes Amb. James Jeffrey (Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq), Mary Beth Long (Former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs), Denise Natali (Director, Center for Strategic Research at the Institute for National Strategic Studies) and Blaise Misztal (Director of National Security, Bipartisan Policy Center).  Moderated by Arshad Mohammed (Diplomatic Correspondent, Reuters).

A Tale of Two Elections: Recapping the Polls in Lebanon and Iraq | Tuesday, May 15 | 12:00pm – 2:00pm | Middle East Institute | Register here |

As Lebanon holds its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Iraq paves a way forward in the aftermath of the war against ISIS, many questions remain as to what the political future holds for both countries. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon on May 6, and in Iraq on May 12, serve as a barometer for transparency, inclusion, and the political realities in both countries. The polls have raised pressing political and governance issues such as how to overcome sectarianism, corruption, and economic stagnation in order to encourage further openness and plurality. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel discussion to examine these issues. MEI’s Bilal Y. Saab and Paul Salem will be joined by Abbas Kadhim (SAIS), Omar al-Nidawi (Gryphon Partners), and Bilal Wahab (WINEP) for a two-hour panel event moderated by MEI’s director for conflict resolution and the Track II Dialogues initiative, Randa Slim.

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       5. Cuba: Post-Castro Transition | Wednesday, May 16 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |

In April, Miguel Díaz-Canel became the 19th President of Cuba and the first in over 40 years who was not a member of the Castro family. This appointment — not election — of a new Cuban president raises a number of important questions about the future and stability of the regime. In a post-Castro era, Cuban politics will likely change, though the direction and magnitude of those changes remains to be seen. On May 16, Hudson Institute will host a panel to explore these issues and discuss the possibility of a democratic transition on the island. Panelists will include Eduardo Ulibarri, a Costa Rican journalist, diplomat, university professor, and international consultant; Hector E. Schamis, a teacher at Georgetown University’s Center for Latin American Studies and Democracy & Governance Program; and Ambassador Jaime Daremblum, senior fellow and director of Hudson Institute’s Center for Latin American Studies.

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      6. Decision Point: Iran, the Nuclear Deal, and Regional Stability | Wednesday, May 16 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm | Wilson Center | Register here |

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement will have far reaching implications for U.S. policy; the trans-Atlantic alliance; non-proliferation efforts; and even on regional stability – particularly in the Israeli-Lebanese-Iranian-Syrian arena. Indeed, those implications may go far in defining the U.S. posture in the region for years to come. Join us as four veteran analysts and policy advisers on the Middle East assess the implications of the president’s decision, including on U.S. foreign policy in the region at large. Featuring speakers Robert S. Litwak (Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies, Wilson Center), Michael Singh (Managing Director and Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Ray Takeyh (Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), and Tamara Cofman Wittes (Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution). Moderated by Aaron David Miller (Vice President for New Initiatives and Middle East Program Director, Wilson Center), with introductory remarks by Jane Harman (Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center).

There will be a live webcast of this event.

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     7. Turkey’s Early Elections | Wednesday, May 16 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | SETA Foundation | Register here |

On June 24, Turkey will hold its first presidential and parliamentary elections under the new presidential system that was adopted in the 2017 constitutional referendum. In the presidential race, several political parties have nominated their own candidates, while in the parliamentary elections, several parties have formed alliances to gain the majority in the legislature. The winner of the presidential election will form the first Turkish government under the new presidential system for the next five years. The parliamentary makeup will be of critical importance in the transition to the new system. Please join the SETA Foundation at Washington DC for a timely discussion on Turkey’s upcoming June elections, current coalitions, political party dynamics, and the future of Turkish politics. With speakers Ihsan Aktas, President, GENAR Research and Polling; Nebi Mis, Director, Domestic Policy, SETA Foundation; and Murat Yesiltas, Director, Security Policy, SETA Foundation; with moderator Kilic Bugra Kanat, Research Director, SETA Foundation.

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     8. The Risk of Interstate War(s) in the Middle East | Thursday, May 17 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Middle East Institute | Register here |

While armed nonstate actors and proxy militias have been grabbing most headlines in recent years, the risk of interstate war in the Middle East is rising at an alarming rate. Tensions between Israel and Iran have boiled over several times in recent weeks in Syria, risking a serious escalation between the two countries. Iranian-supplied missiles have been launched from Houthi-held areas in Yemen targeting Riyadh and other Saudi towns and cities, risking an escalation between the two regional powers. Tension also persists between the United States and Iran as the Trump administration moves away from the JCPOA. In Syria, U.S. and Russian forces are flying missions in a crowded air and military space; the risk of escalation there between the two superpowers also cannot be discounted. How high is the risk of interstate war in the Middle East? What are the dynamics of these various tension axes? How could the United States and other regional and international powers help avert such potential outbreaks? The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel featuring Martin Indyk of the Brookings Institution, Kenneth Pollack of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), MEI’s Bilal Y. Saab, Julianne Smith of the Center for New American Security (CNAS) to discuss these mounting tensions and how best to address them. MEI’s senior vice president for policy research and programs, Paul Salem, will moderate the discussion.

