Tag: Turkey
Peace picks, December 2-6
After a week of Thanksgiving festivities, here are this week’s top events:
1. CHP’s Vision for Turkey: An Address by Chairman Kılıçdaroğlu
Monday, December 2 | 11:30am – 1:00pm
Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
On December 2, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), for an address on Turkey, its foreign policy and its relations with the United States. In his remarks, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will offer CHP’s vision for the future of Turkey with a particular focus on Turkish democracy and economics. He will also reflect on Turkey’s role in its neighborhood and offer thoughts on its transatlantic relations.
Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has served as the chair of the Republican People’s Party since May 2010. He was first elected in 2002 as a member of the Turkish Parliament for the Istanbul province. He was reelected as an MP in 2007 and served as CHP’s Group Vice President until declaring his candidacy for the leadership of the party. Prior to his political career, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu served in numerous high-ranking positions in the Turkish Ministry of Finance and the Social Security Organization.
Senior Fellow Ted Piccone, acting vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will introduce Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu. At the conclusion of his remarks, Brookings TUSIAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will take audience questions.
| Introduction |
| Ted Piccone Acting Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy The Brookings Institution |
| Moderator |
| Kemal Kirişci TUSIAD Senior Fellow and Director, Turkey Project The Brookings Institution |
| Featured Speaker |
| Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Chairman Republican People’s Party |
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
Last Friday at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Bülent Arinç discussed the work the Freedom and Development Party (FPD) has done for the democratic process in Turkey. Moderator Katherine Wilkens introduced DPM Arinç as being a founding member of the FDP and a key architect of government policies in Turkey.
Arinç began by praising the relationship that Turkey and the United States have as a model partnership and a strategic allegiance. He sees the United States as a leader in global politics, which is why Turkey sees the need to be attached to it.
He also praised the work that the FDP has done in Turkey and its success as a political party. FDP has been in power since 2002, with increasing success in general elections, local elections and referendum votes. Arinç believes it will be also be successful in local elections set to take place in early 2014. People are happy with the reforms and progress Turkey has made under the FDP. These include healthcare reforms, and he hopes the same for the US. The economy is growing at 2.5-3% a year. It was not affected by the 2008 global recession. The FDP has also created stability in the government administration, allowing for more fair and just representation.
While warning against politicians staying too long in government (quoting the Turkish proverb so that “your face doesn’t get old”), Arinç sees the FDP as playing an important role in Turkey’s democratization process. The political process opened up with the removal of the state security apparatus. The FDP has been running campaigns in languages other than Turkish so that anyone can enter the political process. He sees Turkey’s minority groups as adding to the country’s diversity, with equal citizenship rights. He also sees the value of conflicts within the democratic framework. Opposition to the ruling party is a good thing because it creates competitors, not enemies. There are currently 76 political parties in Turkey. They are indispensable to Turkey’s democracy.
Similarly, Arinç believes that peaceful demonstrations should be encouraged. Even a small voice should still be heard. When asked about the Gezi Park protests, he praised the protestors who came out during the first few days to oppose the building of a shopping mall in the park. He also apologized for the police’s unwarranted use of force against citizens. However, he condemned the rest of the protests for their use of violence, saying that illegal organizations were harming public property and people. He denounced those who made false accusations against politicians inciting hate, and BBC and CNN for exaggerating the protests in Gezi Park. But demonstrations are allowed everywhere in Turkey. The FDP is willing to accept both applause and criticism.
Wilkens asked Arinç about his thoughts on the role and importance of a free press in democracy. He recognized the importance of journalists and their role in relaying information to the people. He discussed provisions that the FDP has put in place that protect journalists so that they are able to freely do their jobs. He is aware of the criticisms Turkey has been facing regarding its crackdown, but he responded to these criticisms by claiming that journalists were not arrested for carrying out their profession but rather for ties to terrorist organizations.
Arinç painted a pretty picture of FDP openness and willingness to expand Turkey’s democracy, but to a good part of the audience this narrative clashed with actions of the government. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
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Deal, or no deal?
The nuclear talks with Iran are officially with the P5+1 (that’s the US, UK, France, Russia and China). But they are increasingly looking like a negotiation (at a distance) between Israel and Iran, with the P5+1 acting as mediators and looking for a mutually acceptable compromise. What are the odds of finding one? It depends on what we all call leverage. That comes from being able to walk away, because you’ve got a “best alternative to a negotiated agreement” (BATNA) that you prefer over the agreement on offer.