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     9. Decentralization in Tunisia — Empowering Towns, Engaging People | Thursday, May 17 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register here |

Tunisia’s first ever democratic local elections in May are a crucial step in the country’s efforts to devolve power from the national to the local level. In their latest paper, Decentralization in Tunisia: Empowering Towns, Engaging People, Carnegie Fellow Sarah Yerkes and Vice President for Studies Marwan Muasher argue that if done right, decentralization will both empower local actors and introduce a new political class outside of the country’s traditionally dominant political parties. Successful decentralization requires strong political will from central government officials, who must demonstrate their commitment to participatory local governance both on paper and in practice, and from local officials who must build trust with their constituents, provide opportunities for citizen engagement, and prevent the recreation of ineffective institutions at the local level. With the participation of Carnegie Senior Vice President for Studies Thomas Carothers and PBS NewsHour’s P.J. Tobia in the first session (10:05 – 10:45); Director of the Tunisian Institute of Elected Officials Elyès Ghanmi, independent consultant on local and international governance Laura J. Hogg, and programmes director at the Jasmine Foundation and researcher at Sciences Po Paris Intissar Kherigi with Sarah Yerkes and Marwan Muasher in the second session (10:50 – 12:15).

A light lunch will follow.

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    10. The Transatlantic Alliance and the Western Balkans | Thursday, May 17 | 10:30am – 12:30pm | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register here |

Amid a growing number of foreign policy rifts between the United States and the European Union, the Western Balkans remains one region where the new US administration has identified an opportunity for close cooperation with Brussels. As European political leaders convene in Sofia for the Western Balkan Summit, we will talk about the past and present challenges to transatlantic cooperation in the Western Balkans and how these might be overcome. As European political leaders convene in Sofia for the Western Balkan Summit, we will talk about the past and present challenges to transatlantic cooperation in the Western Balkans and how these might be overcome. The timing for such a discussion is critical, given the renewed secessionist threats in the region and the need for a joint US and EU response to grapple with this challenge. A conversation with Lord Paddy Ashdown, Member of the House of Lords and former High Representative and EU Special Representative to Bosnia and Herzegovina; Ms. Marsaili Fraser; former Head of the Political Department of the EU Special Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina; and Mr. James O’Brien, Vice Chair of Albright Stonebridge Group and former Special Presidential Envoy for the Balkans; moderated by Dr. Majda Ruge, Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins SAIS.

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     11. Politics and Economics in Putin’s Fourth Term | Friday, May 18 | 9:45am – 11:00am | Atlantic Council | Register here |

As Vladimir Putin begins an unprecedented fourth term as president of Russia, his country stands at a critical crossroads. With a volatile economy and an increasingly authoritarian government, the country is facing high levels of political and economic uncertainty. At this event, Vladimir Milov, Russian opposition politician and economist, will join a panel of US-based experts to discuss the political and economic future of Putin’s Russia. Featuring Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center Dr. Anders Åslund and David M. Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution Dr. Alina Polyakova, with moderation by Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center Ambassador John Herbst.

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    12. Can Inclusive Peace Processes Work? Strategies for Meeting Resistance to Inclusion | Friday, May 18 | 10:00am – 11:30am | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |

Too often, peace processes only include dueling parties — leaving women; religious, indigenous, and ethnic groups; youth; and survivors of violence excluded from critical discussions that shape the future landscape of a country. Yet, sidelining their voices often results in a resurgence of conflict and fails to achieve comprehensive or sustainable peace. Join the U.S. Institute of Peace and Conciliation Resources for a discussion on overcoming challenges to inclusive peace processes and negotiated settlements. The research draws on case studies and local perspectives with local partners from Colombia, Bougainville and Nepal, exploring how inclusion is negotiated in war to peace transitions, common barriers to and trade-offs between inclusion and stability, and types of external and internal support that have been effective. In three segments: Presentation of Findings with Zahbia Yousuf (Senior Advisor, Peace and Transition Process, Conciliation Resources) and Sophia Close (Senior Advisor, Gender and Peacebuilding, Conciliation Resources); Application and Experiences on the Ground with Deepak Thapa (Director, Social Science Baha; Kathmandu, Nepal) and Rosa Emilia Salamanca (Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Action; Bogota, Colombia); and Policy Implications with Esra Cuhadar (JR Senior Fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace) and Jennifer Marron (Peace Process Advisor, Bureau of Conflict Stabilization and Operations, Department of State). With moderator Rosarie Tucci (Director, Inclusive Societies, U.S. Institute of Peace) and introduction by Nancy Lindborg (President, U.S. Institute of Peace).

 

 

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