Iran’s BATNA is clear: it can continue its nuclear program, which entails continuing also to endure increasingly tight sanctions as well as the risk an Israeli or American attack. President Rouhani doesn’t like this option, because he has promised Iranians relief from sanctions, improved relations with the rest of the world, and an improved economy. Iranians are not interested in going to war. But Supreme Leader Khamenei can still veto any proposed agreement. There is every reason to believe he would do so if somehow his negotiators dared to bring home an agreement that completely dismantled Iran’s nuclear program, blocking it from any future enrichment (or reprocessing). Read more
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Peace picks, November 18-22
DC’s top events of the week:
1. Oil Security and the US Military Commitment to the Persian Gulf
Monday, November 18 | 9:00am – 2:30pm
George Washington University Elliott School, 1957 E Street NW, Lindner Family Commons Room 602
9:00-9:20: Introduction
Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
9:30-11:00: Threats to U.S. Oil Security in the Gulf: Past, Present and Future
Salim Yaqub, University of California-Santa Barbara
Thomas Lippman, Middle East Institute
Joshua Rovner, Southern Methodist University
Chair: Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
11:15-12:15: The Economic Stakes: Oil Shocks and Military Costs
Eugene Gholz, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin
Kenneth Vincent, George Washington University
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
12:45-2:15: Possibilities for U.S. Grand Strategy in the Persian Gulf
Daniel Byman, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Caitlin Talmadge, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Rosemary Kelanic, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
Chair: Charles Glaser, Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU
The U.S. strategic objective of protecting Persian Gulf oil has generated little controversy since the Gulf became a focus of U.S. military deployments over three decades ago. This may seem unsurprising given the widely-appreciated importance of oil to the global economy. Nevertheless, quite dramatic changes have occurred in the regional balance of power, the nature of security threats, and the global oil market since the U.S. made its commitment-raising the possibility that the U.S. role should be revisited. This conference examines two critical questions for U.S. grand strategy in the Gulf. First, should the United States continue to rely on military capabilities to preserve the flow of Persian Gulf oil? Second, if the U.S. security commitment remains strategically sound, what military posture should U.S. forces adopt? The conference panels examine the key rationales driving current U.S. policies, the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, and options for revising the U.S. military stance in the region.
Lunch will be served.
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Peace picks, November 11-15
The Federal government is closed Monday for Veterans Day but the rest of the week has lots of peace and war events. The Middle East Institute Conference (last item) is not to be missed:
1. How to Turn Russia Against Assad
Tuesday, November 12th, 2013
6:00pm
Rome Building, Room 806
1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20037
Samuel Charap
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, IISS
Jeremy Shapiro
Visiting Fellow in the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Chair: Dana Allin
Editor of Survival and Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, IISS
A light reception will follow
No RSVP Required
For More Information, Contact SAISEES@jhu.edu or events-washington@iiss.org
Samuel Charap is the Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies based in the IISS–US in Washington, DC. Prior to joining the Institute, Samuel was a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow at the US Department of State, serving as Senior Advisor to the Acting Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security and on the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff.
Jeremy Shapiro is a visiting fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. Prior to re-joining Brookings, he was a member of the U.S. State Department’s policy planning staff, where he advised the secretary of state on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He was also the senior advisor to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon, providing strategic guidance on a wide variety of U.S.-European foreign policy issues. Read more
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Maliki makes his case
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was in Washington last week to talk about Iraq’s problems and the future of US-Iraq relations. Maliki’s trip culminated on Friday, with a visit to the White House to meet with President Obama and Vice President Biden. On Thursday, Maliki spoke to a large audience at the United States Institute of Peace.
Iraq has experienced significant change since the United States withdrew its troops from the country in 2011. The economy has improved over the last few years, according to Maliki’s op-ed in the New York Times on Tuesday, with an overall expansion of 9.6 percent in 2011 and 10.5 percent in 2012. The nation’s oil production has increased by 50 percent since 2005. Iraq is on pace to become the world’s second largest energy exporter by 2030.
But the security situation is dire. The presence of extremist groups like Al-Qaeda in Iraq has increased with the seemingly interminable and volatile situation in Syria. Sectarian tension is on the rise, with increased instances of violence. Read more
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